Critical Elections Research Articles

Did the New Deal solidify the 1932 Democratic realignment?

The critical election of 1932 represented a turning point in the future electoral successes of the Democrats and Republicans for over three decades. This paper seeks to measure the importance of the New Deal in facilitating the Democrats' control of the federal government well into the 1960s. We test whether long-differences in the county-level electoral support for Democratic presidential candidates after the 1930s can be attributed to New Deal interventions into local economies. We also investigate more narrowly whether voters rewarded Roosevelt from 1932 to 1936 and from 1936 to 1940 for his efforts to stimulate depressed local economies. Our instrumental variable estimates indicate that increasing a county's per capita New Deal relief and public works spending from nothing to the sample mean ($145) would have increased the long-run support for the Democratic party by 2 to 2.5 percentage points. We further find that the long-run shift toward the Democratic party after 1928 was not a function of the Roosevelt landslide victory in 1932. Roosevelt's ability to win over voters during the 1936 and 1940 elections with New Deal spending, however, did matter for the long-term.

Estabilidad y cambio del voto por la derecha en Chile a la luz de las elecciones presidenciales del 2009

The analysis of the election results in Chile which put an end to the Concertation governments and the arrival to power of the center-right Coalition for Change shows the absence of a general realignment of the Chilean voter. This is relevant not only to explain Sebastian Piñera’s victory but also to understand the dynamic of electoral stability and change in the post-transitional Chilean democracy. From the analysis of the electoral results obtained at the coalition level, the present article demonstrates that one of the main characteristics of the electoral process in the recovered democracy has been the stability of the Chilean voter; although the 2009-2010 elections represented the end of 20 years of predominance of the center-left coalition and alternance in power, from a theoretical point of view they are “normal” and not “critical elections”, following Converse and V.O. Key’s nomenclature. Finally, conclusions show that it is not possible to talk of an electoral split or cataclysm, neither of major readjustments of the power relationships in the Chilean political system, as it is reflected by the Congress composition.

The Deadlocked Election of 1800: Jefferson, Burr and the Union in the Balance (review)

The Deadlocked Election of 1800: Jefferson, Burr and the in the Balance. By James Roger Sharp. (Lawrence, KS: University of Kansas Press, 2010. Pp. 256; 8 ill. Cloth, $34.95.)Reviewed by Andrew W. RobertsonThe hundredth anniversary of the election of 1800 launched a veritable cottage industry of books on the subject.1 Nothing concentrates the mind on past events better than their re-enactment, and in many of these works, the election of 2000 looms as an all-encompassing comparison. For James Roger Sharp, however, the informative parallel to the election of 1800 is not Bush v. Gore but the election of Abraham Lincoln in 1860. Sharp calls these the two most critical elections in American history, because each the potential for destroying the Union (169).Sharp shows us that, if the election of 1860 brought on civil war, the election of 1800 could easily have had a similarly ominous result for the survival of the Union: an extra-constitutional solution to a manufactured crisis. Only a dozen years into the second U.S. constitutional regime, the survival of the was nearly as imperiled by boardinghouse intrigues in the new capital as it was by armed rebellion sixty years later.Sharp comes to this project very well qualified to write about the political background of this critical election. Sharp's earlier work, American Politics in the Early Republic, is an erudite, eminently readable narrative history on the politics of the 1790s.2 Because Sharp is so well versed in the political context, he brings this era to life. Refreshingly, he shies away from easy parallels to present-day politics. From Sharp we learn that late eighteenth-century politics was about both personality and principle. He reveals to us the rivalries and insecurities of brilliant, ambitious men like Jefferson and Hamilton without neglecting their ideological differences or their roles as creators and managers of mass-based movements, the forerunners of political parties. Sharp also describes what he sees as the countervailing, competing and antithetical political philosophies of the federal era: the democratic and egalitarian popular spirit of the American Revolution versus the longstanding belief in classical republicanism that assumed a disinterested elite, who would serve a unified public interest (17).Sharp explains in vivid detail the dramatic oscillations in public support between the Federalists and Republicans in the late 1 790s. Here the author shows himself to be the master of the telling details of both state and national politics. In congressional elections and many contests for governor, the Republicans and Federalists were already engaged in a full-scale effort to mobilize as many of their voters as possible and get them to the polls. Sharp writes quite compellingly about the details of these increasingly democratic elections. He is very well informed about congressional and local elections, frequently citing the voting data collected by Philip Lampi at the American Antiquarian Society. On the other hand, as Sharp makes quite apparent, both parties increasingly attempted to restrict choice in presidential elections. In 1796, eight of the fifteen states provided for election of presidential electors. By 1800 only five of fifteen states had contests for electors. Among the states that decided to change the rules were Massachusetts, which feared losing electoral votes to Jefferson in Maine, and Virginia, which expected to maximize the vote for Jefferson by providing a winner-take-all contest for electors. In New York, the Federalists thought they had locked up the state's electoral vote for Adams by having the legislature select electors; instead, Aaron Burr waged a successful campaign to win the state legislative elections for the Republicans and wrest control of both houses of the legislature out of Federalist hands. Alexander Hamilton wrote to Governor John Jay suggesting that the lame-duck legislature revert to a system of selecting presidential electors in district elections. …

