Cox Analysis Research Articles

Individualized drug therapy and survival prediction in ICU patients with acute kidney injury: construction and validation of a nomogram

BackgroundAcute kidney injury (AKI) is defined by a sharp decrease in the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). However, the impact of medication history on the survival of AKI patients has received little attention. Hence, it is necessary to investigate the potential of medication history as a predictor of survival outcomes among AKI patients in the intensive care unit (ICU).MethodsCritically ill AKI patients were sourced from the MIMIC-IV database. To ascertain significant, drug-related, independent predictors of survival, univariate Cox analysis and stepwise Cox regression were performed. Based on the identified predictor, a nomogram was developed to estimate the individualized survival probability for AKI patients. Additionally, to address potential confounders among patients with medications referenced in the nomogram, a propensity score matching procedure was applied. Ultimately, a comparative analysis was performed to elucidate the prognostic disparities among these patient subgroups.ResultsThis study enrolled 1,208 patients and developed a nomogram incorporating oxygen flow rate, respiratory frequency, continuous venovenous hemodiafiltration status, age, and medication use (including ibuprofen, epinephrine, cefazolin, warfarin, and vasopressin). The predictive model demonstrated diagnostic accuracy, with AUC values for 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year survival among AKI patients of 0.827, 0.799, and 0.777 in the training dataset, and 0.760, 0.743, and 0.740 in the internal validation dataset, respectively. Kaplan–Meier survival analyses revealed significant differences in survival outcomes among AKI patients based on their exposure to different medications.ConclusionsIn summary, the developed prediction model demonstrated accuracy for AKI patients in the ICU and helped clinical decision-making. However, future studies will require external validation to confirm these findings.

Sex Differences in Computed Tomography Coronary Stenosis Severity Versus Flow Impairment and Impact on Revascularization, Clinical Events and Health Care Costs: A FORECAST Substudy.

The impact of sex-related differences in coronary atheroma and flow impairment severity on clinical events and costs remains unclear. This is a secondary analysis of patients with stable coronary artery disease who underwent both coronary computed tomography angiography and fractional flow reserve derived from computed tomography as part of the FORECAST (Fractional Flow Reserve Derived From Computed Tomography Coronary Angiography in the Assessment and Management of Stable Chest Pain) trial, investigating (1) the relationship between coronary stenosis severity on coronary computed tomography angiography and fractional flow reserve derived from computed tomography FFRCTby sex and (2) the association with revascularization, resource usage, and adverse clinical events. A total of 212 patients (64 female participants [32.1%]) and 1245 vessels were included. There was no significant sex difference in the frequencies of significant coronary artery disease (38.2% of women versus 51.3% of men; P=0.073), but female participants had significantly less coronary flow impairment, according to the presence of at least 1 fractional flow reserve derived from computed tomography≤0.8 (47.0% versus 71.5%; P=0.008). Female subjects underwent fewer revascularization procedures (23.5% versus 42.3%; P=0.014), less coronary artery bypass graft surgery (2.9% versus 13.1%; P=0.025) and were less likely to be on statin treatment (72.0% versus 84.7%; P=0.022) by 9-month follow-up. This resulted in lower overall health care costs for female participants compared with male counterparts (median total cost, £1276 versus £2051; P=0.014). In multivariable Cox analysis the presence of significant coronary artery disease (hazard ratio [HR], 2.91; 95% CI, 1.30-6.51) and having a positive fractional flow reserve derived from computed tomography (HR, 4.11; 95% CI, 1.15-14.69) were independent predictors of major adverse cardiovascular events at 9 months, whereas sex was not statistically significant (p=0.13). There are significant sex differences in the anatomico-functional assessment of coronary artery disease leading to differences in clinical management, costs, and adverse events.

