Cross-country Data Research Articles

Inflation and income inequality in an open-economy growth model with liquidity constraints on R&D

This study presents a framework to understand the relationship between inflation and income inequality in an open-economy Schumpeterian growth model with heterogeneous households, firm-level innovation, and cash-in-advance constraints on R&D investment. We show that the global real interest rate channel can play a key role in defining this relationship. In smaller economies that have negligible impacts on the global interest rate, income inequality is likely to exacerbate as inflation rates rise. In contrast, for larger economies that can significantly affect the global interest rate, inflation and income inequality may demonstrate a U-shaped relationship. These theoretical predictions are supported by the quantitative analysis in a model calibrated to the economies of the US and the eurozone, as well as empirical estimates using cross-country data.

Labor migration, remittances, and the economy in the Gulf Cooperation Council region

The massive increase in labor migration to the Middle East during the past three decades has rivaled its historical trends bound to the West. This paper assesses how this growing trend of migration may have helped shape the economic structure and performance across the member countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council. Findings from a descriptive and time series regression analysis of the limited cross-country data show that the experience with labor migration and its linkage with other aspects of the economy are varied. The migration trend coinciding with increasing personal remittances attests to the competitive demand for foreign labor. While labor migration shows mixed association with the key aspects of the economy, the stock of migrant population is negatively associated with economic growth. Albeit seemingly contradictory, the insights from this six-country analysis covering the periods since 1990 are useful to understand the complex nature of relationship between labor migration and economic structure and performance in the region.

Does the digital economy improve female employment? A cross-country panel data analysis

The digital economy has had an impact on the female employment rate over time. Currently, the researchers are more interested in investigating the impacts of the digital economy by focusing on its various aspects of female employment. The current study is motivated by this renewed interest to investigate the impact of the digital economy on female employment rates in Asian Developing Countries from 1990 to 2021. The digital economy is measured by several indicators such as fixed telephone subscriptions, fixed broadband subscriptions, mobile phone subscriptions, secure internet servers, and internet users. The Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PARDL) model is used for analysis that reveals a positive relationship between female employment rates and the digital economy in both the short and long run. The control variables/factors, Education and GDP, also showed positive relationships with female employment. We suggest that governments prioritize funding for digital infrastructure and encourage fair access to technology, especially for women, based on our study. Furthermore, the positive effects of the digital economy on female employment can be strengthened through focused policy interventions, such as offering financial incentives to companies that hire and train women in digital skills. By utilizing these tactics, policymakers can guarantee that women are prepared to take advantage of the chances brought about by the quickly changing digital landscape, promoting gender equality and inclusive economic growth throughout Asian developing nations.

Financial inclusion, competition and financial stability: New evidence from developing economies

This study utilizes cross-country data from 2002 to 2019 from 60 selected developing countries to explore the impact of competition and financial inclusion on financial stability. Employing the system GMM estimator, compelling evidence is revealed, highlighting a number of key findings. Firstly, it is observed that financial inclusion has a weakening effect on financial stability within developing countries. Conversely, competition among these nations demonstrates a significant capacity to bolster financial stability. Additionally, the study underscores the pivotal role of financial development, identifying it as a primary driver that enables financial inclusion to positively influence financial stability within developing nations. Furthermore, the introduction of the square term of financial inclusion yields noteworthy insights, revealing a nonlinear relationship. Specifically, the findings suggest that strategic investments in the financial inclusion of developing countries have the potential to enhance financial stability up to a certain threshold. Therefore, for emerging economies seeking to fortify their financial stability, prioritizing efforts to augment financial inclusion is imperative. Over the long term, such endeavors have the potential to yield tangible improvements in financial stability.In conclusion, the research offers valuable policy implications. These include recommendations aimed at fostering greater financial inclusion within developing economies as a means of bolstering overall financial stability. By heeding these suggestions and implementing targeted policies, policymakers can work towards cultivating a more resilient and robust financial landscape within their respective nations.

Bridging the digital divide: the impact of technological innovation on income inequality and human interactions

This study seeks to understand the nuanced relationship between technological innovation and income inequality with an emphasis on the broader implications of this interplay on human–technology interactions in diverse socioeconomic settings. Using cross-country panel data from 59 nations (31 developed and 28 developing) from 1995 to 2020, the study employed the common correlated effect mean group (CCEMG) estimator. The robustness of our findings was validated using the augmented mean group (AMG) estimator and the panel causality test. The results indicate that technological innovation, while heralded for its potential to bridge communication and operational gaps, inadvertently exacerbates income disparities, with a pronounced effect in developed economies. Moreover, interactions between technological innovation and variables such as economic growth, globalisation and export trade introduce additional complexities, including both buffering and acceleration effects on the primary relationship. These findings shed light on the double-edged nature of technological advancements, underscoring the need for informed policy-making that harnesses the benefits of innovation while mitigating its unintended socioeconomic consequences. The study sets the stage for domain-specific explorations such as in education, public health and business. It also invites interdisciplinary discourse on the ethical and behavioural dimensions of technology adoption, especially user experiences and societal outcomes.

