Credit Channel Research Articles

Macroprudential policy and the probability of a banking crisis

The ultimate purpose of macroprudential policy is to avoid financial instability, such as banking crises, which have a long-lasting and devastating effect on the economy. Although a growing number of studies have examined the effects of macroprudential policy on credit growth, few empirical studies have analyzed its effect on the probability of a banking crisis. Does macroprudential policy actually affect the probability of a banking crisis? Do other macroeconomic policies matter for the effectiveness of macroprudential policy? To answer these questions, this paper empirically investigates the effect of macroprudential policy on the probability of a banking crisis and its relationship with other macroeconomic policies. Specifically, using data on 65 countries from 2000 to 2016, we employ a probit model to analyze the effect of changes in the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio on crisis probability. Our results show that macroprudential policy is effective in changing the probability of a banking crisis via a credit channel and that its effectiveness depends on other macroeconomic policies. Changes in the LTV ratio are found to be effective in influencing the probability of a banking crisis in countries that have inflation targeting frameworks, floating exchange rate regimes, and/or no capital controls. Our results underscore the importance of policy coordination among different government bodies to design an appropriate macroprudential policy, especially in the current context of the Covid-19 crisis.

De-leveraging or de-risking? How banks cope with loss

We use variation in banks' loan exposure to industries adversely affected by the oil price declines of 2014 to explore how they respond to a net worth shock. Using granular data obtained under the Fed's stress testing programs we show that exposed banks tightened credit on corporate lending and on mortgages that they would ultimately hold on their balance sheet. However, they expanded credit for mortgages to be securitized, particularly those that are government-backed. Thus, banks re-balance their portfolio so as to lower their average risk weight, rather than scaling back the size of their balance sheet, as looking at on-balance-sheet corporate or residential lending alone would suggest. These results show the importance of taking a cross-balance sheet perspective when examining bank behavior. In addition, in terms of the ultimate ‘credit channel’ to firms and households, we show precisely how borrowers substitute to alternative financing when banks they initially borrow from tighten credit. In showing that there was ultimately a minimal impact on borrowers' overall funding, we provide a benchmark for crisis-period studies, which typically find a powerful credit channel effect.

Abnormal inventory and performance in manufacturing companies: evidence from the trade credit channel

This paper examines the value of abnormal inventory and the channels through which firms decrease abnormally high inventory or increase abnormally low inventory for a sample of 976 United Kingdom manufacturing firms over the period from 2006 to 2015. Using GMM regressions, the results show that (i) an optimal inventory policy exists; and (ii) firms that are able to converge at this optimal inventory level by either decreasing abnormally high inventory or increasing abnormally low inventory to improve operational and stock performance. Importantly, the results show that trade receivables and trade payables are the channels through which firms achieve efficient inventory management.

Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism in East Africa: A Comparative Study of Tanzania, Kenya And Uganda

This study makes a comparative analysis of the channels and effectiveness of the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy in three East African countries. The study applies time series data that is analysed using a Recursive Vector Autoregressive technique. The results suggest that exchange rate is the dominant monetary policy transmission channel in Tanzania and Uganda; and the bank credit channel is found to be the most dominant mechanism in Kenya. Further, the results suggest the existence of good potential for targeting inflation or interest rate rather than monetary aggregates, especially for Tanzania and Kenya, since Uganda has already embarked on inflation targeting lite, and is currently faring well.
 JEL Classification: E31, E37

The Effectiveness of Bank Credit Channel in Turkey

Parasal otoritenin yürütmüş olduğu para politikası, reel ekonomiyi; geleneksel faiz kanalı, varlık fiyatları kanalı, döviz kuru kanalı, kredi kanalı ve beklenti kanalı olmak üzere parasal aktarım kanalları aracılığıyla etkilemektedir. Bu çalışmanın esas konusunu oluşturan kredi kanalı, banka kredileri kanalı ve bilanço kanalı olarak iki alt kanala ayrılmaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, 2003Ç1-2018Ç4 döneminde Türkiye’de banka kredi kanalının etkinliğinin VAR modeli kullanılarak araştırılmasıdır. Analizde para politikası göstergesi olarak kısa vadeli faiz oranları kullanılmış ve faiz oranındaki değişikliklerin özel sektörün (finansal olmayan) kredi hacmine olan etkileri araştırılmıştır. Etki-tepki fonksiyonlarının sonuçları Türkiye’de banka kredi kanalı mekanizmasının çalıştığını göstermiştir.

