Critical Care Attending Research Articles

The impact of 24-hr, in-hospital pediatric critical care attending physician presence on process of care and patient outcomes*

Attending physicians are only required to provide in-hospital coverage during daytime hours in many pediatric intensive care units. An in-hospital 24-hr pediatric intensive care unit attending coverage model has been increasingly popular, but the impact of 24-hr, in-hospital attending coverage on care processes and outcomes has not been reported. We compared processes of care and outcomes before and after the implementation of a 24-hr in-hospital pediatric intensive care unit attending physician model. Retrospective comparison of before and after cohorts. A single large, academic tertiary medical/surgical pediatric intensive care unit. : Pediatric intensive care unit admissions in 2000-2006. Transition to 24-hr from 12-hr in-hospital pediatric critical care attending physician coverage model in January 2004. A total of 18,702 patients were admitted to intensive care unit: 8,520 in 24 hrs; 10,182 in 12 hrs. Duration of mechanical ventilation was lower (median 33 hrs [interquartile range 12-88] vs. 48 hrs [interquartile range 16-133], adjusted reduction of 35% [95% confidence interval 25%-44%], p < .001) and intensive care unit length of stay was shorter (median 2 days [interquartile range 1-4] vs. 2 days [interquartile range 1-5], adjusted p < .001) for 24 hr vs. 12 hr coverage. The reduction in mechanical ventilation hours was similar when noninvasive, mechanical ventilation was included in ventilation hours (median 42 hrs vs. 56 hrs, adjusted reduction in ventilation hours: 33% [95% confidence interval 20-45], p < .001). Intensive care unit mortality was not significantly different (2.2% vs. 2.5%, adjusted p =.23). These associations were consistent across daytime and nighttime admissions, weekend and weekday admissions, and among subgroups with higher Pediatric Risk of Mortality III scores, postsurgical patients, and histories of previous intensive care unit admission. Implementation of 24-hr in-hospital pediatric critical care attending coverage was associated with shorter duration of mechanical ventilation and shorter length of intensive care unit stay. After accounting for potential confounders, this finding was consistent across a broad spectrum of critically ill children.

Factors associated with pediatric critical care attending follow-up with families after the death of a patient: A national survey with an experimental design*

To evaluate components of the family-physician relationship that affect the likelihood of self-reported physician follow-up with bereaved families. Randomized, split-sample, national survey. Two hundred four pediatric critical care attending physicians in the United States (54% response rate). Subjects were randomly assigned to respond to differing versions of three clinical vignettes varying in each instance in: 1) the patient's length of stay in the intensive care unit; 2) the depiction of the degree of trust of the family toward medical staff; or 3) the depiction of the family's emotional reactions. Subjects then reported their likelihood of following-up with the family after the patient's death. Physicians were more likely to report they would contact families depicted as having a trusting relationship with staff (p = .01). Variations in depicted length of patient stay (p = .5) and in the nature of the family's emotional reaction (p = .9) were not associated with self-reported likelihood of follow-up (p = .5). The only difference observed regarding the method of contacting families after a death was that participants were more likely to say they would attend the funeral of the patient with a trustful family (p < .01). Pediatric critical care attending physicians were more likely to report following-up with a bereaved family and attend a funeral in a vignette portraying a trustful relationship between the family and staff.

Comparison of a Critical Care Attending- and Fellow-Run Rapid Response Team With an Internal Medicine Hospitalist- and Resident-Run Rapid Response Team

Comparison of a Critical Care Attending- and Fellow-Run Rapid Response Team With an Internal Medicine Hospitalist- and Resident-Run Rapid Response Team

The Use of “War Games” to Evaluate Performance of Students and Residents in Basic Clinical Scenarios: A Disturbing Analysis