How does political instability affect renewable energy innovation?

This paper investigates how political instability affects the development of renewable energy innovation (REI) through empirical analysis of cross-country data from 60 countries over the period of 2002–2020. The results show that political instability has a negative impact on renewable energy innovation, particularly in countries with a robust renewable energy technology base. Specifically, every single type of renewable energy technology has decreased in response to political instability, with wind and solar being the most affected. We also find the non-linearity of such impact with different levels of government corruption, democracy, and military expenditure based on the threshold effect analysis. Therefore, governance quality matters when confronting political instability. Further analysis indicates that economic growth, technological development, and public R&D for renewable energy technologies are the mediating channels. These results provide significant policy implications and a better understanding of national innovation activities in renewable energy.

Prevalence of school related violence in seven countries: A cross-sectional survey.

Violence against children in schools harms the affected children, limits their learning and educational attainment, and extends its harms to families and the broader communities. However, to date, comparable cross-country data on violence against children in schools has not been available. We utilize the Violence Against Children and Youth Surveys (VACS) to estimate school-related violence against children in seven countries (Honduras, Kenya, Malawi, Nigeria, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia). Leveraging the unique comparability of the surveys, we are able to estimate both physical and sexual violence experienced in childhood and adolescence among youth aged 13-24. Where possible, we also disaggregate by gender and perpetrator type. Overall, within our sample seven countries, we find that 12.11-44.63% of females and 14.28-53.85% of males experienced at least one form of violence. Males experience higher levels of school-related violence and a significant portion of this is due to experiencing physical violence perpetrated by male classmates.

Tourism and Economic Growth: Evidence from Cross-Country Data with Policy Insights

Tourism and Economic Growth: Evidence from Cross-Country Data with Policy Insights

How does climate change risk affect energy poverty? International evidence.

Based on cross-country data from 2002 to 2019, we explore the impact of climate change risk (CCR) on energy poverty (EP), and the moderating role in the CCR-EP nexus is also discussed. The empirical results suggest that CCR can exacerbate EP, especially for rural areas. Moderating effect analysis shows that financial development, technological innovation, and adaptation readiness can modify the negative impacts of CCR on EP to some extent. Moreover, the impact of CCR on EP is heterogeneous, demonstrating that CCR is more likely to exacerbate EP in countries with low economic development, low economic freedom, high carbon intensity, and the Africa region. Our findings emphasize the challenge of balancing EP alleviation with climate change response and provide the policy guidance to promote coordinated development of CCR management and energy supply security.

Multicountry Time-Varying Taylor Rule: Modeling Unconventional Monetary Policies and Bond Premiums

In the post-financial-crisis era, advanced economies have increasingly adopted unconventional monetary policies such as zero interest rate policy, negative interest rate policy, forward guidance communication, and international coordination policies. Consequently, the traditional Taylor rule has lost some of its explanatory power. This analysis extends the Taylor rule from a single-country to a multicountry analysis using cross-country panel data, incorporating nonmacro factors and stationary correlation in the diffusion matrix for a dynamic factor analysis, specifically covering the Group of Seven countries with datasets compiled by Bloomberg L.P. for the period 1999–2022. This approach comprehensively models these unconventional monetary policies, demonstrating greater statistical validity than existing models. Notably, the model extracts the impact of zero interest rate policy and negative interest rate policy as nonmacro factors and presents the high correlation of residuals as indicative of international coordination among central banks. Additionally, by interpreting the discrepancy between the Taylor rule and actual rate as unintended interest rate fluctuations by central banks, the study posits that interest rates will eventually return to the central bank’s intended fair value. The model’s estimation errors could be treated akin to bond value factors in global risk premia.

ESG (Environment, Social, and Governance) development: What is the role of financial development at the global level?

Financial intermediation theories and empirical research highlight the importance of financial sector development (FSD) for industrial development and economic growth. FSD contributes positively to economic growth and poverty alleviation by channeling excess resources from savers to borrowers. However, less is known about the impact of FSD on environmental,social, and governance (ESG) performance. This study examines the impact of FSD on ESG performance globally, utilizing cross-country data from 2000 to 2019. Our analysis shows that country-level financial sector development positively and significantly influences aggregate ESG performance as well as its individual components (Environment, Social, and Governance). These results remain consistent across various proxies and model specifications. The findings offer significant insights for policymakers and stakeholders, identifying financial development as a catalyst for promoting ESG performance worldwide.

