Crime Risk Research Articles

Crime risk assessment through Cox and self-exciting spatio-temporal point processes

Crime risk assessment through Cox and self-exciting spatio-temporal point processes

The Need for Integrated Crime Risk Assessment Systems Using Data-Driven Strategies for Crime Prevention in Malaysia

The Need for Integrated Crime Risk Assessment Systems Using Data-Driven Strategies for Crime Prevention in Malaysia

Burying the head in the sand a bit deeper?

This article follows from the 2022 publication of a book by the same author on financial malpractices in the world of professional football, titled Ostrageous. As the title suggests, that book both covered the outrageous business patterns and habits – and the associated financial crime risks – that have manifested themselves in this line of industry and our inclination to turn a blind eye to these developments (portrayed by the image of the ostrich). The article focusses on the aftermath of the publication of the book and addresses the main reasons why the image of the ostrich has turned out to be even more powerful than the author thought at first sight. While the book has led to a vivid debate in the academic world on the future of professional football, the professional football industry itself remained reluctant in accepting invitations to discuss the crime problems in the sector more in depth. In the second part of the article, the author suggests some strategies that may contribute in making the market of European professional football more receptive to a constructive debate about the astronomical transfer fees, the ease in which extremely wealthy investors can buy their way into clubs, the schemes used to evade tax or launder illegal assets, and a number of other structural problems facing the industry.

Crime radiation theory: the co-production of crime patterns through opportunity creation and exploitation

AbstractConsiderable research shows that crime is concentrated at a few proprietary places: addresses and facilities. Emerging research suggests that proprietary places may radiate crime: activities at a place increase the risk of crime in the area around it. Weaknesses in the research create uncertainty about radiation, so we need more rigorous research. To conduct this research, we need a theory of crime radiation that operates at two spatial levels: the proprietary place and the area. This paper describes such a theory. Our theory states that crime radiation stems from the interaction between place management decisions at the place and offenders searching for opportunities in the area. Place managers create crime opportunities inside and outside their places. Offenders exploit place managers’ creations by deliberately searching for opportunities or by chancing upon the opportunities. The ways place managers and offenders interact gives rise to three types of crime radiation: hot dot, veiled dot, and cold dot. Finally, we propose questions crime scientists should answer to better understand crime radiation.

Temperature, Crime, and Violence: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Heat is known to affect many health outcomes, but more evidence is needed on the impact of rising temperatures on crime and/or violence. We conducted a systematic review with meta-analysis regarding the influence of hot temperatures on crime and/or violence. In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we evaluated the relationship between increase in temperature and crime and/or violence for studies across the world and generated overall estimates. We searched MEDLINE and Web of Science for articles from the available database start year (1946 and 1891, respectively) to 6 November 2023 and manually reviewed reference lists of identified articles. Two investigators independently reviewed the abstracts and full-text articles to identify and summarize studies that analyzed the relationship between increasing temperature and crime, violence, or both and met a priori eligibility criteria. PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) guidelines were used to extract information from included articles. Some study results were combined using a profile likelihood random-effects model for meta-analysis for a subset of outcomes: violent crime (assault, homicide), property crime (theft, burglary), and sexual crime (sexual assault, rape). This review is registered at PROSPERO, CRD42023417295. We screened 16,634 studies with 83 meeting the inclusion criteria. Higher temperatures were significantly associated with crime, violence, or both. A 10°C (18°F) increase in short-term mean temperature exposure was associated with a 9% [95% confidence interval (CI): 7%, 12%] increase in the risk of violent crime (; eight studies). Studies had differing definitions of crime and/or violence, exposure assessment methods, and confounder assessments. Our findings summarize the evidence supporting the association between elevated temperatures, crime, and violence, particularly for violent crimes. Associations for some categories of crime and/or violence, such as property crimes, were inconsistent. Future research should employ larger spatial/temporal scales, consistent crime and violence definitions, advanced modeling strategies, and different populations and locations. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP14300.

