Crime Index Research Articles

الجريمة المنظمة في آسيا الوسطى وانعكاساتها على المنطقة العربية

Organized crime is one of the most serious security threats that may face any country in the world, due to its global effects that transcend the states’ borders, hence the main research question of this paper is “to what extent is the spread of organized crime in the Central Asian region reflected on the security and stability of the Arab region?”, So the paper clarified the definition of organized crime, with an explanation of the nature of organized crime In more detail in both Central Asia and the Arab region, supported by the findings of the Global Organized Crime Index issued in 2021. The paper concluded that there is a significant impact of the spread of organized crime in the Central Asian region on the Arab region; As drugs and weapons move from the Central Asian countries to the Arab countries through Iran, organized criminal groups also have a role in the crimes of human trafficking and illegal immigration from affected Arab areas by civil wars and terrorism to Europe. In this context, the paper puts forward two main policy alternatives for the Arab decision-makers, namely strengthening the steadfastness of countries, and adopting unconventional methods to reach the best results in confronting organized crime. Finally, the paper laid out a set of recommendations to enhance information exchange between the Arab countries, enhance regional cooperation in the technological field, as well as undertake local initiatives that include all segments of society in the process of confronting organized crime.

Level of Implementation of Safekeeping Practices in the Bureau of Jail Management and Penology

This study aimed to determine the level of implementation of safekeeping practices in the Bureau of Jail Management and Penology in Ipil District Jail and Ipil Women’s Dormitory Jail of Zamboanga Sibugay during calendar year 2018-2019. This study made use of non-experimental quantitative research design utilizing descriptive, frequency count, percentage and mean. It also utilized modified questionnaire in gathering the result. There were 127 inmates and 50 Bureau of Jail Management and Penology personnel utilized as respondents of the study. The main statistical tools used were frequency count, percentage, mean computation, t-test, analysis of variance and Pearson r Product Moment Coefficient of Correlation. The study revealed that there were more male inmates as compared to the females. Majority of the index crimes committed by the inmates were murder while on the non-index crimes, majority were charged against possession of illegal drugs. The security practices were always implemented by the two Jail under study which included the following: Commitment Order and Segregation of Prisoners or Detainees, Reception Procedures, and Disciplinary Boards and Punishable Acts of Inmates, Treatment of Inmates with Special Needs, Custody, Security and Control Emergency Plans, Movement and Transfer of Prisoners and Detainees, Rights, Privileges and Miscellaneous Provisions, and Inmates Welfare and Development Functions. There was no significant difference between the Bureau of Jail Management and Penology and inmate’s ratings on the implementation of commitment order and segregation of inmates or detainees. However, there was a significant difference between the Bureau of Jail Management and Penology and inmates’ rating on the rest of the safekeeping practices. Indeed, there was a significant relationship between the safekeeping practices and the level of Implementation of these practices. The researcher recommends that the Bureau of Jail Management and Penology implementation of safekeeping practices be continued and sustained.

Crime index based on text mining on social media using multi classifier neural-net algorithm

Everyday criminal issues appear on social media, even some crime news is often disturbing to the public but it gives a warning to the public to remain careful and alert to the surrounding environment. However, following large amounts of crime information on social media is not effective, especially for busy people. Therefore, there is a need to efficiently and effectively summarize information in a way that is meaningful and easy to see, attracts people’s attention, and can be used by law enforcement officials. The purpose of this study is to present the index crime based on social media by looking for patterns of crime. This study proposes the projected index crime based on crime trends by using text mining to classify tweet texts and post contents into 10 crime classes. The classification method uses the neural-net multi classifier algorithm which has several classifiers namely logistic regression, naïve bayes, support vector machine (SVM), and decision tree in parallel. In this approach, the classifier that provides the best accuracy will be the winning classifier and will be used in the next learning process. In this experiment, in using the multi classifier neural-net, the logistics regression classifier often provides the best accuracy.

The reconvictions of mentally disordered offenders\u2014how, when, and where?

