Crop Production Forecasts Research Articles

Comparison of Agricultural Forecasts with Actual Data

So far, little has been said regarding the accuracy of forecasting given by the Ministry of Agriculture and Water (MAW). Saudi Arabia. Measures of accuracy are quite useful in comparing several methods of sampling or analysis. A comparison of forecasts with actual data gives us a measure of accuracy. In fact, a current evaluation of the accuracy of crop forecasts appears useful since government agencies, agribusiness firms, and farmers make decisions involving millions of riyals annually on the basis of the forecast, and deficiencies in the forecasts may cause undesirable effects on plans and resource allocation. The present research examines the accuracy of 255 MAW crop area and production forecasts for wheat, barley, tomato, watermelons, palm dates, grapes, chicken, sheep, and camel for the period 1400-1416 H (i.e. 1979-1995G). The study tested the difference between actual and forecast estimates. The results of this study provide useful information about decision making in crop (animal) forecasting procedures to meet users requirements.

Study of soil type ‐ phytomass relationships using NOAA‐AVHRR data

The NOAA‐AVHRR based Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) has been used to study the relationship of soil type ‐ phytomass development in arid and semi‐arid tropics of India. The relationship between soil type and seasonal vegetation development can be useful in hydrological modelling and crop production forecasting. Andhra Pradesh, a peninsular state of India has been selected as study area and maps of soils, land use, rainfall and temperature were digitized for generation of database using PC based IDRISI‐GIS software package. The NDVI images comprising of five data sets beginning from May, 1990 to March, 1991 were also registered with GIS data base layers and soil ‐ phytomass relationship windows were generated from different vegetation types in various soil units. The results showed the influence of soil type on phytomass development at a high confidence level for both cropped and forested areas in arid and semi‐arid regions. Seasonal NDVI variations of Anantapur (arid), Nizamabad (semi‐arid) and East Godavari (sub‐humid) districts shows a close relationship between rainfall and NDVI.

Using NOAA AVHRR and Landsat TM to estimate rice area year-by-year

Remote sensing has been widely used to estimate crop area and production. Forecasting the crop area year-by-year is the key step to realizing crop production forecasting. In this letter, a methodology to calculate rice area using NOAA AVHRR and Landsat TM data is introduced. The rice area in 1992 was estimated using Landsat TM data. 'Rice' pixels in 1992 and 1994 were calculated and the rice area change trend determined using NOAA AVHRR data for the two years. With a linear statistical model, the rice area of 1994 was forecast. Its accuracy was 84.5 per cent compared to the data released by the Agricultural Investigation Team(AIT) of Hubei province. The same method was applied to estimate the rice area of 1995. The accuracy was 91.6 per cent compared with AIT data.

Spectral reflectance of dehydrating leaves: Measurements and modelling

Remotely sensed measurements at optical wavelengths may provide information on crop water status and increase the accuracy of crop production forecasts. Previous research has shown that canopy spectral response to water stress is attributable to change in leaf water content, canopy structure and soil moisture. This experiment was designed to study leaf spectral response resulting from changes in leaf water content and to evaluate the use of a radiative transfer model for predicting the spectral behaviour of the leaf. The difference between measured and modelled reflectance increased as leaf water content decreased and it was hypothesized that this may be due to a change in leaf internal structure that was unaccounted for by the model.

Irrigation management in Arizona using satellites and airplanes

Agriculture has long been promoted as a prime beneficiary of remotely sensed data and satellite data are now routinely used in crop production forecasts and for resource surveys. However the potential for using satellite data for irrigation management has not been realized. An experiment was conducted at the Maricopa Agricultural Center, Arizona, to test the feasibility of using satellite and aircraft data for crop monitoring and irrigation management. This experiment identified several shortcomings of present satellite systems with respect to providing timely information for irrigation management. On the other hand, a preliminary evaluation of aircraft data showed some potential for application to irrigation scheduling. A simple cost/benefit analysis suggested that profits could be achieved through the communal use of remotely sensed information from both satellites and aircraft in moderate-size irrigation districts.

Assessing the sustainability of agricultural land in Botswana and Sierra Leone

AbstractLand degradation processes, such as soil erosion, which threaten the sustainability of agricultural production have been studied for many years. While research progresses on the processes, little advance has been ade on translating results into terms which can be used directly in the design of appropriate and economically justified forms of soil conservation and land husbandry.Research by the authors has shown how soil erosion affects the potential of land to produce crops. Simple models have been developed which provide a first approximation of the impact of soil erosion on future production, to be used as a baseline against which the benefits of soil conservation can be compared. The concepts of soil life and residual suitability have been developed as a measure of the sustainability of the production system considered. In this paper a simple experimental technique to derive the future production and the residual suitability of land is proposed.The method is based on the principle of sequential testing and uses a simple graphical technique to translate information on production and erosion into a crop production forecast. The soil life or residual suitability of land is derived from the minimum allowable crop production which depends on socio‐economic criteria. In case the minimum allowable production level cannot be reliably estimated, the concept of production ‘half‐life’ is introduced as a relative measure of sustainability. The method and its applications are illustrated using examples from Botswana and Sierra Leone.

The 1935 Census: An Appraisal from the Viewpoint of Crop Estimates

The Crop Reporting Board of the United States Department of Agriculture is specifically charged by law with the function and duty of recording the production of agricultural products in the United States. This function and duty involves also the determination of the components of production, such as acreage planted, acreage harvested, yield per acre, numbers of livestock on hand, birth rates and gain in weight of livestock, milk per cow, and eggs per hen. From the beginning the board and its predecessors had a mandate to report the progress of crops dur, ing the growing season. These were the genesis and forerunner of the present crop production forecasts. The predecessors of the board also felt the need of an evaluation of production and for this purpose at an early date began to report prices as of December 1 of each year. Later, the need of a more adequate evaluation led Mr. Nat C. Murray to initiate in 1909 the series of monthly price reports. Still later we find the need for a measure of return on income from farming, expressing itself in the Gross Farm Value reports begun in 1912 under the direction of Mr. George K. Holmes. As developed to date in the Income Reports of the Department, there is entailed the determination of the utilization of agricultural commodities. To round out the picture of information needed by farmers in making production and marketing plans, timely reports are issued on intentions to plant, pig surveys, upon stocks on hand, wage rates, farm employment, and other miscellaneous subjects. 'Thus, the field of the Crop Reporting Board begins with farmers' seeding and breeding plans and follows through to record the net results as cash in their pockets. In pursuing this quest on far-flung fronts for some 79 crops and 13 livestock items, the board has available some half million of federal funds and the cooperative contributions by state agencies of some $140,000.00. Naturally, its facilities for establishing absolute measures are limited. Many such measures, as railroad shipments, come second hand. Primary counts are limited to those secured from cooperative state agencies through assessors and to summations of processed commodities centralized in a few hands, such as sugar cane, sugar beets, and rice.