Financial crime risk assessment: machine learning insights into ownership structures in secrecy firms

ABSTRACT This study examines the relationship between corporate secrecy and financial crime, presenting an analytical framework to strengthen risk assessment efforts. We develop secrecy indicators using corporate ownership data from over 2.6 million firms across eight European countries. These indicators are validated using machine learning models built upon evidence of crime committed by firms and/or their owners. The results demonstrate robust predictive power: firms with complex structures and owners from high-risk jurisdictions show a higher likelihood of engaging in illicit activities. Incorporating macro-level information, such as geographic location and economic sector, enhances the understanding of this phenomenon. These findings advance empirical knowledge about the nexus between secrecy firms and crime, offering anti-money laundering authorities novel machine learning tools for effective risk assessment.

Size isn't everything: Understanding the relationship between police workforce and crime problems

If and how policing affects crime has long been studied. On the relationship between police force size and crime, different authors come to different conclusions. This study examines the relationship between police resourcing, including workforce size, structure and stability over time using data for 42 police forces in the UK over a 13-year period.We construct two novel panel datasets. The first comprises measures of police workforce Size, Structure and Stability. The second provides measures of both crime frequency and crime severity. Issues of endogeneity make the modelling of the police-crime association complicated. Consequently, we analyse the data using a panel vector autoregression (PVAR) model which is capable of forecasting a temporal sequence of the interdependencies between police-crime relationships.Changes in total police personnel play an important role in reducing both crime frequency and severity, but the findings are more nuanced than this. Results highlight that the structure and stability of police organisations are important although these impacts are not always the same for crime volume and crime severity. We find that increases in frontline (non-sworn) support staff are associated with reductions in crime, while turnover rates of police staff are associated with increases in crime. In contrast, changes to the number of sworn police officers do not appear to be a good predictor of crime volume.The findings suggest that investment in frontline support staff and the development of strategies to retain skills and knowledge by reducing staff turnover may be efficient approaches for Police Forces to maximise the impact on crime of their workforce in resource-pressed policing settings. While previous research has found that police force size has a limited effect on crime, our findings indicate that more nuanced measurements of police resourcing are necessary to understand how police impact upon crime risk. The idea of police forces using basic officer-to-population ratios to make staffing decisions appears outdated and over-simplistic.

‘My trust in strangers has disappeared completely’: How hate crime, perceived risk, and the concealment of sexual orientation affect fear of crime among Swedish LGBTQ students

Previous research has established correlations between anti-LGBTQ hate crime, fear of crime, perceived victimization risk, and the concealment of sexual orientation. Aside from correlations, the relationships between these variables remain poorly understood. Therefore, the aim of the present study is to explore the relationships between anti-LGBTQ hate crime, perceived risk, and the concealment of sexual orientation in relation to fear of crime. Based on previous research and theory, the authors hypothesize (1) that experiences of hate crime victimization increase fear of crime, perceived victimization risk, and the concealment of sexual orientation; (2) that high levels of perceived risk result in high fear of crime and a more prevalent concealment of orientation; and (3) that the concealment of sexual orientation results in lower fear of crime. The sample consists of LGBTQ students enrolled at a Swedish university. The study uses a mixed method approach, combining survey data ( N = 353) and interview data ( N = 10). The data are assessed using path analysis and thematic analysis. The path analysis supported the authors’ hypothesis regarding experiences of anti-LGBT hate crime, perceived risk, and fear of crime. The qualitative analysis showed that victims of hate crimes had a reduced ability to process negative emotions because they experienced other traumatic life events parallel to the victimization. Similarly, feelings of being reduced to a negative stereotype resulted in higher levels of both fear of crime and perceived risk. Finally, the path analysis rejected the hypothesis that the concealment of sexual orientation results in lower fear of crime. Rather than being an agency-driven and functional fear response, the interview data showed that while these practices reduced victimization risk, they negatively impacted the overall health of the participants through feelings of lack of authenticity and self-censorship.

