Crime Trends Research Articles

Криминальные угрозы и криминогенные риски преступлений, совершаемых в отношении несовершеннолетних с использованием цифровых технологий

Introduction: the author considers the protection of minors against the negative effects of digital influence, including the criminal threat and criminogenic risks that can be detected in a digitally transformed environment. The search for legal solutions to decrease criminal threat and criminogenic risks is also addressed. Materials and Methods: the study materials included the law providing criminological security of minors, a public opinion poll, and statistical data on police-recorded juvenile crimes committed online. The study employed a variety of methods, including empirical and linguistic methods, scientific and analytical methods, as well as specific juridical methods, such as sociological, juridical, comparative legal, etc. Results of the study indicated that criminal threats and criminogenic risks associated with unsupervised use of the Internet, social networks, and messengers by minors have been on the rise, as evidenced by the upward trend in online crimes committed against minors observed in 2023, similar to the previous years. Currently, the most significant risk is sexual abuse against minors online, as it has the most detrimental impact on the physical, sexual, psychological, and moral development of adolescents. The reduction of this type of crime will necessitate the allocation of special attention and the collaboration of law enforcement with network operators and providers in order to construct a robust and effective system for regulating the consumption of information products by minors. It is of the utmost importance to ensure that the system does not impede the development of the younger generation. Discussion and Conclusions: given the current level of criminal threats and criminogenic risks for minors, including attacks on their biosocial nature online, low detection rates and high levels of latency of this type of crime, it is imperative to improve the educational process for specialists working with minors, as well as for parents. This should include teaching minors themselves to use the Internet, social networks, and messengers. The author devotes particular attention to the inter-agency, intra-agency, and international interaction between law enforcement agencies.

Mathematical Approaches to Crime Data Analysis: Enhancing Evaluation and Prevention Strategies

Crime data analysis is crucial for assessment and prevention. This research study examines mathematical techniques to crime data analysis to find effective ways to identify crime trends and design effective preventative methods. The report opens with an overview of the situation, noting rising crime rates and the need for new analysis. Crime data analysis's historical backdrop, mathematical and statistical methods, technical advances, and theoretical frameworks are covered in a thorough literature review. The study covers data collection, preprocessing, analytical technique selection, model assessment, and validation. Crime data interpretation is tested using predictive modelling, geographical analysis, clustering, classification, and network analysis. Case studies show successful implementations and compare methods. The discussion part discusses the results, crime prevention techniques, and limits and obstacles. Future research suggestions are given. This study summarizes major themes, policy consequences, and future prospects, adding to crime data analytic expertise. This study uses mathematical methods to help law enforcement and policymakers improve crime prevention. Keywords: - Crime Data Analysis, Mathematical Approaches, Predictive Modelling, Spatial Analysis, Crime Prevention Strategies

Criminology characteristics of juvenile crime

An actual problem of society during the existence of criminology is the study of juvenile delinquency. This type of crime has its own specificity, which can be seen in the socio-psychological features and increased attention of society to this category of persons. This indicates the general trends of modern crime and its future development, as well as the state of moral health of society. This paper is devoted to the study of juvenile delinquency. This work indicates the factors that can contribute to the commission of a crime by minors, reveals the statistics of crime among minors, analyzes the state and trends in the detection and disclosure of criminal offenses committed by minors in recent years. A typological group has been determined, which includes juveniles who commit crimes. The need to combat juvenile delinquency is substantiated. The peculiarity of crimes committed by minors is outlined. Determined criminogenic factors of juvenile delinquency. Attention is drawn to the latency of juvenile delinquency, which is a major problem in preventing and countering such delinquency. The age categories of minors who commit crimes are specified. Various types of crimes committed by minors are outlined. Research on juvenile delinquency is always relevant in order to achieve an effective result in preventing juvenile delinquency. Undoubtedly, the issue of juvenile delinquency needs special attention, as well as everything related to minors, in general, needs increased attention from the state and society. It is noted that juvenile offenders constitute a peculiar typological group, they differ from adult criminals both in the nature and degree of social danger of the criminal offenses committed, and in personal traits, namely, insufficient social maturity and incomplete intellectual and volitional development. Factors that may cause a minor to commit a crime are outlined.

