Credit Default Swap Research Articles

Do ESG disclosures mitigate investors’ reaction on mining disasters? Evidence from Brazil

The purpose of this paper is to examine the investors´ reaction to the largest ecological disasters –Samarco (2015) and Brumadinho (2019)– occurred in Minas Gerais (Brazil). Applying a short-term event study analysis, we test the stock and Credit Default Swap (CDS) market´s on the mining sector. Moreover, a cross-sectional analysis is performed testing the effect of ESG disclosures on the market reaction –in terms of Cumulative Abnormal Returns, CAR– on the competitors of Vale S.A., the company involved in such ecological catastrophes. Our findings show a statistically significant reaction in both events. Investors´ react negatively and immediately in the case of Vale for both events; CARs are statistically significant for the shorter windows. However, investors react differently in the mining sector sample –excluding Vale–. While CARs are negative in Samarco, investors do so positively in the case of Brumadinho. In that sense, investors seemed as if they switch their perceptions from this first event –Samarco–in comparison to the most recent one –Brumadinho– rewarding the increase of ESG disclosures in the meantime and mitigating a negative contagion effect in the mining sector. The impact on the CDS market is also found positive in mining sector.

The asymmetric response of sovereign credit default swaps spreads to risk aversion, investor sentiment and monetary policy shocks

This paper investigates the determinants of sovereign credit default swaps spreads in the case of European countries. More specifically, it purposes to yield insight into how sovereign credit default swaps spreads respond to changes in investor sentiment, risk aversion, and monetary policy shocks during different market states. Using monthly data from May 2009 to December 2021 and running the quantile regression model, we show that risk aversion, investor sentiment and monetary policy affect the sovereign credit risk changes, and their effects vary across countries and markets states. More importantly, Risk aversion and monetary policy display the major asymmetric role in explaining CDS premia. However, limited asymmetric explanatory power is shown for investor sentiment. Furthermore, our findings demonstrate that the recent European debt crisis has significantly shaped the sensitivity of the sovereign credit risk spreads to the studied determinants. The findings of this study are helpful for investors in forecasting sovereign European credit spreads and hedging the countries default risk.

Corporate credit default swap systematic factors

AbstractWe examine a comprehensive set of systematic and firm‐specific determinants of the credit default swap (CDS), using a two‐step approach to explore the factor's effect on CDS spread changes. We show that systematic factors are important and account for the most changes in the CDS spreads (with average of 35%), while firm‐specific factors are limited (with of 5% in panel regression) with only 4 out of 28 firm‐specific factors being significant. It implies that the systematic factors are overlooked in the literature, and they can provide many implications for practitioners in CDS pricing and the firm's credit risk management.

Is climate transition risk priced into corporate credit risk? Evidence from credit default swaps

We study whether climate transition risk is reflected in the credit default swap (CDS) spreads of European firms. Using information on the vulnerability of a firm’s value to the transition to a low-carbon economy, we construct a climate transition risk (CTR) factor, and report how this factor shifts the term structure of the CDS spreads of more but not of less vulnerable firms. Considering the CTR factor, we find that different climate transition policies have asymmetric and significant economic impacts on the credit risk of more vulnerable firms, and negligible effects on less vulnerable firms.

Sovereign debt and credit default swaps

How do credit default swaps (CDS) affect sovereign debt markets? We analyze how liquidity, exposure to default risk, and regulation affect the answer to this question using a sovereign debt model where investors trade bonds and CDS over the counter via directed search. Restricting portfolios can improve bond prices and bond-market activity, but the net effect depends on relative frictions in bond and CDS markets, the exposure of investors, and how the sovereign responds to the policy. Our novel identification strategy exploits confidential microdata to quantify trading frictions and the exposure distribution. The calibrated model generates realistic CDS-bond basis deviations, bid–ask spreads, and CDS volumes and positions. Our baseline specification predicts trading frictions and an inability to short sell bonds significantly improves sovereign debt prices, but policies that restrict CDS trading have small effects.

