Cross-impact Balance Research Articles

Pathways to a sustainable electricity sector in Kenya: Challenges and transformational factors

Which factors may enable a secure, affordable, and sustainable development of the Kenyan energy system? The present study aims to understand how the country's energy system could be structured in 2050, to unravel the main challenges, and to identify critical leverage points for policy action. To this end, we designed energy scenarios for Kenya using cross-impact balance and succession analysis, drawing extensively from expert judgments. The results highlight the importance of improving the quality of the grid, further reforming the electricity market structure, encouraging more competition, and promoting decentralization as the main leverage points for ensuring a secure and sustainable energy future.

Key factors in the future of oral and dental health in Iran using scenario writing approach

BackgroundOral and dental health can significantly impact individuals’ quality of life. The World Health Organization introduces oral health as one of the essential priorities of public health worldwide. Given the lack of studies on the future of oral and dental health in Iran, this study used a futures studies approach to identify the factors in oral and dental health in Iran through scenario writing.MethodsThis study was conducted in three stages including the scenario writing approach, qualitative methods, and exploratory future research. First, potential variables affecting future oral and dental health systems were extracted through interviews. The focus group discussion determined the uncertainty and importance of the variables. Then, the cross-impact balance matrix was imported into the Scenario Wizard software to identify the different states of the scenario generator variables and compatible scenarios were extracted.ResultsSeventy variables were extracted as key variables affecting the future of oral and dental health. Regarding the importance and uncertainty, seventeen variables scored higher and fell into policy and governance, economy and financing, social, service delivery, and technology, serving as five categories of scenario generators. Fifteen scenarios with weak consistency and three with strong consistency were obtained using the Cross-Impact Balance matrix in Scenario Wizard software.ConclusionThe probability of a pessimistic scenario where all five categories of the scenarios were in the worst possible state was higher due to its consistency. The government’s support policies and commitment to oral and dental health were two key factors in the future. Achieving an optimistic and favorable scenario for the future of the country’s oral and dental health system depends on the government and policymakers in the health sector adopting a positive attitude towards the role of oral and dental health services in improving societal health. In this scenario, the five categories of the scenario generators were in the best condition.

Brussels mobility in 2050: Participatory mixed-method scenario building to explore alternative futures

Mobility is deeply embedded in people’s everyday lives and fundamental in shaping society. Therefore, transport policy needs to be embedded in a well-grounded view of the future, while also being resilient to external shocks. One of the difficulties in ensuring the resilience of transportation systems is the large variety of factors of uncertainty that characterizes the field. Scenario building is one method that can address this issue by exploring alternative futures besides a most likely or desired one. But to increase the likelihood of translating exploratory scenarios into policy making, these should be developed in a participatory manner. One of the difficulties encountered when developing scenarios using quantitative methods is that these methods are often a black box for participants, while qualitative methods on their own can lack legitimacy. Mixed-method approaches can therefore be an interesting avenue for research to facilitate participation in transport scenario building, by providing a mathematical structuring of the scenarios, enriched with qualitative stakeholder input. In this paper, we explore how participation can be facilitated in mixed-method scenario building. We further elaborate on the combination of a systems dynamic-approach (cross-impact balance analysis) with creative workshops by testing three approaches to facilitate participation: a Delphi survey, personas, and the use of visual harvesting. We develop four scenarios for the future of urban mobility in Brussels, Belgium, by 2050, and report on the lessons learnt. We find that the use of Delphi as a stakeholder engagement method too rapidly closes down the scenario funnel when used for selecting factors of uncertainty. The use of personas allows for the development of engaging narratives, and could be helpful for the involvement of people less familiar with participatory exercises. Lastly, the use of visuals throughout the workshops was found to stimulate active discussion and resulted in a more transparent scenario development process, by increasing traceability.

Pathways for socio-economic system transitions expressed as a Markov chain.

