Crime Density Research Articles

Hot corridors, deterrence, and guardianship: An assessment of the Omaha metro safety initiative

The purpose of this research is to describe the Omaha Metro Safety Initiative (OMSI) and assess its deterrent effects. The OMSI, a multi-agency task force, has been carrying out “hot spot” policing practices focused on traffic corridors in high crime areas. The purpose of OMSI operations is to deter crime through a highly visible “guardianship” presence that emphasizes contacts with citizens. Findings showed that a corridor approach was consistent with a “hot spot” policing strategy, in that operations occurred in hi-density crime areas. Nine crime categories were examined to assess the efficacy of 41 operations carried out in 2008. Generally, OMSI revealed a short term deterrent on crime, with the actual deterrent effect associated with the kind of crime assessed. Business crimes tended to show the most consistent operational deterrent effects. Effects also were more consistent in precincts with greater crime density. The paper concludes with recommendations concerning data gathering and operational effectiveness across a multi-agency task force.

Crime Mapping and Spatial Analysis in National Forests

Abstract We examined the spatial distribution of crime incidents on USDA Forest Service lands using a geographic information system and several spatial analysis techniques. Our primary objective was to examine whether patterns existed in the spatial distribution of crime and to explore the relationship of patterns to other geographic features using the Forest Service and other databases. We analyzed a database containing over 45,000 spatially referenced crimes such as felonies, infractions, and misdemeanors. Other spatial data layers included transportation networks, administrative boundaries, hydrology, elevation, and digital orthophotographs. Results at a regional scale showed crime densities concentrated in forests adjacent to population centers and transportation corridors. Nearest neighbor, quartic kernel density estimation, and quadrat analyses identified crime patterning and hot spots. Our results suggest that managers can use these spatial techniques as decision support tools to better understand the relationship between natural resources and crime.

Hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for alcohol availability, drug "hot spots" and violent crime

BackgroundEcologic studies have shown a relationship between alcohol outlet densities, illicit drug use and violence. The present study examined this relationship in the City of Houston, Texas, using a sample of 439 census tracts. Neighborhood sociostructural covariates, alcohol outlet density, drug crime density and violent crime data were collected for the year 2000, and analyzed using hierarchical Bayesian models. Model selection was accomplished by applying the Deviance Information Criterion.ResultsThe counts of violent crime in each census tract were modelled as having a conditional Poisson distribution. Four neighbourhood explanatory variables were identified using principal component analysis. The best fitted model was selected as the one considering both unstructured and spatial dependence random effects. The results showed that drug-law violation explained a greater amount of variance in violent crime rates than alcohol outlet densities. The relative risk for drug-law violation was 2.49 and that for alcohol outlet density was 1.16. Of the neighbourhood sociostructural covariates, males of age 15 to 24 showed an effect on violence, with a 16% decrease in relative risk for each increase the size of its standard deviation. Both unstructured heterogeneity random effect and spatial dependence need to be included in the model.ConclusionThe analysis presented suggests that activity around illicit drug markets is more strongly associated with violent crime than is alcohol outlet density. Unique among the ecological studies in this field, the present study not only shows the direction and magnitude of impact of neighbourhood sociostructural covariates as well as alcohol and illicit drug activities in a neighbourhood, it also reveals the importance of applying hierarchical Bayesian models in this research field as both spatial dependence and heterogeneity random effects need to be considered simultaneously.

Extreme spatial variations in crime density in Baltimore County, MD

A salient characteristic of the geography of crime in the US is the presence of extremely sharp geographic variations. These variations may be significant indicators of local environmental inequalities and may have implications for fear of crime and crime contagion, and may also be indicators of potential or actual neighborhood instability. Such micro-level variations are not generally apparent on small scale maps of urban crime. Previously, micro-level analysis of this gradient phenomenon has been inhibited by the confluence of large volumes of data over large areas, a plethora of possible boundaries that might be used for the purpose of data aggregation, and practical difficulties in the identification of gradients in the context of small units of analysis. The present study attempts to identify steep crime gradients and to characterize the physical and social circumstances under which they occur. Analysis was based on 97,880 geocodable incidents reported in 2000 in Baltimore County, Maryland. Crime densities were calculated for 5324 census blocks that experienced at least one crime incident. A steep gradient for the purpose of this research was the juxtaposition of blocks in the highest and lowest quintiles in terms of crime density. Using residential and commercial land uses as a filter, some 259 blocks satisfied the gradient criterion. Further analysis linked these blocks to their parent block groups for the purpose of identifying their social attributes. In addition, six clusters of blocks were investigated in the field. A typology of adjacencies identified six categories.