Criminology and Social Impact in The Age of Artificial Intelligence [AI

The use of technology has permeated all facets of life, and brought about both positive and negative effects. Criminology as a fields has not been left behind and criminologists are developing various technological tools, including Artificial Intelligence (AI) models to use in detecting, managing and preventing criminal activities. This is a significant step considering that criminals have also found it convenient to use technology as a tool for perpetuating their activities. This paper focused on the adoption of AI in criminology, exploring the attendant benefits of its adoption; the negative social impact of its use and interventions that should be put in place to curb the negative ramification. Some of the beneficial use discussed in the paper include predictive policing, and crime risk assessment, which aids in preventing occurrence of criminal activities. However, the use of these AI models, while beneficial to these criminological functions have presented significant social implications, which include bias and discrimination that perpetuate social stereotypes; privacy breach that lead to the victimization of innocent people; opaque decision making that lead to distrust in the output by the AI tool; and unfair distribution of employment opportunities. The paper concluded that the adoption of AI in criminology is inevitable considering the digital era in which we are currently living in. However, while the benefit of the use of these technologies are varied and welcome, there is a need for ensuring that the legal, social and ethical concerns are adequately addressed. The paper, therefore, recommended the establishment of robust regulatory framework that guide the use of the AI models by law enforcement agencies; the integration of the use of the AI tools with human oversight; the inclusion and transparency and accountability in the operationalization of the tools; collaboration amongst the stakeholders. This paper has used recent extant literature to examine the intersection between criminology and social impact with respect to the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI)

Antecedents of Compliance with Anti-Money Laundering Regulations in the Banking Sector of Ghana

This study examines factors influencing Ghanaian banks’ compliance with anti-money laundering (AML) legislation. Drawing upon institutional, compliance, and dynamic capability theories, the study identifies the interplay of organisational, regulatory, and employee factors influencing compliance outcomes. A mixed methods approach was used to collect data from 23 universal banks, 9 local and 14 foreign, in Ghana, focusing on experienced managers and employees in risk, legal, operations, compliance, and business development departments. The findings show that employee characteristics like due diligence and moral involvement have a positive relationship with compliance with AML regulations; however, contrary to expectations, effective AML/CFT programs did not significantly impact banks’ adherence to these regulations. The association between moral engagement, an innovative culture, and AML compliance is weakened by normative power and an innovative culture acting as negative moderators. This study contributes empirical evidence to the literature on AML compliance in emerging markets and offers practical implications for policymakers, regulators, and banking professionals seeking to boost regulatory effectiveness and mitigate financial crime risks. This study provides a foundation for targeted interventions and strategic initiatives aimed at strengthening the AML regulatory landscape in Ghana and other countries.

The relation of spatial configuration in residential real estate towards its conduciveness security level

As a part of an area, residential real estate has various spatial configuration patterns, which are part of the elements that form its environment. Depending on the context of certain places, spatial configuration and security reinforcement become a concern regarding the issue of crime prevention, which promotes a safe neighbourhood that avoids the risk of crime. A phenomenon took place where there are several preventive actions were carried out at the basic stage of planning and designing residential real estate, but these efforts later brought various methods and priorities that determine spatial configuration or security reinforcement to serve either as the main reference or adjustment at the initial step. This research dissects the relationship between spatial configuration patterns and security systems applied using the Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design (CPTED) approach to obtain the most optimal solution in preventing crime and reducing crime rates. This research used descriptive analytical methods in a comparative way to derive the final synthesis of three residential real estates in Bintaro Jaya as study objects. The results of this research discovered the most conducive type of residential real estate in terms of its security level. These findings can enrich the development of studies on similar topics and contribute to the consideration of design criteria related to spatial configuration and security reinforcement of residential real estate in anticipating potential crimes.

Analysing the characteristics of post-disaster funding that make it susceptible to the risk of economic crime: a South African frame of reference

Analysing the characteristics of post-disaster funding that make it susceptible to the risk of economic crime: a South African frame of reference

Crime against women in India: district-level risk estimation using the small area estimation approach.

The global prevalence of crimes against women has made it an enduring public health challenge that has persisted over time. The achievement of the 2030 Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) is intricately tied to the actions taken to prevent these crimes as their repercussions directly affect progress across various SDGs. This study aimed to provide a comprehensive examination of the prevalence of crimes against women across districts and states in India, analyzing changes from 2020 to 2022, and subsequently identifying associated factors. The study is an ecological analysis conducted across all districts of India using the data on crimes against women for the period 2020 and 2022 obtained from the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) of India. A small area estimation method was used to obtain district-level relative risks of crime against women for both periods. Hotspot analysis was carried out to identify the current hotspots and coldspots. Further spatial regression was used to identify the factors associated with crimes against women in the year 2022. The results indicated a rise in the reported crime against women cases between 2020 and 2022. The rate of crimes against women at the national level was found to be 57 in the year 2020, whereas, in 2022, it increased to 67. The highest crime rate in the year 2022 was found to be 145 in Delhi, while Nagaland had the lowest crime rate of 5. The relative risk of crime against women varied from 0.046 to 4.68 in 2020, while in 2022, it spanned from 0.02 to 6.10. Significant hotspots were found in parts of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Haryana, Telangana, and Odisha. The results of the spatial error regression model showed that the sex ratio and the population density of the district have significant associations with the occurrence of crimes against women. The rise in the incidence of crime against women emphasizes the importance of tackling the spatial inequality in relative risk across Indian districts. By thoughtfully addressing this variation and conducting targeted studies in high-risk areas, we can enhance our understanding of the obstacles to implementing effective measures against violence targeting women.