The Impact of COVID-19 Epidemic on the Hedging Islamic and Conventional Stock Markets with Financial Assets

This study investigates optimal hedging ratios for Islamic and conventional stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic using the DCC (Dynamic Conditional Correlation), ADCC (Asymmetric Dynamic Conditional Correlation), and GO-GARCH (Generalized Orthogonal GARCH) models. The effectiveness of various financial assets as hedges is evaluated, and findings indicate that the DJCOM (Dow Jones Commodity), VISTOXX (Euro STOXX 50 Volatility Index), and VIX (Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index) indices exhibit superior effectiveness across both market types, particularly DJCOM showing exceptional performance during the COVID-19 period. The hedging analysis indicates that the hedge ratios vary and depend upon the hedge instrument included in the portfolio. Furthermore, the empirical results indicate that the global impact of the pandemic diminishes the viability of one of the six assets as a safe haven instrument. In conclusion, these findings provide valuable insights for investors and portfolio managers aiming to utilize Gold, Brent, VISTOXX, VIX, CDS (Credit Default Swap), and DJCOM for portfolio rebalancing to mitigate risks associated with volatile Islamic and conventional stock returns. These conclusions contribute significantly to helping investors adjust their investment strategies more effectively and adapt to changing market conditions.

Domestic and Global Causes for Exchange Rate Volatility: Evidence From Turkey

Understanding which factors influence exchange rate movements is important for understanding economic development, trade patterns, investment decisions, and for designing economic policies. In this study, we allow for monetary, domestic and global financial variables to assess the relevant importance of each of the variables to exchange rate volatility in the case of Turkey. The paper investigates the dynamics of exchange rate volatility of the Turkish lira in a complementary perspective by employing both Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) method and Lyapunov exponents over the period from March 1, 2019 to November 11, 2021. Firstly, decomposing the impact of domestic and global financial variables, the results of the GARCH model indicate that the exchange rate volatility is affected by Volatility index (VIX) and Credit default swaps (CDS). This result suggests that the exchange rate shocks experienced are mainly caused by global factors, therefore policymakers should focus on volatility spillovers caused by global financial markets. Secondly, detected positive maximal Lyapunov exponent shows that complexity in foreign exchange markets has been increased, market expectations lead to multiple-equilibria and diverging volatility eventually will generate recurrent spikes in currency value. These complementary findings have important implications for interventions of Central banks and preventing systemic risks, as well as portfolio and risk management. JEL Classification: C32, G14, G15.

Modeling sovereign credit default swaps volatility at different tenures: An application for Latin American countries

Assessing the dynamics of risk premium measures and their relationship with macroeconomic fundamentals is essential for macroeconomic policymakers and market practitioners. This study analyzes the main determinants of sovereign credit default swaps (SCDS) in Latin America at different tenures, focusing on their volatility. Using a component generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model, it decomposes volatility into permanent and transitory components. It finds that the permanent component of SCDS volatility in all tenures was higher and more persistent during the Global Financial Crisis than during the recent coronavirus shock.

Informationally advantaged lenders and the credit derivative market: Evidence from Loan only Credit Default Swap (LCDX)

This paper explores the informational role of the Loan Only Credit Default Index (LCDX) on the pricing of syndicated loans. Despite an extensive body of research on credit indices and loan pricing, limited studies have comprehensively assessed the complex relationship between the LCDX and individual loan spreads. Contrary to indices like the CDX, which are largely linked to corporate bonds, the LCDX directly pertains to the syndicated secured loan market, offering valuable insights about the overall credit default market and the cost of credit risk insurance. Preliminary results reveal a pronounced positive correlation between the LCDX spread and the syndicated loan spread, particularly noticeable amongst borrowers with lower credit quality. The paper highlights the LCDX's pivotal role in conveying secondary credit market information, with critical implications for credit risk management and financial regulations.

Credit default swaps and corporate carbon emissions in Japan

We examine the relationship between carbon emissions and the market perception of firms’ default risk, measured by corporate credit default swap (CDS) spreads in Japan. While corporate revenue size is the most significant factor of carbon emissions, pressure from investors has a significant decreasing effect on carbon emissions, which is greater for investment-grade companies. We find that carbon emissions have time-varying effects on corporate CDS spreads, which supports the “investor awareness” hypothesis across sectors and credit quality. The sectoral impacts indicate that carbon emissions are priced prominently in the CDS spreads of firms in sectors where the transition to carbon-free energy sources appears to be relatively less complicated and less expensive. Finally, we report the impacts of carbon emissions on the CDS spread curve, where they are priced in both short- and long-term CDS spreads, and high carbon emissions steepen the CDS spread curve.