On the importance of household versus firm credit frictions in the Great Recession

Although a credit tightening is commonly recognized as a key determinant of the Great Recession, to date, it is unclear whether a worsening of credit conditions faced by households or by firms was most responsible for the downturn. Some studies have suggested that the household-side credit channel is quantitatively the most important one. Many others contend that the firm-side credit channel played a crucial role. We propose a model in which both channels are present and explicitly formalized. Our analysis indicates that the household-side credit channel is quantitatively more relevant than the firm-side credit channel. We then evaluate the relative benefits of a fixed-sized transfer to households and to firms that improves each group's access to credit. We find that the effects of such a transfer on employment are substantially larger when the transfer targets households rather than firms. Hence, we provide theoretical and quantitative support to the view that the employment decline during the Great Recession would have been less severe if instead of focusing on easing firms' access to credit, the government had expended an equal amount of resources to alleviate households' credit constraints.

Monetary Policy and Intangible Investment

We contrast how monetary policy affects intangible relative to tangible investment. We document that the stock prices of firms with more intangible assets react less to monetary policy shocks, as identified from Fed Funds futures movements around FOMC announcements. Consistent with the stock price results, instrumental variable local projections confirm that the total investment in firms with more intangible assets responds less to monetary policy, and that intangible investment responds less to monetary policy compared to tangible investment. We identify two mechanisms behind these results. First, firms with intangible assets use less collateral, and therefore respond less to the credit channel of monetary policy. Second, intangible assets have higher depreciation rates, so interest rate changes affect their user cost of capital relatively less.

Estimating the Neutral Interest Rate in the Kyrgyz Republic

This paper estimates the neutral interest rate in the Kyrgyz Republic using a range of methodologies. Results indicate that the real neutral rate is about 4 percent based on an average of models and 3.7 percent based on a Quarterly Projection Model. This is higher than in many emerging markets and is likely explained by higher public debt and an elevated risk premium, low creditor rights and contractual enforcement, and low domestic savings. The use of an estimate of the neutral interest rate provides useful guidance to monetary policy and enhances transparency and independence of the central bank. Our estimate provides a quantitative benchmark for the monetary policy stance in the context of a central bank that is building analytical capacity, integrating additional insights in its decision-making process, and working to improve its communication. Strengthening the monetary transmission mechanism will be critical to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy, including by allowing more exchange rate flexibility to support the transition to a full-fledged inflation targeting regime, and reducing excess liquidity to enhance the credit channel, reducing dollarization and high interest rate spreads that adversely affect the transmission of the policy rate to the economy.

The credit consequences of unpaid medical bills

This paper quantifies the costs of leaving medical bills unpaid and what these costs imply for the value of health insurance to beneficiaries. We argue that a large fraction of unpaid medical bills is sent to third-party collections and reported to credit bureaus, with detrimental effects on patients' credit outcomes. Combining a large panel of credit records with data on credit offers, we find that the ACA Medicaid expansion reduced newly-reported medical collections by $5.89 billion and led to better terms of credit. We find that the financial benefits of Medicaid at least double when including this indirect credit channel.

The cross-border credit channel and lending standards surveys

The greater availability of bank Senior Loan Officer (SLO) surveys in the past decade is enhancing our understanding of the international bank lending channel of monetary policy. Using a Global VAR (GVAR), we find evidence that expansionary monetary policies in general resulted in lower credit standards, which in turn reinforced the thrust of monetary policy. However, at the time of announcements about unconventional monetary policies, the expansionary impact was muted likely owing to a signaling effect, i.e., signaling a downgrading of underlying economic and financial prospects. Comparisons with the United States and Eurozone economies draw attention to the special role bank-lending standards play in the monetary policy transmission mechanism.

Trade Credit and the Transmission of Unconventional Monetary Policy

We show that trade credit in production networks is important for the transmission of unconventional monetary policy. We find that firms with bonds eligible for purchase under the European Central Bank's Corporate Sector Purchase Program act as financial intermediaries and extend more trade credit to their customers. The increase in trade credit flows is more pronounced from core countries to periphery countries and towards financially constrained customers. Customers increase investment and employment in response to the additional financing, while suppliers with eligible bonds increase their customer base, potentially favoring upstream industry concentration. Our findings suggest that the trade credit channel of monetary policy produces heterogeneous effects on regions, industries, and firms.