An analysis of measures to combat the risk of economic crime associated with post-disaster funding in South Africa

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyse the measures that could be taken to combat the risk of economic crime in the aftermath of South African disasters. Design/methodology/approach This paper used secondary sources including, but not limited to, institutional reports, newspaper articles and peer-reviewed academic journal articles. Findings The COVID-19 pandemic was used as an example in this paper to discuss the susceptibility of post-disaster funding to the risk of economic crime and to assess how the South African government attempted to combat this risk during the pandemic. The Auditor-General of South Africa (AGSA) conducted a real-time audit of the government’s essential COVID-19 initiatives in collaboration with the newly established Fusion Centre. Through their collaborative efforts, they successfully identified mismanaged funds, facilitated the recovery thereof and prosecuted individuals and entities involved. This paper found that to proactively combat economic crime in future post-disaster events, the collaborative use of the AGSA and the Fusion Centre, in conjunction with existing bodies established under the Disaster Management Act, should be considered. Originality/value This paper contributes to the body of knowledge in disaster risk management and forensic accountancy. As the frequency of disasters is expected to increase in the future, so will the economic crime risk associated with post-disaster funding. This paper demonstrates that post-disaster funding is especially susceptible to the risk of economic crime and it is therefore important to research methods to combat this problem and prevent further losses.

Environmental Protections During Armed Conflict as Supportive Mechanisms for the Prevention of Atrocity Crimes

Abstract The potential exacerbating impact of environmental damage incurred during armed conflict has gained increasing attention in regional and international fora. The links between conflict and the environment are indirect, but irrefutable. Environmental damage further has the potential to adversely affect risk factors associated with atrocity crimes. It is necessary to consider adequate environmental protections to avoid serious and negative long-lasting effects, and to prevent the exacerbation of conflicts into atrocity crimes. The vulnerability of the population generally and the environment is evident in armed conflict. This article explores the nexus between environmental damage and atrocity crimes generally before considering existing environmental protections during armed conflict and opportunities for progressive development. It argues that the enhancement of existing international legal obligations either through additional protections or improved implementation measures is necessary to protect the environment and contribute to the reduction of the risk of atrocity crimes.

Tax Crime Risk in Mining Sector Companies : An Examination of Transfer Pricing Analysis and Capital Intensity

This research investigates how capital intensity and transfer pricing may affect the likelihood of tax offenses in the mining industry. The report uses a sample of mining businesses listed from 2018 to 2022 on the Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX) and using a quantitative research technique. The research examines the links between the dependent variable, which is represented by the cash effective tax rate (CETR), and the independent variables, transfer pricing (TP) and capital intensity (CAP), using multiple regression analysis and a legal approach. The corporations' transfer pricing methods and CETR vary significantly, according to descriptive data, indicating intricate dynamics in their tax management techniques. The results show a positive but statistically insignificant association between transfer price and CETR, which is consistent with contradictory findings from earlier research that supported and refuted the relevance of this relationship. The study's findings are important to policymakers because they imply that, despite transfer pricing's existence, its effect on tax evasion could not be as significant or clear-cut as previously thought. This realization necessitates a more sophisticated approach to mining industry compliance and regulatory frameworks, especially in environments like Indonesia. To get a deeper understanding of the changing dynamics of capital intensity and transfer pricing in influencing tax policies, future study should broaden its scope and include a wider range of factors over a longer time period.

