Critical Elections Research Articles

Understanding the 2022 Kenyan presidential election outcome: insights from Key’s critical elections theory

ABSTRACT The ethnicisation of election and the concomitant diffusion of violence has been widely explored in the literature on Kenyan presidential elections. However, the critical character of the elections has been understudied, especially as it concerns the depth and intensity of involvement occasioned by the realignment of political actors. Oftentimes, this has resulted in the emergence of fundamental changes in power dynamics. This study drew insights from Key’s critical elections theory to analyse the 2022 Kenyan presidential election. Relying on primary and secondary sources, the study contends that the election exhibited critical characteristics owing to the economic crisis and the accompanying hardship on Kenyans, which united the poor electorate behind then-candidate William Ruto. The election revealed a sharp alteration in the pre-existing cleavage within the electorate and a profound readjustment in power relations as Key’s theory posited. This was amply demonstrated by Raila Odinga’s alliance with Uhuru Kenyatta, his old political foe, and Ruto’s populist campaign tenor – hustlers versus dynasties. We argue that the hustler narrative transcended primordial identity because it resonated with the poor electorate irrespective of their ethnicity. Therefore, it is the dynastic realignment and Ruto’s pro-poor campaign strategy that effectively set the tone for a critical election. We concluded that despite the seemingly subpar performance of President Ruto, he is still the candidate to beat in the 2027 presidential election if Odinga wins the African Union Chairmanship election in 2025. This study contributes to the growing body of literature on presidential elections in Africa.

Volatility, Realignment, and Electoral Shocks: Brexit and the UK General Election of 2019

The 2019 UK General Election had seismic consequences for British politics. After three years of political turmoil following the 2016 referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union (EU), the 2019 election marked a victory for the Leave side of the Brexit debate, putting to rest questions of a second referendum and any chance of Parliament blocking the Withdrawal Bill. The United Kingdom left the EU on January 31, 2020. Although there were clear consequences for Britain’s EU membership, there is debate about whether 2019 was a “Brexit election” (Prosser 2020)—even a critical election (Green 2021)—or the continuation of long-term realignments in British politics (Cutts et al. 2020; Jennings and Stoker 2017). By most accounts, Brexit dominated the 2019 election as a political issue, but whether this represents a key moment in a process of realignment of voters in Britain remains to be seen.

A new electoral map? Brexit, realignment and the changing geography of party support in England

Critical elections theory has linked fundamental changes in electoral geography to realignment. In the UK there has been much debate over whether Britain is going through a period of realignment and the extent to which this can be attributed to Brexit. In this paper we assess how far the 2016 EU referendum has contributed to creating a new electoral geography. The 2019 UK General Election was characterised by far-reaching changes to geographical patterns of support for the major parties, with Labour losing many of its ‘red-wall’ seats to the Conservatives, especially those which voted strongly for Brexit. Meanwhile, Labour strengthened its position in the Remain-leaning metropolitan heartlands. We provide a detailed examination of how the geography of support for the ruling Conservative Party changed over-time, before and after the referendum, and the extent to which the new electoral map reflects the geography of Brexit. We find that geographical patterns of party alignment did change abruptly after the 2016 referendum, a pattern which is not consistent with the gradually evolving electoral geography. Moreover, the changes appear to be driven almost entirely by the electoral sorting of voters on either side of the Brexit divide. This suggests that the Brexit electoral shock was a major contributing factor to the reshaping of England's electoral geography.