BackgroundLittle is known about the recidivism of mentally disordered offenders after discharge from forensic psychiatric services. This is problematic because such knowledge could (i) help professionals who encounter this group to better plan interventions to prevent recidivism, (ii) clarify the rates of recidivism post-discharge from forensic psychiatric care and (iii) further develop instruments for specific risk assessment. The aim of this study was to investigate the new crimes of mentally disordered offenders who had been reconvicted after discharge from forensic psychiatric care.MethodsIncluded in this study were all individuals (n = 1142) who had been discharged from forensic psychiatric care in Sweden during 2009–2018, were included in the Swedish National Forensic Psychiatric Register, and had been reconvicted in a criminal court within the follow-up period of 2009–2018 (n = 157, 14% of the population). The follow-up times of the discharged patients within the period varied from 4 to 3644 days, (m = 1697, Md = 1685). Retrospective registry data along with coded data from criminal court judgments (n = 210) were used to create a database. Kaplan–Meier survival analysis and descriptive statistical analysis was performed.Results75% of included individuals were reconvicted for at least one violent crime, but only 9 individuals were reconvicted for a serious violent crime, which can be compared to the 44 individuals with serious violent index crimes. The most common crime was “Other violent”. The most common sentence was probation. The offender’s most common relationship to the victim was having no known relationship, followed by the victim being a person of authority. The most common circumstance of the crime leading to the reconviction was that it occurred without apparent provocation; other common circumstances were related to the exercise of public authority. The most common crime scene was a public place.ConclusionsEven though the reconvictions of this group included many violent crimes, there were very few serious violent crimes. The findings that the victims of the crimes of mentally disordered offenders are most commonly either unknown to the perpetrator or persons of authority, and that the crimes are often perpetrated without apparent provocation or reason, are important information for all professionals who encounter this group and should be taken into consideration to assess risk more accurately.

Crimes and sentences in individuals with intellectual disability in a forensic psychiatric context: a register-based study

AbstractAimsTo study associations between intellectual disability (ID) and sexual and violent offending among individuals subject to pre-trial forensic psychiatric assessment. To investigate sentences following pre-trial forensic psychiatric assessment in offenders with and without ID.MethodsA population-based observational study using data from pre-trial forensic psychiatric assessments in Sweden (1997–2013), the Swedish National Crime Register and several other Swedish national registers. The study population consisted of 7450 offenders (87% men, 13% women) who were subject to forensic psychiatric assessment in 1997–2013, of whom 481 (6.5%) were clinically assessed as having ID.ResultsID offenders were more likely than non-ID offenders to have a sexual crime as an index crime [26.2v. 11.5%, adjusted odds ratio (OR) 2.7, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.02–3.58] as well as previous convictions regarding sexual offending (10.4v. 5.6%, adj OR 2.3, 95% CI 1.70–3.12). These associations were restricted to male offenders; sexual offending was uncommon among women. Comorbid attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder reduced the association between ID and sexual offending (adj OR 2.7v. 3.1,p= 0.017), while comorbid autism spectrum disorder had no significant influence on the association (adj OR 2.7v. 3.0,p= 0.059). Violent crime was equally common among ID and non-ID offenders. Offenders with ID were more likely than non-ID offenders to be sentenced to forensic psychiatric care or community sanctions and measures (such as probation, conditional sentences or fines) than to prison; however, 15% of individuals who received an ID diagnosis during the forensic psychiatric assessment were sentenced to prison. Previous criminal convictions, concurrent antisocial personality disorders and substance use disorders were associated with a higher probability of a prison sentence among offenders with ID.ConclusionsSexual crime is overrepresented among offenders with ID compared to offenders with other mental disorders than ID in forensic psychiatric contexts. ID offenders become subject to forensic psychiatric care and forensic psychiatric services need evidence-based treatment programmes for offenders with ID. In addition, there is a need for early intervention strategies suitable for disability services and special education schools, in order to address the complex needs of individuals with ID and prevent sexual and violent offending.

Modeling of crime rate in Indonesia during the COVID-19 pandemic from a macroeconomic perspective: Using robust regression with S-estimator

Indonesia is the 4th country in Southeast Asia with the highest crime index in 2020. Economic factors are often linked as the main motive for the crime. The purpose of this study is for modeling the crime rate in Indonesia during the Covid-19 pandemic from a macroeconomic perspective. Regression analysis is an analysis that is used to explain and model the relationship between variables. The existence of outliers is often a problem in regression analysis with OLS. To overcome the outlier problem, this research uses robust regression with S-estimation. The results show that was influenced by the unemployment rate, poverty rate, GRDP per capita, population density, and human development index.

