Criminogenic Risk Research Articles

Influence of Mental Health and Substance Use Problems and Criminogenic Risk on Outcomes in Serious Juvenile Offenders

To investigate the relations among certain mental health problems (MHPs; affective, anxiety, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder [ADHD], and substance use disorders), criminogenic risk, and outcomes in a sample of serious adolescent offenders. Using data from a longitudinal study of serious adolescent offenders (N = 949; mean age = 16 years, SD = 1.10 years; 84% male; 78% minority), we evaluated the association of MHPs with three distinct outcomes (rearrest, self-reported antisocial activity, and gainful activity), tested whether having an MHP contributed any unique explanatory power regarding these outcomes over and above criminogenic risk markers, and examined whether MHPs moderated the relationship between risk markers and outcomes. Negative binomial and ordinal regressions were used. Data for the study were derived primarily from youth self-report over a 7-year period, with parent collaterals reporting on ADHD, and official records as the source for rearrest information. Of the sample, 57.5% met the criteria for at least one of the assessed MPHs. The presence of a substance use disorder showed consistent associations with the outcomes. After controlling for risk markers and demographic characteristics, MHPs were not associated with most outcomes. The co-occurrence of a substance use disorder and an MHP moderated the relations between several risk markers and outcomes. Current juvenile justice policies that focus treatment efforts on both criminogenic and mental health factors (with particular emphasis on treating substance use disorders) appear to be well founded. It is unlikely that focusing solely on treating MHPs in serious offenders will have a distinct impact on later outcomes.

SUPERVISION REGIMES, RISK, AND OFFICIAL REACTIONS TO PAROLEE DEVIANCE*

Parolee deviance has emerged as a central issue in policy debates about crime and punishment in American society as well as in scholarship on “mass incarceration.” Although the prevailing approach to studying parolees conceives of parole violations as outcomes of individual propensities toward criminal behavior (i.e., criminogenic risk), we consider how indicators of individual risk and characteristics of formal social control systems combine to account for reported parole violations. Using data on California parolees, we examine the effects of parolees’ personal characteristics, their criminal histories, and the social organization of supervision on parole violations. We advance the notion of a “supervision regime”—a legal and organizational structure that shapes the detection and reporting of parolee deviance. Three components of a supervision regime are explored: 1) the intensity of supervision, 2) the capacity of the regime to detect parolee deviance, and 3) the tolerance of parole officials for parolee deviance. We find that personal characteristics and offense histories are predictive of parole violations. However, we also find that introducing supervision factors reduces the effects of offense history variables on violation risk, suggesting that the violation risks of serious, violent, and sexual offenders are partially explainable through the heightened supervision to which they are subject. In addition, we find that supervision intensity and tolerance are generally predictive of violation risk. Capacity effects are present but weak. We conclude with a discussion of how the supervision regimes concept illuminates the gap between macro‐ and micro‐analyses of social control.

Targeting dispositions for drug-involved offenders: A field trial of the Risk and Needs Triage (RANT)™

Purpose This field trial examined the process of assigning drug-involved offenders to dispositions based on their criminogenic risks and needs. Methods Probation officers administered the Risk and Needs Triage (RANT)™ to 627 felony drug and property offenders at the pre-trial stage or shortly after sentencing to probation. The RANT™ was evaluated for internal scale consistency, factor structure, and predictive validity for re-arrest and re-conviction rates within 12 months of case disposition. Exploratory analyses examined whether recidivism was lower for participants who were assigned to an appropriate disposition given their assessment results. Results The RANT™ demonstrated acceptable internal consistency and factorial validity, and significantly predicted re-arrest and re-conviction rates within 12 months of case disposition. There was no racial or gender bias in the prediction of recidivism. Non-significant trends favored better outcomes for participants who were assigned to the indicated dispositions. Conclusions The results lend support for the RANT™ as a dispositional triage tool for drug-involved defendants and probationers at or near the point of arrest. The results also lend tentative support to the hypothesis that outcomes might be better if drug-involved offenders were matched to appropriate dispositions based on their risk-and-need profiles. Directions for future research are discussed.