WALTER DEAN BURNHAM: In Memory and Appreciation

Dean Burnham, who died in San Antonio in October at the age of ninety-two, was an active and enthusiastic supporter of this journal from its inception. His loss deprives editors and managing editors of his energetic and assiduous counsel, especially regarding any writings or commentaries devoted to political parties, elections, political realignments, political polling, and the deep literature on the evolution of American democracy from originalist founding days to the rise of reactionary recent presidents.Because this journal was originally housed at MIT, it was both convenient and illuminating to stroll into Burnham’s office and ask his opinion about a submission or about an idea for a special issue, or to request advice about some aspect of American or European political development. Burnham would always answer the precise questions and then, unprompted, provide context and a compendium of intellectual discourse related to the inquiry. He was integral to the growth of the JIH from its formative years, and ever since.A student of Harvard University’s V.O. Key, Burnham in 1965 published a defining article on declining voter turnout, “The Changing Shape of the American Political Universe,” in the American Political Science Review. Among his many seminal books were Critical Elections and the Mainsprings of American Politics (1970), Democracy in the Making: American Government and Politics (1986), and Voting in American Elections: The Shaping of the American Political Universe Since 1788 (2009). In 2014, he co-wrote—with Thomas Ferguson, a former student—“Americans Are Sick to Death of Both Parties: Why Our Politics Are in Worse Shape Than We Thought,” a study of the 2014 American elections. He also commented in print on the 2016 “change election” that brought Donald Trump to the presidency. As the New York Times’ obituary indicated, Burnham was “one of the most influential political scientists of his generation.” Among Burnham’s many intellectual contributions to this journal was his path-breaking article, “Those High Nineteenth-Century American Voting Turnouts: Fact or Fiction?” XVI (1986), 613–644.Before joining the MIT political science department in 1971, Burnham had taught at Boston University, Kenyon College, Haverford College, and Washington University. In 1988, he departed MIT for the University of Texas, Austin. His students there were as devoted to his breadth of learning and his clever wit as those at MIT had been.Burnham was profoundly interdisciplinary in his interests, his discourse, and his approach to political and social history. He extolled the craft of translating compelling theories and concepts into accessible articles and books, thus contributing mightily to the fashioning and qualitative uplifting of this journal for decades. The JIH’s readers and editors will sadly miss his profound insights and unparalleled wisdom.

Overcoming Barriers to Voter Mobilization during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Case Study of St. Louis, Missouri.

Voters in St. Louis, Missouri, faced unprecedented challenges amid two critical elections during the 2020 election season. Voters were to determine if the state should expand access to Medicaid as well as decide the next President of the United States. The lack of access to affordable health care, combined with a federal administration at odds with the Black Lives Matter movement, elevated the importance of electoral engagement within communities of color. The emergence COVID-19 complicated voter mobilization efforts as public health restrictions limited access to voters and shifting voting regulations confused voters. This study presents an in-depth qualitative case study of voter mobilization efforts in St. Louis by drawing on semi-structured interviews with 28 participants who engaged in voter mobilization within poverty-impacted communities in St. Louis City and St. Louis County. Subjects identified how they shifted tactics to allow for the health and safety of mobilizers and potential voters. Additionally, policies are identified that would eliminate administrative hurdles placed on voters and shift the burden of facilitating democratic elections to the State. Findings from this study highlight the widening structural barriers and administrative burdens that are inhibiting a straightforward process for voting and detail potential policy solutions.

Mobilizing for what? Polarized citizens and electoral turnout in transitioning Tunisia

ABSTRACT In countries that have recently transitioned to democracy, what factors most drive citizens to mobilize and participate in early elections? Many comparative studies on democratization and elections stress the vital importance of early elections in new democracies – with voter turnout inexorably linked to a democracy’s long-term stability and legitimacy – however, much of this literature focuses on aggregate rather than individual-level behaviour, and very little targets the Middle East/North Africa region. This study closely examines individual voting behaviour in democratizing Tunisia’s critical second election in 2014. We argue that amidst great uncertainty, the polarizing issues of national and political identity created systematic disparities in participation – with the most ideologically polarized citizens/social groups more likely to vote. Using original data from a survey conducted in Tunisia right after its November 2014 elections, we find that Tunisians were sharply divided in their support for democracy, the previous regime, and Islamic governance. Specifically, Tunisians who were more ideologically polarized along its secular-Islamist divide and those more satisfied with the new democratic system were more likely to vote – overall suggesting somewhat uneven electoral participation in this critical election and, therefore, the potential for the kind of instability conducive to democratic breakdown.

