Crime Pattern Theory Research Articles

Fraud events in the coolest of neighbourhoods: A case study from Gothenburg, Sweden

AbstractIn the current study credit card frauds are analysed. Concepts are taken from crime pattern theory and place-based criminology. The empirical material originates from the urban nightlife of Gothenburg, Sweden, and combines quantitative and qualitative data from different sources. Instead of focusing on the individual’s specific motives for committing crimes, the study has its interest in how place can play a part in fraud events and be a necessary condition in the crime modus operandi. In the conducted analysis, we can clearly see that place matters in the crime series studied, and that the place was not randomly chosen by the offenders.

Learning the rational choice perspective: A reinforcement learning approach to simulating offender behaviours in criminological agent-based models

Over the past 15 years, environmental criminologists have explored the application of agent-based models (ABMs) of crime events and various theoretical frameworks applied to understand them. Models have supported criminological theorising and, in some cases, been applied to make predictions about the impact of interventions devised to reduce crime. However, decision-making frameworks utilised in criminological ABMs have typically been implemented through traditional techniques such as condition-action rules. While these models have provided significant insights, they neglect a crucial component of theoretical accounts of offending, the notion that offenders are learning agents whose behavioural dynamics change over time and space. In response, this article presents an ABM of residential burglary in which offender agents utilise reinforcement learning (RL) to learn behaviours. This solution enables offender agents to learn from individual-level perceptions of the environment and, given these perceptions, develop behavioural responses that benefit themselves. The model includes conceptualisations of the Routine Activity Theory (RAT), Crime Pattern Theory (CPT) and a utility function, Target Attractiveness, which acts as a behavioural mould to nudge offender agents to learn behaviours in keeping with the Rational Choice Perspective (RCP). Trained behaviours are then tested by introducing crime prevention interventions into the model and examining the reactions of offender agents. In keeping with empirical studies of offending, experimental results demonstrate that offender agents utilising RL learn to offend at targets where rewards outweigh risks and effort, offend close to home, frequently victimise high-rewarding targets, and conversely learn to avoid offending in areas associated with high levels of risk and effort.

Familiar Locations and Similar Activities: Examining the Contributions of Reliable and Relevant Knowledge in Offenders’ Crime Location Choices

This paper examines the recently theorized roles of the reliability and relevance of offenders’ knowledge of locations in their crime location choices. Using discrete choice models, we analyzed offenders’ pre-offense activity locations from police data (home addresses, family members’ home addresses, work, school, prior offenses, victimizations, non-crime incidents, and other police contacts) and 17,054 residential burglaries, 10,353 non-residential burglaries, 1,977 commercial robberies, 4,315 personal robberies, and 4,421 extra-familial sex offenses, in New Zealand. Offenders were most likely to offend where their prior activity locations indicated they had highly reliable and highly relevant knowledge—where they were both highly familiar with the area and had conducted similar activities—and less likely where offenders had less familiarity or less similar activities. The results support a recent extension of crime pattern theory and highlight the importance of including both reliability and relevance factors when modeling or predicting offenders’ crime location choices.

Nature and Types of Motorcycle-Related Crimes in Nakuru East Sub-County, Nakuru County, Kenya

Motorcycle is one of the most convenient modes of transport in Kenya. However, the motorcycle transport industry is faced with social, economic, and cultural challenges that have significantly increased crime levels in urban areas. The study sought to examine the nature and types of motorcycle-related crimes in Nakuru East Sub-county, Nakuru County, Kenya. The study was based on Routine Activities Theory and Crime Pattern Theory. The survey research design was used in the study. Primary data was collected using interview schedules and key informant interviews. Stratified sampling was used to select 310 motorcycle riders from four strata, which include Bondeni, Flamingo, Mwariki B, and Kivumbini. Then, simple random sampling was used to select respondents from these strata. The data collected were tallied and analyzed to produce frequency distribution, percentages, and mean. The study found the use of violence and weapon as a nature of motorcycle-related crime. The study established Robbery with violence, robbery, assault and general theft as a major type of motorcycle-related crime. The study recommends increased police patrols and the enactment of stringent motorcycle transport laws to help address motorcycle-related crimes.