Drug ‘hot‐spots’, alcohol availability and violence

Ecological studies have shown a relationship between alcohol outlet densities and violence and between the location of crimes related to illicit drug use (so-called 'hot spots') and violence. To date, no study has compared the effects of alcohol outlets and drug hot spots on rates of violence. The present study examined this relationship in the City of Houston, Texas. An ecological study design was employed, using a sample of 439 census tracts from Houston, Texas. Neighborhood socio-structural, alcohol outlet density, drug crime density and violent crime density data were collected from archival sources and analyzed using multivariate and spatial statistics. Using ordinary least-squares analysis, the neighborhood socio-structural covariates explained about 40% of the variability in violent crime. Adding alcohol outlet density in the target census tracts explained an additional 6%, while the addition of drug crime density explained an additional 32%. In the final model, that controlled for the effects of autocorrelated error, both drug crime density in the target and adjacent census tracts remained significant predictors of violent crime, while only off-sale density in the target census tract remained significant in the model. The findings indicate that drug crime density explained a greater amount of variance in violent crime rates than the alcohol outlet density. The methodological and policy implications of these findings are discussed, along with the shortcomings of the analysis presented.

Violent crime and outdoor physical activity among inner-city youth

Background. Previous studies have shown poor correlation between subjective assessments of neighborhood safety and physical activity. This study was performed to model relationships between adolescents' outdoor physical activity and objectively measured violent crime densities, along with other key environmental variables. Methods. Participants' physical activity was measured using a validated questionnaire. Multiple regression analysis was performed using outdoor physical activity away from school (OPA) as the dependent variable. Environmental factors included the density of violent crime within 1/2 mi of each participant's home, distance to nearest open play space, per capita income, and participants' subjective assessment of neighborhood safety. Results. Multiple regression analysis showed that distance to nearest open play space was inversely and significantly associated with boys' OPA, while density of violent crime within 1/2 mi of home was inversely and significantly associated with girls' OPA. Girls' perceptions that their neighborhood was safe for physical activity were also associated with higher levels of OPA, while boys' assessments of neighborhood safety were not significantly related to OPA. Conclusions. Neighborhood violent crime may be a significant environmental barrier to outdoor physical activity for urban dwelling Mexican-American adolescent girls. Future studies of physical activity and the environment should use objective measures of environmental factors.

Violent crime and outdoor physical activity among inner-city youth

Background . Previous studies have shown poor correlation between subjective assessments of neighborhood safety and physical activity. This study was performed to model relationships between adolescents' outdoor physical activity and objectively measured violent crime densities, along with other key environmental variables. Methods . Participants' physical activity was measured using a validated questionnaire. Multiple regression analysis was performed using outdoor physical activity away from school (OPA) as the dependent variable. Environmental factors included the density of violent crime within 1/2 mi of each participant's home, distance to nearest open play space, per capita income, and participants' subjective assessment of neighborhood safety. Results . Multiple regression analysis showed that distance to nearest open play space was inversely and significantly associated with boys' OPA, while density of violent crime within 1/2 mi of home was inversely and significantly associated with girls' OPA. Girls' perceptions that their neighborhood was safe for physical activity were also associated with higher levels of OPA, while boys' assessments of neighborhood safety were not significantly related to OPA. Conclusions. Neighborhood violent crime may be a significant environmental barrier to outdoor physical activity for urban dwelling Mexican-American adolescent girls. Future studies of physical activity and the environment should use objective measures of environmental factors.

Tourism Eclipsed by Crime

This paper examines the relationships between crime and tourism in Hungary with special reference to spatial and temporal aspects, focusing on the main groups of offences committed against foreign tourists and the problem of crime prevention. The study shows that trends in criminality are closely related to the number of tourists arriving and staying in Hungary and are less associated with general criminal conditions. Most of the victims are Germans; their cars, valuables, and wallets are particularly vulnerable to criminal activity. The density of crime is highest in Budapest, the capital, and in the region surrounding Lake Balaton during the summer season when levels of tourism are at their highest. Tourist information and frequent police controls are considered the most effective measures for crime prevention.