How a Victorian Immigrant Almost Became the First Lady of the United States

How a Victorian Immigrant Almost Became the First Lady of the United States Janelle Molony (bio) Sarah Jane Daglish, born in 1815 in England at the height of the Industrial Revolution, may have dreamed of one day marrying a prince but likely never imagined herself becoming the queen of America fifty years later. But, through six degrees of separation, or one big mistake, it was almost true! In 1837, Miss Daglish, then a music teacher living in Saginaw, Michigan, met her would-be Kentuckian husband and Republican presidential ticket hopeful, only to be caught in a case of mistaken identity. Discovering the Source of the Story To preserve her family's remarkable past (I am a descendant and a historian), I have been telling stories of my great-great-great-grandmother Sarah Jane Rousseau (née Daglish) for nearly five years. In studying my ancestral roots, I have landed on a gemstone: a private diary that exquisitely details the family's westward wagon train adventure from near Pella, Iowa, to San Bernardino, California, in 1864.1 From this discovery, I am novelizing the journey in a forthcoming work of fiction based on the people of the Pella Company featured in Sarah's diary. Though the original diary is in the possession of another family member, I have a copy of a typed transcription from the 1900s created by one of the wagon train member descendants.2 The entries begin on Friday, May 13, 1864, and end on Saturday, December 17—spanning the critical election season that might have launched Sarah into the political spotlight, if only her Michigan meeting with the male caller had gone another way. In the diary, she catalogs mileage, weather, and major landmarks, as well as her personal opinions on important matters such as people's manners, physical appearances, and her adoration for four regal gray horses that pulled her "carriage" through the plains until they met tragic endings.3 [End Page 131] San Bernardino historian Nicholas Cataldo examined the original diary while in the possession of its prior owner. He photographed several pages and described the lightly penciled-in sketches of nightly camp corrals and dainty wildflowers that were pressed tightly between the aging sheets.4 The nearly always perfect, tightly looped cursive and proper grammar reflect Sarah's elite upbringing as a daughter of a well-off tailor from Newcastle Upon Tyne in England. From England to America With help from Stephen Daglish—a surname expert and representative of the Guild of One-Name Studies—I have traced the lineage of the Daglish name (a derivative of the Dalgleish Scottish spelling).5 They first crossed the Scottish border near Selkirk into England in the 1500s. There, several generations of lowly medieval coal miners rose in social rank from the English village of Wickham, County Durham, south of the River Tyne, and later in Tanfield and Eighton Banks (alternatively spelled "Ayton"). In County Durham, the family may have dabbled in the booming of "waggonways,"6 which became the model for more modern railway systems in the late 1700s. From there, the Daglish name appears across the Tyne, in Shiremoor, Northumberland, until the family line eventually traces to neighboring villages in Great Usworth and a much more affluent situation.7 Here, Sarah's grandfather John Daglish Sr. (1750-1797) married the daughter of a bootmaker and they had seven children together, including brothers William and John Jr.8 In 1812, William Daglish (1780-1849) married Mary Anne Eliott (1787-1824), whose brother, Thomas, ran a large boot and shoe establishment in Newcastle Upon Tyne.9 The couple moved there to raise their only two children: Mary Ann Daglish (1813-1904) and Sarah Jane Daglish (1815-1872). Per granddaughter Evelyn Anderson-Straight's recollection, the girls were provided a private education by in-home tutors, with an emphasis on fine needlework and music.10 This included receiving instruction from a distinguished piano master and student of the composer Ludwig van Beethoven. Though the instructor's name is undocumented in family records, I can narrow the possibilities to Ferdinand Ries, who interned with Beethoven for four years, produced a few concertos, and then settled in London from 1813...

Democracias incompletas: El caso de Brasil

The article aims to analyze whether, after 30 years of current Brazilian democracy, political institutions will be resilient enough to deal with the consequences of an authoritarian government elected in the middle of a deep representation crisis. In other words, would this be a turn to an illiberal democracy? From an analysis of the situation, we traced a chronology of circumstances – transition from the authoritarian regime, popular dissatisfaction, critical elections of 2018 as a time of exhaustion for the New Republic, dynamics of the party dispute – that converged to the rise of ultra-right forces, elected through a democratic regime. Data referring to public perception concerning institutions, electoral results, and performance of traditional parties in recent electoral cycles (general election of 2018 and municipal election of 2020) are analyzed. We conclude that the growth of center-right parties in the 2020 municipal elections indicate that – despite the analytical correctness of the literature on the possibility of internal corrosion of democracies by nationalist neopopulism – the thesis regarding incidental rulers has strong evidence visible in Brazil.