“We Don’t Steal, Nor Vandalized, We Only Value Waste”: Scavengers Phenomenon in Nigeria

The paper sought to juxtapose ‘We don’t steal nor vandalise; we only value waste’: the Scavengers phenomenon in Nigeria. Instances abound where scavengers have been caught red-handed engaging in property theft and vandalism. The work adopted ‘Crime Pattern Theory’ and the Broken Window Theory. The research design is explorative in nature. It employs both a quantitative and qualitative approach. The target populations for the study were residents in the Uviwe, Ughelli North, and Okpe local government areas, Delta State, towns where scavenging activities and large dump sites exist, and the sample size is 51. A questionnaire was used for the data collection developed by the researchers. An in-depth interview was used to elicit information. The interview questions were structured with an open and close approach. Simple percentage and item mean analyses were used to analyse the research questionnaires. Any item above the mean benchmark of 2.5 was considered accepted, but anything below was rejected. Content analysis was employed for the in-depth interview. Findings from the study revealed that some scavengers have been caught red-handed and engaged in theft. It was recommended that stakeholders and their foot soldiers be issued licences to operate. And when found culpable, the licence should be withdrawn, which will serve as a deterrent to themselves and others within the profession and also be prosecuted in accordance with the stipulated laws.

행정동별 마약류 범죄 수준 결정 요인에 대한 공간회귀분석

The severity of drug-related crimes in Korean society is increasing, yet there is a relative lack of research on the local distribution of drug crimes and the factors influencing their distribution in the society. In contrast to the United States, where studies indicate a concentration of drug crimes in certain crime-prone locations, domestic criminological research on the geographical distribution of drug crimes is insufficient. This study, grounded in the crime pattern theory, set alcohol-selling entertainment establishments as potential locations for drug crimes and investigated whether the number of such establishments has a significant impact on the occurrence of drug crimes using crime occurrence data at the administrative dong level in Seoul.
 Drawing on previous research on the geographical distribution of crime, this study incorporated variables such as the presence of police substations, CCTV ratios, the proportion of foreigners, the foreign floating population, the local floating population, population density, and migration ratios into a spatial regression analysis model.
 The analysis revealed that the number of alcohol-selling entertainment establishments had a significant positive impact on the occurrence of drug crimes, supporting the hypothesis of crime pattern theory in the geographical distribution of drug crimes. Additionally, areas with a higher local floating population showed significantly higher crime grades. It was observed that administrative dongs with police substations tended to have significantly lower grades for drug crime occurrence, suggesting the presence of police facilities as a deterrent factor.
 Based on the research findings, policy recommendations were provided, and the limitations of the study were discussed.

Suçun Mekânsal Örüntüleri ve Fiziksel Çevreyle İlişkisi: Şikago Örneği

Although the environmental criminology, which relates crime to environmental factors and argues that the environment is not a passive determinant of the onset, continuation or termination of crime, has been on the agenda of urban studies, the relationships between elements of the physical environment and crime have not yet been sufficiently studied through exploratory spatial statistics. In the light of crime theories such as Broken Windows Theory, Crime Pattern Theory and Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design approach, this study aims to define and understand crime patterns by producing crime maps, visualizing spatial distributions, and testing the relationship between recurrent crimes in space and physical environmental elements.
 With the field study carried out in Chicago, the spatial patterns and relationships between crime types and physical environment elements were analyzed using exploratory spatial statistical methods. All secondary data used in this research are open data and all analyses were carried out using Geographical Information Systems. Exploratory spatial data analyses using GIS are Average Nearest Neighbor, Optimized Hotspot Analysis, Spatial Autocorrelation (Global Moran's I) and Geographically Weighted Regression.
 The analyses conducted in this study provided supporting evidence for theories of crime. The findings revealed that crimes tend to occur in close proximity to one another and cluster in specific neighborhoods and regions. This spatial concentration of crime supports the notion that criminals choose their locations intentionally or randomly. Furthermore, the study established a direct relationship between physical environmental elements and crime. Various physical factors such as inadequate street lighting, vacant and abandoned buildings, and sanitation code complaints were found to significantly contribute to the occurrence of crimes. These findings confirm the hypothesis that the deterioration of the physical environment can influence and contribute to increased criminal activity. Overall, the results of this study align with established theories of crime and provide empirical evidence for the significance of the physical environment in shaping criminal behavior.