"Failure to Rescue" is a term applied to clinical issues that, if unrecognized or improperly treated, lead to adverse outcomes. We examined the cognitive components of rescue through the use of a "War Games" simulator format. Our hypothesis was that junior and senior medical students would be less able than interns and residents to detail the actions needed to assess, intervene, and stabilize patients. Medical students and residents rotating on the trauma and surgical intensive care unit service participated. Twelve scenarios were created to focus on basic floor emergencies. Scores were assigned for clinical actions ordered. The scenarios were validated by two critical care attending physicians, and these scores were used as the expert group. Scores were assigned by two examiners, and the average of the grades in each area was used. The scores are a ratio of actual to possible correct responses in each section, and in the entire exercise. Subjects were divided into third-year medical students (MS3), fourth-year students (MS4), first-year residents (PGY1), residents beyond their first year (PGY2+), and experts. There were 20 subjects and 5 experts (n = 85) in each group for a total of 140 simulated cases examined. On initial evaluation, MS4 and PGY2+ performed significantly worse than expert, and MS3 and PGY1 performed similarly to experts. On secondary evaluation, all groups performed significantly worse than the expert group. In determining the diagnosis, only MS3 differed significantly from the experts. On follow-up, and in total score, all performed significantly worse than the experts. All groups had significant deficits in cognitive performance compared with experts in the areas of secondary evaluation, follow-up of the presenting problem, and total performance in simple clinical scenarios. We must design educational systems that rapidly enhance the cognitive performance of students and residents before they are left to independently diagnose and intervene in life-threatening clinical situations.

Achieving Housestaff Competence in Emergency Airway Management Using Scenario Based Simulation Training: Comparison of Attending vs Housestaff Trainers

<h3>Study objectives</h3> To evaluate a teaching protocol comparing a critical care attending to a housestaff team in training medical interns in initial airway management skills using a computer-controlled patient simulator (CPS) and scenario-based simulation training (SST). <h3>Design</h3> Prospective, randomized, controlled, unblinded trial. <h3>Setting</h3> Internal medicine residency training program in an urban teaching hospital. <h3>Participants</h3> Forty-nine starting internal medicine interns in July 2003, all of whom had been certified in advanced cardiac life support in June 2003. <h3>Interventions</h3> All interns were tested and scored with a CPS while responding to a standardized respiratory arrest scenario. Random allocation to either training by a single experienced teaching attending or by a housestaff team occurred immediately following testing. All interns were retested using the same scenario 6 weeks following the initial training, and their clinical performance of airway management was scored during actual patient events throughout the year. <h3>Measurements</h3> Initial airway management was divided into specific scorable steps. For each intern, individual step scores and total scores were recorded before and after training. For 10 consecutive months following training, intern airway management scores were recorded for actual patient airway events. <h3>Results</h3> All starting medical interns demonstrated poor initial airway management skills. SST was effective in improving these skills, both on retesting with the patient simulator and in actual patient situations. Interns trained by a housestaff team performed as well as interns trained by the attending. <h3>Conclusions</h3> SST is effective in training medical interns, and the results are equivalent whether the training is provided by an experienced teaching attending or by a housestaff training team.