Prognostic impact of tumor size on cancer-specific survival for postoperative WHO grade II oligodendroglioma: a SEER-based study

BackgroundWHO grade II oligodendroglioma (OG/II) is a rare primary brain tumor with various outcomes. Our study aims to investigate prognostic factors for postoperative OG/II patients and then evaluate the instructional value of tumor size.MethodsWe retrospectively studied the cases from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses and Kaplan-Meier survival curves were used to identify and assess prognostic factors. The optimal cut-off value of tumor size was determined by X-tile analysis and verified by multivariate analyses. Subsequently, Subgroup analyses were performed based on tumor size.Result676 OG/II patients were enrolled in our study. Multivariate Cox analyses revealed that age > 60 (HR 3.52), male (HR 1.48), total resection (HR 0.38), and tumor size (HR 2.04) were independent factors in predicting cancer-specific survival (CCS). The optimal cut-off value for tumor size was 60 mm. Patients with tumor size less than 60 mm, age > 60 (HR 3.82), and radiation (HR 1.58) were associated with worse CSS, while total resection (HR 0.35) was associated with better CSS. Lastly, a tumor size-based nomogram was established objectively and accurately.ConclusionOur study identified four crucial prognostic factors related to CSS in postoperative OG/II patients: age, sex, the extent of recession, and tumor size. A tumor size of 60 mm was an optimal cut-off point for dividing patients into low and high-risk groups. Patients in the low-risk group may not benefit from extended resection and radiation. Tumor size can be a valuable factor for making therapeutic schedules.

Prognostic prediction for inflammatory breast cancer patients using random survival forest modeling.

Inflammatory breast cancer (IBC) is an aggressive and rare phenotype of breast cancer, which has a poor prognosis. Thus, it is necessary to establish a novel predictive model of high accuracy for the prognosis of IBC patients. Clinical information of 1,230 IBC patients from 2010 to 2020 was extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. Cox analysis was applied to identify clinicopathological characteristics associated with the overall survival (OS) of IBC patients. Random survival forest (RSF) algorithm was adopted to construct an accurate prognostic prediction model for IBC patients. Kaplan-Meier analysis was performed for survival analyses. Race, N stage, M stage, molecular subtype, history of chemotherapy and surgery, and response to neoadjuvant therapy were identified as independent predictive factors for the OS of IBC patients. The top five significant variables included surgery, response to neoadjuvant therapy, chemotherapy, breast cancer molecular subtypes, and M stage. The C-index of RSF model was 0.7704 and the area under curve (AUC) values for 1, 3, 5 years in training and validation datasets were 0.879-0.955, suggesting the excellent predictive performance of RSF model. IBC patients were divided into high-risk group and low-risk group according the risk score of RSF model, and the OS of patients in the low-risk group was significantly longer than those in the high-risk group. In this study, we constructed a prognosis prediction model for IBC patients through RSF algorithm, which may potentially serve as a useful tool during clinical decision-making.

Predictive Value of Left Atrial Strain for Thrombotic Events in Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy without Atrial Fibrillation.

Purpose To assess the predictive value of left atrial (LA) fast long-axis strain derived from cardiac MRI for thrombotic events (TEs) in individuals with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). Materials and Methods This secondary analysis of an ongoing prospective trial (Chinese Clinical Trial Registry: ChiCTR1900024094) included consecutive participants with HCM without atrial fibrillation (AF) who underwent cardiac MRI from January 2012 to December 2020. The LA fast long-axis strain was obtained by semiautomatically tracking the distance between the atrioventricular junction and the midposterior LA wall. The primary end point was the occurrence of TEs, including ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack, and systemic thromboembolism. The predictive value of LA strain was determined with Cox analysis. Results Overall, 714 participants with HCM (mean age ± SD, 50.1 years ± 14.3; 441 men, 273 women; obstructive HCM, n = 289; apical HCM, n = 144) were included (median follow-up: 51 months). Twenty-eight (3.9%) participants with HCM experienced TEs, 60% (17 of 28) of whom had no new-onset AF. Those who experienced TEs had lower LA reservoir and conduit strains (16.2% ± 7.3 vs 21.8% ± 8.3, P = .001; 5.9% ± 3.5 vs 9.7% ± 5.5, P = .01, respectively), with no evidence of a difference in LA booster strain between groups. LA reservoir and conduit strain were independent predictors of TEs in different multivariable models, even after adjusting for age, diabetes, and left ventricular ejection fraction (adjusted hazard ratios: reservoir strain [per 5% decrease], 1.29-1.34 [95% CI: 1.05, 1.50]; conduit strain [per 5% decrease], 1.42-1.47 [95% CI: 1.04, 1.67]). Conclusion Cardiac MRI-derived LA reservoir and conduit strain were independent predictors for the occurrence of TEs in individuals with HCM without AF. Keywords: MR-Imaging, Left Atrium, Cardiomyopathies, Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy, Thromboembolism, Cardiac Magnetic Resonance Chinese Clinical Trial Registry no. ChiCTR1900024094 Supplemental material is available for this article. © RSNA, 2025.

