Crisis In Serbia Research Articles

From macroeconomic stability to industrial policies and back: The case of Serbia

After the 2008 economic crisis in the whole civilized world the orthodox model of macroeconomic policies has been under revision. Although the last crisis wave in Serbia was not triggered primarily by macroeconomic policies, it forces economists to question the framework for conducting broad policies in conditions of transitional recession. Without automatic stabilizers broad policies lose their purpose, particularly when massive privatization and financial deregulation take place. Hidden fractures of the uncompleted transition and mistakes inherent to the economic policies force us to develop conceptually wider framework applicable during the crisis as well as in the post-crisis period. In the emerging heterodox model industrial policies lead over broad policies (monetary and fiscal, primarily) with extended set of tenets instead of monetary determinism of orthodox model focused exclusively on two tenets, inflation and output gap, both low and stable. In the orthodox model consumer price inflation (CPI) is approximation for inflation and output gap is defined as the distance from the level of output that would prevail in the absence of nominal rigidities of the economic system. Change of the policies framework is an imperative especially for economies that entered the 2008 economic crisis with structural imbalances and low competitiveness. Main manifestations of structural imbalances in Serbia's economy are twin output gaps (transitional gap +gap by definition) and continuous and strong inflation pressures. Unfortunately, structural imbalances could be easily deepened due to financial crisis and the 'run' on the governments and banks in the EU. The shift from the orthodox model to the heterodox one in case of Serbia is not the matter of economic prosperity in terms of output expansion and competitiveness improvement but the matter of survival. Unlike broad macroeconomic policies that affect the whole economy, industrial policies are sector specific. Namely, industrial policies are directed towards output expansion of industries with tradable goods, by promoting certain sectors for import substitution and/or subsidizing certain export oriented sectors. After output increases through industrial policies, broad economic policies come into play. In many ways, in heterodox model the broad policy measures should remain the same. The main promising routes for improvement are new combination of traditional monetary policies and prudential financial regulation and design of better automatic fiscal stabilizers. In monetary policy automatic stabilizers could be developed in many ways. This article suggests currency board as monetary model for Serbia's economy in which stable and competitive exchange rate play the role of automatic stabilizer. This is what this paper tries to do. Consequently, it proceeds in four steps. The first reviews the genesis of the economic crisis in Serbia and identifies the causes of today's vulnerability. The second and most tentative, takes a new heterodox macroeconomic policy framework (industrial policies lead, broad policies follow). The third identifies industrial policies as an important tool for elimination of structural imbalance causes. The fourth identifies the road map for exit from the crisis.

Unemployment in the Global Economic Crisis in Serbia

Unemployment in the Global Economic Crisis in Serbia

Republic of Serbia: Financial Sector Assessment Program Update: Technical Note on Crisis Management Framework

This Technical Note reviews crisis management framework in Serbia. In light of the banking crisis in Serbia in late 2008 and early 2009, a series of measures were introduced to urgently address stability concerns. The report recommends that crisis management memoranda of understanding (MOUs) be urgently developed with the most important home supervisors. In light of the importance of foreign banks in the Serbian market, it is also paramount that the authorities develop MOUs on crisis management with the home jurisdictions of the largest investors in the country.

The influence of the world economic crisis in Serbia, the measures of the government, the role of the IMF and the trade union response

SEER tries t o stimulate the exchange of information among researchers, trade unionists and people who have a special interest in the political, social and economic development of the region of south-east Europe. The journal tries to draw attention to new research results and the latest analyses about the ongoing process of political and social changes in the south-east of Europe. It tries to create more understanding for the importance of the elaboration of democratic structures in industrial relations. The SEER combines contributions from different disciplines and »political schools« into an information package of interest for policy makers, researchers, academics and trade unionists from various backgrounds. Website: www.seer.nomos.de

Spatial structure changes of cities in the post socialist period

The paper gives the overview of the policy of urban planning in CEE and Southeast Europe during the socialist period. That policy was based on centralistic system which caused specific type of internal structure of the cities. Besides that, the paper compares the changes in the urban planning that took place during the 1990s as the results of global and integrational processes, market rules and privatization, decentralization deindustrialization, commercialization, social segregation etc. These changes are already obvious in urban areas. At the end of the last century unstable policy and economic crisis in Serbia slowed down these processes both the changes in the functional-spatial structure of the cities and especially the changes related to the institutional policy in urban planning.

Mortality trends in Serbia during the 1990s

Mortality trends in Serbia during the 1990s

The period of crisis and kinship relations - in the region of Vranje

This paper represents an attempt to perceive the impact of the socio-economic crisis in Serbia on kinship from the ethnological viewpoint. This paper is primarily intended to point out the manner in which the economic conditions and the specific cultural rules influence the structure of the kinship network and the functioning of kinship relations. The research has been located in the town of Vranje area and its immediate surroundings among the Serb population, and chronologically it includes the period from the end of the eighties to the end of the nineties of the 20th century.