Credit Instruments Research Articles

Credit Risk Management and Insurance Practices - An Overview

In this article it mentioned about credit risk, explosion of credit risk, credit risk raisers, inclusion of credit risks, Evaluation Factors Credit Risks, Altman’s Z Score of credit scoring, Credit default probability of credit risks, Rating, Functions of Credit Ratings, Benefits of credit instruments, Disadvantages of credit rating, Types of credit rating, Sovereign Vs. Corporate Credit Rating, Credit Risk Management & Techniques and Principles for the Assessment of Banks’ Management of Credit Risk.

Credit Implied Volatility

The pricing of corporate credit can be succinctly understood via the credit-implied volatility (CIV) surface. We invert it each month from the firm-by-maturity panel of CDS spreads via the Merton model, transforming CDS spreads into units of asset volatility. The CIV surface facilitates direct comparison of credit spreads at different (firm leverage) and time to maturity. We use this framework to organize the behavior of corporate credit markets into three stylized facts. First, CIV exhibits a steep moneyness smirk: Low leverage (out-of-the money) CDS trade at a large implied volatility premium relative to highly levered (at-the-money) CDS, holding all other firm characteristics fixed. Second, the dynamics of credit spreads can be described with three clearly interpretable factors driving the entire CIV surface. Third, the cross section of CDS risk premia is fully explained by exposures to CIV surface shocks. Using a structural model for joint asset behavior of all firms, we show that the shape of the CIV surface implies that aggregate asset growth is subject to stochastic volatility and severe, time-varying downside tail risk. Lastly, we explore CIV of other credit instruments including corporate bonds and sovereign CDS.

A Regime Switching Model for the Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads

We consider a rating-based model for the term structure of credit risk spreads wherein the credit-worthiness of the issuer is represented as a finite-state continuous time Markov process. This approach entails a progressive drift in credit quality towards default. A model of the economy is presented featuring stochastic transition probabilities; credit instruments are valued via an ultra parabolic Hamilton-Jacobi system of equations discretized utilizing the method-of-lines finite difference method. Computations for a callable bond are presented demonstrating the efficiency of the method.

The impact of liquidity on senior credit index spreads during the subprime crisis

This paper examines the effects of liquidity during the 2007–09 crisis, focussing on the Senior Tranche of the CDX.NA.IG Index and on Moody's AAA Corporate Bond Index. It aims to understand whether the sharp increase in the credit spreads of these AAA-rated credit indices can be explained by worse credit fundamentals alone or whether it also reflects a lack of depth in the relevant markets, the scarcity of risk-capital, and the liquidity preference exhibited by investors. Using cointegration analysis and error correction models, the paper shows that during the crisis lower market and funding liquidity are important drivers of the increase in the credit spread of the AAA-rated structured product, whilst they are less significant in explaining credit spread changes for a portfolio of unstructured credit instruments. Looking at the experience of the subprime crisis, the study shows that when the conditions under which securitisation can work properly (liquidity, transparency and tradability) suddenly disappear, investors are left highly exposed to systemic risk.

The Cross‐Section of Credit Risk Premia and Equity Returns

ABSTRACTWe explore the link between a firm's stock returns and credit risk using a simple insight from structural models following Merton (): risk premia on equity and credit instruments are related because all claims on assets must earn the same compensation per unit of risk. Consistent with theory, we find that firms' stock returns increase with credit risk premia estimated from CDS spreads. Credit risk premia contain information not captured by physical or risk‐neutral default probabilities alone. This sheds new light on the “distress puzzle”—the lack of a positive relation between equity returns and default probabilities—reported in previous studies.

The making of a fiscal state inSongChina, 960–1279

In light of theSchumpeterian paradigm, this article explores the rise of the tax state in eleventh‐centuryChina and its further transition towards a fiscal state until theMongol conquest in 1279. By the late eleventh century in the Song dynasty, two‐thirds of state revenues came from taxing non‐agricultural sectors, especially from the collection of excise. TheSong state became the first sustainable tax state in global history, as manifested in three major aspects: monetization; indirect taxation; and centralization and professionalization in the tax administration. The boundary of theSong tax state was largely confined to urban settlements. In rural areas, the state gave up the collection of commercial taxes by farming out this right to local elites. In the twelfth century, as traditional tax revenues fell far short of supporting military defence, theSong administration utilized credit instruments. Around 1200, the amount of redeemable promissory notes first exceeded that of annual tax revenues. This shift from tax‐based public finance to credit‐based public finance completed the transition towards a fiscal state. Nonetheless, this development in the fiscal state was still at an early stage and proved to be unstable. Toward the end of theSouthernSong, hyperinflation caused by the over‐issuance of promissory notes seriously threatened the economy.