Positive association of large alcohol intake per occasion with vision-threatening severe diabetic retinopathy or diabetic macular edema in Japanese men with type 2 diabetes.

Differing from the overall consumption of alcohol, whether consuming large quantities of alcohol per drinking occasion is associated with higher risk of developing severe diabetic retinopathy remains unknown. We examined whether the quantity per drinking occasion (QPO), including a large QPO, and the combinations of the frequency of alcohol consumption (FAC) and QPO were associated with higher risk of developing severe diabetic retinopathy or diabetic macular edema (DME) using adjusted Cox models. Severe diabetic retinopathy or DME was designated as a vision-threatening treatment-required diabetic eye disease (TRDED). For each man with type 2 diabetes who participated in this longitudinal retrospective cohort study, the date of the earliest health check-up during the inclusion period (April 2008 to August 2016) was set as the start date of follow-up. A TRDED was observed in 425 of 21,392 Japanese men aged 22-74years with type 2 diabetes during a mean follow-up of 4.3years (4.6/1000 person-years). Multivariable Cox analysis showed that a large QPO, defined as drinking three drinks or more per occasion, in low- (hazard ratio [HR], 4.76; 95% CI, 2.06-10.97), intermediate- (HR, 1.58; 95%CI, 1.001-2.50), and high-frequency categories (HR, 2.01; 95% CI, 1.20-3.36) was significantly associated with elevated risks of TRDED. In addition to the total amount of ethanol, these findings imply the necessity of avoiding the consumption of large amounts of alcohol on a single occasion to prevent severe diabetic retinopathy or DME.

Development of a modified nutritional index model based on nutritional status and sarcopenia to predict long-term survival and chemotherapy benefits in elderly patients with advanced gastric cancer

BackgroundElderly patients with advanced gastric cancer have poor prognoses. This study aims to develop a prediction model for long-term survival after radical surgery and to identify patients who may benefit from chemotherapy. MethodsData from 555 elderly patients with advanced gastric cancer admitted to two medical centers from 2009 to 2018 were retrospectively analyzed. Sarcopenia was combined with the Controlling Nutritional Status (CONUT) score to create a modified nutritional index (mCONUT). Cox regression analyses were used to develop a novel nomogram prediction model (mCNS) that combined mCONUT, pN, and tumor size, and its performance was further verified both internally and externally. ResultsMultivariate Cox analysis revealed that tumor size, pN, and mCONUT were independent prognostic risk factors for overall survival (OS). The mCNS model showed good fit and high predictive value (AUC: training set 0.711; validation set 0.707), outperforming the pTNM model (p<0.05). To further investigate the association between the model and adjuvant chemotherapy, we categorized the model into two risk groups : a high-risk group and a low-risk group. Further analysis revealed that, in the low-risk group, the OS and recurrence-free survival(RFS) for patients receiving adjuvant chemotherapy was significantly better than that of those who did not receive chemotherapy (p=0.047,p=0.019). In the high-risk group, this result was not observed (p=0.120, p=0.053). ConclusionThe mCNS model has high predictive value in predicting long-term survival of elderly patients with advanced gastric cancer. Patients with mCNS-L were able to benefit from chemotherapy after laparoscopic radical gastrectomy.

Kidney Biopsy-Proven Diabetic and Non-Diabetic Kidney Diseases and Outcomes in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Receiving Dialysis: The REIN Registry.