New and Lingering Controversies in Pediatric End-of-Life Care

Professional societies, ethics institutes, and the courts have recommended principles to guide the care of children with life-threatening conditions; however, little is known about the degree to which pediatric care providers are aware of or in agreement with these guidelines. The study's objectives were to determine the extent to which physicians and nurses in critical care, hematology/oncology, and other subspecialties are in agreement with one another and with widely published ethical recommendations regarding the withholding and withdrawing of life support, the provision of adequate analgesia, and the role of parents in end-of-life decision-making. Three children's hospitals and 4 general hospitals with PICUs in eastern, southwestern, and southern parts of the United States were surveyed. This population-based sample was composed of attending physicians, house officers, and nurses who cared for children (age: 1 month to 18 years) with life-threatening conditions in PICUs or in medical, surgical, or hematology/oncology units, floors, or departments. Main outcome measures included concerns of conscience, knowledge and beliefs, awareness of published guidelines, and agreement or disagreement with guidelines. A total of 781 clinicians were sampled, including 209 attending physicians, 116 house officers, and 456 nurses. The overall response rate was 64%. Fifty-four percent of house officers and substantial proportions of attending physicians and nurses reported, "At times, I have acted against my conscience in providing treatment to children in my care." For example, 38% of critical care attending physicians and 25% of hematology/oncology attending physicians expressed these concerns, whereas 48% of critical care nurses and 38% of hematology/oncology nurses did so. Across specialties, approximately 20 times as many nurses, 15 times as many house officers, and 10 times as many attending physicians agreed with the statement, "Sometimes I feel we are saving children who should not be saved," as agreed with the statement, "Sometimes I feel we give up on children too soon." However, hematology/oncology attending physicians (31%) were less likely than critical care (56%) and other subspecialty (66%) attending physicians to report, "Sometimes I feel the treatments I offer children are overly burdensome." Many respondents held views that diverged widely from published recommendations. Despite a lack of awareness of key guidelines, across subspecialties the vast majority of attending physicians (range: 92-98%, depending on specialty) and nurses (range: 83-85%) rated themselves as somewhat to very knowledgeable regarding ethical issues. There is a need for more hospital-based ethics education and more interdisciplinary and cross-subspecialty discussion of inherently complex and stressful pediatric end-of-life cases. Education should focus on establishing appropriate goals of care, as well as on pain management, medically supplied nutrition and hydration, and the appropriate use of paralytic agents. More research is needed on clinicians' regard for the dead-donor rule.

Time required for equilibration of arterial oxygen pressure after setting optimal positive end-expiratory pressure in acute respiratory distress syndrome

To evaluate the time course of Pao2 change following the setting of optimal positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Prospective clinical study. Multidisciplinary intensive care unit of a university hospital. Twenty-five consecutive patients with ARDS. ARDS was diagnosed during pressure-regulated volume control ventilation with tidal volume of 7 mL/kg actual body weight, respiratory rate of 12 breaths/min, inspiratory/expiratory ratio of 1:2, Fio2 of 1, and PEEP of 5 cm H2O. A critical care attending physician obtained pressure volume curves and determined the lower inflection point. Following a rest period of 30 mins with initial ventilation variables, PEEP was set at 2 cm H2O above the lower inflection point, and serial blood samples were collected during 1-hr ventilation with optimal PEEP. Arterial blood gas analyses were performed at 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 15, 20, 30, 45, and 60 mins. Twenty-five patients were found eligible for the study. Three patients were excluded due to deterioration of oxygen saturation and hemodynamic instability following the initiation of optimal PEEP. Eight cases (36%) were considered to be of pulmonary origin and 14 cases (64%) of extrapulmonary origin. Optimal PEEP levels were 14 +/- 3 cm H2O and 14 +/- 4 cm H2O in pulmonary and extrapulmonary ARDS, respectively. Pao2 demonstrated a 130 +/- 101% increase at the end of 1-hr period in total study population. This improvement did not differ significantly between pulmonary and extrapulmonary forms of ARDS (135 +/- 118% vs. 127 +/- 95%, p = .8). Mean 90% oxygenation time was found to be 20 +/- 19 mins. In the subset of patients with ARDS of pulmonary origin, 90% oxygenation time was 25 +/- 26 mins, whereas it was 17 +/- 15 mins in patients with ARDS of extrapulmonary origin (p = .8). Our data showed that 20 mins would be adequate for obtaining a blood gas sample in ARDS patients with pulmonary and extrapulmonary origin after application of optimal PEEP 2 cm H2O above the lower inflection point.

Is Chest Radiography Necessary After Uncomplicated Insertion of a Triple-Lumen Catheter in the Right Internal Jugular Vein, Using the Anterior Approach?