Understanding the impact of urban heat islands on crime: insights from temperature, population density, and green canopy cover

Emergent literature suggests that micro- and macro-climates influence criminal behaviour; a complex phenomenon that is still incipient in theory development. This mixed-method research starts with a systematic review of the literature on the theoretical premises that urban heat islands amplify aggressive behaviour and crime. Further, it discusses the potential implications of the relationship between the environment and social outcomes on the design and planning of urban environments. A meta-synthesis was conducted to explain the correlations between patterns of criminal behaviour and thermal (dis)comfort. This correlation is to relate fundamental urban design principles to socially sustainable communities that dissuade violence and crime, and otherwise show poorly designed spaces do propagate criminal behaviour. Cross-validation was undertaken using a case study of Midland, a suburb of Perth, Western Australia. Data involves population demographics, temperature, and crime statistics relating to Offences against the Person. Analysis focused on homicide, assault, threatening behaviour, and robbery. The findings imply a positive correlation between long-term temperature, crime, population density, and green canopy cover. Variables of climate (e.g., short-to-long-term climate-related stressors) and crime types also show non-linear association. Nonetheless, forecasting the future of violence and trends of crime through attributes or potential impacts of heat and urban canopy cover on the built environment will inform sustainable social development policy, environmental planning, development strategy, designers, and planners. Recommendations are made around these in relation to making urban communities adaptive to the impacts of global warming and future densification.

Temporal Wildlife Crime Trend and Sociodemographic Attributes of Offenders in Annapurna Conservation Area, Nepal

Abstract Wildlife crime has emerged as one of the most crucial threats to biodiversity conservation and is particularly severe in south and southeast Asia. Addressing the ever-increasing challenges of wildlife crime in Nepal requires strategies informed by rigorous analysis of spatiotemporal patterns of wildlife crime. However, little do we know about the nature and trends of wildlife crimes in Nepal. Retrieving the information on the registered wild-life crime cases of Annapurna Conservation Area (ACA) from the Annapurna Conservation Area Liaison Office (ACALO) and Kaski District Court, this study assessed the temporal trend and spatial pattern of wildlife crime in the ACA from 1994 to 2019. Additionally, this study assessed the sociodemographic characteristics of the people convicted in wildlife crime cases. A total of 48 cases of crimes were registered over the last 25 years among which the majority of the cases were of poaching and wildlife trophies transportation (89.6%) mainly from Kaski district (60%). For those cases, a total of 132 people were convicted (65% from local villages and 35% from outside the ACA). About 68% of the convicted perpetrators were from Janajati ethnicity with poor economic conditions. These inferences emphasize the necessity of understanding the severity and pattern of the crime to prevent it by synthesizing and implementing conservation programs such as educating targeted groups and providing alternative sources of income.

Eight Focus Crimes in Baguio City During the Post-Covid 19: A Situationer

The study evaluated the crime trends during the post-COVID-19 pandemic, specifically the eight focused crimes identified by the law enforcers in Baguio City. It aimed to assess the changes in the occurrence and frequency of the eight focus crimes and identify the key factors contributing to any shifts in the patterns of these focus crimes during the post-pandemic period. A total of 17 police investigators participated in the study and were selected through purposive sampling. The Eight Focus Crimes include; Murder, Homicide, Physical Injury, Rape, Theft, Robbery, Car theft, and Motorcycle Theft wherein Physical Injuries, Theft, and Robbery were the most reported incidents. The study used documentary analysis and semi-structured interviews to analyze the gathered data. Based on the findings, the key factors that contributed to the shifts in the patterns of these focus crimes during the post-pandemic period were movement and travel restrictions, economic restraints, and the impact of technological advancement.