Hot Spots of Commercial Sex Activities in New York City Neighborhoods: Lessons Learned

Understanding the spatial distribution of commercial sex activities (CSA) in urban environments is important in addressing the harms against sex workers and identifying sex trafficking operations. Guided by crime pattern theory, using Census data and New York Police Department (NYPD) prostitution-related arrests data ( N = 29,075) from 2010 to 2019, this study examines the “hot spots” of CSA in New York City. Local Spatial Autocorrelation Analysis (LISA) identified distinctive spatial clusters of CSA, whereas logistic regression explained their significant congregation in immigrant and racial-ethnic enclaves. The heterogeneity of clusters by boroughs portrays the convergence of activity space of sex workers, patrons, and sex business opportunities reflecting the high-demand locations of CSA and human trafficking in NYC.

Relationships Between Offenders’ Crime Locations and Different Prior Activity Locations as Recorded in Police Data

Understanding the relationships between individual offenders’ crime locations and their prior activity locations is important to enable individual level predictions to support crime prevention and investigation strategies. This study examined a wider range of crimes and activity locations than included in previous studies, to determine whether offenders are more likely to commit crime near some types of activity locations than others. Using discrete spatial choice models, we identified relationships between proximity to pre-crime activity locations recorded in a police database (e.g., offenders’ homes, family members’ homes, schools, prior crimes, and other police interactions) and the locations of 17,054 residential burglaries, 10,353 non-residential burglaries, 1,977 commercial robberies, 4,315 personal robberies, and 4,421 extra-familial sex offences in New Zealand. Offenders were generally more likely to commit crime closer to their activity locations than farther away, and closer to those visited more frequently (e.g., home versus family homes) or more likely to impart relevant knowledge about crime opportunities (e.g., prior crimes versus prior victim or witness locations). The observed patterns for different activity locations and crime types broadly support a recently proposed extension to crime pattern theory and illustrate the benefits of differentiating activity location and crime types when examining criminal spatial behaviour. The results have implications for offender risk assessment and management, and geographic profiling in police investigations.

INFLUENCE OF SECURITY MANAGEMENT MECHANISM IN ADDRESSING EMERGING BODA-BODA SECURITY THREATS IN CHANGAMWE SUB-COUNTY, MOMBASA COUNTY, KENYA

This paper uses data collected for an MA Thesis on the influence of security management mechanism in addressing emerging Boda-Boda security threats in Changamwe Sub-County in Mombasa County, Kenya. The study has been necessitated by the conception that management of Boda-Boda security threats will significantly lower Annual crime patterns like terror attacks, kidnappings, robberies, target violent crimes among others. According to this study, the sector operated without proper regulation and or control. The study was guided by three specific objectives; to establish the types of emerging Boda-Boda security threats prevalent in Changamwe Sub-County, to examine perceptions of security personnel on emerging Boda-Boda security threats, and to establish security management mechanism adopted by security personnel in addressing Boda-Boda Security threats in Changamwe Sub-County in Mombasa County. This study was focused by crime pattern and Routine Activity Theory. The study comprised of 144 respondents. Stratified random sampling method and purposive sampling techniques were used to select respondents and descriptive statistics used in data analysis. According to the study, the main types of Boda-Boda related crimes prevalent in Changamwe Sub-County were robberies, thefts, kidnappings, murders and other forms of gun violence. One of the major perceptions of emerging security threat is that of motor bike related gang that has increased vulnerability of many businesses and targets due to their disguised surveillance on unsuspecting victims and targets. According to the study Boda-Boda related crimes are largely under regulated. As one of the major policy concerns, concerted efforts by the Government and the Private sector to come up with preventive social programmes such as economic empowerment and alcohol and drug control programmes that will potentially avert the identified pushing factors responsible for rampant Boda-Boda sector related crimes; Poverty and alcohol consumption and drug use. Social programmes may also come up with mechanisms of social justice to supplement government enforcement mechanisms. Finally, National Police Service should increase intelligence and surveillance of the sub-sector to identify crime patterns, trends and hot spots in order to cut this problem at the nib.