Chest radiographs are required in many institutions by protocol after the insertion of a right internal jugular vein triple-lumen catheter (TLC), even if the anterior approach is used. This study investigates whether correct placement can be predicted during insertion and whether a "routine" postprocedural chest radiograph can be safely omitted. The operators included 18 first-, second-, or third-year medical residents, 3 pulmonary fellows, and a board-certified pulmonary medicine and critical care attending, with at least 1 certified physician present during the procedure. All operators were trained in the "seven number rule." One hundred consecutive patients who required central venous access. Patients with left internal jugular vein or subclavian catheters were excluded. Single institution, medical ICU, step-down unit, and floors. Right internal jugular vein TLC insertion, anterior approach, with subsequent chest radiograph. Eighty-eight patients had uncomplicated insertions, as defined by fewer than four sticks with a 22-gauge pathfinder needle and fewer than four slides with the 18-gauge introducer needle. Ninety-eight catheters were in accurate position, 1 catheter was in the distal superior cava vein, and 1 catheter was in an S-shaped position. It is safe to omit the routine chest radiograph after uncomplicated insertion of a TLC. i.v. treatment can be initiated early. However, if there is any doubt about the correct position, a chest radiograph should be obtained.

Prognostication and certainty in the pediatric intensive care unit.

Prognostication is central to developing treatment plans and relaying information to patients, family members, and other health care providers. The degree of confidence or certainty that a health care provider has in his or her mortality risk assessment is also important, because a provider may deliver care differently depending on their assuredness in the assessment. We assessed the performance of nurse and physician mortality risk estimates with and without weighting the estimates with their respective degrees of certainty. Subjective mortality risk estimates from critical care attendings (n = 5), critical care fellows (n = 9), pediatric residents (n = 34), and nurses (n = 52) were prospectively collected on at least 94% of 642 eligible, consecutive admissions to a tertiary pediatric intensive care unit (PICU). A measure of certainty (continuous scale from 0 to 5) accompanied each mortality estimate. Estimates were evaluated with 2 x 2 outcome probabilities, the kappa statistic, the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve, and the Hosmer and Lemeshow goodness-of-fit chi(2) statistic. The estimates were then reevaluated after weighting predictions by their respective degree of certainty. Overall, there was a significant difference in the predictive accuracy between groups. The mean mortality predictions from the attendings (6.09%) more closely approximated the true mortality rate (36 deaths, 5.61%) whereas fellows (7.87%), residents (10.00%), and nurses (16.29%) overestimated the mean overall PICU mortality. Attendings were more certain of their predictions (4.27) than the fellows (4.01), nurses (3.79), and residents (3.75). All groups discriminated well (area under receiver operating characteristics curve range, 0.86-0.93). Only PICU attendings and fellows did not significantly differ from ideal calibration (chi(2)). When mortality predictions were weighted with their respective certainties, their performance improved. The level of medical training correlated with the provider's ability to predict mortality risk. The higher the level of certainty associated with the mortality prediction, the more accurate the prediction; however, high levels of certainty did not guarantee accurate predictions. Measures of certainty should be considered when assessing the performance of mortality risk estimates or other subjective outcome predictions.

Evaluation of a pediatric intensive care residency curriculum.

