행정동별 마약류 범죄 수준 결정 요인에 대한 공간회귀분석

Abstract

The severity of drug-related crimes in Korean society is increasing, yet there is a relative lack of research on the local distribution of drug crimes and the factors influencing their distribution in the society. In contrast to the United States, where studies indicate a concentration of drug crimes in certain crime-prone locations, domestic criminological research on the geographical distribution of drug crimes is insufficient. This study, grounded in the crime pattern theory, set alcohol-selling entertainment establishments as potential locations for drug crimes and investigated whether the number of such establishments has a significant impact on the occurrence of drug crimes using crime occurrence data at the administrative dong level in Seoul.
 Drawing on previous research on the geographical distribution of crime, this study incorporated variables such as the presence of police substations, CCTV ratios, the proportion of foreigners, the foreign floating population, the local floating population, population density, and migration ratios into a spatial regression analysis model.
 The analysis revealed that the number of alcohol-selling entertainment establishments had a significant positive impact on the occurrence of drug crimes, supporting the hypothesis of crime pattern theory in the geographical distribution of drug crimes. Additionally, areas with a higher local floating population showed significantly higher crime grades. It was observed that administrative dongs with police substations tended to have significantly lower grades for drug crime occurrence, suggesting the presence of police facilities as a deterrent factor.
 Based on the research findings, policy recommendations were provided, and the limitations of the study were discussed.