Criminal nomadism: A neglected dimension of spatial mobility in sex offending

PurposeThis study investigates criminal nomadism—an individual's propensity to engage in continuous or intermittent interurban travel as a way to cope with the consequences of their criminal lifestyle and/or as a strategy to adapt to the reality of being a “career criminal.” MethodsThe criminal-career itinerary across Canada of 448 men convicted of sex offenses was reconstructed through individual interviews and analysis of detailed criminal records. Five distinct components of criminal nomadism (i.e., trips, nodes, paths, range, and mesolevel activity space), inspired by crime pattern theory, are suggested and analyzed. ResultsResults show that criminal nomadism is the reality of young and educated Whites who have a prolific criminal career interspersed with long incarceration sentences. Nomadic offenders did not wander freely and randomly, but rather seemed to be looking for opportunities and privacy. Sex-offending variables did not make a significant contribution to predictions, suggesting that criminal nomadism is more a general offending phenomenon than something specific to sex offending. ConclusionsThis study provides supporting evidence that an extensive criminal career is generally associated with a geographically scattered and nomadic lifestyle. Implications for public policies and future studies are discussed.

Interpretable machine learning models for crime prediction

The relationship between crime patterns and associated variables has drawn a lot of attention. These variables play a critical role in crime prediction. While traditional regression models are capable of revealing the contribution of the variables, they are not optimal for crime prediction. In contrast, machine learning models are more effective for crime prediction, but most of them cannot estimate the contribution of each individual variable. This study aims to overcome this limitation by taking advantage of the interpretability of advanced machine learning models. Based on the routine activity theory and crime pattern theory, this study selects 17 variables for the crime prediction. The XGBoost algorithm is adopted to train the prediction model. A post-hoc interpretable method, Shapley additive explanation (SHAP), is used to discern the contribution of individual variables. A variable with a higher SHAP value has a higher contribution to the crime prediction model. In addition to the global model for the entire area, a local model is calibrated at each study unit, revealing the spatial variation of the variables' unique contributions. Among all 17 variables used in this model, the proportion of the non-local population and the ambient population aged 25–44 contribute more than other variables in predicting crime. The more the ambient population aged 25–44 in the area, the more the public thefts. Additionally, local SHAP values are mapped to demonstrate each variable's contribution to the crime prediction model across the study area. The results of the local models can help the police tackle the most important factors at each location, while the global model identifies the important factors for the entire region.

Risk of Outdoor Rape and Proximity to Bus Stops, Bars, and Residences.

Several researchers have linked the configuration of public places to the risk of sexual attack against women, including rape. Based on the routine activity approach and crime pattern theory, we expect to find the greatest risk of outdoor urban rape near public places that are "target rich," "offender rich," and "guardian poor." We apply the theory to 193 outdoor rape locations in Campinas, Brazil, 2010-2013. We measure distances to the nearest bus stops, bars, and residences, then compare each of these to the distance from random points in the same city. Consistent with theory, outdoor rape victimizations occur disproportionately near bus stops and bars, but at least 250 meters away from the location of the nearest residence of any type. This baseline model suggests that urban planners could make women more secure from outdoor sexual attack by improving the design and location of public places, reducing the concealment of such places, and enhancing guardianship.