To teach residents to recognize and treat critically ill or injured infants, children, and adolescents in a 1-month, intensivist-designed, second-year resident pediatric intensive care rotation curriculum while maintaining optimal patient care and resident educational satisfaction. Descriptive evaluation of an intensivist-designed, second-year resident pediatric intensive care rotation curriculum from September 1994 to May 1996. Multispecialty 16-bed pediatric intensive care unit (ICU) staffed by five pediatric critical care physicians in a university-affiliated children's hospital supporting a pediatric residency program. None. None. Our second-year resident pediatric ICU rotation curriculum consisted of direct patient care, participation in clinical rounds under the supervision of a pediatric critical care attending physician, and a 1-month formal curriculum. A standardized test evaluated resident pediatric critical care knowledge before and after the pediatric ICU rotation. Number and type of resident procedures were documented. Four-point Likert scale questionnaires were used to evaluate resident educational satisfaction and resident performance. Opportunity cost, the graduate medical education return on educational investment, the critical care attending physician's return on resident investment, and the optimal teaching time for number of rotation residents were calculated. Unit demographics were documented. Data analysis included multivariate analysis, t-test, and chi-squared techniques. Significance was defined as p < .05, rotated factor loading > 0.5, and Eigenvalues > or = 1. Kmeans identified clusters. From September 1994 to May 1996, 71 residents, 34 (48%) from pediatric or medicine-pediatric programs and 37 (52%) from emergency medicine residency programs, participated in our second-year pediatric ICU resident educational process. All residents showed improvement between pretest and posttest knowledge scores (p < .05). Seventy percent of the variance in critical care attending physician evaluations of the residents during their pediatric ICU rotation was based on bedside clinical skills (31%), communication skills (20%), and basic knowledge base (19%). Critical care attending physician evaluations of residents placed residents into three clusters: "hands-on," "well-rounded," or "book-heavy" residents. Prerotation test scores, postrotation test scores, and numbers of procedures performed did not correlate with how critical care attending physicians evaluated overall performances of individual residents. Three factors explained 61% of the variances in resident satisfaction with the pediatric ICU rotation: clinical experience (27%), formal didactics (18%), and text availability (16%). Resident educational satisfaction did not appear to depend on access to procedures. Critical care attending physicians spent a minimum of 12.6 hrs/wk involved in resident education. The opportunity cost for using critical care attending physicians to provide 12.6 resident teaching hours per week was calculated as $111,384/yr. Pediatric ICU patient demographics, morbidity, and mortality did not change during the introduction of the resident educational program in the pediatric ICU. During a required pediatric ICU resident rotation, balancing the resident's educational and decision-making autonomy needs and the critical care attending physician's desire to provide consistent bedside care of the critically ill child is an ongoing interactive process that requires substantial personnel, time, and financial commitments. It is possible to maintain patient care in the pediatric ICU and provide residents with a satisfying pediatric ICU experience. Trends in financial reimbursement may limit our present time commitment to the resident pediatric ICU curriculum.

Central Venous Catheter Placement in Patients With Disorders of Hemostasis

To define the incidence of bleeding complications from central venous access procedures performed by a critical care service in patients with disorders of hemostasis. Prospective, consecutive sample, collection of clinical data. University teaching hospital. Seventy-six consecutive patients with disorders of hemostasis who required central venous access for clinical management between October 1992 and October 1993. Age, sex, clinical diagnosis, most recent platelet count, prothrombin time (PT), and activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT) were recorded from the medical record of patients with known coagulation or platelet abnormalities. The site of central venous catheter placement, the number of needle passes necessary to complete the procedure, and the occurrence of complications were reported by the critical care attending physician performing or supervising the procedure. One hundred four central venous access procedures were performed on 76 patients with disorders of hemostasis. Seventy-three percent of catheters were placed in patients with platelet counts less than 100,000/mL and 40% of catheters were placed in patients with abnormalities of PT, aPTT, or both. Thirteen percent of patients had abnormalities of both platelets and coagulation profile. There were no serious complications. Bleeding complicated 7 (6.5% of the procedures; 5 patients had bleeding from the skin (from the suture sites in four), and 2 patients developed small periosteal hematomas. All patients with bleeding complications had thrombocytopenia with mean platelet counts of 22,000/mL and a range of 6,000 to 37,000/mL. Most patients with platelet counts in this range did not have clinically evident bleeding. Central venous access procedures can be done safely in patients with disorders of hemostasis by skilled physicians who frequently perform these procedures. Patients most likely to experience bleeding from these procedures are patients with severe thrombocytopenia. In this series, only a single patient, with a platelet count of 6,000/mL, required therapeutic blood product administration.

Death and other complications of emergency airway management in critically ill adults. A prospective investigation of 297 tracheal intubations.