Common Agriculture Police in the EU, direct payments, solvency and income

PurposeCommon Agriculture Police in the EU, direct payments, solvency and incomeDesign/methodology/approachWe employ agriculture data for all twenty-eight EU Member States. The data comes from the public Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) of the EU. In terms of methodology we employ panel regression and panel Vector Autoregression analysis (panel VAR) to take into account possible endogeneity issues.FindingsThe reported panel regressions, impulse response functions (IRFs) and variance decompositions (VDCs) show that agriculture income has been subdued due to negative shocks in direct payments and solvency. Our results do not support the hypothesis that higher direct payments would increase agriculture income. In addition, whilst solvency subdues agriculture income, investment asserts a positive impact on agriculture income.Research limitations/implicationsFurther research on the impact of direct payments of CAP on EU agriculture is warranted at a disaggregate level so as to examine whether there is variability in the underlying interlinkages at regional levelPractical implicationsAs a policy implication, and in light of the ongoing reform of the EU's CAP, we would propose to raise net value added in agriculture using targeted income support to small and medium-sized farms. The European Economic Recovery Plan (EERP) would be also supportive. In addition, further enhancing financial integration across the EU would provide funds for investment in agriculture.Social implicationsAs social implication, one would propose to raise investment in agriculture, that is through the European Economic Recovery Plan (EERP). The EERP is designed as a stimulus package set up to mitigate the consequences of the global financial crisis in the EU. Also, a way to boost agriculture income is through the credit channel of the on-going quantitative easing of the ECB, where unconventional monetary policy is aiming to support the growth prospect of the Euro area.Originality/valueThis study examines the impact of direct payments, which include all subsidies, of the EU's Common Agriculture Policy (CAP) on agriculture income as measured by the net value added. We also control for solvency. Despite the magnitude of CAP on the EU budget, few studies investigate the impact of direct payments on income in the aftermath of the financial crisis. This is surprising given the importance of agriculture for the economic recovery of the EU that remains anaemic more than a decade after the crisis.

The Nexus between Credit Channels and Farm Household Vulnerability to Poverty: Evidence from Rural China

It is well known that finance is at the core of economic activities, and rural finance is an important force for agricultural development, rural economic growth, and farmer income growth, but how rural credit affects vulnerability to poverty of farm households is not yet known. The study on the nexus between the credit channels and vulnerability to poverty can not only realize targeted poverty alleviation but also promote sustainable rural development. This study measures vulnerability to poverty of Chinese farm households by three-stage feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) and tests for the impact of two credit channels on farm household’s vulnerability to poverty based on China Household Finance Survey data. We mainly found that the proportion of structural poverty in western areas is comparatively large, and risky poverty of farm households in eastern areas is relatively serious. The high education cost may be an important factor in farm household poverty; the cost-effectiveness of education is higher than that of earnings. Farm household vulnerability to poverty with folk loans is 0.2% higher than that of farm households without private credit; however, this is not significant. Farm household vulnerability to poverty with bank credit is 0.4% lower than households without bank credit, which is significant. For farm households who have a higher level of vulnerability to poverty, the effect of bank credit on reducing vulnerability to poverty is greater. Moreover, we replaced the vulnerability-to-poverty variable with a more rigid indicator to test the relationship between the credit channels and vulnerability to poverty and got the same results as before.

The trade credit channel and monetary policy transmission: Empirical evidence from U.S. panel data

We investigate the US trade credit channel proposed by Meltzer (1960). We estimate reduced-form trade credit supply and demand models on quarterly firm-level data for most public corporations from 1988 to 2007. We use a novel method of distinguishing firms by access to funds using the indexes of Whited and Wu (2006) and Altman (1968). Tight monetary policy produced greater expansion of receivables than payables, expansion of receivables that varied by funds-access, and some expansion of payables by firms with poor access. Tight policy produced expansion of net trade credit by corporations which flowed to entities like private businesses, a major component of the channel.