Coins, Currencies, and Credit Instruments. Media of Exchange in Economic and Social History

How, in historical societies, did people finalise transactions? Over the past few decades many economic and social historians have concerned themselves with this question, following the examples set by Douglass North and Craig Muldrew. Surprisingly, they have almost completely disregarded the most straightforward solution that historical societies had to offer, namely by using coins and currencies. Those scholars assumed, in part, that credit instruments were much more important in day-to-day trade. In this introduction we argue that studies into the unequal socioeconomic distribution of media of exchange - coins, currencies, and credit instruments - reveal mechanisms that are crucial to understanding broader social and economic processes. To this end, we discuss how the five articles in this special issue contribute to the growing literature on this topic. (Less)

What Do Credit Markets Tell Us About the Speed of Leverage Adjustment?

This paper proposes a new methodology to infer investors' expectations about the speed of leverage adjustment implicit in the prices of credit instruments. On average, the credit markets imply a fairly rapid annual speed of adjustment of 26% toward a firm's predicted leverage. The speed varies considerably across partitions formed by the differential implications of the pecking order, market timing, and trade-off theories of capital structure. This finding suggests that investors' expectations are formed in accordance with all three theories. We also show that the addition of firm fixed effects in the predicted leverage model gives noisier estimates of investors' expectations of future leverage, and that a firm's initial leverage is a poor estimate of its future leverage. Data, as supplemental material, are available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2013.1871 . This paper was accepted by Jerome Detemple, finance.

The Evolution of Liquidity

To define liquidity this paper resorts to money functions and identifies confidence and financial innovation as factors of liquidity. Economic agents pile up money for its store of value function and invest (in accordance to their risk profile) to earn some return. Issuers of credit instruments and shares look for money for its medium of exchange function to achieve investments, pay debts and consume. Landing and investment can be viewed as a transformation process of store of value money function into its medium of exchange function. Hence liquidity can be interpreted as the ease of this money function transformation process which gives rise to debt and equity and dependent on agents’ confidence in the retransformation of debt and equity into cash. A great fraction of financial innovation aims to make this retransformation more secure by creating and maintaining confidence in originated private debt and financial institutions itself. At the beginning of its development liquidity primarily means money history, later bank history and nowadays it means the complexity of markets, technological progress, financial and capital market services. This paper endeavours to present this evolutionary process of liquidity and motivate the use of money functions in defining liquidity.

The Financial Crisis of 1929 Reexamined: The Role of Soaring Inequality

The financial crisis of 1929 that triggered the Great Depression has been endlessly studied. Still there is little consensus regarding what caused it. This article claims that wage stagnation and exploding inequality fueled three dynamics that set the stage for a financial crisis. First, consumption was constrained by the smaller share of total income accruing to workers, thereby restricting investment opportunities in the real economy. Flush with greater income and wealth, the elite flooded financial markets with credit, helping keep interest rates low and encouraging the creation of new credit instruments, some of which recycled the rich's surplus assets as debt to those less well off. Second, greater inequality pressured households to find ways to consume more in order to maintain their relative social status, resulting in reduced household saving, greater household debt, and possibly longer work hours. Third, as the rich took larger shares of income and wealth, they gained relatively more command over everything, including ideology. Reducing taxes on the rich, favoring business over labor, and failing to regulate newly evolving credit instruments flowed out of this ideology.

Hedge funds and the housing bubble

This article documents that hedge funds specializing in subprime mortgages did not take advantage of the housing bubble and they did not trade against it. Hedge fund capitalization is an important factor regarding how funds suffered during the crisis. Small funds suffered the most. Mid-cap portfolio relied on macroeconomic indicators (subprime foreclosures) and, as a result, suffered less compared to their peers above. Duration and quality of the credit instruments are significant factors in explaining hedge fund returns. Naturally, our study, in line with the existing literature during turbulent periods, documents that the lack of liquidity was a key driver of performance.