Hospitalized patients outside of the operating room frequently require emergency airway management. This study investigates complications of emergency airway management in critically ill adults, including: (1) the incidence of difficult and failed intubation; (2) the frequency of esophageal intubation; (3) the incidence of pneumothorax and pulmonary aspiration; (4) the hemodynamic consequences of emergent intubation, including death, during and immediately following intubation; and (5) the relationship, if any, between the occurrence of complications and supervision of the intubation by an attending physician. Data were collected on consecutive tracheal intubations carried out by the intensive care unit team over a 10-month period. Non-anesthesia residents were supervised by anesthesia residents, critical care attending physicians, or anesthesia attending physicians. Two hundred ninety-seven consecutive intubations were carried out in 238 adult patients. Translaryngeal tracheal intubation was accomplished in all patients. Intubation was difficult in 8% of cases (requiring more than two attempts at laryngoscopy by a physician skilled in airway management). Esophageal intubation occurred in 25 (8%) of the attempts but all were recognized before any adverse sequelae resulted. New infiltrates suggestive of pulmonary aspiration were present on chest radiography after 4% of intubations. Seven patients (3%) died during or within 30 min of the procedure. Five of the seven patients had systemic hypotension (systolic blood pressure < or = 90 mmHg), and four of the five were receiving vasopressors to support systolic blood pressure. Patients with systolic hypotension were more likely to die after intubation than were normotensive patients (P < 0.001). There was no relationship between supervision by an attending physician and the occurrence of complications. In critically ill patients, emergency tracheal intubation is associated with a significant frequency of major complications. In this study, complications were not increased when intubations were accomplished without the supervision of an attending physician as long as the intubation was carried out or supervised by an individual skilled in airway management. Mortality associated with emergent tracheal intubation is highest in patients who are hemodynamically unstable and receiving vasopressor therapy before intubation.

Prevalence and Severity of Neurologic Dysfunction in Critically III Patients: Influence on Need for Continued Mechanical Ventilation

The relative importance of neurologic dysfunction in critically ill mechanically ventilated patients has not been well studied. This study investigates the prevalence of neurologic dysfunction in critically ill mechanically ventilated patients and its influence on preventing the discontinuation of mechanical ventilation and patient outcome. Prospective study. University-based, tertiary care center. All eligible adult patients mechanically ventilated for more than 48 h were included. A total of 66 patients were evaluated. None. Two independent questionnaires, one completed by the critical care attending physician documenting the major clinical factors necessitating continued mechanical ventilation, and a second questionnaire, completed by a critical-care trained neurologist documenting neurologic status and objective cardiopulmonary status formed the basis for outcome measurements. Respiratory and physiologic data, the patient's clinical conditions, and outcome (mortality) were also included in the database. Pulmonary factors were the major reason for prolonged ventilation in only 51 percent of the patient evaluations. Neurologic status was the major factor necessitating continued mechanical ventilation in 32 percent of the patient evaluations and a significant contributing factor in an additional 41 percent. Of the neurologic factors, diminished level of consciousness was the major cause of continued ventilatory support. This was usually due to a systemic illness, rather than a primary central nervous system disorder. Mortality was significantly lower in patients who continued to require mechanical ventilation after 48 h because of neurologic factors as opposed to pulmonary factors (15 percent vs 72 percent, p = 0.002). There is a high prevalence of neurologic dysfunction in critically ill patients and this problem plays a significant role in preventing the discontinuation of mechanical ventilation. Altered mental status is a major factor necessitating continued mechanical ventilation in combined medical-surgical intensive care units.

Critical care pediatrician-led aeromedical transports: physician interventions and predictiveness of outcome.