Intellectual disability in the Victorian prison system: characteristics of prisoners with an intellectual disability released from prison in 2003–2006

This research seeks to examine both the prevalence of intellectual disability among the prison population in the State of Victoria, Australia and how prisoners with an intellectual disability differ from non-intellectually disabled prisoners on factors relevant to their management and rehabilitation within prison. A sample of prisoners with an intellectual disability (n=102) released from custody between 1 July 2003 and 30 June 2006 was compared with a random sample of non-intellectually disabled prisoners (n=244) released over the same period on a range of demographic, criminal history, offence, custody, and criminogenic risk and need variables. The results demonstrate that while prisoners with an intellectual disability are not over-represented among the Victorian prison population they do differ from non-intellectually disabled prisoners in a number of important ways. Prisoners with an intellectual disability were characterized by significant prior involvement with the criminal justice system, a high risk of re-offending, difficulties moving to minimum security while in prison and in obtaining parole. These findings indicate that prisoners with an intellectual disability are a group with complex histories and needs, who present considerable challenges to the correctional system and the broader forensic disability and disability service systems in their management and rehabilitation.

Risk factors for recidivism in offenders with intellectual disabilities

The literature on risk factors for recidivism in offenders with intellectual disability (ID) is inconsistent and inconclusive compared to the field of mainstream criminality where the predictive efficacy of social psychological and criminological factors is well established (Gendreau, Little & Goggin, Criminology, 34, 575–607, 1996). Criminological variables have also been reported to have superior predictive efficacy over clinical variables in a large meta-analysis of recidivism in other mentally disordered offenders (Bonta, Law, & Hanson, Psychological Bulletin, 123, 123–142, 1998). The current study replicated this finding in a sample of offenders with ID (n=145) discharged from four independent sector medium secure units in the UK between 1990 and 2001. Over a two-year follow-up period criminal history variables were significantly related to general recidivism. A subsequent analysis found the Offender Group Re-conviction Scale, a criminogenic risk assessment instrument designed for use in general offenders, to have excellent predictive efficacy in offenders with ID.

Does Biology Underlie the Oldest Profession? Prostitution and Sex Disparities in John Behavior

This study considers a biosocial explanation of why johns, the purchasers of commercial sex exchanges, are almost exclusively male. Trivers's theory of parental investment and sexual selection predicts that differential parental investment by biological sex will lead to divergent sex-based reproductive instincts. The sex bearing the larger parental investment will tend to be choosier, whereas the sex bearing the lesser investment will tend to be relatively indiscriminate and competitive for access to sexual resources. We hypothesized that men are more likely than women to offer objects of value in exchange for access to sexual resources. Using self-reports of sex-purchasing from Add Health data (N = 14,544), we found that maleness was a robust predictor of john behavior even after controlling for well-known criminogenic risk factors.

Veterans in custody: A small scale needs analysis

As the number of veterans in custody is suspected to increase, limited studies have investigated the criminogenic needs of this population. It is recognised that the needs associated with this minority group of prisoners may differ as a result of their veteran status, and as such it is imperative to acknowledge these needs in view of reducing reoffending rates. Self report measures were used to investigate the prevalence of Intrusive Experiences, Defensive Avoidance and Dissociation (dimensions of Post Traumatic Stress Disorder) and mental health and substance use disorders in five veterans in custody. The data was considered in view of the participants’ experiences of combat, and the witnessing of serious injury or death. The findings highlighted that incarcerated veterans show a need to address their emotional management and past combat duties was associated with such a need. Accommodation and substance misuse were also criminogenic risk factors. Such findings have implications for future research studies using larger sample sizes, comparisons to the general prison population and reducing veterans’ risk of recidivism.

Environmental Moderators of Genetic Influences on Adolescent Delinquent Involvement and Victimization

A growing body of empirical research reveals that genetic factors account for a substantial amount of variance in measures of antisocial behaviors. At the same time, evidence is also emerging indicating that certain environmental factors moderate the effects that genetic factors have on antisocial outcomes. Despite this line of research, much remains unknown about the specific environments that may moderate genetic influences on adolescent delinquent involvement and victimization. The current study addresses this gap in the literature by examining whether 13 criminogenic environments alter the extent to which genes influence delinquency and victimization. Analysis of sibling pairs drawn from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health revealed significant environmental moderation of genetic influences on measures tapping serious delinquency, violent delinquency, and personal victimization. In general, greater exposure to criminogenic risk factors increases the effects that genetic factors have on these three antisocial outcomes. The implications that these findings have for criminological theory and research are discussed.