Intimate Partner Violence and Subsequent Violent Offending Among Handgun Purchasers.

Perpetrators of intimate partner violence (IPV) often reoffend, and firearm access increases risk of severe injury or fatality. Prior research identifies an association between a history of violent misdemeanor convictions among handgun purchasers and increased risk of subsequent arrest for a violent crime; the risk associated specifically with an IPV criminal history remains largely unexplored. The current study examined a cohort of 76,311 California adults who legally purchased a handgun in 2001 and followed them through 2013. Compared with purchasers who had no criminal history at the time of purchase, those with a history of only IPV (n = 178) charges were at increased risk of subsequent arrest for a violent Crime Index crime (murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault; adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 2.6; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.4-5.1), any violent crime (AHR, 3.2; 95% CI: 2.0-5.1), and an IPV crime (AHR, 5.2; 95% CI: 3.0-9.0). Purchasers with both IPV and non-IPV charges demonstrated the greatest risk of re-arrest relative to those with no criminal history. Despite the strength of the relationship between IPV and subsequent arrest, a small proportion of handgun purchasers with an IPV criminal history were re-arrested for firearm violence crimes, limiting application for risk assessment purposes. Results affirm prior research identifying IPV as a risk factor for future offending.

Re-Opening Dallas: A Short-Term Evaluation of COVID-19 Regulations and Crime

We investigated the relationship between COVID-19 stay-at-home regulations and property and violent crime indexes in Dallas, TX during the first 6 months of 2020. We tested for changes in property and violent crime trends using four key “intervention” dates: the stay-at-home order issued by Judge Clay Jenkins (March 24), the start of Governor Abbott’s phase one of re-opening (May 1), a second phase of more widespread re-openings (May 18), and a third phase of increased capacity limits for businesses (June 3). Our analyses point to two main findings: (1) the time between the initial stay-at-home policy and the phase one re-opening was associated with an increase in the trend of both violent and property crime (although at lower levels than pre-pandemic); and (2) the third phase of re-opening the City of Dallas was associated with higher daily counts of property and violent crime. Our findings suggest that policy makers need to consider policies not only related to police enforcement but also allocation of other social services, particularly when such a sudden policy (e.g., stay-at-home order) is implemented.

Historical, clinical and situational risk factors for post-discharge recidivism in forensic psychiatric patients – A Swedish registry study

ObjectiveTo investigate which factors, known at the time of discharge, correlate with post-discharge recidivism in forensic psychiatric patients in Sweden. Subjects and methodsA database was constructed based on registry data taken from the Swedish National Forensic Psychiatric Register, as well as data on post-discharge convictions sourced from the National Council of Crime Prevention and demographic data from Statistics Sweden. The sample consisted of all individuals discharged from forensic psychiatric services in Sweden during 2009–2018 (n = 1150), and the follow-up period was 2009–2018. Survival analyses were used to investigate predictors of an increased likelihood for recidivism using both bivariate comparisons and multivariate Cox regression analyses. ResultsThe Cox regression analyses showed that out of the demographic background factors, higher age at discharge was significantly associated with a lower likelihood of recidivism within the follow-up period. The two discrete historical factors of having a history of substance abuse and having been sentenced before the index crime, and the clinical factor of presence of personality disorder without the presence of psychosis were associated with an increase in the likelihood of recidivism. The situational factors of having a trustee or limited guardian and main living accommodation being supported living were associated with a decrease in the likelihood of recidivism. The results support previous research regarding historical and pre-treatment factors, but also show that situational factors related to increased support and supervision in everyday life are associated with a decreased likelihood of recidivism. This knowledge may help the administrative courts and forensic psychiatric services to prevent future recidivism.