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) in patients with diabetes does not always equate to diabetic kidney disease (DKD). This study aims to delineate and compare the clinical characteristics, survival rates, and access to kidney transplantation among patients with type 2 diabetes commencing dialysis, who were classified by kidney biopsy as having either DKD or non-diabetic kidney disease (non-DKD). We used the comprehensive French Renal Epidemiology and Information Network registry to analyze baseline clinical characteristics at dialysis inception and outcomes defined as death and access to kidney transplantation. We employed a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model and the Fine-Gray competing risk model to assess the probabilities of mortality and transplantation. Adults in the Renal Epidemiology and Information Network registry in France with a diagnosis of type 2 diabetes who initiated kidney replacement therapy from January 2009 to December 2015 and had a previous native kidney biopsy. We analyzed data from 2,869 patients with diabetes, 45% of whom had a biopsy-confirmed diagnosis of DKD. Among these patients, half presented additional histopathological findings indicative of nephroangiosclerosis and focal segmental glomerulosclerosis. The clinical profiles of patients with DKD and non-DKD were largely comparable. There were no significant differences in dialysis survival rates or kidney transplantation access between the groups, even after adjusting for confounding variables and considering competing risks. At the 6-year mark, the mortality rate was 60.3% (95% CI: 55.5-64.5) for the DKD group and 60.3% (95%CI: 55.9-64.3) for the non-DKD group. Multivariable Cox analysis revealed no significant difference in mortality risk between the DKD and non-DKD groups. The study limitations include potential residual confounders, lack of predialysis data, kidney biopsies possibly outdated, nonrandom biopsy indications, and survival bias because of analysis at dialysis inception. In patients with diabetes initiating dialysis, clinical characteristics and outcomes following dialysis initiation were similar in biopsy-proven DKD versus non-DKD. Our results suggest that the diabetic milieu has a more significant impact on outcomes in patients with diabetes treated with dialysis than the underlying pathological kidney diagnosis.

Factors Influencing Liver Cirrhosis Progression in Wilson's Disease Patients: A Retrospective Cohort Study Over 5 Years.

Wilson's disease (WD) is a rare autosomal recessive inherited disorder characterized by dysregulated copper metabolism, amenable to treatment with chelating agents. It manifests with hepatic and neurological symptoms, often precipitating the development of liver cirrhosis as a prominent complication. This study aims to elucidate the factors, biomarker alterations, and therapeutic modalities influencing the progression of cirrhosis in WD patients. This retrospective cohort study utilized WD patient data from West China Fourth Hospital (May 2018-September 2023). The primary outcome was the development of cirrhosis in initially cirrhosis-free WD patients. LASSO-COX regression identified predictive factors. The 1:1 propensity score matching generated a matched subgroup for robust Cox regression validation. Among 133 initially cirrhosis-free WD patients, 47 developed cirrhosis during 35.98 (22.04-49.21) months. Significant differences were observed between the cirrhosis and non-cirrhosis groups in age at enrollment, age at WD diagnosis, clinical symptoms, educational levels, and administration of dimercaptosuccinic acid, compound glycyrrhizin polyene, and phosphatidylcholine. Multivariate Cox regression identified age at enrollment (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.038, 95% CI: 1.002-1.075), the use of glycyrrhizin (HR: 0.421, 95% CI: 0.192-0.926), erythrocyte (HR: 0.748, 95% CI: 0.626-0.895), and platelet counts (HR: 0.993, 95% CI: 0.988-0.998) associated with cirrhosis. Robust Cox analysis on the matched subgroup confirmed these findings. Glycyrrhizic acid emerges as a potential hepatoprotective agent for WD patients. Furthermore, the progression of cirrhosis in WD patients is characterized by advanced age and decreased baseline levels of erythrocytes and platelets, suggesting their potential utility as prognostic indicators.

Development of a novel risk signature revealing prognostic and tumor microenvironmental features in breast cancer.