Nothing to Worry About: Why Liberals Underestimate Dominant Leaders and Act Complacently

When dominant-authoritarian leaders are successful, political liberals overwhelmingly express shock and disappointment. Beyond party affiliation, we offer a psychologically grounded explanation contending the prevalence of a systematic bias among liberals. We argue that liberals, compared to conservatives, underestimate the success of dominant-authoritarian leaders, and that this systematic underestimation makes liberal complacent, overconfident, and less inclined to exercise their vote. We test our hypotheses across seven studies (two pre-registered, one in SI), including large-scale field data, six experimental studies with varied contexts, and a combined sample of more than 215,000 observations from 93 countries and spanning the past three decades. In doing so, our work explains the continued underestimation of dominant leaders and consequent surprise from political liberals during critical elections, and why underestimating the success of dominant leaders may lead liberals to act complacently and paradoxically increase such leaders’ chances of success.

The Role of Regulatory Agencies in Agenda-Setting Processes: Insights from the Italian Response to the COVID-19 Infodemic.

International organizations such as the WHO have worked to raise awareness of the massive infodemic that accompanied the COVID‐19 outbreak and made it hard for people to find trustworthy sources of information and reliable guidance for their decisions. Our contribution focuses on the Italian case, where the Communications Regulatory Authority (AGCOM) was able to act as first mover in its field so as to strategically frame the problem of disinformation in the absence of a pre‐existing policy intervention. An emerging body of research shows that the activity of formally independent regulators is not necessarily limited to the implementation of delegated regulatory competencies. We discuss the implications of the activity of independent regulators for the fight against disinformation during the COVID‐19 pandemic. We find that as a political actor in its own right, the Italian media regulator claimed control over sectoral expertise in order to shape the crucial first steps of the response to the infodemic.

Volatility, Realignment and Electoral Shocks: Brexit and the UK General Election of 2019

There has been some debate as to whether the 2019 General Election was a Brexit election – even a critical election – or the continuation of long-term realignments in British Politics. In this article we argue that, while the process of realignment has its roots long-before the referendum of 2016, to properly understand the 2019 election we must recognise the interplay of long-term secular trends and the electoral shock of Brexit. We demonstrate how Brexit continued to structure electoral choices in 2019 as manifested in a crystallization of shifting electoral cleavages around social class, geography, education and age; the persistence of alternative political identities; and a reversal in electoral volatility. While these developments are consistent with the early stages of a realignment catalysed by the EU referendum in 2016, it is still too early to determine whether they should be considered a long-term critical realignment, or a temporary but very substantial interruption to politics as usual.

Defending Democracy from Foreign Cyber Interference: The Role of Canadian Intelligence Agencies in the 2019 Federal Election

This chapter focuses on the role of Canada's intelligence agencies to defend against foreign interference in the 2019 Federal Election. It highlights the role of the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS or “the Service”), the Communications Security Establishment (CSE), and to a lesser extent the new Rapid Response Mechanism (RRM) housed at Global Affairs Canada (GAC) to identify and counter the threat of foreign cyber influence under their statutory mandates and as part of the newly formed Security and Intelligence Threats to Elections (SITE) Task Force. This chapter relies on open source information and documents obtained via access to information requests to detail the principal legal authorities through which Canadian intelligence agencies sought to defend campaigns and voters from foreign cyber influence, as well as critical election infrastructure from direct attacks. In doing so, this chapter raises questions about the appropriate role of intelligence officials and the Ministers responsible for their agencies when it comes to safeguarding Canadian elections. It also identifies how the Government of Canada sought to ensure that decisions made in the interest of national security were free from partisan interference, and suggests areas for improvement.