Mapping the Impact: Property Crime Trends in Kuching, Sarawak, During and After the COVID-19 Period (2020-2022)

This study aims to explore how COVID-19 and the Movement Control Order (MCO) have influenced the trend of property crimes in Kuching, Sarawak spanning from 2020 until 2022. The lockdown imposed by the government had impacted daily activities in Malaysia, including those in Kuching, Sarawak. The methodology employed in this research involves descriptive analysis and spatial analysis, specifically using the Hot Spot Getis GI* technique, with the support of ArcGIS software. It examines relationships between crime and geography. The trend of property crime cases dropped from 1,144 cases (2020) to 813 cases in 2021 and ended with 683 cases in the year 2022. The value of GiZScore from the lowest of 2.066694 to the highest of 13.365677 is from the year 2021. Property crime in Kuching's urban center was targeted even during MCO beginning March 2020 to November 1, 2021. This indicates a notable decrease in property crime trends during the COVID-19 (2020-2021) pandemic period due to the MCO and lockdown which continue to impact into the subsequent endemic era of 2022. This demonstrates the efficiency of the Royal Malaysia Police, particularly in the context of Kuching, Sarawak.

A Developmental and Life-Course Approach to Further Understanding of the Nature and Causes of Intimate Partner Violence and Femicide

The current paper explores the theoretical and empirical capacity of developmental and life-course criminology (DLC) to further our understanding of non-lethal intimate partner violence (IPV) and femicide. Drawing on Sampson and Laub’s age-graded theory and Moffitt’s dual taxonomy, the paper delves into empirical research that has identified and examined the overlap between general offending and IPV, highlighting how these DLC theoretical frameworks could provide insight into non-lethal IPV and femicide. We also outline the ways in which these DLC perspectives are challenged to fully address the gendered nature of IPV and less able to provide an empirical and theoretical understanding of the role of power and control by men over their women partners. We then place these frameworks within the global impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on gender-based violence, including femicide. While the COVID-19 lockdowns increased vulnerability to IPV and increased homicide in the United States, the expected rise in femicide did not materialize—at least within the United States, prompting questions about the extent to which existing criminological theories are able to provide a framework for these types of crime trends during unprecedented events. We examine the way non-lethal and lethal IPV are shaped by different factors as outlined in Moffitt’s dual taxonomy. The pandemic for example did not create increased psychopathy (i.e., affective and personality disorders) associated with the risk for femicide, but the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent lockdowns did create increased economic and family stressors, which placed many at-risk women and children in further social isolation, and reduced access to victim services. We conclude a need for further theoretical development surrounding femicide, integrating developmental and life-course perspectives, thereby emphasizing the need for refined frameworks to address the intricate dynamics of violence against women globally.

Femicide and COVID-19 Pandemic: Examining the Situation in Croatia, Hungary, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Slovenia

Government measures to limit the spread of COVID-19 affected crime opportunities and criminal justice systems, resulting in changes in crime trends. This article explores the effects of restrictions (lockdowns) on the number of femicides. The monthly data on femicides from 2017 to 2021 were collected in five Central and South-eastern European countries: Croatia, Hungary, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Slovenia. The total number of femicides from 2017 to 2021 decreased in all observed countries. Increases were detected in Croatia and Slovenia in 2020. However, they presented an exception to the general trend. The monthly distribution of femicides showed that there was no common point peak month(s) among observed countries. Analyzing the effects of the level of restrictions using the Stringency Index on the number of femicides confirmed the initial observation that the number of femicides was not dependent on lockdown measures. In general, the findings show that restriction measures had no effect on the number of femicides in the studied countries.