Credit Cycles: Econometric Analysis and Evidence for Russia

One of the principal problem in contemporary macroeconomics is concerned with factors increasing or decreasing economic dynamics. The mainstream approach is based on neoclassical assumptions, but recently new approaches appear mostly based on new Keynesian concepts. In present time the influence of monetary market and credit instruments become more and more significant. Credit resources of banking and financial structures can affect and distort to reallocation of resources for national and even for global economic. In present paper an empiric and econometric analysis for some macroeconometric and monetary indices for Russian Federation is done. An econometrical models describing the influence of credit variables onto real GDP is estimated. It is shown that in short-term periods changes in credit variables do influence significantly onto GDP. It is shown that on short-term periods changes in money aggregate M2 brings influence (through credit variables) onto national output. As well it is shown that changes in short-term interest rate brings significant negative influence onto real output. Impulse response functions for GDP on shocks of credit variables, monetary base and short-term interest rate are evaluated. For the present study of credit cycles and their impact to real business cycles statistical data (quarterly time series) on the following factors for Russian Federation are collected: nominal and real GDP, monetary base M2, short-term interest rate, long-term interest rate (10-year treasuries bill rate), total debt outstanding. All time series are seasonally adjusted and collected for the period 2004 Q1 - 2013 Q2. All interest rates are adjusted for inflation (i.e. we deal with real interest rates). The investigation of long-term relationship for the factors under consideration are based on integration. It is important to note that in the present paper all econometric models are estimated on "pure" statistical data, while in many research papers on business and credit cycles all evaluations and inferences are based on "filtered" time series (mostly filtered by Hodrick-Prescott's method). In present paper "causality" always means "Granger causality". All estimations are made in gretl, an open-source multiplatform econometric software.

Factor Markets in Hellenistic and Parthian Babylonia (331 BCE-224 CE)

AbstractBecause the evidence is meagre, this article takes a qualitative rather than a quantitative approach to the markets of land, labour, and capital in Hellenistic and Parthian Babylonia. The evidence consists of administrative documents from Babylon and Uruk (Babylonian clay tablets in cuneiform script), from Dura Europos on parchment or papyrus (in Greek and Aramaic), and from Avroman in (Greek and Pahlavi). These texts suggest that the land market was restricted by the legal rights of king and temple. There is little information on wage labour. Slave labour existed, but neither its role in the economy nor the importance of the slave trade has been adequately assessed. The use of credit, interest, cheques, and other financial instruments is attested, but its significance is small, not least because of the prevalence of iconic interest rates of 20%, set by tradition rather than by market forces. As far as the evidence goes, the markets for land, labour, and capital were restricted by tradition and by the claims of king and temples on land, while the commodity markets were much more market-oriented.

Rural credit markets in South Africa: A review of theory and empirical evidence

The demand for and supply of financial services in general and credit instruments in particular by rural South Africa still remains a confounding problem. The aim of this paper is to determine the status of rural credit markets in South Africa by reviewing theory and evidence from empirical studies. It is observed that financial markets in South Africa are fragmented between formal and informal markets. Formal financial markets generally serve urban and peri-urban areas with a thin distribution of services to people living in rural areas. Rather, informal financial institutions such as savings clubs (stockvels), co-operatives, moneylenders (mashonisas) and village banks are the more dominant providers of financial services. Commercial banks and other formal financial institutions cite high operating costs such as information gathering, monitoring and enforcement as some of the reasons for limited participation in rural financial markets. Such attitudes have been observed to retard entrepreneurial innovation and growth among small to medium size enterprises and smallholder farmers. Results of this analysis have policy implications in the areas of reduction of unemployment, poverty and sustainable economic growth in South Africa. Policies directed at increasing financial intermediation via formal financial institutions are recommended

Stock Market Returns to Financial Innovations Before and During the Financial Crisis in the United States and Europe

Prior studies have focused on innovations in various contexts but largely excluded financial innovations, despite their notable importance. Not surprisingly, financial innovations account for a substantial portion of world economies and the huge market capitalization of banks. Therefore, the authors focus on studying the type, success, and causes of success of financial innovations. Using an event study and financial expert ratings, this study analyzes the types of and payoffs to 428 financial innovations by 39 major banks in North America and Western Europe between 2001 and 2010. The results indicate that security and credit instruments constitute the most common and insurance innovations the least common financial innovations, which vary substantially by economic cycles and location. The average cumulative abnormal stock market returns to a financial innovation are $146 million. They are twice as high in the United States as in Western Europe. Thus, the market considers financial innovations profitable, not harmful, despite their apparent responsibility for the financial crisis. Surprisingly, the cumulative abnormal stock market returns to financial innovations are higher in recessions than in expansions. The authors find that riskiness and radicalness of the innovation increases abnormal returns, while complexity decreases cumulative abnormal stock market returns. Two interaction effects stand out: Riskiness of financial innovations has higher cumulative abnormal stock market returns in the United States than in Western Europe. Radicalness has lower cumulative abnormal stock market returns in recessions than in expansions. The authors discuss important implications of the findings.