Cross-impact balance (CIB) analysis provides a system-theoretical view of scenarios useful for investigating complex socio-economic systems. CIB can synthesize a variety of qualitative or quantitative inputs and return information suggestive of system evolution. Current software tools for CIB are limited to identifying system attractors as well as describing system evolution from only one scenario of initial conditions at a time. Through this study, we enhance CIB by developing and applying a method that considers all possible system evolutions as transitions in a Markov chain. We investigated a simple three-variable system (27 possible scenarios) of the demographic transition and were able to generally replicate the findings of traditional CIB. Through our experiments with four possible approaches to produce CIB Markov chains, we found that information about transition pathways is gained; however, information about system attractors may be lost. Through a comparison of model results to a recent literature review on human demography, we found that low-income countries are more likely to remain stuck in a demographic trap if economic development is not prioritized alongside educational gains. Future work could test our comparative methodological findings for systems comprised of more than three variables.

Resource exporter or R&D champion? Leverage points and transition pathways for the Chilean energy sector

The energy transition creates economic opportunities along renewable energy technology value chains. The benefits in terms of local value-added increase from resource extraction to manufacturing and are highest for R&D. Many countries hope to improve their position in renewable energy technology value chains, as they develop green industries and move towards a green knowledge economy. This study investigates which structural factors enable countries to upgrade their position in renewable energy technology value chains, based on Chile as a case study. Using formal scenario analysis, we model complex system dynamics in 31 alternative futures. In doing so, we combine a transdisciplinary approach to data gathering stemming from qualitative interviews and stakeholder focus groups with cross-impact balance (CIB), the formal scenario technique, to identify leverage points and pathways that can guide strategic long-term policies for the Chilean energy sector. We find that isolated policy interventions do not suffice to enable Chile to upgrade its value chain position. Instead, policy interventions need to simultaneously address the electricity market structure and knowledge transfer to trigger system dynamics that enable Chile to transform from a resource exporter to an R&D champion.

Macroeconomic impacts of energy communities and individual prosumers: an assessment of transformation pathways

BackgroundActive citizen participation, especially as collective prosumers in energy communities or as individual prosumers, is vital for a sustainable energy transition. As such, it is explicitly supported by European Union policy. It is the aim of policy-makers that a large proportion of the residential energy demand will be met in this way. At present, there is limited analysis on the macroeconomic impacts of such an increase in prosumers. In this study, we develop and apply an approach for assessing the macroeconomic impacts of transformation pathways, which depict potential developments of individual and collective prosumers.ResultsThe paper methodologically demonstrates how to macroeconomically assess scenarios and transformation pathways originating from cross-impact balance analyses by means of an input–output analysis. In particular, it is shown how qualitative data on future developments can be transformed into financial flows so as to enable an input–output analysis. Based on the assessment of two transformation pathways, our main findings suggest that there might be positive regional and national effects on net value added and employment as well as reductions in CO2 emissions. We find that the scale of the effects strongly depends on the spatial distribution of heterogeneous households and the underlying economic structure.ConclusionsOur study represents a methodological advancement by showing how scenarios and transformation pathways can be assessed in terms of their macroeconomic consequences. This study shows that energy communities and individual prosumers might generate positive effects on value added and on employment. Given that households fix their energy supply options for decades, political decisions to support the energy transition in the residential sector should be taken as soon as possible.

Building scenarios for urban mobility in 2030: The combination of cross-impact balance analysis with participatory stakeholder workshops

In recent years, scenarios have been increasingly used as a tool for helping decision makers deal with uncertainty, assess risks, enhance policy performance, expand creativity, and stimulate open discussion. In transport, scenario planning is an established method to help solve the mobility challenges of cities. In this paper, we propose a mixed-methods approach that combines cross-impact balance analysis with creative scenario planning workshops. CIB analysis was used to obtain raw scenarios that were enhanced with the output from creative workshops to obtain narratives and visuals to make the scenarios easily communicable. The approach was applied in five cities simultaneously. For each city, we developed three different scenarios for urban mobility by 2030. We found that developing the cross-impact matrix centrally and then adapting it to each city’s local context can significantly reduce the time needed for the analysis. In addition, the methodology employed can easily be adapted to the needs of local stakeholders. As it is a mix of quantitative and qualitative methods, it is easily understandable for stakeholders, allowing them to fully participate in the process. The creative outputs in the form of narratives and images have helped to create results that are easy to communicate with the stakeholders.