Proximity to Alcohol-Serving Establishments and Crime Probabilities in Savannah, Georgia: A Statistical and GIS Analysis

Social science literature links alcohol consumption and human violence and/or crime. Most of the literature in this field only addresses sociological and demographic issues. Crimes occurrences, however, are also location dependent and can be analyzed using GIS methods. Only a handful of studies have analyzed spatial dimensions of crime incidences and their controlling factors. In this paper, we present an in-depth analysis of crime probabilities and their proximity to alcohol-serving establishments based on the locations of 12,458 reported crimes and 247 alcohol-serving establishments in Savannah, Georgia, for the year 2000. Logistic regression and other GIS methods are employed to determine crime density and crime probability in different distance zones from alcohol-serving establishments. The results of our analysis confirm that density and probability of all types of crimes declines exponentially with increasing distance from alcohol services. Current research cannot control for myriad of confounding variables for criminal behavior. Although our findings are consistent with research on alcohol consumption as a causal agent in violent criminal activity, our method of estimating crime probability in space is unique. The crime probability maps produced using this method can be valuable for police resource allocation and patrolling in many other cities.

Suicide Rates, Handgun Control Laws, and Sociodemographic Variables

The association of state handgun control laws to state suicide rates was investigated while controlling for sex, age, percent black, percent metropolitan population, population density, and rates of population change, divorce, crime, and unemployment. Gun control laws formed two statistically identifiable groups, (1) laws that place restrictions on the sellers of handguns and (2) laws that place restrictions on the buyers of handguns. A multiple regression analysis indicated that suicide rates were significantly lower in states with low divorce rates, low crime rates, and stringent firearm control laws, as those laws affect both the sellers and the buyers of handguns. The variables in this analysis accounted for 69% of the variance of suicide rates.

SUICIDE RATES, HANDGUN CONTROL LAWS, AND SOCIODEMOGRAPHIC VARIABLES

The association of state handgun control laws to state suicide rates was investigated while controlling for sex, age, percent black, percent metropolitan population, population density, and rates of population change, divorce, crime, and unemployment. Gun control laws formed two statistically identifiable groups, (1) laws that place restrictions on the sellers of handguns and (2) laws that place restrictions on the buyers of handguns. A multiple regression analysis indicated that suicide rates were significantly lower in states with low divorce rates, low crime rates, and stringent firearm control laws, as those laws affect both the sellers and the buyers of handguns. The variables in this analysis accounted for 69% of the variance of suicide rates.

The Effects of Prison Crowding upon Infraction Rates

During the 1970s the prison populations grew at an alarming rate and researchers became interested in the effects of crowding on inmate behavior. Paulus, McCain, and Cox (1975; 1978) and D'Atri and Ostfeld (1975)found empirical evidence physiological changes occurring in crowded prison populations. Other researchers have also uncovered deleterious effects due to crowded prison conditions. Unfortunately, the work in crowding has lagged behind other areas in corrections and there are few accepted paradigms.This research attempts to expand the current studies and, in doing so, examine the effects of crowding upon several groups ofcriminal offenders. The research is based upon a sample of 21,500 inmates, plus a subsample of 1,300 teenage prisoners. Ananalysis of variance and covariancefound no crowding effectsfor the prison population as a whole. However, strong crowdingeffects were found among young black violent offenders. For this group, crowding was a stronger predictor of infraction ratesthan any of our control variables (age, time served, home county population density, race, or type of crime). We interpret theseresults as artifacts placing high-risk inmates in the largest, most crowded prisons.

The neighborhood early warning system— design and development

The Neighborhood Early Warning System (NEWS) is one of the first attempts by a local city government to integrate socio-economic information extracted from various operating department files. NEWS is a geographic-based urban information system with two primary goals: (1) to pin-point and predict which areas inside a city are beginning to deteriorate, and (2) to measure the effectiveness of programs designed to remedy urban problems. NEWS will monitor location and density of crime, health, and housing code violations, welfare recipients, analyze the results of the monitored data, determine the sensitive factors determining deterioration.