Remittances and Financial Inclusion: Evidence from El Salvador

This paper investigates the impact of remittances on financial inclusion. This is an important issue given recent studies showing that financial inclusion can have significant beneficial effects on households. Using household-level survey data for El Salvador, the authors examine the impact of remittances on households' use of savings and credit instruments from formal financial institutions. They find that although remittances have a positive impact on financial inclusion by promoting the use of deposit accounts, they do not have a significant and robust effect on the demand for and use of credit from formal institutions. If anything, by relaxing credit constraints, remittances might reduce the need for external financing from financial institutions, while at the same time increasing the demand for savings instruments.

Stock Market Returns to Financial Innovations Before and During the Financial Crisis in US and Europe

Prior studies have focused on innovations in various contexts but largely excluded financial innovations, despite their notable importance. Not surprisingly, financial innovations account for a substantial portion of world economies and the huge market capitalization of bank. Therefore, the authors focus on studying the type, success, and causes of success of financial innovations. Using an event study and financial expert ratings, this study analyzes the types of and payoffs to 428 financial innovations by 39 major banks in North America and Western Europe between 2001 and 2010. The results indicate that security and credit instruments constitute the most common financial innovations and insurance innovations are the least common, which vary substantially by economic cycles and location. The average cumulative abnormal stock market returns to a financial innovation are $146 million. They are twice as high in the United States as in Western Europe. Thus, the market considers financial innovations profitable, not harmful, despite their apparent responsibility for the financial crisis. Surprisingly, the cumulative abnormal stock market returns to financial innovations are higher in recessions than in expansions. The authors find that riskiness and radicalness of the innovation increases abnormal stock market returns while complexity decreases cumulative abnormal stock market returns. Two interaction effects stand out: Riskiness of financial innovations has higher cumulative abnormal stock market returns in the United States than in Western Europe. Radicalness has lower cumulative abnormal stock market returns in recessions than in expansions. The authors recommend that banks need to time their launch of radical financial innovations to coincide with periods of expansion rather than recessions.

Analysis of Systematic Risks in Multi-Name Credit and Equity Markets

In this paper, we present an intensity-based common factor model that is used to analyze the valuation of common systematic risks in multi-name credit and equity markets. In particular, we use a hybrid intensity model to price single-name credit instruments such as credit default swaps (CDSs), multi-name credit derivatives such as collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), and equity index options such as calls and puts on the S&P 500. Once we have the expressions for the model prices of these instruments, we then calibrate the model parameters to fit the market data. We study two problems, the “forward” and “backward” problems: in the former, we start from equity index options and then compute the CDO tranche spreads, while in the latter, we fit the parameters to the CDO tranche spreads and then compute the equity index option prices and implied volatilities. We find that, based on our hybrid model, the systematic risks in the two markets were similar from 2004 to 2007, while the credit market incorporated far greater systematic risk than the equity market during the financial crisis from 2008 to 2010.

On the single name CDS price under structural modeling

Regulators, banks and other market participants realized that true assessment of the credit risk is more critical and complex than their ex-ante appraisals after the US Credit Crunch. They have turned their attention to complex credit risk models and credit instruments such as credit derivatives. Credit default swap contracts (CDSs) are the most common credit derivatives used for speculation and hedging purposes in the credit markets. Thus, in this paper we fundamentally study the pricing of a single name CDS via the discounted cash flow method with survival probability functions of two pioneer structural credit risk models, Merton model and Black–Cox model with constant barrier. Hence, this approach is not only a new one, but also provides a practical technique to price CDSs using publicly available data of equity returns.

Credit valuation adjustment tail risk and the impact of wrong way trades

Actively pricing and hedging credit valuation adjustment (CVA) has quickly emerged as a core function in banks. One of the major functions of the CVA desk is to risk manage CVA. It is well known that wrong way risk has a significant impact on both CVA itself, as well as on the CVA sensitivities (ie the Greeks). This means that wrong way risk can significantly impact the CVA desk hedging strategy. While wrong way risk may have a significant impact on CVA and CVA sensitivity, it is natural to expect that the effect on the tail risk of CVA, and hence the required capital, is even greater. This is an important consideration for the CVA desk as tail risks typically remain unhedged in practice and need to bear capital. In addition, to the extent that a CVA desk tries to hedge some tail risk, this is frequently done in the form of out-of-the money options on either the market instruments (interest rates, foreign exchange (FX), etc.) or credit instruments (credit default swap index or tranches). Since these instruments do not capture the wrong way risk dynamic (they do not have both the market and credit component), they typically are not suitable for completely offsetting the wrong way risk in the CVA book. This paper analyses the impact of wrong way risks on both CVA itself as well as on the tail risks of CVA. It demonstrates that the induced tail risk adjustment to account for wrong-way risk can be more significant than the impact on CVA itself. Hence, the CVA capital impact of wrong way risk can be larger than the CVA pricing impact of the wrong way risk.