A conceptual methodology to screen and adopt circular business models in small and medium scale enterprises (SMEs): A case study on child safety seats as a product service system

While small and medium enterprises are already aware of the increasing benefits of resource efficiency, reducing waste, and closing material loops, the adoption of circular economy principles in small and medium enterprises is still nascent. Despite a large body of academic literature providing numerous definitions and business models to elucidate circular economy, these approaches lack systemic research from a small and medium enterprise's perspective and are often vague and overwhelming. Furthermore, small and medium enterprises lack financial and organizational resources to implement a (systemic) change to their already optimized business models. This paper addresses this knowledge gap by presenting a conceptual approach that not only serves as a decision-making tool and a possible starting point towards circular value creation, but also provides an initial estimation on how well forms of circularity can be achieved within the adapted business models. The developed methodology was applied to a complex product within the plastics sector. Starting with the product-disassembly-workshop, an in-depth analysis to identify various circular concepts was then conducted, using design thinking tools. The results are presented and summarized in the form of a decision tree analysis. Using a contradiction matrix and environment mapping tool, it was then attempted to narrow down the circular solution spectrum to a manageable level. To conclude, a cross impact balance analysis was applied to validate the identified business model scenarios. The presented methodology aims to show small and medium enterprises how to generate business model innovations systematically, narrow down the solution space in a structured manner, and how to evaluate the resultant solution options against each other and weigh their trade-offs. The tools and techniques used were chosen in such a way that they can be applied with as few resources and complexity as possible, and therefore can serve as a guidance for small and medium enterprises in their transition towards circular value creation.

Future analysis to define guidelines for Iran's e-commerce: scenario planning

E-commerce has created a new era in market competition according to speed, efficiency, cost reduction and utilising every opportunity. The present study was carried out to define the possible scenarios of Iran's e-commerce on the Vision of 2025. A sample of managers and experts was chosen. First, using a fuzzy Delphi method, ten key uncertainties were identified. Second, different possible states of key uncertainties were created the cross-impact balance analysis matrix. Third compatible scenarios were recognised by using Scenario Wizard software. The results showed that three scenarios were identified as follows: flourishing, realistic and bad luck. The most constructive scenario is called the flourishing scenario, the most feasible scenario is called the realistic scenario, and the defeatist scenario is the bad luck scenario. After analysing the identified scenarios, practical strategies were provided; they enable companies to reduce the unexpected consequences of future changes and prepare them to benefit from future opportunities. In an international context, developing countries with similar political and national barriers can benefit from these strategies.

Towards participatory cross-impact balance analysis: Leveraging morphological analysis for data collection in energy transition scenario workshops

This Perspective article presents a novel, participatory scenario development method for studying the energy transition. It shows how moving towards transdisciplinarity can inform formal scenario analysis and enhance modelling by engaging stakeholders and scientific communities to co-develop energy transition scenarios. The innovative approach combines participatory elements of morphological analysis with formal cross-impact balance analysis (CIB), and it was tested at a series of energy transition scenario workshops held in 2021 both virtually and in person. Focusing on the first workshop of the series, we present the resulting data collection strategy and critically reflect on the analytical potential of the approach. We highlight the advantage of CIB in grasping the complexity and the multi-scale nature of the energy transition, as it enables computing of how different driving forces interact. We also demonstrate that leveraging morphological analysis for data collection in participatory scenario workshops yields a more participatory approach to CIB. Some limitations notwithstanding, the insights from the scenario workshops following the novel approach suggest further avenues for improving the process of online participatory scenario methods. This holds significant potential for empirical research under the conditions of a global pandemic and for scenario analysis more generally.

Risk assessment framework for the supply of water during a crisis

A city's water supply system is often vulnerable to natural hazards and artificial threats. The provision of clean and healthy water is a main lifeline for victims in temporary shelters and remaining residents in the aftermath period. During a crisis, lack of an emergency water supply plan increases the number of casualties. The aim of this research was to develop a supply plan for emergency water during a disaster by introducing a comprehensive risk assessment. Software (Arc-GIS and Scenario Wizard) was used to prepare emergency plans and reduce casualties due to a natural disaster in Kermanshah city, Iran, as a case study. To achieve this, three phases were carried out. In the first phase, vulnerability and destruction scenarios were determined using cross-impact balance analysis based on descriptors and their interactive variables. In the second phase, risk zonation maps for drinking water supply were developed by using geographical data and superposing different layers. In the third phase, distribution maps were developed for three grades of support and supply centres, implemented for Kermanshah city with an earthquake considered as the main disruption event.