PANDEMIK COVID-19: KESAN TERHADAP KADAR INDEKS JENAYAH DI MALAYSIA

The Covid-19 pandemic has brought great changes to the world community when all offices and schools are closed, social and religious activities are banned, movement control and even social imprisonment are restricted. This action indirectly has huge implications for the country and its people's political, economic, social, cultural, and so on. The main aspect that is of concern to the people at this critical time is the aspect of health and safety. Malaysia is no exception from implementing various measures, strategies, and actions that are deemed necessary to prevent the spread of this epidemic with the aim of maintaining the safety of the people. This article looks at the implications of movement control especially on the crime index rate in Malaysia during the pandemic in 2020. Although the crime index rate decreased by almost 50% not all types of crime decreased although the government's strategy to implement the Movement Control Order (PKP) is believed to be the main cause of the decline. criminal cases. This study will use data obtained from secondary data through academic materials such as scholarly writing blogs, journals, newspaper clippings, and bulletins of related agencies that discuss crime issues in Malaysia and the world will discuss crime issues.

RELATIONSHIP OF LUNAR PHASES TO CRIMES COMMITTED IN ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE

Human behavior appeared to be influenced by lunar phase. Crimes still committed despite the government efforts to prevent and suppress it. Some authors claimed that the moon of the solar system affect the human body and the planet earth. The term lunacy derived from the idea that the lunar cycles affect human behavior and it is a widely believed phenomenon that a full moon can increase criminal behavior. This study aimed to determine the relationship between lunar phases and crimes committed in the two cities of Dipolog and Dapitan. Documentary analysis and unstructured interviews were conducted to gather information. The data were taken from the reported crimes in the two police stations. Statistical tools used were frequency count and chi-square test of both difference and relationships respectively. The most common index crimes were theft, physical injury and threat. Whereas, non-index crimes were malicious mischief and violations to RA 7610 and RA 9262. Results revealed that most of the index crimes happened during the first quarter and during new moon phase. Non-index crimes on the other hand, happened at any lunar phase. The occurrence of index and non-index crimes are likely to be influenced by the lunar phases. Philippine National Police might set-up additional preventive measures to prevent would be criminals from committing theft, physical injury and threat. Police presence be increased more during first quarter and new moon phases to prevent occurrence of crime as well as implement intensive community policing program to protect the community from untoward crime incidence.

Philippine National Police Initiatives in the Promotion of Peace and Order in Iligan City: Basis for Policy Recommendation

This study aimed to determine the extent of the Philippine National Police Operation initiatives in the promotion of peace and order in Iligan City as a basis for policy recommendation. This study made use of a non-experimental quantitative research design utilizing the descriptive correlational technique, frequency count, percentage, mean and standard deviation, paired t-test, and Pearson-r correlations. The respondents exhibited a high level of response that the Philippine National Police always performed the police operational procedure initiatives in the promotion of peace and order. The finding showed that overall, there was a significant relationship between the frequency of implementation of police operations and the crime rate in terms of Index and non-index crime. Further studies are warranted.

Factors Influencing Crime Commission among College Graduate Prisoners

The goal of the study was to look into the factors that influence crime commission among college graduate inmates in the Dipolog and Dapitan City jails. The outcomes of the investigation were carried out using a quantitative approach. The required data was gathered using a purposive sampling strategy. The data was presented, analyzed, and interpreted using descriptive statistics. Highest number of college graduate incarcerated in Dipolog City Jail are graduate from Bachelor of Science in Criminology while in Dapitan City jail are graduate from Bachelor of Science in Education. Most of the college graduate prisoners in both city jails committed non-index crimes or non-violent crimes like violation of RA 9165, otherwise known as Comprehensive Dangerous Drugs Act of 2002 and less prone of committing index crimes or violent crimes like murder, homicide, rape, robbery and other violent crimes. Enmeshment in financial problems is the primary factors influencing crime commission among college graduate prisoners and followed by distrust in perceived support from family and friends. It is concluded that crimes can be committed by individuals regardless of his/her educational status.