Global Managers, Local Workers: Wage Setting inside a Multinational Firm

How are wages set within a multinational firm? Combining cross-country data on wages and labor regulations with personnel records of a large multinational firm, I find that wage setting depends on the rank of the employee in the firm hierarchy. For managers, wages are set by the headquarters regardless of local labor market conditions. For factory workers, wages are adjusted according to country-specific wages and labor regulations. These results suggest that the multinational's internal labor market shields managers from changes in external market conditions, while the firm adapts to local labor markets for factory workers.

Slanted-L Phillips Curve

A slanted-L curve is well-suited to represent the nonlinearity of the celebrated Phillips curve. We show this using cross-country data of major industrialized economies since 2009, including the inflationary surge of the 2020s. At high unemployment rates, an increase in demand reduces unemployment without creating strong inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, supply shocks have a muted effect. At sufficiently low unemployment, there is a labor shortage, so that the economy is at full capacity. Then, higher demand is inflationary and supply shocks are amplified. We derive a model of a slanted-L curve.

How much a dollar cost: Currency hierarchy as a driver of ecologically unequal exchange

Asymmetric transfers of biophysical resources from the Global South to the North are a key obstacle to sustainable development. The underlying causal drivers of this ‘ecologically unequal exchange’ are not well understood. This paper accounts for the causal role of hierarchy between currencies as one driver of ecologically unequal exchange. Drawing on dependency theory, I propose testable hypotheses that explain why countries that issue internationally acceptable currencies create net inflows of embodied labour, land, energy, raw materials, and carbon from countries whose currencies lack international acceptability: Countries with lower-ranking currencies face higher interest rates, which constrain their policy space, drive income outflows, and necessitate resource exports. Such countries also tend to have lower price levels (measured as the ratio between exchange rates and purchasing power parity rates) because their currencies are not demanded internationally, resulting in reduced dollar income per exported resource. To test these hypotheses, I use a novel categorical operationalization of currency hierarchy. I compare different observable correlations to the theoretical correlations implied by the proposed hypotheses, and test multiple regression models against cross-country data. Overall, the results are consistent with the hypotheses. Considering alternative explanations, the conclusion seems justified that currency hierarchy is a significant driver of ecologically unequal exchange, and that this mechanism operates specifically through cross-country divergences in interest rates and exchange rates. In short, the monetary cost of a dollar impacts the biophysical cost of a dollar.

Climate change adaptation and smallholder farmers welfare: Empirical evidence from the Sahelian Region of West Africa

Global climate change has threatened sustainable agricultural growth over the years, severely affecting food sufficiency and the livelihood of farmers. The Climate-Smart Agricultural Technologies (CSAT), as a form of adaptation, offer pathways for mitigating the negative effect of climate change on crop producers in developing countries. This study uses cross-country (Mali and Niger) cross-sectional data to examine the welfare (proxied by crop sales revenue and income) impact of multiple adoptions of CSAT on smallholder farm households. To control for potential endogeneity that leads to bias estimates, we employ the multinomial endogenous treatment effect (METE) model, complemented with the inverse probability weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) for the analysis. The result reveals that household (education, location, and assets) and plot (plot size, plot topography, and soil fertility) characteristics, institutional factors (farmer-based organization, access to formal credit, and extension service) and crop disease shock significantly influence different combinations of CSAT adoption. The impact estimates show that adopting joint combinations of CSAT leads to higher crop sales revenue and income among the farmers in most cases. These findings suggest that the adoption of CSAT as a package should be encouraged and disseminated in the West Africa Sahel region. Moreover, some sociodemographic and institutional factors such as education, credit access, farmer-based organizations, and extension services could be strengthened for easy and rapid adoption of CSAT by smallholder farmers, which subsequently improves their economic welfare.

A rationale for the Right-to-Development climate policy stance?

We present a formal model that analyzes the trade-offs between environmental policy and economic growth in a developing economy. The adoption of restrictive environmental policies limits the use of abundant fossil energy resources, which may slow down economic development and thus violate the Right-to-Development. If faster economic growth allows a country to grow out of pollution sooner, less stringent policies are good for growth and even for the environment, having adopted a long-term horizon. Accounting for a ceiling on cumulative emissions can reinforce the argument by providing an additional rationale to phase out pollution. One assumption is crucial for the argument to hold: polluting fossil energy is an essential input over the early phase of economic development, but not in the later phases. Such a discontinuity could result from structural change. We provide empirical evidence for the plausibility of a discontinuity in the elasticity of carbon dioxide emissions with respect to aggregate output, using cross country data, even if it does not appear to be as strong as assumed in the model economy.