The Political Consequences of the Financial and Economic Crisis in Europe: Electoral Punishment and Popular Protest

The Political Consequences of the Financial and Economic Crisis in Europe: Electoral Punishment and Popular Protest

School SLPs Brace for Change

School SLPs Brace for Change

Magnitude and durability of electoral change: Identifying critical elections in the U.S. Congress 1854–2010

The two hallmarks of a critical election and, hence, of a critical realignment are the magnitude of the observed change and the durability of that change. In addition to offering a new approach to measuring durable change in national party dominance, and providing a non-parametric criterion to identify unusual changes in seat/vote shares, we provide fresh insights via a unifying statistical approach that reflects both of these factors simultaneously. Furthermore, we assess the robustness of critical election determinations in two ways. First, we compare the magnitude of inter-election shifts with both average volatility over the entire time period and volatility relative to a particular time period. Second, as an alternative to the usual perspective, we consider critical elections not as a one-time cataclysm, but rather as a pair (or perhaps even triple) of consecutive substantial shifts, generated by the same underlying factors. Overall, we distinguish six elections that marginally or provisionally meet our criteria to be critical elections. But focusing on pairs of elections, 1858–60 and 1930–32 stand out as critical among all elections since the 1850s.

William Lloyd Garrison, Transatlantic Abolitionism and Colonisation in the Mid Nineteenth Century: The Revival of the Peculiar Solution?

One of the most persistent white responses to the ‘problem’ of slavery and race relations in the nineteenth-century United States was to suggest the removal and relocation of African Americans. The transatlantic abolitionist movement, however, decisively rejected colonisation in the early 1830s, and conventional wisdom suggests that they maintained their firm opposition from that point onwards. It is curious, then, that abolitionists in Britain and the United States enthusiastically received a text in 1857 – The Impending Crisis of the South – calling for colonisation as well as abolition. This article explains the reasons why they did so. It demonstrates that the Garrisonians recognised the book's potential for influencing the critical presidential election of 1860 and consequently sought to aid efforts to ensure wide circulation, belying their reputation for avoiding electoral politics.

Economic evaluations vs. ideology: Diagnosing the sources of electoral change in Turkey, 2002–2011

Turkish elections reflect two competing influences. One concerns a long-term increasingly conservative ideological orientation; the other, more short-term pragmatic evaluations primarily on the economic policy front. This article uses three nationwide representative surveys from 2002, 2007 and 2011 to assess the relative merits of these competing hypotheses. The findings indicate that the critical election of 2002 is not shaped by economic performance evaluations but rather by indicators of ideology at large and left–right ideology in particular. The influence of ideology appears to rise from 2002 to 2007 and 2011. Economic performance evaluations increase in salience from 2002 to 2007 but seem to have somewhat lost their power for 2011. Implications of these findings for the Turkish party system and further research questions are discussed in the concluding section.

Critical elections and democratic consolidation: the 2008 parliamentary elections in Bangladesh

This article explores the significance of the ninth parliamentary election, held in December 2008, for democratic consolidation in Bangladesh. Three factors have made the ninth election important: first, it was held after two years of military-backed civilian caretaker rule when the government had adopted several measures for electoral and political reforms; second, the main parties formed pre-election alliances to face each other, rather than contesting the election on an individual basis, as was the practice in the past; and third, the composition of the electorate changed significantly, with nearly one-third of the voters casting votes for the first time. The use of a foolproof electoral roll also made the election results credible. Unlike the past, no major case of election rigging has been reported to the Election Commission after the elections. Nor did those losing the elections reject the results outright. The government also initially adopted a policy of inclusion, creating some space for the opposition to be proactive, and the opposition reciprocated by attending the inaugural session of the ninth parliament and pledging to make the parliament effective. The article explores the significance of this change in attitude as well as different electoral reforms for democratic consolidation in the country.

