Published in Oil & Gas Executive, Volume 1, Number 2, 1998, pages 52-56. Managers tend to race headlong into the future while looking in the rearview mirror (how it was done in the past) and out the side windows (how the competition is doing it). Needless to say, this type of management is counterproductive. If managers spend their time solving problems and resolving crises, little time remains for innovation and competitive leaps. Foresight and anticipation are needed for managers to be more productive with the resources and assets they have at their disposal. Change and uncertainty are inevitable, but they need not be terminal. Success, and in some cases survival, will require more sophisticated intelligence systems. We will need greater collaboration between the communicators (public affairs, public relations), the operators (senior managers), and the planners (strategic planning).Additionally, the managerial mindset must refocus from looking at the organization as first and foremost a profit-maximizing, economic entity to an awareness of the strategic significance of staying tuned in to what is happening outside the organization, in the dynamic social, political, environmental, and technological arenas. "For knowing afar off the evils that are brewing, they are easily cured. But, when for want of such knowledge, they are allowed to grow until everyone can recognize them, there is no longer any remedy to be found."—Machiavelli, The Prince (1513) As Machiavelli counseled long ago, being proactive is wise and affords great advantage. Machiavelli did not, however, provide the strategic and tactical skills necessary for an organization to become more proactive and to gain strategic advantage and avoid crises. In our complex and rapidly changing world, becoming anticipatory and gaining strategic advantage requires sophisticated intelligence-gathering techniques, new decision-process models, and practical accountabilities. These tools allow an organization to capitalize on strategic outside intelligence, to avoid being blind-sided by external forces, to profit from new opportunities, and to turn emerging threats into opportunities. Failure to anticipate and to be proactive, on the other hand, can have destructive consequences. Motorola watched its stock drop 30% when a stakeholder group broke its story about neurological damage from cell phones. Audi (Volkswagen) watched the U.S. sales of its highly profitable Audi 5000plummet 84% after being associated in the media with "sudden acceleration incidents." Like Motorola, Audi stood by as if paralyzed by a media attack of its vehicle, which had 10 years of successful technology to support its safety. IBM, General Motors, Westinghouse, Sears, and the Columbia Broadcasting System also failed to anticipate dramatic external shifts in their respective industries and to avoid the crises they signaled.
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