1999’dan 2002 Genel Seçimlerine Giden Süreçte Türkiye’de Kritik Yeniden Saflaşma Ve Kritik Seçim Teorisi Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme

Seçimler, demokratik toplumlarda vatandaşların yönetime katılımının sağlanması ve hükümetin kurulması için önemli ve vazgeçilmez bir araçtır. Seçimler sonunda seçmenlerin oylarıyla bürokratik ya da siyasi görevleri üstlenecek ve iş başına gelecek kişiler belirlenir. Ancak seçimler, yalnızca bir seçme eylemi değildir zira bir sürecin parçasını da oluşturmaktadır. Dolayısı ile seçmenin oy verme davranışları çeşitli faktörlere göre değişirken; bu faktörlerin hangi çerçevede değiştiğinin anlaşılması seçmenlerin kritik yeniden saflaşmaları ve kritik seçimlerin ortaya çıkmasının anlaşılması için önemlidir. Kritik seçim teorisi, seçim dönemlerinde seçmenlerin süregiden bir durumu ani ve radikal bir biçimde değiştirecek yeniden saflaşmasını ifade eder. Kritik yeniden saflaşmalar ve kritik seçimler sonucunda seçime giren partilerin önceki seçimlere göre oyları artar veya oylarda radikal bir azalma yaşanır. Bu teoriye göre seçmenlerin oy verme davranışı oy verilen partiye duyulan memnuniyetsizlik, sosyo-ekonomik durum, dış politika, seçmen psikolojisi, lider etkisi veya seçim zamanlarında partilerin kullandıkları söylemler gibi birçok etmene göre değişebilmektedir. Türkiye’de 1999’dan 2002’ye giden süreçte ekonomik, siyasi ve toplumsal alanlarda gerçekleşen iç ve dış dinamikler, seçmenlerin oy kullanma tercihi üzerinde etkili olmuştur. Bu bağlamda bu makalede kritik yeniden saflaşma ve kritik seçim teorisi ışığında Türkiye’de 18 Nisan 1999 genel seçimlerinden 3 Kasım 2002 genel seçimlerine giden süreç, iç ve dış dinamikler çerçevesinde incelenmiştir. Çalışmada öncelikle kritik yeniden saflaşma ve kritik seçim teorisi üzerinde durulmuştur. Ardından Türkiye’de belirtilen süreçte iç ve dış dinamikler ayrıntılı olarak incelenmiştir. Bu çalışmada, seçimlerden başarılı bir sonuç alan Genç Parti ve Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi üzerinden bir değerlendirme sunulmuştur. Genç Parti’nin yükselişi ve Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi’nin koalisyon hükümetlerinin ardından tek parti hükümeti kurması konu bağlamında analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmada Türkiye’de 1999 ve 2002 genel seçimlerinin siyasi, ekonomik, sosyal yapısını iç ve dış dinamikler bağlamında çözümlemek, “kritik yeniden saflaşma” ve “kritik seçim” ile ilgili kavramsal ve metodolojik tartışmanın ana hatlarını oluşturmaktadır.

Ontological Security and Critical Gubernatorial Elections in Okinawa -The Paradoxical Dynamics of Trust in the Japanese Government-

Ontological Security and Critical Gubernatorial Elections in Okinawa -The Paradoxical Dynamics of Trust in the Japanese Government-

South Korea’s 2020 Election Amid COVID-19

At the general election on 15 April 2020 held amid the COVID-19 crisis, the ruling party in South Korea won an overwhelming majority. This election was a kind of “critical election” in which swing voters in particular took a safe, risk-aversive option of supporting the ruling party which responded successfully to the pandemic.

Padrões de votação no tempo e no espaço: classificando as eleições presidenciais brasileiras

Resumo Em 2018, o Brasil realizou seu oitavo pleito presidencial pós-redemocratização, acumulando evidências empíricas cruciais para a análise das características dos processos eleitorais que podem ser responsáveis por mudanças substanciais na distribuição do poder entre os partidos políticos. A partir de base conceitual alicerçada em literatura internacional sobre eleições críticas, este artigo visa criar uma classificação para as eleições brasileiras. Como subsídio principal para essa classificação, é analisado simultaneamente, no tempo e no espaço, por meio da análise fatorial, o desempenho eleitoral dos primeiros colocados nas eleições presidenciais desde 1989 até 2018 em primeiro turno na escala das microrregiões brasileiras, buscando identificar as regiões de apoio duradouro e os períodos de estabilidade e mudança nos padrões de votação. Como resultado, as eleições presidenciais são classificadas em três tipos: mantidas, desviantes e convertidas (críticas).