Risk contagion and diversification among sovereign CDS, stock, foreign exchange and commodity markets: Fresh evidence from G7 and BRICS countries

This paper investigates tail risk contagion and diversification effects among sovereign credit default swap (SCDS), foreign exchange, stock, and commodity markets by constructing a tail event driven network. Network adjacency matrices indicate more significant cross-border risk contagion effects compared to cross-market contagion. Besides, the systemic risk decomposition results demonstrate that SCDS markets play a dominant role in the aggregate risk level, while the foreign exchange markets effectively reduce systemic risk. Moreover, tail event driven network quantile regression analysis shows that the impact of network factors at different risk levels exhibits a coexistence of symmetry and asymmetry, accompanied by market heterogeneity.

Financial contagion among the GSIBs and regulatory interventions

This paper compares three methods for assessing the contagion of risk among ten Globally Significant International Banks, known as GSIBs, listed on the New York Stock Exchange with daily and weekly data sets from 2007 to 2020, based on Machine Learning and Network Analysis. In particular we identify the banks which are the largest net sources or transmitters of risk, and net receptors of risk. We also examine the response of regulatory actions, in the form of fines and BIS Bin Classification for capital adequacy.Under alternative risk measures, of Range Volatility (RV) of share prices, Credit Default Swap (CDS) premia, and Conditional Value at Risk (ΔCoVar), there is a stronger and significant connection between Contagion and the BIS Bin classifications relative to the connections between Contagion and banking fines, either in the amount or frequency of the fines. These results show that BIS bin classifications respond positively to underlying signals of increased contagion in the form of Range Volatility (RV) and ΔCoVar measures but not to CDS risk premia.

Behavioral finance impacts on US stock market volatility: an analysis of market anomalies

Abstract This study investigates the impacts of behavioral finance on stock market volatility. The primary aims are to explain the reasons behind changes in the S&P 500 price within the context of behavioral finance and to analyze investor behavior in response to these changes. To achieve this, the research employs time-series analysis over a 10-year period, focusing on the S&P 500, real interest rates, consumer confidence, market volatility and credit default swaps while considering the effects of behavioral biases. The findings reveal several significant correlations: rising real interest rates negatively affect stocks due to loss aversion and sentiment. Conversely, higher consumer confidence tends to positively influence the stock market, driven by herding behavior and optimism. Additionally, market volatility shows a negative correlation with the S&P 500, influenced by risk aversion, recency bias and herding behavior. Moreover, an increase in credit default swap rates leads to stock market declines, primarily influenced by risk perception, loss aversion and herding behavior.

THE JARROW AND TURNBULL SETTING REVISITED

We consider a financial market with zero-coupon bonds that are exposed to credit and liquidity risk. We revisit the famous Jarrow & Turnbull (1995) setting in order to account for these two intricately intertwined risk types. We utilize the foreign exchange analogy that interprets defaultable zero-coupon bonds as a conversion of nondefaultable foreign counterparts. The relevant exchange rate is only partially observable in the market filtration, which leads us naturally to an application of the concept of platonic financial markets as introduced by Cuchiero et al. (2020). We provide an example of tractable term structure models that are driven by a two-dimensional affine jump diffusion. Furthermore, we derive explicit valuation formulae for marketable products, e.g. for credit default swaps.

Sovereign Credit Default Swap Market Volatility in BRICS Countries Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic

SCDS (Sovereign Credit Default Swaps) are becoming more widely used as a country risk indicator after 2008 and stand out for providing real-time information rather than periodic reporting. The COVID-19 pandemic has led to economic disruptions and a decline in international trade. Understanding how the Pandemic affects SCDS return volatility in emerging economies like BRICS forms the motivation for our research. With this study, we aim to determine the impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on SCDS return volatility in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, known as the BRICS countries. We used the Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) model to analyze the data, which consisted of the daily closing price data for SCDS. The date of the first COVID-19 case in each country has been taken as the beginning of the COVID-19 Pandemic in each country. The results of the estimated GARCH models show that the volatility processes of the SCDS return series differ between periods. EGARCH model results indicate that shocks created by news in these countries during the Pandemic have a small and persistent effect on Brazil and Russia's SCDS return volatility, while they have a large and enduring effect on China and South Africa's SCDS return volatility. The findings will guide policymakers and portfolio managers in determining risk management models.