The Impact of E-Government on the New Generation Productive Capacities: Evidence from Cross-Country Data

The New Generation Productive Capacity Index (PCI) and the E-Government Development Index (EGDI) are increasingly used in various economies. Therefore, can e-government contribute to the continuous development of the new generation of productive capacity? Focusing on this important issue, this paper systematically examines the mechanism of the impact of e-government on the new generation of productive capacity and tests it using relevant data from major global economies. Firstly, this paper conducts regression analysis using the panel fixed-effects model, and the results show that e-government has a positive facilitating effect on the new generation of productive capacity. Secondly, the development of e-government will directly reduce the time, procedural, and monetary costs for enterprises and individuals to obtain government services, thereby promoting the development of production capacity. Finally, the specific changes in the structure of social expenditures are that government education expenditures and general expenditures will increase, but total government expenditures and household expenditures will not be affected by the construction of e-government. The research contribution of this paper is mainly reflected in the following three aspects: first, in terms of research perspectives, this paper extends the research on e-government’s ability to improve the efficiency of governments and organizations in handling affairs and its impact on the productive capacity of a society. Second, it contributes to the theory on the topic of e-government. This paper proposes a general equilibrium model to reveal the impact of e-government construction on a government and the public, and to more comprehensively reveal the impact mechanism of e-government construction in the whole economy. Third, this paper contributes empirical evidence. This paper utilizes the data of the major economies around the world to reveal the mutual influence between the construction of e-government and the new generation of productive capacity, and then effectively proves the specific impact of e-government on governments, enterprises, and individuals through the test of cost mechanism and financial mechanism. Different from the existing literature, this paper focuses on the impact of e-government on the new generation of productive capacity, revealing that e-government construction does not increase the financial burden on governments but reduces the burden on firms and individuals, thus providing new insights into the productivity effects of e-government development.

Income, growth, and democracy looking for the main causal directions in the nexus

The development of the political system of countries is noisy, but in the longer run a strong relation to the economy emerges in the cross-country data for income, growth, and the main democracy indices. Two main theories explain these relations: (α) starts from the strong correlation between income and democracy, seeing income as the causal variable. It is the democratic transition, which is the political part of the theory of the grand transition. (β) starts from the much weaker correlation between democracy and economic growth, seeing democracy as the causal variable. This is a part of the primacy-of-institutions theory, where the political system is a key institution. The discussion needs (λ) a link-relation between growth and income. It connects the (α) and (β) theories, so that one may explain the other. The analysis looks at all six possible univariate relations between the three variables using kernel regressions on a large, unified data set. This method gives a clear picture. The strong α-relation can indeed explain the weak β-relation as spurious, but the weak β-relation predicts that the α-relation is very weak. Thus, (α) encompasses (β), but not vice versa.

The influence of Fintech on Financial Inclusion: An International Study

The digital transformation supported by Fintech firms is rapidly transforming the nature and the shape of the financial markets all over the world, especially after the Covid-19 outbreak and the recent pandemic that have accelerated the implementation and development of these technologies. This disruption on the financial markets is leading to changes in different processes, products and services. Nevertheless, it is argued that the importance of the effect of Fintech is linked to two main factors: including the individuals left out by the financial markets, thus increasing financial inclusion, and benefiting from the decreased trust in the banks. Consequently, we find it valuable to study the relationship between Fintech and financial inclusion. We claim that it is beneficial to study the effect of Fintechs on two different types of financial inclusion, savings and credit, to be able to determine if there will be different or similar consequences. We hypothesize that Fintechs have a positive effect on the inclusion by savings and also a favorable impact on the inclusion by credit. Using cross country data from the World Bank related to the financial inclusion and a Fintech index “Global Fintech index2020”, including the rankings and scores of 65 countries in which more than 7,000 Fintech companies, we find that Fintech is associated with greater financial inclusion.

Government, taxation and economic complexity

ABSTRACT This paper investigates the relationship between tax complexity, economic complexity, and government size. The findings are obtained through cross-country panel data and two-way fixed effects regressions, and reveal a nuanced connection: under small (large) government scales, increased tax complexity is associated with greater (smaller) economic sophistication. This suggests that tax complexity’s positive and negative aspects vary depending on the government conditions provided to the economy.