INFLUENCE OF THE PERFORMANCE OF NATIONAL POLICE SERVICE IN PREVENTION OF ORGANIZED CRIMES IN MOMBASA COUNTY, KENYA

This paper uses data collected for an MA Thesis on influence of the Performance of National Police Service in Prevention of organized Crimes in Mombasa County, Kenya. The study was necessitated by continued rise of criminal gangs despite police service efforts to contain the problem. The study was guided by three specific objectives, but for this paper first and second objectives will be discussed. First, the examined the influence of resource capacity on the performance of national police service in prevention of organized crimes in Mombasa County. Secondly, the study examined the influence of motivation on the performance of national police service in prevention of organized crimes. Thirdly, the last objective assessed the influence of external environment on the performance of National Police Service in prevention of organized crimes in Mombasa County, Kenya. The survey utilized Expectancy theory and Crime Pattern Theory and adopted a descriptive research design employing a mixed method paradigm.
 The study sample size comprised 306 National Police Service officers (NPS); Directorate of Criminal Investigations (DCI) officers, Kenya Police service (KP), and Administration Police (AP) officers both senior and junior. Qualitative data was analyzed using thematic analysis derived from the study objectives. On the other hand, quantitative data was analyzed through descriptive statistics. According to the findings, 17% of the police officers still undertake operations without intelligence briefing, and that despite the availability of criminal intelligence. Besides, access to criminal intelligence was still a major challenge to 45% of the officers while inter-agency coordination was a rare part of the fight against organized crime to 56% of the officers who were not involved. The findings also revealed that despite the importance of training towards the prevention of organized crime, 33% of police officers did not have access to these trainings. Furthermore, 53% of the officers, cited lack of recognition and motivation that could go a long way in raising performance of the police officers. The study makes two major recommendations; special attention to training and curriculum review that addresses the demands of emerging global security challenges. Secondly, officer’s welfare remains a thorny issue which can potentially stifle any crime prevention initiative. Welfare issues of concern such as merit and fairness in promotions, rewards and other incentives, and better compensation were said to be an integral part of any serious police reform agenda.

Situating Crime Pattern Theory Into The Explanation Of Co-Offending: Considering Area-Level Convergence Spaces

AbstractFeatures of the environment including activity nodes and the level of connectivity in spaces help offenders develop awareness spaces for criminal opportunities. Based on arguments forwarded by Felson, the current study argues these environmental features also facilitate convergence spaces that promote interaction among offenders that increase the likelihood of group crime. Data include street connectivity measures from the Environmental Protection Agency and publicly available arrest information from Baltimore City (2013–16). Findings provide support for the influence of certain activity nodes and pedestrian-oriented street connectivity in explaining group crime. The discussion evaluates how crime pattern theory can be extended to understand the social nature of crime.

Location Choice of Snatching Offenders in Chennai City

ObjectivesWe aim to test the applicability of crime pattern theory in an Indian urbancontext by assessing the effects of offender residence, prior offending locations andpresence of crime generators and crime attractors on where offenders commit offences.MethodsThe data comprise 1573 police-recorded snatching offenses committed by 1152 identified offenders across the 201 wards of Chennai City. We used discrete crime location choice models to establish the choice criteria that snatching offenders use when they decide where to offend. Data on the locations retail businesses, religious and transportation facilities were collected using Google location services.ResultsThe results confirm that snatching offenders prefer to target locations closerto their residence and that they prefer to re-offend at or near their prior offendinglocations. The findings also demonstrate that some but not all crime attractors andgenerators influence the location choice of snatching offenders.ConclusionsBy replicating in an Indian context previously published crime locationchoice findings, our findings support the generality of crime pattern theory. We discusslimitations and make suggestions for future investigations.

Crime Concentration and Temporal Stability in Spatial Patterns of Crime in Niš, Serbia

The research objectives were to examine the concentration of crime and its temporal patterns in Nis and compare the related research results in spatial criminology. Longitudinal property and violent crime data were geocoded and assigned to three types of grid cells. Descriptive statistics were used to examine crime concentration, and spatial stability of crime was tested using a spatial point pattern test. The findings suggest an intense concentration of all crime types within all areal units and years of study. The higher rates of concentration were found in the analysis of less common robbery and violent crime. Findings of spatial pattern analysis suggest moderate to a high degree of similarity in spatial patterns among all crime types. However, sensitivity analysis indicates significant changes in the spatial distribution of both property and violent crime. Therefore, an alternative method is applied. Theoretical implications are discussed, highlighting routine activities and crime pattern theory. The study aims to instigate more spatial analysis of crime and evidence-based criminal policies within the region.