This study aimed to devise a breast cancer (BC) risk signature for based on pyrimidine metabolism-related genes (PMRGs) to evaluate its prognostic value and association with drug sensitivity. Transcriptomic and clinical data were retrieved from The Cancer Genome Atlas database and Gene Expression Omnibus repository. Pyrimidine metabolism-associated genes were identified from the Molecular Signatures Database collection. A risk signature was constructed through Cox regression and Lasso regression methods. Further, the relationship between the PMRG-derived risk feature and clinicopathological characteristics, gene expression patterns, somatic mutations, drug susceptibility, and tumor immune microenvironment was thoroughly investigated, culminating in the development of a nomogram. PMRGs displayed differential expression and diverse somatic mutations in BC. Univariate Cox analysis identified 36 genes significantly associated with BC prognosis, leading to the categorization of 2 BC molecular subtypes with discernible differences in prognosis. Using Lasso Cox regression, a risk signature composed of 16 PMRGs was established, wherein high-risk scores were indicative of poor prognosis. The PMRG-derived risk feature was also related to chemotherapy regimens and showed significant correlations with sensitivity to multiple drugs. Furthermore, distinct tumor immune microenvironment properties, gene expression profiles, and somatic mutation patterns were evident across varying risk scores. Ultimately, a nomogram was constructed incorporating the PMRGs-based risk signature alongside stage, and chemotherapy status, demonstrating excellent performance in prognosis prediction. We successfully developed a PMRG-based BC risk signature that effectively combines with clinicopathological attributes for accurate prognosis assessment in BC.

Progression of the Residual Lesion in Cavernous Sinus Extra-Axial Cavernous Hemangioma After Surgery.

Our study aimedto investigate the factors associated with residual cavernous sinus extra-axial cavernous hemangiomas (ECHs) progression after surgery. This retrospective study consecutively included patients of cavernous sinus ECHs with incomplete lesion resection from February 2012 to January 2024. The progression of the lesions was defined as new lesions or a growth of residual lesion (≥ 10% increase in volume). Cox regression analysis was used to determine factors associated with residual lesion progression. Kaplan-Meier analysis was conducted to estimate the cumulative incidence of residual lesion progression. Sixty patients were included in this study. During the follow-up, there were 31 (51.7%) residual lesions underwent progression, whereas 29 (48.3%) patients were nonprogressive. Multivariate Cox analysis showed that the homogeneous enhancement lesion was correlated with the residual lesion progression (HR, 8.17 [95% CI, 1.03-64.58]; p = 0.046). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis indicated that the rate of homogeneous enhancement lesion progression (3.7 per 10 person-years) was significantly higher than that of the heterogeneous enhancement group (0.5 per 10 person-years; p = 0.019). Fourteen of the 31 patients with lesion progression underwent radiotherapy, and all of them experienced control over the progression of their lesions. This study found thatend-of-treatment residual lesions are not rare in patients with cavernous sinus ECHs and the MRI feature is helpful to predict the progression of residual lesions.

Hepatocellular carcinoma with multiple primary malignancy: ARetrospective Study of 106 Cases.

Multiple primary malignancies (MPM) are a rare scenario, particularly in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Research addressing MPM patients with HCC is limited. Therefore, we conducted a retrospective study to explore the clinical features and outcomes of MPM patients involving HCC. We retrospectively analyzed records of patients diagnosed with HCC from January 2013 to October 2023 in the First Affiliated Hospital of Xiamen University.HCC patients with extrahepatic tumors were identified. Their clinical characteristics and survival data were were further analyzed. Among the 1556patients with HCC,106 (6.8%) were identified with EHPM,of which29weresynchronous and 77weremetachronous. A total of 96 patientshad doubleprimary cancers,and10patientshad triple primary cancers. The most common EHPMs were lung cancer (15%), followed by colorectal tumors and stomach cancer. Compared with the synchronous group, the curative treatment rate of HCC and EHPMin the metachronous groupis higher. Duringfollow-up period,29 patients died,of which20 (69%)diedfrom HCC-related causes. The median overall survival (OS) time was 88 months, with 1-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year cumulative survival rates of 92.4%, 88%, 82.5%, and 69.6%, respectively. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year HCC-specific OS (HOS) rates were 81.8%, 75.8%, and 71.9%, respectively. Univariate analysis revealed that Child-Pugh class (B-C), HCC tumor size >5cm, non-radical treatment for HCC or EHPM, HCC recurrence, BCLC staging (C-D), and synchronous appearance were significantly associated with shorter OS and HOS. Factors such as Childs class, tumor size, treatment modality, and synchronous presentation were identified as independent predictors of OS through Cox analysis. Childs class, tumor size, non-radical treatment, BCLC staging, and HCC recurrence were found to be independent factors affecting HOS. The occurrence of extrahepatic primary tumors is not rare, underscoring the importance for oncologists being alerttothedevelopment of secondary tumor development in HCC patients. However, the co-occurrence of other primary tumors alongside HCC does not appear to worsen patient prognosis. Notably, curative resection, where feasible, emerges as a vital factor in extending patient survival.