Mining the crime data using naïve Bayes model

<p>A massive number of documents on crime has been handled by police departments worldwide and today's criminals are becoming technologically elegant. One obstacle faced by law enforcement is the complexity of processing voluminous crime data. Approximately 439 crimes have been registered in sanchez mira municipality in the past seven years. Police officers have no clear view as to the pattern crimes in the municipality, peak hours, months of the commission and the location where the crimes are concentrated. The naïve Bayes modelis a classification algorithm using the Rapid miner auto model which is used and analyze the crime data set. This approach helps to recognize crime trends and of which, most of the crimes committed were a violation of special penal laws. The month of May has the highest for index and non-index crimes and Tuesday as for the day of crimes. Hotspots were barangay centro 1 for non-index crimes and barangay centro 2 for index crimes. Most non-index crimes committed were violations of special law and for index crime rape recorded the highest crime and usually occurs at 2 o’clock in the afternoon. The crime outcome takes various decisions to maximize the efficacy of crime solutions.</p>

Impact of a community-policing initiative promoting substance use disorder treatment over criminal charges on arrest recidivism

BackgroundOverdose deaths, addiction, and drug-related crime have increased in the United States over the past decade. Treatment improves outcomes, including reducing crime, but few individuals with addiction receive treatment. Here, we determine whether the Madison Addiction Recovery Initiative (MARI), a community policing program implemented by the City of Madison (Wisconsin) Police Department (MPD) that diverts adults who committed a non-violent, drug use-related crime from criminal prosecution to addiction treatment, reduces the risk of recidivism (i.e., an arrest) in the 6-month period following the index crime. MethodsObservational data were collected by the MPD for 12 months before through 6 months after an index crime from participants in the MARI program (n = 263) who referred to MARI between September 1, 2017 and August 31, 2020 and a Historical Comparison group (n = 52) who committed a comparable crime between September 1, 2015 and August 31, 2016. Average effects were estimated using intention-to-treat (ITT), a per-protocol, and a complier average causal effects (CACE) analyses, adjusted for covariates. ResultsITT analysis did not show that MARI assignment lowered adjusted odds of 6-month recidivism (aOR = 0.59 [0.32, 1.12], p = 0.11). Per-protocol analysis showed that completing MARI lowered the adjusted odds of 6-month recidivism (aOR = 0.23 [0.10, 0.52], p < 0.001). CACE analysis indicated that assignment to MARI among individuals who would complete the MARI program if assigned to the program lowered the adjusted odds of 6-month recidivism (aOR = 0.85 [0.80, 0.90], p < 0.001). ConclusionsDiverting adults who committed a non-violent, drug use-related crime from criminal prosecution to addiction treatment may reduce 6-month recidivism.

Community Policing As a Prevention of Street Crime in Kuala Lumpur

Community policing has been introduced by PDRM since 2012 which brings the police closer to the community or in other words 'public involvement'. In Malaysia, based on community policing, the community needs a police organization. The concept of community police crime prevention has long been specially developed for street crime prevention in Kuala Lumpur. This study was conducted to explore the effectiveness of community policing distance in Kuala Lumpur in the effort to prevent street crime in the occurrence of index crime cases. Findings from this study to further increase the effectiveness of this police distance in addition to appropriate joint ventures carried out between communities at various levels with the police in the fight against street crime.

Crime index trends and patterns in Kelantan

Crimes are a social nuisance and has become major anxiousness to the society where it involves the safety of the people in a country. This paper provides crime index overview in Kelantan from 2017 to 2019 that consists of both violent crimes and property crimes. The violent crimes involve murder, rape, robbery and voluntarily injury cases. Meanwhile, property crimes include house break-in theft, vehicles theft and other theft (pickpocketing, snatch theft and etc.). The purpose of this paper is to study the relationship between age, gender, ethnic and district with the crime index. In addition, the objective is to identify and get better understanding of the most common crime index and also to identify which area has the highest crime index in Kelantan. A total of 5,569 cases were reported within this three-year period and the data were collected from Kelantan Contingent Police Headquarters. The descriptive analysis, spearman’ rho correlation and multiple regression analysis were performed, and the findings were then illustrated via graphs and tables. The major results have shown that Kota Bharu has the highest crime index and age, gender and district has significant relationship with crime index.