Crime Analysis and Prediction

Data Mining in Crime analysis is a systematic approach to identifying and analyzing patterns and trends in crime. With the increasing adoption of computerized systems, Data Mining in Crime analysis can assist law enforcement in predicting crime. This technique plays a key role in cyber forensics. Cyber forensics involves the collection and analysis of digital evidence to detect and document a cybercrime or security breach. Data mining techniques can help investigators extract valuable insights from the large volume of data typically collected during a cyber forensics investigation. Keywords: Data mining, crime, pattern, analysis, cyber, Forensics, detect, document, breach, security.

Smart city planning focused on the US cities in need of policing innovations and public health safety technologies and strategies

The issue of firearm-related injuries, deaths and crime in the United States is of particular relevance. Every year, about 32,000 lives are lost as a result of firearm-related incidents, including self-inflicted injuries. Other 74,000 people suffer non-fatal gunshot wounds. Addressing this multi-faceted problem is possible through a comprehensive and integrated approach that encompasses public health initiatives, law enforcement efforts, and security measures. In the context of solving this problem, the concepts of “community-oriented policing”, “problem-oriented policing”, “broken windows theory”, “smart city social sustainability initiative” (multi-system improvement and meeting the needs of marginalised residents), “feedback methodology”, etc. are thoroughly considered. The author proposes the strategic deployment of mini-police stations in areas with a high crime rate as proper centres of police visibility and a deterrent to criminals. To realise this task, it is necessary to integrate the latest approaches to Smart Urban Development with innovative urban planning technologies that would increase the influence of law enforcement agencies in the process of protecting public health and safety in cities. In particular, the article proposes the following for implementation: identifying crime hotspots by means of advanced geographic information systems, applying machine learning algorithms to predict future crime trends, using advanced real-time surveillance technologies and firearms detection systems, applying geospatial analysis to optimise patrol routes, dynamically adjusting patrol routes depending on real-time data analytics, deploying mobile command centres. As a result, law enforcement agencies can effectively communicate to potential criminals that their actions will not go unnoticed. They may achieve significant success in improving the overall quality of life of residents in such areas. Also, they will create safer communities, and reduce the number of incidents involving the use of firearms.

Criminological Insights: A Comprehensive Spatial Analysis of Crime Hot Spots of Property Offenses in Malaysia's Urban Centers

This study examines property crime trends in Selangor, Kuala Lumpur, and Putrajaya from 2015 to 2020, utilizing Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and comprehensive crime data from the Royal Malaysia Police. It focuses on the relationship between property crime rates and the delineation of police station jurisdictions across Selangor State, Kuala Lumpur Federal Territory (KLFT), and Putrajaya Federal Territory (PFT). The objective is to understand the dynamics of property crime, its evolution, and the influence of the National Transformation Program on crime prevention strategies. By assessing the spatial distribution of property crimes, this research aims to identify underlying trends and the efficacy of hot spot policing. The analysis is underpinned by an extensive review of secondary data from the Intelligence/Operations/Records Division of the Royal Malaysia Police Headquarters, enabling a deep dive into the spatial characteristics of property crime within these regions. The findings contribute to the broader understanding of crime prevention in Malaysia, underscoring the importance of GIS technology and the need for strategic interventions tailored to specific crime patterns. This study provides critical insights for policymakers and law enforcement to formulate evidence-based strategies, enhance public safety, and inform future crime prevention efforts.