AGRICULTURAL CREDITS AND AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY: CROSS-COUNTRY EVIDENCE

We present cross-country evidence suggesting that agricultural credits have a positive impact on agricultural productivity. In particular, we find that doubling agricultural credits generates around 4–5% increase in agricultural productivity. We use two different agricultural production measures: (i) the agricultural component of GDP and (ii) agricultural labor productivity. Employing a combination of panel-data and instrumental-variable methods, we show that agricultural credits operate mostly on the agricultural component of GDP in developing countries and agricultural labor productivity in developed countries. This suggests that the nature of the relationship between agricultural finance and agricultural output changes along the development path. We conjecture that the development of the agricultural finance system generates entry into the agricultural labor market, which pushes up the agricultural component of GDP and keeps down agricultural labor productivity in developing countries; while, in developed countries, it leads to labor-augmenting increase in agricultural production. We argue that replacement of the informal credit channel with formal and advanced agricultural credit markets along the development path is the main force driving the labor market response.

Regional effects of monetary policy in the U.S.: An empirical re-assessment

This paper provides an empirical re-assessment of the regional effects of monetary policy in the U.S. We use the narrative series of Romer and Romer (2004) as a measure of monetary policy shocks and impulse response functions estimated directly from a single equation spatial model. We find that monetary policy tightening leads to a persistent decrease in regional real personal income and employment, with asymmetric effects across regions that are magnified by spatial spillovers. The magnitude of the effects depends on the period under analysis and on the direction of the monetary policy shock. We also provide evidence of the existence of the interest rate and the housing market channels, although there is weak support for the presence of the credit channels at the regional level.

Internet Finance, Monetary Policy Effectiveness and Bank Credit Channel

Internet Finance, Monetary Policy Effectiveness and Bank Credit Channel

Optimal financing mode selection for a capital-constrained retailer under an implicit bankruptcy cost

In the context of the capital-constrained newsvendor problem under an implicit bankruptcy cost, we explore how such a cost affects a capital-constrained retailer’s financing mode selection decision between bank credit financing (BCF) and trade credit financing (TCF). We first study the problem in a single credit channel where the retailer can choose only one of the two financing modes. We find that the retailer prefers TCF to BCF only when the TCF interest rate (TCF-IR) is lower than a threshold, and the “dominant area” of TCF expands with increasing bankruptcy cost. We then study the problem in a dual credit channel where the retailer can choose a portfolio comprising BCF and TCF, and examine two repayment sequences, i.e., repaying BCF first, and vice versa. We propose two approaches to solve the problems. We find that if BCF is repaid first, as the TCF-IR increases from zero, the retailer first chooses only TCF, then a portfolio comprising BCF and TCF, and finally only BCF. On the other hand, if TCF is repaid first, the retailer always chooses the single credit channel (BCF or TCF) if the TCF-IR is not greater than a threshold or the bankruptcy cost is higher than a threshold; otherwise, a portfolio comprising BCF and TCF, or only BCF. Finally, we conduct numerical experiments to verify our main theoretical findings and examine the effects of the retailer’s internal capital endowment on its financing mode selection decision, showing that a wealthier retailer is more likely to prefer BCF to TCF.

Financial shocks, firm credit and the Great Recession

The creation and destruction margins of employment (job flows) can be used to measure the employment effects of disruptions to firm credit. Using a firm dynamics model, we establish that a tightening of credit to firms reduces employment primarily by reducing gross job creation, exhibiting stronger effects at new, young, and middle-sized firms. The firm credit channel accounts for, at most, 18%, of the decline in US employment in the Great Recession. Using MSA-level job flows data, we show that the job flows response to identified credit shocks is consistent with our model’s predictions.

Petty cash from parents: Provision of liquidity to spin-offs by trade credit channel

ABSTRACT This study shows that spin-offs acquire liquidity from their parent firms through the trade credit channel. We find that the accounts receivable of spin-offs with parent customers are lower than those of others, while the accounts payable of spin-offs with parent suppliers are higher than those of others. This supports the view that parent firms provide the liquidity of spin-offs through trade credit. Moreover, we find that spin-offs are more likely to increase accounts payable, regardless of whether the parent firms are major customers or suppliers. This is consistent with the view that the presence of parent firms plays a role in the certification of spin-offs.