On the Future(s) of Energy Communities in the German Energy Transition: A Derivation of Transformation Pathways

Active participation of citizens in the sustainable energy transition—particularly in energy communities—is explicitly desired by the European Union and considered vital for a successful transformation of Europe’s energy system. Currently, energy communities, i.e., citizen-led groups generating energy from renewable sources can be found across Europe, though current numbers are small. However, it is expected that the majority of EU households will be active in some form in the generation of energy by 2050. In order to understand how such a development could come about, and if desired, how it could be ensured, we developed and applied a quasi-dynamic model using the Cross-Impact Balance (CIB) approach and with it analyzed and assessed such a transition in detail. Data for the CIB model was derived from case studies, interviews, three surveys including two discrete choice experiments, expert workshops, and complementary secondary data. A central consideration of the model is a differentiated representation of the heterogeneity of actors in society and their interactions. Main results obtained from the application of the model are possible transformation pathways of citizen participation in the energy transition of Germany. A key finding was that if current trends continue, a citizen-driven energy transition based on energy communities will unlikely be successful. We conclude that several framework conditions must change simultaneously from the status quo so that different social groups in society can be active in the generation of energy. These include changes such as the abolition of hindering regulations and the expansion of financial support schemes with a focus on lower socioeconomic groups. Furthermore, only in a combination of conducive social factors such as neighborhood cohesion and conducive social influence, as well as favorable economic conditions, can energy communities become an important player in Germany’s future energy system.

Future Financing Scenarios for Iran's Healthcare System.

The financing function within a health system is considered inherently complex, so it is of utmost importance to design a suitable future for this system given uncertainties and complexities of the environment. With regard to the current and future complicated conditions, health system financing is also likely to succeed if it can anticipate the impacts of effective factors in the future and further plan appropriate interventions ahead of time. Thus, the purpose of this study was to develop scenarios for the health system financing in Iran. This mixed-design research of exploratory future studies type was conducted using the scenario method. In this respect, the key variables were evaluated using a questionnaire from two aspects of importance and uncertainty as well as formation of a future studies group (focus group). Finally, sensitivity analysis was carried out through cross-impact balance (CIB) analysis using the Scenario Wizard (Version 4.31) software. A total of 25 factors were selected based on the type and the position of the variables (driving force, bi-dimensional, risk, secondary leverage or modifiable-to-secondary leverage) over the diameter of the MICMAC chart. Considering the degree of significance and uncertainty, eight variables including all four driving force variables (oil sales and economic blockade, leadership and advocacy, bureaucracy and corruption, and possibility of using information technology in providing services), as well as the variables of resource sustainability, natural disasters, regional security, and specialization culture were chosen. Then, five variables were finalized as the key changes that would create the scenario based on sensitivity analysis and final expert opinions. According to the defined conditions, 270 scenarios were developed, of which fourteen scenarios were identified as poorly adaptable and five cases as highly adaptable. The best scenario identified in this study based on the degree of adaptation included the use of massive technology and oil sales, mediocre economic conditions with high probability of occurrence, strong leadership and advocacy, high regional security, as well as bureaucracy and low corruption with medium probability of occurrence.

Designing synergetic and sustainable policy mixes - a methodology to address conflictive environmental issues

Environmental governance often requires fulfilling different objectives at the same time, as environmental but also economic and social objectives of different actors and on different scales. That means, it needs to address (potential) goal conflicts. This challenge of how to achieve policy coherence is currently discussed regarding the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). It also touches on questions of policy design in general, on how to avoid contradiction and foster synergies between interdependent policy tools. This paper presents a new interdisciplinary methodology to design synergetic and sustainable policy mixes. It contributes a new approach for policy design processes addressing goal conflicts of sustainable development. The methodology uses cross-impact balance analysis (CIB), a qualitative form of systems analysis: A policy-interaction model is built by iterating between desk research and expert consultation regarding different objectives, policies to achieve them, and directed interactions between these policies. Analyzing the model allows identifying alternative policy mixes, which optimize different objectives at the same time, are free of internal contradictions and use synergies between policies. The methodology provides easy operationalizations for synergy and consistency and allows assessing sustainability performance and robustness of policy mixes. The methodology is suitable for both ex post evaluation of status quo and ex ante evaluation of alternative policy mixes. The methodology is applied to the water management in the Lurín river basin, Peru. We argue that the approach is transferable to further environmental issues and to SDG interactions on the policy level and supports policy coherence for sustainable development.