CONSTITUTIONAL ORDER IN UKRAINE: THEORETICAL JUSTIFICATION AND MEASUREMENT CRITERIA

This article substantiates the place and role of the constitutional order in the social system in general and the European integration course of Ukraine in particular. A categorical analysis of the definition of «constitutional order» is made and the author's definition is proposed, which, in contrast to the existing ones, is based on the provisions of the theory of synergetics and self-organization of complex systems. In particular, constitutional law and order should be understood as a historically determined, mobile and self-organized meta-institutional system formed on the basis of natural selection of informal norms-rules of a particular society and their further constitution, the elements of which are constitutional norms-principles and mechanisms of coercion, which are developed and implemented by the political power. A system of criteria for assessing the constitutional order has been developed and a system of quantitative and qualitative indicators (indices) capable of characterizing the state and dynamics of its development has been presented. The system of criteria for assessing the constitutional order is formed by such indicators as the legitimacy of legal relations, the legitimacy of institutions, the legitimacy of government and national security. It is proposed to include such authoritative international indices as the Crime Index, the Rule of Law Index, the Corruption Perceptions Index, the Inefficient Government Bureaucracy Index, the Trust in Government Index, the Political Rights Index and the Security Threats Index. The state of the constitutional order in Ukraine in 2020 has been analyzed and numerous problems in this area are identified (corruption, inefficient bureaucracy, lack of trust in the government and the prevalence of challenges and threats to national security). Mechanisms (levers and tools) of influence and development of the system of constitutional order are systematized. The system of mechanisms of influencing the constitutional order is formed by normative (amendments to the Constitution), functional (system of responsible institutions and organizations with the relevant functions of protection of the Constitution and ensuring the implementation of constitutional norms-principles) and instrumental (system of measures and methods, including persuasion and coercion, recommendations and encouragement, information and contractual regulation) levers and tools.

Improving the clearance of serious crime: the case of aggravated assault

PurposeThis paper addresses the clearance of aggravated assaults (AAs). Specifically, the authors consider variations in these clearances over time for large agencies and test which crime, investigation and agency factors are associated with the likelihood of clearance by arrest or exceptional means. In doing this work, they seek to extend the understanding of how police can improve their investigations and ability to solve serious offenses.Design/methodology/approachUsing case, investigative and organizational data collected from seven large police departments selected on the basis of their trajectory of index crime clearances, and measures of case characteristics, investigative effort and organizational best practices, this paper uses descriptive and inferential statistics to analyze AA investigations and case clearance.FindingsKey findings include the following: trajectories of AA clearance vary across large agencies and covary with a measure of organizational best practices, and the relationship between investigative effort and case clearance can depend on organizational practices. The authors find that measures of investigative effort are either not related to case clearance or there is a negative association.Research limitations/implicationsNow that police researchers have a better understanding of AAs and their investigations, they need to test how this knowledge can be used to improve the quality of police investigations. Tests, preferably multi-agency randomized control trials, of new investigative strategies and organizational practices are needed.Originality/valueThis research is original in that it uses a multi-agency sample and crime, investigation and organizational measures to understand AA clearance.

Hate Crime in the News: The Media’s Role in Agenda Setting

Examining the extant literature on hate crimes shows that there has been an evolutionary process of Hate Crime legislation (HC). Similar to other social movements such as civil rights, the hate crime movement also had various waves which eventually lead to the passage of legislation. By and large, however, HC research has focused on victims and offenders of hate crimes as well as motivations of bias. Moreover, less research has been done on the media’s portrayal and coverage of HC. Since the media is a noted influencer in social issues (Culotta, 2002; Quisenberry, 2001), we sought to answer how the news media are reporting incidences of hate crimes – particularly LGBTQ+- and compare them with official crime statistics reported by law enforcement agencies. In order to answer these questions, our research utilized a qualitative content analysis using QSR NVivo 12.0 to identify potential themes and trends which may be overlooked in simple quantitative methods. Our dataset comes from the Hate Crime Index ("ProPublica," 2018), for the month of June 2018. Official FBI data is also utilized for comparison, spanning from 2012 to 2016. Our results suggest that the media reports HC within an overall internal Agenda Setting Orientation. During analysis, two main themes were identified that show the (i) media report both the failures and challenges of law enforcement in dealing with HC issue and, (ii) that media highlights various best practices some agencies engage in. Limitations and future research directions are discussed.