Effectiveness and safety of tofacitinib versus calcineurin inhibitor in interstitial lung disease secondary to anti-MDA5-positive dermatomyositis: a multi-centre cohort study.

To compare the effectiveness and safety of tofacitinib (TOF) versus calcineurin inhibitor (CNI) as initial immunosuppressive regimen for anti-melanoma differentiation-associated gene 5-positive dermatomyositis with interstitial lung disease (MDA5+DM-ILD). Adult Chinese patients with newly-diagnosed MDA5+DM-ILD (ILD course<3 months) from five tertiary referral centres between April 2014 and January 2023 were included for this retrospective cohort study. The primary effectiveness endpoint was lung transplantation-free survival within 1 year. Propensity score-based inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) was applied for adjustment in this real-world study. In the eligible cohort, a total of 94 (32.4%) and 105 (46.7%) patients died or underwent lung transplantation within 1 year in the TOF group (n=290) and the CNI group (n=225), respectively. After adjustment by IPTW, patients' lung transplantation-free survival rate within 1 year was significantly higher in the TOF group compared to the CNI group (log-rank p=0.013). Multivariable Cox analysis performed in the IPTW dataset revealed the hazard ratio of TOF versus CNI for 1-year survival was 0.72 (95% CI, 0.56 to 0.94, p=0.013). The adjusted difference of survival rate was 9.3% (95%CI 2.8% to 15.8%). Alternative analytic strategies yielded consistent results in sensitivity analyses. Patients less than 60 years old, without RPILD, or with baseline PaO2/FiO2 ≥300 mmHg might benefit more from TOF. Opportunistic infection was the major treatment-related serious adverse event, with generally comparable incidence (42.4% versus 45.3%). In this large multi-centre cohort study, tofacitinib showed significantly more benefits for 1-year lung transplantation-free survival than calcineurin inhibitors in MDA5+DM-ILD.

The association between systemic inflammation markers and the risk of incident dilated cardiomyopathy: a prospective study of 351,148 participants

Background The role of systemic inflammation in the development and progression of cardiovascular diseases has been attractive, but its association with incident dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) is rarely investigated. This study aimed to systematically investigate the association between various inflammatory markers and DCM incidence. Methods The data were derived from the UK Biobank database. Systemic inflammation markers in this study encompassed peripheral immune cell counts and their ratios and the low-grade inflammation score (INFLA-score). The Cox proportional hazards regression, restricted cubic splines model, and segmented regression were adopted to assess the association between systemic inflammation markers and DCM incidence. Additionally, the subgroup Cox analysis stratified across sex was also performed. Results A total of 351,148 participants were enrolled in this study, and 377 subjects developed DCM during a mean follow-up of 12.21 years. The positive association between C-reactive protein (CRP), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and CRP-to-lymphocyte ratio (CLR) and DCM incident risk was found (CRP: HR = 1.190, P = 0.001; NLR: HR = 1.315, P = 0.033; CLR: HR = 1.206, P < 0.001), while the lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR) was negatively associated with DCM incident risk (HR = 0.756; P = 0.033). Furthermore, the increased risk of DCM incidence was significantly and nonlinearly correlated with the reduction of platelet count (HR = 0.543; P = 0.002). In the subgroup analysis, sex-specific inflammation markers related to DCM development were noticed. Conclusions The study has underlined that multiple inflammation markers were significantly associated with the risk of incident DCM, which would provide evidence for the aetiological study of DCM.