Credit default swaps and shareholder monitoring

The paper examines how the initiation of credit default swaps (CDSs) influences shareholders' monitoring intensity. Prior studies show that CDSs decrease lenders' monitoring over the referenced firm (Morrison, 2005; Parlour and Winton, 2013). However, there is scant literature on how shareholders react after the initiation of CDSs. Given that the reduced lenders' monitoring could be detrimental to shareholders, we predict that shareholders will directly increase their monitoring intensity. Using a difference-in-differences design, we document that the sensitivity of the voting approval rate on director elections to firm performance increases significantly after the initiation of CDSs. The effect is more evident for firms with higher risk, lower existing shareholders' monitoring intensity, and higher existing lenders' monitoring intensity. Collectively, the results provide direct evidence that shareholders step in after the initiation of CDSs by enhancing their monitoring intensity.

Market Liquidity in a Natural Experiment: Evidence from CDS Standard Coupons

Abstract The credit default swap (CDS) Big Bang introduced 2 standard coupons for CDS trading. We exploit the setting of the 2 standard coupons as a natural experiment to quantify the components of the bid–ask spreads in over-the-counter markets. We find that a significant portion of the difference in the bid–ask spread between the 2 coupons is explained by the difference in funding costs. Furthermore, search intensity also explains the variation in the difference in bid–ask spread. The liquidity typically concentrates on one of the standard coupons and can suddenly switch to the other coupon. Using the sudden switch of the primary coupon, we provide further evidence to support the predictions of search-based liquidity models.

Does information environment affect information spillover between the CDS and stock markets in Korea?

This study analyzes the impact of the information environment (IE) and credit default swap (CDS) transaction costs on information transmission between the stock and CDS markets. Using the daily regression analysis on the Korean firm’s stock and CDS data from 2004 to 2023, the results show that companies with superior IE in the stock market exhibit a larger and more sensitive total information flow from the stock market to the CDS market. Companies with lower transaction costs in the CDS market demonstrate faster information flow. In the case of companies with superior IE, fundamental information is reflected in stock prices with high weight and thus the CDS spreads change reflecting information about stock prices. According to this study’s findings, the primary factor influencing the information flow from the stock market to the CDS market is the information environment of the company in the stock market, rather than transaction costs in the CDS market.

The demand for central clearing: To clear or not to clear, that is the question!

This paper empirically analyses whether post-global financial crisis regulatory reforms have created appropriate incentives to voluntarily centrally clear over-the-counter (OTC) derivative contracts. We use confidential European trade repository data on single-name sovereign credit default swap (CDS) transactions and show that both seller and buyer manage counterparty exposures and capital costs, strategically choosing to clear when the counterparty is riskier. The clearing incentives seem particularly responsive to seller credit risk, which is in line with the notion that counterparty credit risk (CCR) is asymmetric in CDS contracts. The riskiness of the underlying reference entity also impacts the decision to clear as it affects both CCR capital charges for OTC contracts and central counterparty clearing house (CCP) margins for cleared contracts. Lastly, we find evidence that when a transaction helps netting positions with the CCP and hence lower margins, the likelihood of clearing is higher.

Does managerial pay disparity influence BHC default risk?

This study investigates the relationship between managerial pay disparity (i.e., pay inequality of the CEO with other top executives and other employees) and default risk (measured using an innovative market-based credit default swap spread). The research relies on panel data for 1992 to 2018 from 198 U.S. bank holding companies (BHCs). We find that managerial pay disparity is negatively related to BHC default risk, suggesting greater pay disparity does not necessarily contribute to excessive risk-taking and instability in the banking sector. However, additional analysis reveals that managerial pay disparity is associated with higher default risk among BHCs with assets of less than USD 50 billion. We also find that greater managerial pay disparity is detrimental to BHC stability in the presence of weaker board monitoring (in the form of less gender-diverse boards and higher board co-option). Overall, these findings suggest that BHC size and board monitoring mechanisms are important factors in understanding the influence of managerial pay disparity on BHC stability.