The deadlocked election of 1800: Jefferson, Burr, and the union in the balance

It was one of the most critical elections of American history, overshadowed only by the one that plunged the country into civil war. The deadlocked election of 1800 has earned considerable attention and debate from historians; now James Roger Sharp reveals that modern observers didn't necessarily get it right. Only a decade old, the Constitution gave the federal government more powers than had the Articles of Confederation, causing many citizens to fear the erosion of states' rights. Meanwhile, war between France and Great Britain exacerbated the schism between Republicans and Federalists, each faction taking sides and questioning the other's loyalty. With Thomas Jefferson challenging incumbent John Adams for the presidency, a tied Electoral College vote threw the election into the House of Representatives amid rumors of violence, civil war, and secession. Richer in contemporary detail and context than previous studies, Sharp's book offers modern readers a better understanding of exactly what was at stake. Some say that this election was a mighty democratic uprising; Sharp argues that such interpretations are misleading. Others contend that eighteenth-century politics were no different than ours today; Sharp reveals just how distinctive they actually were. Avoiding the common mistake of imposing modern concepts onto the past, he instead puts himself in the place of citizens from 1800 to see events through their eyes. From that perspective, Sharp argues that Americans envisioned many possible outcomes to the crisis and that a peaceful solution was far from inevitable. Sharp offers a vivid account of protagonists and events. He tells how military conflict became a real possibility during the deadlock and explains what Jefferson meant when he characterized his election as the Revolution of 1800. He unravels the nature of political polarization and its relationship to the development of parties. And throughout he emphasizes that the participants themselves greatly feared what the future would bring. Engagingly written and uncommonly insightful, Sharp's chronicle reveals the complex interplay between the main actors and the historical context in which they operated. His book sheds new light on this crucial contest and shows like no other work that the success of the fragile new government under the Constitution was tentative at best.

The Depth of Parliamentary Elite Circulation: Long-Term Trends and Critical Elections in Denmark

Abstract This article argues that studies of parliamentary elite circulation should not focus exclusively on raw turnover rates, which pertain mostly to the entry and exit of new members of parliament. Studies should also pay attention to the circulation that goes on below the surface, i.e., circulation of long-standing and senior MPs – what might be termed the “depth” of parliamentary elite circulation. I develop an analytical tool for measuring the depth of circulation and use it to test the hypothesis that at “critical” parliamentary elections the pattern of parliamentary circulation is concentrated on seniors as well as newcomers. I then use this tool to analyze circulation of the Danish parliamentary elite during the past 150 years. If only gross turnover rates are studied, it appears that the elite has become increasingly open. But trends in the depth of circulation reveal a more complex pattern, requiring a more nuanced assessment of parliamentary elite dynamics.

The New York Times on critical elections, 1854-2008

The New York Times on critical elections, 1854-2008

Was 2005 a Critical Election in Taiwan?: Locating the Start of a New Political Era

This study applies the concept of critical elections to Taiwan's recent political history. Instead of 2008, it is argued that 2005 deserves the title of a critical election. Political developments in 2005 laid the foundations for the Kuomintang's return to political dominance.

Introduction: Contemporary Romanian politics

Romania is an archetypical case of protracted post-communism. Its regime transition was problematic and its founding election flawed, allowing successor communists to secure their hold on power. A period of quasi-authoritarianism and failed reform followed until critical elections in 1996 brought the liberal opposition to power for the first time. Since that time its political system has stabilized into a pattern in which electoral competition occurs but political accountability is limited and corruption is widespread. The current regime should therefore be considered as consolidated, bearing the marks of the transition period, but unlikely to undergo any further near term dramatic change.

The Effects of Political Competition on the Feasibility of Economic Reform

This paper explores the effects of political competition on reform feasibility. In contrast to previous models, this paper shows that desirable reform may fail even in the absence of economic losers or informational asymmetries, as a result of democracy. Even if reforms were to generate economic gains for all agents, electoral gains remain a zero sum game. This model provides insight regarding the conditions under which critical elections take place as studied in the political science literature. If there is a majority party, minority parties are able to pursue low value (which do not lead to political shifts) and high value reforms (which cause a political realignment). Intermediate value reforms are harder to enact, as the electoral cost of reform is high for the dominant party. In contrast, in highly contested political environments, only high value reforms may successfully be enacted.