Snakes and Ladders: Women's Imprisonment and Official Reform Discourse under New Labour

This article reviews the ‘New’ Labour government's threadbare and contradictory penal reformist legacy with regards to women. For most of its period in office, the Labour government (May 1997-May 2010) presided over a growing prison population before belatedly supporting targeted and intensive intervention for ‘at risk’ women. This article accounts for the short-lived reductionist turn in officially sponsored reformist discourse and its attenuation in a loose network of community-based diversionary programs for women offenders. It examines the deployment of imprisonment as a tool for poverty management throughout three terms of Labour government. It then explores the ways in which structural inequalities associated with women's criminalisation and penality have been subsumed into categories of ‘need’, arguing that ‘needs’ talk has facilitated the reframing of social exclusion in terms of potential and actual criminogenic risk. In turn, this has legitimated the role of state and non-state actors in working to divert ‘at risk’ groups of women from criminal pathways. The conclusion considers the recurrent and recursive characteristics of official penal reform discourse.

Re-contextualizing pre-sentence reports

In the past two decades, Canadian policies governing the structure and content of presentence reports (PSRs) have shifted to focus more directly on the systematic identification of offender’s criminogenic risk and needs. In this article, we (1) examine how risk-based approaches to offender management have altered the structure and format of the PSR in Canada, and (2) contrast the structure of risk-based PSRs to Gladue reports for Aboriginal offenders in Canada. Gladue reports are designed to identify the unique systemic race/cultural and historical factors specific to Aboriginal offenders and to recommend alternatives to incarceration. We argue that although risk-based PSRs incorporate recognition of race-related issues, their structure and emphasis on actuarially based risk assessments frames race and risk differently from Gladue reports. In Gladue reports, holistic approaches and cultural impact factors are documented and used to understand risk and need. Finally, we argue that the conceptualization and relevance of race is limited by actuarial risk logic.

The Relationship Between Substance Abuse Treatment and Crime Relapse Among Individuals with Suspected Mental Disorder, Substance Abuse, and Antisocial Behavior: Findings from the MSAC Study

Objective: To explore the relationship between regular substance abuse treatment and criminal recidivism in 403 male offenders with suspected mental disorder and substance abuse. Method: The study is observational, following a cohort of individuals during an observation period of up to 52 months. Individuals participating in planned substance abuse treatment were compared with nonparticipants with regard to crime relapse. Results: Individuals who had completed >6 weeks of substance abuse treatment had a significantly reduced risk (even considering possible and obtainable other criminogenic risk factors) of committing any new crime (HR = 0.346) as well as any new violent crime specifically (HR = 0.325) in comparison to a reference category of those who did not visit substance abuse clinics at all. Conclusion: Among forensic populations, adherence to interventions targeting substance abuse seems to be related to a reduced risk of criminal recidivism.

The Intergenerational Transmission of Low Self-control

There is a vast line of literature showing that antisocial behaviors and personality traits are transmitted across generational lines. Given the ascendancy of Gottfredson and Hirschi’s general theory of crime, it is somewhat surprising that no research has examined whether levels of self-control are passed from parent to child. The authors examine this possibility by analyzing data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study. The results of the analysis revealed that maternal levels of self-control and paternal levels of self-control were predictive of the child’s levels of self-control. Supplemental analysis revealed that these effects were not mediated by key criminogenic risk factors. Moreover, there was also evidence indicating that people mate assortatively on a range of antisocial characteristics, including low self-control. Implications of the study are noted and discussed.

Truancy and Patterns of Criminogenic Risk in a Young Offender Population

This study validated a widely used risk assessment measure, the youth level of service/case management inventory (YLS/CMI), as a predictor of both delinquent reoffense and repeat truancy offenses in a court-involved truant sample (n = 308). The YLS/CMI performed adequately well at predicting delinquent reoffense, yielding an area under the curve (AUC) of .617 (p < .05); however, the analysis did not indicate any significant relationship between the YLS/CMI risk score and the repeat truancy offense. This study also used cluster analysis to identify five combinations of risk factors that were prevalent in the truant sample. These findings have value to justice and education systems as it determined the potential of this instrument as a truancy prevention tool. It also provided a typology system for classifying offenders based on eight domains of criminogenic risk, paving the way for interventions focused on specific patterns of risk found in this subpopulation of juvenile offenders.

Risk Assessment: The Predictive Validity of the Youth Level of Service Case Management Inventory with African Americans and Girls

Risk assessments like the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) are widely used by juvenile justice systems to identify young offenders that are likely to reoffend. These instruments are also used for case management purposes, to determine areas of criminogenic risk that are amenable to intervention. This study explored the risk–recidivism relationship between YLS/CMI score and reoffense rates over 24 months for African Americans (n = 459), Whites (n = 509), boys (n = 694), and girls (n = 274). The YLS/CMI had an area under the curve (AUC) coefficient of .63 overall; however, subgroup differences in distribution of recidivism by risk level were found. Moreover, subscales for the YLS/CMI had differential predictive validity for the respective subgroups. Future study should account for macrolevel risk factors like policing and surveillance levels, which are currently excluded from the assessment.