The Role of Information Governance in Mitigating Financial Crime Risks in Stablecoin Transactions

This study investigates the role of information governance in mitigating financial crime risks in stablecoin transactions. Using a variety of analytical techniques, including simple linear regression, sentiment analysis with NLP tools, logistic regression, and machine learning models, the research evaluates the impact of information governance on innovation, user trust, financial crimes, and the effectiveness of combined compliance measures. The findings indicate that strict information governance regulations reduce innovation but enhance market stability and user trust. Robust governance correlates strongly with increased user adoption, while higher anonymity features in stablecoins are linked to a higher incidence of financial crimes. Integrating KYC/AML compliance with transaction monitoring significantly improves the detection and prevention of financial crimes compared to standalone approaches. These insights provide valuable guidance for policymakers, regulatory authorities, and financial institutions to develop strategies that balance innovation with enhanced security and compliance in the stablecoin market.

Kebijakan Perlindungan Data Pribadi Dalam Menanggulangi Kejahatan Lintas Negara di Era Ekonomi Digital

The Digital Economy Era as a driver of economic growth in Indonesia has penetrated almost all aspects of life. The rapid development of the digital economy has the potential to create risks and challenges in the future. The widespread use of digital technology in electronic transactions has made information no longer limited as a medium for transactions and communication, but rather a source of profit in the economy. Personal data information is not always used correctly, and can even be misused by irresponsible parties. Facing this, the importance of protecting personal data in electronic transactions, by strengthening a digital- based security system to mitigate the risk of crime in the digital economy era.

The Use of Blockchain Technology in Public Health: Lessons Learned.

Blockchain is a new technology utilized to develop creative solutions in different industries, such as health care. Blockchain is a decentralized and distributed encrypted system made up of interconnected blocks containing transaction-related information that can be shared with network participants. A blockchain network is utilized in the healthcare industry to safeguard and share patient information among hospitals, pharmacies, and doctors' diagnostic labs. Blockchain applications can precisely identify serious and potentially harmful mistakes within the medical sector. The objective is to comprehensively explore the potential use, present implementations, challenges, and future possibilities of blockchain in health management systems, and to provide information to researchers, policymakers, and practitioners on how to utilize new technology to enhance data security, efficiency, decentralization of data, authenticity of data, transparency, and verifiability of data compared to conventional databases in health management systems. Key review findings for blockchain technology in public health surveillance might include enhanced data security and accessibility of data, data storage and sharing, ensuring tamper-proof records are accessed, empowering patients, and improving overall healthcare outcomes. Its immutability proves to be important for securing healthcare data. It offers a safeguard for health records and clinical trial outcomes and ensures compliance with regulatory standards. This evaluation focuses on how it has transformed data protection, improved workflows, and safe health information interchange. Despite obstacles, further study and standardization initiatives have the potential to transform health care and guarantee patient care that is resilient and trustworthy. In the present healthcare industry, blockchain technology plays an essential role in healthcare systems. It canlead to computerized processes for collecting and validating data, accurate information collected from multiple sources, anddata that are fixed, transparent to misuse, and secure, with a reduced risk of digital crimes. In addition, the study provides a detailed analysis of the potential applications for including the use of blockchain technology in transforming public health surveillance.

Same-Sex Relationships and Criminal Behavior: A Total Population Study in The Netherlands

Sexual minority groups experience elevated risk across a range of adverse outcomes. Previous studies from the USA showed that these risks include contact with the criminal justice system for sexual minority females but not for males. This study examined whether this relationship between sexual minority status and criminal behavior was also found in a more secular country like the Netherlands with more progressive attitudes toward sexual minorities. Furthermore, the study aimed to examine whether this relationship applied to various types of crime and could be explained by unmeasured familial factors. Longitudinal data from the Dutch national population, including 75,362 individuals in a same-sex relationship and 3,464,906 individuals in opposite-sex relationships, were used to compare the risk of crime among males and females in same-sex and opposite-sex unions. Discordant sibling models were included to increase control over possible sources of confounding from shared familial factors. Analyses were repeated for six types of crime, including property offenses, violence, vandalism, and public order offenses, traffic offenses, drugs offenses, and other offenses. The results showed that the direction of the associations between same-sex relationships and offending differed for men and women. In general, men in same-sex relationships were less likely to be a suspect of crime compared to those in opposite-sex relationships [odds ratio (OR) = 0.685; p < .001]. Women in same-sex relationships exhibited higher risk than those in opposite-sex unions (OR = 1.560; p < .001). Similar patterns emerged for most crime types and the discordant sibling models yielded conclusions that were substantively similar to those among the total population.