Gender Quotas as (Non-)Binding Constraints: the Case of Semi-Open List Formation in Flemish Municipalities

ABSTRACTIn semi-open list systems, parties present pre-selected pools of candidates to the electorate. Candidates’ assigned ranks on the lists heavily influence their election odds and may reflect party leaders’ preferences, notably a possible gender bias. To strengthen women's representation, parties’ choices are increasingly subject to legal quotas. These quotas are expected to be less binding for left-wing parties, which tend to be more women-friendly. Analyzing 854 party lists presented to Flemish voters in the 2012 local elections, this study finds that right-wing party leadership discriminate in favor of women by offering them higher positions on the party lists. For leftist parties, the study finds discrimination in favor of men. Importantly, parties offering higher positions to women tend to do so in parts of the party list certain to lead to either election (left-wing parties) or non-election (right-wing parties). For positions with critical election-odds, no gender bias is identified.HIGHLIGHTS• Women's representation is a major concern in today's politics.• Gender quotas in elections are meant to ensure women's presence on ballots.• In the 2012 Flemish elections, women candidates were on average positioned higher on party ballots than they would be if positioning were based on anticipated electoral success.• Left-wing parties advantage women in positions with high chances of election. Right-wing parties advance women only in positions with low chances of success.• For positions with critical election odds, rankings across all parties are based on expected electoral success in terms of preferential votes, irrespective of candidate gender.• Assigned ballot positions may reflect underlying gender preferences or power balance within the party leadership. Gender biases may be neutralized more effectively by placement mandates than by general quota rules.

Brexit, the 2019 General Election and the Realignment of British Politics

AbstractThe outcome of the 2019 general election—a resounding Conservative majority and an unprecedented defeat for Labour—delivered a decisive electoral verdict for the first time in recent years following a period where British politics has been characterised by instability and indecision. In this article, we draw on aggregate‐level data to conduct an initial exploration of the vote. What was the impact of Brexit on the 2019 general election result? How far has Brexit reshaped electoral politics? Was 2019 a ‘realignment election’? And, if so, what are the implications? With a focus on England and Wales we show that, although the Conservatives made gains deep into Labour’s working class heartlands, these gains have been a long time coming, reflected in Labour’s weakening relationship with working class Britain. As such, 2019 is not a critical election but a continuation of longer‐term trends of dealignment and realignment in British politics.

How did Taiwan’s Critical Election Changed China’s Taiwan Policy in the Early 2000s: A Modified Two-Level Game Analysis

How did Taiwan’s Critical Election Changed China’s Taiwan Policy in the Early 2000s: A Modified Two-Level Game Analysis

Rhetorical Activism in Politics: Stability Discourse and Pragmatic Practicality in Times of Crisis

This article aims to investigate how successfully the dichotomy between stability and crisis is used as a medium of effective political activism and power in a critical election. The main question of the article is how the parties took advantage of the political climate in their political rhetoric to activate the mental cognitions of the majority at a time when Turkey was struggling with internal and external problems. In the framework of the research question, it is analyzed whether the parties, which were represented in the Turkish Parliament, utilized the dichotomy between stability and crisis in the context of pragmatic practicality or were lost obsessively in the normative, theoretically inductive long term ideals such as democracy, human rights and gender equality. In this context the term ‘rhetorical activism’ is associated to the term ‘pragmatic practicality’. The principal objective of the article is to help increase consciousness of how the political rhetoric of the ruling party AKP (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi/Justice and Development Party) comprising the catchword “stability” contributed to the domination of the mental cognitions of the electorates, and so increased its votes by 10% in five months in November 1, 2015 elections.