Treatment outcome following intervention in a prison‐based therapeutic community: a study of the relationship between reduction in criminogenic risk and improved psychological well‐being

172 adult male prisoners were assessed before and after intervention in a UK prison‐based therapeutic community using psychometric measures of psychological well‐being and offence‐related risk. All mean scores changed significantly in the expected direction. For men tested after 12 months or more, concurrent changes occurred in both domains. Significant relationships were also found between parole board assessments of risk reduction and psychometric changes. The study suggests that interventions with offenders can target offence‐related risk and mental health as clinically compatible treatment targets. Interventions with offenders may need to focus on improvements in mental health to enhance participants' readiness to address risk.

Assessing the Risk of Re-Offending for Juvenile Offenders Using the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory

The purpose of the Youth Level of Service Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) is to assess, classify, and assist agencies with developing treatment and service plans according to the offender's criminogenic risk factors. Given the limited research in the predictive validity for this instrument, the current study attempts to examine this issue on a sample of 4,482 juveniles from Ohio who were given sentences in the community or to juvenile institutions. Results demonstrated the validity of the YLS/CMI in predicting recidivism for both settings.

Dialectical behaviour therapy as a treatment for borderline personality disorder in prisons: Three illustrative case studies

Little is known about the effectiveness of treatments for severe personality disorder in prisons. Any treatment within the prison context will aim to reduce criminogenic risk in its participants, and ameliorate the overall symptomatology of the disorder. The over-representation of borderline personality disorder in female prisons has lead to pilots of dialectical behaviour therapy in three such establishments in the UK. This treatment was designed for borderline personality disordered women in the community in the USA, and this is the first time it has been piloted within a UK prison context. It was the treatment of choice as it had the strongest evidence base in lower security settings. Overall findings from the pilots have been very promising in terms of the viability of DBT as an offending behaviour programme and in terms of improving the manageability of prisoners on the wing. The case studies described here aim to illustrate in some detail the cognitive and behavioural change process in individuals over a year of treatment, and at six-month follow-up, and to highlight the particular challenges faced by participants and therapists when delivering treatment in prison. In describing the improvements in all three cases, which vary in terms of symptomatology and background, we aim to demonstrate the versatility of DBT in the prison setting and its capacity for reducing criminogenic risk.

Maternal Cigarette Smoking During Pregnancy and Criminal/Deviant Behavior

A growing body of empirical literature has emerged examining the somewhat inconsistent relationship between maternal cigarette smoking (MCS) during pregnancy and children's subsequent antisocial behavior. To systematically assess what existing studies reveal regarding MCS as a criminogenic risk factor for offspring, the authors subjected this body of literature to a meta-analysis. The analysis reveals a statistically significant--yet rather small--overall mean "effect size" of the relationship between MCS and the likelihood children will engage in deviant/criminal behavior. In addition to being rather moderate in size, the MCS-crime/deviance relationship is sensitive to a number of methodological specifications across empirical studies--particularly those associated with sample characteristics. The implications of this modest, and somewhat unstable, relationship are discussed in terms of guidelines for future research on this subject and how existing theoretical perspectives may be integrated to explain the MCS-crime/deviance link.

Patterns and Prevalence of Arrest in a Statewide Cohort of Mental Health Care Consumers

Patterns and Prevalence of Arrest in a Statewide Cohort of Mental Health Care Consumers

Comparing Sex Offender Risk Classification Using the Static-99 and LSI-R Assessment Instruments

Objective: This study compares sex offender risk classification using two popular actuarial risk assessment instruments—the Static-99 and the Level of Service Inventory–Revised (LSI-R). Despite their extensive use, the two scales assess different types of risk factors and research has yet to compare them. Method: Static-99 and LSI-R risk assessments were compared for 30 adult male sex offenders attending a community-based treatment program. Results: A paired Wilcoxon signed-rank test showed a significant difference (Z = –3.962,p < .001) between the instruments, with 63.3% of the sample classified as higher risk for reoffending by the Static-99 than by the LSI-R. Conclusions: The Static-99 may be a more conservative risk assessment tool. Yet because the LSI-R provides useful information about an offender’s current needs not included on the Static-99, treatment providers should use both instruments. This more comprehensive assessment of criminogenic risk and need will better inform supervision and intervention decisions.