Temporal Observations of Crime Dynamics

The study of crime dynamics is a vital element of its criminological analysis. At the same time, crime dynamics is hardly recognized as an independent research problem. The traditional approach consists of extending the period of observation over crime statistics and mainly results in the increase of the representative value of data on the current state of criminality; it does not, however, help to identify its criminologically relevant trends — long-term regularities and deviations from them. This problem could be solved by a methodological synthesis of the opportunities presented by criminology and history, and the development of historical criminology on their basis, viewed as an independent trend in the scientific research of crime. Modern crime, however «modern» might be interpreted, should be understood not as an object within arbitrarily chosen time limits, but as one of the fragments of the general development of criminality as a never-ending social process. The boundaries of the concept “modern crime” should be determined based on the research of criminality itself going as far back as it is possible. Inclusion of modern criminality in the general logic of this process, and, most importantly, understanding this logic is the primary task for a criminologist studying the issues of crime dynamics. Unfortunately, it should be stated that the interpretation of crime dynamics does not have any rigid theoretical basis and is not represented as an independent theoretical concept in criminology. The attempts to interpret crime dynamics through references to criminogenic and anti-criminogenic factors, the extension of the range of known facts do not bring any new understanding because they explain the genesis, but not the trends of crime. To study the trends, understand the causes of their formation and the reasons why criminality deviates from them, to recognize some or other change in criminality as a long-term trend or a deviation, it is necessary to turn to social and, often, non-criminological factors more connected with the spheres of sociology and history.

Justice : A Predicting Criminal Acts According To IPC Section

The AI-driven IPC Section Prediction for Crime Classification project is a groundbreaking initiative with far- reaching implications for the legal and law enforcement sectors in India. Traditional crime classification and the assignment of the appropriate IPC section are often time-consuming and prone to human error. Our web application addresses these challenges by offering an efficient, accurate, and user-friendly solution. One of the key strengths of our application lies in its adaptability. It can process a wide range of crime descriptions, including those involving complex legal language or colloquial terms, ensuring its utility in diverse scenarios. Additionally, our system is designed to continuously learn and evolve. It adapts to changes in legal terminology, updates in the IPC, and emerging crime trends, thereby maintaining its relevance and precision over time. The social impact of this project cannot be overstated. By streamlining crime classification, it empowers law enforcement agencies to allocate resources more efficiently and prioritize cases based on severity and relevance. It also aids legal professionals by expediting case preparation and documentation. Moreover, it facilitates greater public engagement with the legal system, enabling citizens to better understand and navigate the complexities of the IPC. In conclusion, our AI-driven IPC Section Prediction web application is a pioneering tool that has the potential to revolutionize crime classification and legal processes. Its adaptability, continuous improvement, and positive societal impact make it an asset for law enforcement, legal practitioners, and the general public alike.

Post-pandemic crime trends in England and Wales

This study of recorded crime trends in England & Wales spans three and a half years, that is, two covid pandemic years from March 2020 and 18 ‘post-pandemic’ months following cessation of covid restrictions. Observed crime rates were compared to expected (based on 5-year ARIMA models) and the ambient population (using Community Mobility Reports). It finds that, In Year 1, observed rates diverged dramatically from expected, waxing and waning generally in line with the movement restrictions of three national lockdowns. In Year 2, movement restrictions loosened and observed crime rates moved towards but mostly remained far from expected. In post-pandemic Year 3, people’s movement increased and observed crime rates continued towards expected. By mid-Year 4 many rates remained below expected levels, their mean monthly differences including: theft from person (− 22%); burglary (− 20%); vehicle crime (− 29%); violence & sexual offences (− 27%); robbery (− 16%) and; public order offences (− 21%). An exceptional increase in shoplifting achieved 20% above expected rates by August 2023. Methodological limitations and further research on shoplifting and other issues are discussed. The main conclusion is that crime trends generally followed ambient population movement and that enduring lifestyle changes in the post-pandemic period, notably increased work-from-home, account for continuing below-expected rates of many crime types.