Developing a novel model for predicting overall survival in late-onset colon adenocarcinoma patients based on LODDS: a study based on the SEER database and external validation

AimTo construct a predictive model based on the LODDS stage established for patients with late-onset colon adenocarcinoma to enhance survival stratification.MethodsLate-onset colon adenocarcinoma data were obtained from the public database. After determining the optimal LODDS truncation value for the training set via X-tile software, we created a new staging system by integrating the T stage and M stage. Nomograms of the prognostic model were created after Cox analyses identified independent risk factors for overall survival (OS) and cause-specific survival (CSS) and were validated internally and externally. The efficacy of the nomograms was assessed by calibration, time-dependent area under the curve (AUC) and decision curve analysis (DCA). Finally, the prognoses of the patients were compared by plotting survival curves on the basis of risk scores.ResultsA total of 103,291 and 100 patients with late-onset colon adenocarcinoma (50–80 years old) were screened from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) and The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) databases, respectively. Cox regression analysis revealed independent risk factors for OS and CSS, including age, gender, race, size, LODDS stage, PLN stage, LNR stage, and TNM stage. A comparison of the four models constructed on the basis of different stages revealed that the model constructed with the LODDS stage had the minimum AIC (Akaike information criterion), maximum C-index (concordance index) and time-dependent AUC. Nomograms based on the LODDS stage were constructed and successfully validated for accuracy and clinical utility.ConclusionFor patients with late-onset colon adenocarcinoma, LODDS may achieve optimal predictive performance. Furthermore, compared to the 8th edition of the AJCC classification system, the nomogram based on LODDS stage may demonstrate superior survival prediction capabilities.

Prediction of mortality and heart failure admission with the mitraScore after percutaneous mitral valve repair: an external validation study

Abstract Background Prediction of events is critical in decision-making for transcatheter edge-to-edge mitral valve repair (TEER). A new score has been reported for this aim, the MitraScore, that showed adequate performance for predicting death and heart failure rehospitalization in an external validation cohort described in the original publication. Purpose Our aim was to perform an external validation of this prognostic score in an independent sample. Methods The MitraScore assigned 1 point to each independent predictor of mortality found in the validation cohort: age ≥75 years, anemia, glomerular filtrate rate &amp;lt;60 mL/min/1.73 m2, left ventricular ejection fraction &amp;lt;40%, peripheral artery disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, high diuretic dose, and no therapy with renin-angiotensin inhibitors. We calculated the MitraScore in every subject of a prospective cohort of patients treated with TEER in a single institution from November 2011 to January 2024. Association of the score with mortality and the combined end-point of heart failure admission or death was assessed by the Cox proportional hazard method and Kaplan Meier curves. Discrimination was studied by receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve. Results A total of 191 consecutive patients (median age [p25-75] 74 [64-80] years, 33% female) were included in the study. Our sample differed significantly from the original derivation and validation cohorts in several baseline variables (figure 1). After a median follow up of 24 [9-50] months, 92 patients (48.4%) had 160 admissions for heart failure and 73 patients died (38.2%). MitraScore, as a continuous variable, had a significant association with mortality and the combined end-point in follow-up, either by univariate Cox analysis (HR 1.36 [1.11-1.66] per each score point, p=0.003 for all-cause mortality, and HR 1.35 [1.11-1.65] per each score point, p=0.003 for the combined end-point), and Kaplan Meier analysis (figure 2). Discrimination by ROC analysis was nearly significant for both end-points (C statistics 0.58 [0.50-0.67], p=0.052 for all-cause mortality, and HR 0.58 [0.49-0.66], p=0.068 for the combined end-point). Conclusion The MitraScore, considered as a continuous variable, was significantly associated with mortality and the combined end-point of heart failure admission or death in follow-up in the present external validation study. These data support the use of this prognostic index in risk stratification for patients treated with TEER.

Whole slide image based deep learning refines prognosis and therapeutic response evaluation in lung adenocarcinoma

Existing prognostic models are useful for estimating the prognosis of lung adenocarcinoma patients, but there remains room for improvement. In the current study, we developed a deep learning model based on histopathological images to predict the recurrence risk of lung adenocarcinoma patients. The efficiency of the model was then evaluated in independent multicenter cohorts. The model defined high- and low-risk groups successfully stratified prognosis of the entire cohort. Moreover, multivariable Cox analysis identified the model defined risk groups as an independent predictor for disease-free survival. Importantly, combining TNM stage with the established model helped to distinguish subgroups of patients with high-risk stage II and stage III disease who are highly likely to benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy. Overall, our study highlights the significant value of the constructed model to serve as a complementary biomarker for survival stratification and adjuvant therapy selection for lung adenocarcinoma patients after resection.