The Politics of Realignment

Click to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size Notes 1. Lester G. Seligman and Cary R. Covington, The Coalitional Presidency (Chicago: Dorsey, 1989). 2. Walter Dean Burnham, Critical Elections: The Mainsprings of American Politics (New York: W.W. Norton, 1971). See also, John Aldrich, Why Parties? The Origin and Transformation of Party Politics in America (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1995); V.O. Key, “A Theory of Critical Elections,” Journal of Politics 17 (1955): 3–18; David R. Mayhew, Electoral Realignments: A Critique of an American Genre (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2004); James L. Sundquist, Dynamics of the Party System: Alignment and Realignment in the Political Parties in the United States, rev. ed. (Washington, DC: Brookings, 1983). 3. Stephen Skowronek, The Politics Presidents Make: Leadership from John Adams to Bill Clinton (Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press, 1991). 4. An argument can be made for 1964 as the beginning of the end for the Democrats, thus marking the rise of the Republican Party. See Earl Black and Merle Black, The Vital South: How Presidents are Elected (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1992). 5. This is most obvious in the support of those like Pennsylvania's Governor, Edward G. Rendell. 6. For an astute analysis of this possibility, see Morley Winograd and Michael D. Hais, Millennial Makeover: MySpace, YouTube, and the Future of American Politics (New Brunswick, NJ: Rutgers University Press, 2008). 7. According to USA Today, Democrats are still avoiding the word “liberal,” preferring “progressive” as less likely to deter moderate voters. See http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/2007-11-12-liberal-conservative_N.htm (accessed 29 February 2008). 8. It is true that during the George W. Bush administration, significant changes have been made to the federal bureaucracy. Those enacted through the Patriot Act and Homeland Security Act have been especially important in expanding the power and reach of the federal government. Without discounting the immense importance of these actions, they expanded existing structures, but they have not fundamentally altered the way the federal government does business. Such change is normally associated with realignments. For more detail on such changes, see Skowronek, The Politics Presidents Make. 9. B.B. Kymlicka and Jean V. Matthews, ed., The Reagan Revolution? (Chicago: Dorsey, 1988). Additional informationNotes on contributorsMary E. StuckeyMary Stuckey is Professor of Communication and Political Science at Georgia State University. She is interested in how political power is constructed and communicated and her research has been supported by NASA, the National Endowment of the Humanities, the American Indian Science and Engineering Society, the Gerald R. Ford Library, and CSPAN. She would like to thank Doug Barthlow, Barbara Biesecker, and David Cheshier for their help with this essay

Fig Leaves and Tea Leaves in the Supreme Court’s Recent Election Law Decisions

This Article, which will appear in the Supreme Court Review, reads the fig leaves and tea leaves in the five election law decisions the Supreme Court handed down during the 2007-2008 term. The fig leaves are the strategies the Chief Justice has used to craft consensus in these cases. In particular, the Court has massaged the doctrine concerning facial and as-applied challenges in such a way as to leave more divisive election law controversies for another day. It has also buried any concerns the Justices have previously voiced concerning incumbent or party entrenchment in the enactment of election laws. In reading the tea leaves from these decisions, the Article describes the signals the the Court has sent regarding most of the critical election law controversies that have preoccupied it in recent years: campaign finance, voting rights, redistricting and regulation of political parties.

From Civil Society to Civil Servants: Women's Organizations and Critical Elections in Croatia

This work examines the role of women's organizations in the 2000 elections in Croatia in an effort to understand when and how they play a significant role in promoting democracy and, in particular, the election of female candidates. Croatia offers a crucial case for the study of gender and democratization because it challenges two significant generalizations from the comparative literature on postcommunist transitions: first, that women's organizations have been more likely to succeed in postcommunist countries where democracy has proceeded the furthest and, in particular, where ethno-nationalist conflict and ideologies are least salient; and, second, that widespread opposition to gender quotas in postcommunist countries prevented their use as a tool for promoting women's equality. What conditions were present that facilitated the effectiveness of women's organizations in Croatia in promoting their goal of electing more women? Four factors are key to explaining their success: the organizational strength and unity of women's organizations; the extent of involvement by international organizations and donors; the perceived central role of women's organizations in democratization; and, finally, the character of their alliances with political parties.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the Thirteenth Berkshire Conference on the History of Women, Scripps College, June 2–5, 2005. I would like to thank Lisa Baldez, Karen Beckwith, Charlie Kenney, Carol Lilly, Andrew Halterman, and three anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments on earlier drafts of this article.

Towards secure online elections: models, primitives and open issues

Electronic voting may be a feasible option for several election environments, from closed-group elections to nationwide elections. Especially with online voting, people will be able to cast their votes through a web browser, from their home or any other location where they can get internet access. This paper reviews the generic cryptographic models that have been proposed in the academic literature for secure electronic voting and provides a comprehensive assessment, in terms of security and functionality, of recent cryptographic schemes that extend the generic models to support online elections. The paper also highlights several critical security and implementation issues that need to be addressed before online voting is adopted for critical elections.

The Italian regions at the polls 2005: When a political earthquake does not create a critical election

This article deals with the Italian Regional Elections of April 2005. After providing a brief sketch of the shaping of regional government during the past ten years, the article deals with three essential features. First: the character of the consultation. Once again, the national-political significance of regional elections has largely prevailed. Second: the relationship between turnout and party performance. The centre-right electorate abstention was at the origin of the electoral triumph of the Unione. Third: the most significant results of both majority and proportional sector contests. The result was cut and dried. The Unione gained 12 out of 14 regions where elections took place. Notwithstanding, this political earthquake did not create a critical election.