Linking qualitative scenarios with quantitative energy models: knowledge integration in different methodological designs

BackgroundLinking qualitative scenarios with quantitative models is a common approach to integrate assumptions on possible future societal contexts into modeling. But reflection on how and to what degree knowledge is effectively integrated during this endeavor does not generally take place. In this paper, we reflect on the performance of a specific hybrid scenario approach (qualitative Cross-Impact Balance analysis, CIB, linked with quantitative energy models) concerning knowledge integration through 11 different process steps. In order to guide the scenario community in applying this approach, we reflect on general methodological features as well as different design options. We conceptualize different forms of interdisciplinary knowledge integration (compiling, combining and synthesizing) and analyze how and to what degree knowledge about society and uncertainty are integrated into scenario process and products. In addition, we discuss trade-offs regarding design choices and forms of knowledge integration.ResultsOn the basis of three case studies, we identify two general designs of linking which build on each other (basic and extended design) and which differ in essence regarding the balance of power between the CIB and the energy modeling. Ex post assessment of the form of interdisciplinary knowledge integration in each step revealed that specific method properties of CIB as well as the interaction with additional quantitative as well as specific qualitative methods foster distinct forms of knowledge integration. The specific roles assigned to CIB in the hybrid scenario process can also influence the form of knowledge integration.ConclusionsIn this study, we use a joint process scheme linking qualitative context scenarios with energy modeling. By applying our conceptualization of different forms of knowledge integration we analyze the designs’ respective potential for and respective effects on knowledge integration. Consequently, our findings can give guidance to those who are designing their own hybrid scenario processes. As this is an explorative study, it would be useful to further test our hypotheses in different hybrid scenario designs. Finally, we note that at some points in the process a more precise differentiation of three forms of knowledge integration would have been useful and propose to further differentiate and detail them in future research.

From causal loop diagrams to future scenarios: Using the cross-impact balance method to augment understanding of urban health in Latin America

Urban health is shaped by a system of factors spanning multiple levels and scales, and through a complex set of interactions. Building on causal loop diagrams developed via several group model building workshops, we apply the cross-impact balance (CIB) method to understand the strength and nature of the relationships between factors in the food and transportation system, and to identify possible future urban health scenarios (i.e., permutations of factor states that impact health in cities).We recruited 16 food and transportation system experts spanning private, academic, non-government, and policy sectors from six Latin American countries to complete an interviewer-assisted questionnaire. The questionnaire, which was pilot tested on six researchers, used a combination of questions and visual prompts to elicit participants’ perceptions about the bivariate relationships between 11 factors in the food and transportation system. Each participant answered questions related to a unique set of relationships within their domain of expertise.Using CIB analysis, we identified 21 plausible future scenarios for the system. In the baseline model, ‘healthy’ scenarios (with low chronic disease, high physical activity, and low consumption of highly processed foods) were characterized by high public transportation subsidies, low car use, high street safety, and high free time, illustrating the links between transportation, free time and dietary behaviors. In analyses of interventions, low car use, high public transport subsidies and high free time were associated with the highest proportion of factors in a healthful state and with high proportions of ‘healthy’ scenarios. High political will for social change also emerged as critically important in promoting healthy systems and urban health outcomes.The CIB method can play a novel role in augmenting understandings of complex urban systems by enabling insights into future scenarios that can be used alongside other approaches to guide urban health policy planning and action.