Analytical Capabilities of Statistical Methodology for Assessing Threats to Economic Security

Analytical Capabilities of Statistical Methodology for Assessing Threats to Economic Security

Interpol activities against environmental crime

The article focuses on describing the main areas of Interpol’s activities in combating environmental crime. It is indicated that Interpol’s activities in combating environmental crime include the following areas: crimes against wildlife, crimes in the field of fisheries, crimes in the field of forestry, pollution and related crimes. It is noted that an extensive structure has been created within the Organization to combat these crimes. In particular, a group responsible for combating environmental crimes was created - the Environmental Security Programme (ENS). The ENS aims to assist member states in effectively enforcing national legislation and international environmental law, as well as to ensure law enforcement cooperation, combine the efforts of various government agencies and encourage coordinated cross­border actions to maintain environmental security. It is noted that the activities of ENS are closely interrelated and supported by the Environmental Compliance and Enforcement Committee (ECEC). The ECEC helps INTERPOL to identify emerging patterns and trends in environmental crime and develop law enforcement responses to address identified threats; it acts as a strategic advisory group of INTERPOL on policy development and project implementation related to the prevention and suppression of environmental crime and law violations. It is emphasised that the ECEC has four working groups on crimes: Fisheries (FCWG), Forestry (FoCWG), Wildlife (WCWG) and Pollution (PCWG). Each group brings together forensic scientists and experts from around the world who work on threat-based activities and provide the Committee and INTERPOL with expert advice on how to respond to various threats. It is noted that INTERPOL also provides a range of other tools and services in the field of combating environmental crime: the I-24/7 system, notices, ecomessages, Regional Investigative and Analytical Case Meetings (RIACMs), Investigative Support Teams (ISTs), operations, National Environmental Security Task Forces (NeSts) etc.

Importance of culture in measuring tribal crime seriousness: scoping review of crime seriousness indices

Understanding crime trends provides policymakers with needed information to effectively use scarce resources to keep communities safe. Native nations in the US, who retain criminal and civil jurisdiction on their lands, rely on national data collected by the federal government with little tribal input. These data may not accurately reflect the community’s situation or the values they hold. Developing a tribal crime seriousness index may provide an elegant way to bridge this gap. This paper catalogs and identifies the methods for developing crime seriousness indices and provides a critical discussion of the role culture plays in the conceptualization of crime.

Studying Travel Networks Using Establishment Covisit Networks in Online Review Data

Whenever someone posts an online review of a restaurant, museum, or barbershop, they also leave a trace of where they traveled. The author visualizes travel patterns in 11 North American metropolitan areas using geolocated review data. The data are based on approximately 7 million online Yelp.com reviews posted by 2 million reviewers between 2005 and 2020. First, the author demonstrates how individual travel patterns can be mapped using the review data and discusses the potential applications of such individual-level data. The author then turns to aggregate-level maps, creating establishment covisit networks in which two establishments are linked if multiple reviewers visit both. Maps of establishment covisits reveal various intriguing patterns related to consumption and geography, such as the connections between neighborhoods and the centralization and segregation within a metropolitan area. Establishment covisit maps can also inform researchers about the diffusion of ideas and practices, trends in crime, and gentrification.

The Effect of Covid-19 Pandemic on Crimes in The Province of Isabela

This paper focuses on the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on crimes, particularly on the prevailing crimes, crime trends, crime schemes or commissions, and the Police response to the crimes between non-pandemic and pandemic periods. The study used an explanatory sequential approach to reciprocally support groups of data. The quantitative data is taken from the PNP Crime Information Reporting and Analysis System (CIRAS) of cities and selected municipalities affected by COVID-19 in the Province of Isabela. The qualitative data were collected through a semi-structured interview with the Chief of Police and investigators of the station. The study revealed that homicide, rape, violation of RA No. 11332, and vehicular incidents were the most committed. Intoxication is the key player in crimes and a shift to the subject was noted. The upward trajectory of crime during the pandemic was interconnected with the violation of the Republic Act (R.A.) No. 11332 through disobedience and arrogance to the person in authority. Income-related crimes are noted to have just emerged while work-and-business-related crimes have gone during the pandemic. The crime trend shows that if the pandemic persists, crimes dynamically trail an upward trend. The PNP in the Province of Isabela strictly adheres to its mandates and shows resiliency in pandemic crimes and COVID-19.