Does the Association Between Flows of People and Crime Differ Across Crime Types in Sweden?

Places with persistently high levels of crime, hot spots, are an important object of study. To some extent, the high levels of crime at such hot spots are likely to be related to flows of people. City center locations with large flows of people are quite often also hot spots, e.g., hot spots for pick pocketing at a central train station, or hot spots for assault in the nightlife district. This can be related to crime pattern theory, or to the routine activity perspective, which both suggest that flows of people can affect crime. The present study attempts to explore and quantify whether there are differences in the association between flows of people and crime for different crime types. The analysis considers locations with high crime counts for six crime types in the city of Malmö, Sweden. For each crime type, hot spots are identified and mapped, and in order to explore whether, or how, these are related to flows of people, the crime levels are then analyzed in relation to the number of people who boarded a local bus (N = 33,134,198) nearby. The paper shows that all six crime types are associated with flows of people, although less so for arson and vandalism. This is hypothesized to be due to the relatively constant target availability for these crimes as opposed to the other crime types studied.

Right place, right time? Making crime pattern theory time-specific

ObjectivesCrime pattern theory and the related empirical research have remained rather a-temporal, as if the timing of routine activities and crime plays no role. Building on previous geography of crime research, we extend crime pattern theory and propose that an offender’s spatial knowledge acquired during daily routine activities is not equally applicable to all times of day.MethodsWe put this extended theory to a first empirical test by applying a discrete spatial choice model to detailed information from the Netherlands on 71 offences committed by 30 offenders collected through a unique online survey instrument. The offenders reported on their most important activity nodes and offence locations over the past year, as well as the specific times they regularly visited these locations.ResultsThe results show that almost 40% of the offences are committed within the neighbourhoods of offenders’ activity nodes, increasing to 85% when including first-, second- and third-order neighbourhoods. Though not statistically significant in our small sample, the results further suggest that offenders are more likely to commit crime in neighbourhoods they have regularly visited at the same time of day than in neighbourhoods they have regularly visited at different times of day.ConclusionOur extension of crime pattern theory is only tentatively supported. We argue for replication research with larger samples before any firm conclusions are warranted.

Who ‘Tweets’ Where and When, and How Does it Help Understand Crime Rates at Places? Measuring the Presence of Tourists and Commuters in Ambient Populations

Test the reliability of geotagged Twitter data for estimating block-level population metrics across place types. Evaluate whether the proportion of Twitter users on a block at a given time who are local residents, inter-metro commuters, or tourists is correlated with incidences of public violence and private conflict for four different time periods: weekday days, weekday nights, weekend days, and weekend nights. DBSCAN* machine learning technique is used to estimate the home clusters of 54,249 Twitter users who sent at least one geotagged tweet in Boston. Public violence and private conflict are measured using geocoded 911 dispatches. ANOVA models are used to evaluate how the presence of our three groups of interests varies across three types of block-level land usage. Hierarchical linear regression models are used to evaluate whether the proportion of commuters and tourists at census tract- and block-levels are predictive of crime events across the four time periods of interest. We find evidence that Twitter data has limited reliability across residential blocks due to data sparseness. For non-residential blocks, we find that commuter and tourist presence at the block-level are positively associated with both public violence and private conflict, but that these effects are not stable across time periods. Commuters and tourists only effect violence during weekday days, and the effects of commuters and tourists on private conflict are only statistically significant during weekday days and weekend days. Consistent with routine activities and crime pattern theories, the influx of outsiders in a given location impacts the likelihood of crime occurring there. While we find that data from Twitter users can be valuable for measuring block-level ambient populations, it appears this is not true for residential blocks. Future research may further consider how the characteristics of Twitter users may inform spatial patterns in crime.