Challenges for Energy Transition in Poverty-Ridden Regions—The Case of Rural Mixteca, Mexico

This paper presents distinct scenario pathways and their storylines resulting from an analysis of interdependencies. We identified the main drivers of a proposed renewable energy transition in rural Mixteca-Puebla, Mexico. By analyzing the main factors involved in alleviating impoverished communities in the rural region, we show the varying degrees to which these drivers influence, support, or hinder a promising energy transition. A Cross-Impact Balance Analysis was conducted to explore the multiple inter-relationships among a set of conditions. This methodology allowed us to evaluate the relationships between social, political, cultural, and environmental variables. The main drivers were identified as clusters of several elements, in which the uncertainties in governance and the legal system trigger the inter-relationship of forces in the area. The focus of this paper is to show how the societal aspects affect the structural energy transformation and its capacity for adaptation in future trends envisioned for the area. This research contributes to the use of technological transformation as a means to alleviate poverty in a rural area. These outcomes give insights regarding the conditions to be considered, in respect to possible–encouraging, but also pessimistic pathways for the region in coming decades.

Using cause-effect graphs to elicit expert knowledge for cross-impact balance analysis

Cross-impact balance (CIB) analysis leverages expert knowledge pertaining to the nature and strength of relationships between components of a system to identify the most plausible future ‘scenarios’ of the system. These scenarios, also referred to as ‘storylines’, provide qualitative insights into how the state of one factor can either promote or restrict the future state of one or multiple other factors in the system. This paper presents a novel, visually oriented questionnaire developed to elicit expert knowledge about the relationships between key factors in a system, for the purpose of CIB analysis. The questionnaire requires experts to make selections from a series of standardized cause-effect graphical profiles that depict a range of linear and non-linear relationships between factor pairs. The questionnaire and the process of translating the graphical selections into data that can be used for CIB analysis is described using an applied example which focuses on urban health in Latin American cities.•A questionnaire featuring a set of standardized cause-effect profiles was developed.•Cause-effect profiles were used to elicit information about the strength of linear and non-linear bivariate relationships.•The questionnaire represents an intuitive visual means for collecting data required for the conduct of CIB analysis.

Construction Scenario for a Rural Tourism Value Chain: A Case Study from Rural China

Value chain is the value-added process resulting from the extension of rural tourism industry chain. Its direction of construction includes the extension of the vertical service field, and the combination of horizontal rural regional elements. The tourism value chain (TVC) is closely related to the transformation of the value elements of rural production, life, ecology, and culture, which helps to promote the high-quality development of rural tourism and the implementation of rural construction in China. Using Dalishu village as an example, this study applied a cross-impact balance analysis (CIB) to select the scenario of the rural TVC. The best scenario of TVC includes the basic value activities and auxiliary value activities of life, industry, ecology, society, and ecology. The optimal scenario results from selections that maximize the leading role of value elements. The scenario of the selected TVC reflects the personalized characteristics of the rural tourism destination, maximizing the leading role of key value elements, and advances the coupling and linkages between rural tourism and rural development.

Systemic Evaluation of the Effects of Regional Self-Supply Targets on the German Electricity System Using Consistent Scenarios and System Optimization

This paper analyses the effects of regional renewable electricity self-sufficiency targets on the power system in Germany. For this purpose, an interdisciplinary approach from social sciences and energy system modelling was chosen, which allows considering qualitative factors such as public acceptance or political stability. Following the concept of context scenarios, consistent raw scenarios are generated by a cross-impact balance analysis (CIB), and the scenarios are quantified by the unit commitment and expansion cost minimisation model ENTIGRIS considering power plants, storages, and the electricity grid. This approach enables an understanding of the system framework conditions and their relationships and allows the combination of qualitative and quantitative scenario descriptors. The most important factors for setting regional self-sufficiency targets were identified through interviews. The main system effects identified are: The regional distribution of generation capacities is strongly influenced by a more demand-oriented installation of generation capacities. This leads to less grid reinforcement, but higher rates of curtailment. In all scenarios, higher utilization of the PV roof potential instead of ground mounted could be observed. The total system costs are increasing only slightly with regional self-supply targets. In general, it was found that the influence of regional self-sufficiency targets is less pronounced in scenarios that already achieve high national RES shares than in scenarios that achieve lower shares, since technology, storage and grid expansion measures are necessary anyway to achieve high RES shares. Overall, the effects here are rather small and the regional objective is not associated with major disadvantages for the system. In a future characterised by stagnation, the system can benefit from regional targeting, as higher renewable shares and lower costs can result. The main conclusion therefore is that regional target setting seem to be beneficial for the overall power system, in terms of system cost, national RE share, acceptance and CO2-emissions.