This article reviews the one-year experience (March 28, 1987 to March 27, 1988) of the pediatric transport service of the University of Wisconsin Hospital and Clinics (UWHC). The UWHC pediatric transport team consisted of a critical care flight nurse and a pediatric critical care attending physician or fellow. The aims of the study were to: 1) determine the types and number of interventions performed by the physicians to gauge the need for physician presence on transport; and 2) determine which variables (severity of illness scores, age, gender, distance from hospital) recorded at the time of the referral telephone call best predicted outcome of the patient. There were 109 children transported by helicopter during the one-year study period. Thirty percent of the patients (43% of trauma patients and 22% of medical patients) had no interventions at all, 18% of medical patients and 10% of trauma patients were intubated, and 9% of medical patients and no trauma patients had central venous catheters inserted. Multivariate modeling determined that among medical patients, outcome could be accurately predicted only 38% of the time if telephone PRISM (Pediatric Risk of Mortality) scores were determined. Among trauma patients, if gender, age, distance from UWHC, and telephone PRISM scores were known, outcome could be predicted 74% of the time. Unless studies show the benefit of pediatrician-accompanied transport, transports could probably be done without critical care pediatricians. Severity of illness scoring at this time is probably not sufficiently accurate to warrant its use for deciding the appropriateness of transport of pediatric patients.

Bedside Percutaneous Tracheostomy in Critically III Patients

Bedside percutaneous dilational tracheostomy was performed by critical care attending physicians or supervised pulmonary and critical care fellows on 100 patients in the ICU at Cook County Hospital, Chicago, over a 3-year period. A needle is inserted in the first or second tracheal interspace followed by a guidewire. The tract is enlarged with a series of dilators to allow placement of a standard tracheostomy tube. Average procedure duration for 46 patients was 6.7 +/- 2.9 min. The intraoperative complication rate was 8 percent: transient oxygen desaturation (4 percent), transient hypotension (3 percent), and paratracheal insertion (1 percent). The postoperative complication rate was 10 percent: bleeding (5 percent), stomal infection (3 percent), and subcutaneous emphysema (2 percent). One patient died of presumed innominate artery rupture. Fifteen of 37 patients who survived hospitalization were decannulated. Stomal closure occurred in 13 of these 15 patients within 3 days with a minimal residual scar. Comparison of percutaneous dilational tracheostomy with two other techniques of percutaneous tracheostomy reveals a similar success rate with a lower incidence of serious complications. Bedside percutaneous dilational tracheostomy can be performed in the ICU by trained physicians with a low complication rate. We believe it to be the procedure of choice for many critically ill patients who require tracheostomies.

Ego bias, reverse ego bias, and physiciansʼ prognostic

To evaluate the effects of "ego bias" on physicians' prognostic judgments. Ego bias is defined as systematic overestimation of the prognosis of one's own patients compared with the expected outcome of a population of similar patients. A prospective study of an inception cohort of critically ill patients followed until death or discharge from the hospital. Consecutive patients admitted to either an ICU or an intermediate ICU at a teaching hospital during January and February 1987, excluding patients admitted after coronary artery bypass grafting, for elective dialysis, or transferred to the intermediate ICU from another critical care unit. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES AND COMPARISONS: House officers' and critical care attending physicians' assessments of the likelihood of inhospital survival for each patient, and their assessments of the overall survival rate of ICU and intermediate ICU patients were compared with each other and with actual survival rates. The attending physicians' predictions for individual patients were significantly lower than their judgments of the overall survival rate, 79.8% vs. 88.0%, p = .0067, suggesting the presence of a "reverse ego bias." The house officers' predictions for individual patients were significantly higher than their judgments of the overall survival rate, 73.5% vs. 68.9%, p = .018, suggesting the presence of ego bias. The magnitude and directions of these differences varied significantly among the attending physicians (F = 4.3, degrees of freedom = 3, p = .0062 by repeated-measures analysis of variance) and the house officers (F = 6.3, degrees of freedom = 5, p = .0001). The critical care attending physicians exhibited reverse ego bias that was mainly a function of their optimism about the overall survival rate for critically ill patients. The house officers exhibited ego bias that was mainly a function of their pessimism about the overall survival rate for critically ill patients.

Are Two (Inexperienced) Heads Better Than One (Experienced) Head?

Inexperienced physicians may make prognostic judgments and management decisions about acutely ill patients in the absence of supervision. We hypothesized that mathematically combining judgments of junior and senior house officers might yield aggregate judgments as good as those made by experienced critical care attending physicians. We obtained independent quantitative assessments of the likelihood of in-hospital survival for 269 sequential intensive care unit admissions from the patient's intern or resident and the critical care fellow and attending physician on duty within 24 hours of admission, and compared these judgements with mortality data. By logistic regression, the residents' and fellows' judgments added independent prognostic information to each other (likelihood ratio chi 2, 7.6; df = 1). The junior house officers' and fellows' assessments were significantly less reliable than the attending physicians' by calibration curves, and by Brier scores, 0.126 and 0.127 vs 0.119. All physicians had good discriminating ability (receiver operating characteristic areas [SE] were 0.83 [0.03], 0.85 [0.03], 0.86 [0.03], respectively). A simple average of the residents' and fellows' judgments was slightly but significantly more reliable by calibration curve and by Brier score, 0.117, and as discriminating (ROC area = 0.85, SE = 0.03) as the attending physicians' judgments. Nonmedical studies have shown that averaging independent judgments may compensate for people's tendency to make extreme estimates, and may take advantage of their complementary abilities. This first medical application of this technique suggests that this form of voting by secret ballot may prove useful for health care teams making other judgments and decisions.

What Difference Do Two Days Make? The Inertia of Physicians' Sequential Prognostic Judgments for Critically III Patients

Medical authorities have asserted the importance of observing a patient's clinical course over time. Distinguished committees have suggested that changes over time in physicians' prognostic estimates should influence decisions to transfer patients out of intensive care units (ICUs). This study evaluated how the opportunity to observe patients over time affected physicians' prognostic estimates for a cohort of 269 critically ill patients sequentially admitted to a medical-surgical ICU in a teaching hospital. As soon as possible after admission and again 48 hours later, the authors obtained a quantitative estimate of the probability of survival through hospital discharge from each patient's house officer and primary attending physician, and the critical care attending physician on duty. They independently determined each patient's survival. From this population they analyzed 181 pairs of judgments made by the same house officers, 211 pairs by the same primary attendings, and 172 pairs by the same critical care attendings. The physicians' 48-hour estimates were little changed from their previous estimates for the same patients. The correlation coefficient for the house officers' paired estimates was 0.84 (p less than 0.0001); for the critical care attendings' estimates 0.84 (p less than 0.0001), and for the primary attendings' estimates, 0.90 (p less than 0.0001). Forty-eight hours did not substantially reduce the disagreements present between estimates made by different physicians for the same patient. No group of physicians substantially improved the reliability or the discriminating power of its later estimates. The physicians in the study could not take advantage of sequential clinical information over time. These results point out the need to teach physicians how to better integrate and process sequential clinical data.

The answer to "What are my chances, doctor?" depends on whom is asked: prognostic disagreement and inaccuracy for critically ill patients.

Physicians often must make prognostic judgments for critically ill patients, but we know little about how well they can perform this task. We prospectively measured disagreements among different physicians' quantitative prognostic judgments for 269 sequential admissions to an ICU, and evaluated the accuracy and discriminating ability of judgments made by different types of physicians. Many (44.7%) patients provoked one or more disagreements of at least 20 percentage points among the three possible pairings of physicians. Many patients whom one physician thought were certain to survive did not inspire such certainty in another of their doctors. The critical care attendings thought the changes of survival were less than or equal to 80% for 23, and between 81% and 95% for another 46 of 85 patients whom the patients' own attendings thought were certain to survive. There were some differences in the accuracy of the different physicians' estimates. All doctors showed excellent overall discriminating ability, but discriminated less well for postoperative patients. Lack of consensus about how to judge prognosis for critically ill patients may make it difficult to decide whom to admit to ICUs. These results underscore the need for valid predictive models to aid in decision-making for critically ill patients.