Myocardial work and extravalvular cardiac damage stages: hand-in-hand predictors of all-cause mortality in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve replacement

Abstract In patients with aortic stenosis (AS) evaluating left ventricular (LV) systolic function is challenging due to the influence of increased afterload on traditional measures. Myocardial work (MW) analysis, a novel echocardiographic method, adjusts myocardial deformation to instantaneous LV pressure, providing a more accurate reflection of LV contractile state. Notably, prolonged LV pressure overload induces significant backward effects beyond the LV; the classification of this extravalvular cardiac damage effectively represents the cardiopulmonary system's involvement in AS. Both MW analysis and cardiac damage staging may possess significant prognostic value in the clinically complex cohort of transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) candidates. Thus, our objective was to evaluate the prognostic value of MW analysis and cardiac damage staging in TAVR patients. We enrolled 314 patients (79±6 years, 40% female) prior to TAVR. Echocardiographic assessments were conducted one day before the procedure. LV ejection fraction (EF) was calculated, global longitudinal strain (GLS) was measured using speckle-tracking echocardiography. LV pressure was estimated from systolic blood pressure and transaortic mean gradient, and global constructive work (GCW) was quantified using dedicated software. Based on echocardiographic data, we determined the extent of cardiac damage associated with AS, categorizing patients into Stage 0 (no cardiac damage), Stage 1 (LV damage), Stage 2 (mitral valve or left atrial damage), Stage 3 (pulmonary artery vasculature or tricuspid valve damage), or Stage 4 (right ventricular damage). The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality, reached by 69 patients during a median follow-up period of 25 months. Preprocedural EF was 47±13 %, GLS was -12.3±4.2 %, GCW was 2043±769 mmHg%. 14 (5%) patients were classified as Stage 0, 61 (20%) as Stage 1, 133 (43%) as Stage 2, 22 (7%) as Stage 3, and 74 (24%) as Stage 4. GCW showed a decline through AS Stages (from Stage 0-4: 2963±652 vs. 2154±621 vs. 2174±706 vs. 2044±827 vs. 1553±757 mmHg%; p&amp;lt;0.001). Using univariate Cox analysis GCW (HR 0.968 [95% CI 0.938-0.998] per 100 unit change; p=0.034) and AS Staging (HR 1.236 [95% CI 1.016-1.505]; p=0.034) were associated with all-cause mortality, while EF (HR 0.982 [95% CI 0.964-1.001]; p=NS) and GLS (HR 1.047 [95% CI 0.989-1.108]; p=NS) were not. In multivariate Cox regression models, both GCW (HR 0.958 [95% CI 0.923-0.994] per 100 unit change; p=0.022) and AS cardiac damage staging (HR 1.281 [95% CI 1.040-1.577]; p=0.020) were significant independent predictors of all-cause mortality. In TAVR patients, preoperative GCW values continuously decreased across all AS Stages. GCW and AS Staging showed strong association with all-cause mortality in our cohort, while EF and GLS did not. Furthermore, GCW and AS Staging had higher prognostic value than any other echocardiographic measure, highlighing their role in preprocedural assessment before TAVR.

Weight censorial score: estimation of the weight loss during concurrent chemo-radiotherapy in nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients by image features predicts prognosis.

Bodyweight loss is commonly found in Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma patients during Concurrent Chemo-radiotherapy (CCRT) and has implications for treatment decisions. However, the prognostic value of this weight loss remains uncertain. We addressed it by proposing a novel index Weight Censorial Score (WCS) that characterizes the patient-specific CCRT response on actual to estimated weight loss. A retrospective study included 315 patients from two independent hospitals. An Estimated WCS (eWCS) was obtained through linear regression of image and dosimetry features. The eWCS was converted to an estimated net weight loss (nWL), with its accuracy evaluated. The Determined WCS (dWCS) was calculated by centering and scaling the post-RT actual nWL with patient's pre-RT body information. The ratio of dWCS to eWCS (WCS ratio) reflected the actual to estimated weight loss of a patient. The prognostic ability of WCS ratio dichotomized at 1 was evaluated. The mean absolute error of estimated to actual nWL was 1.84kg. Patients who had their actual WL larger than estimated WL were found to have significantly worse OS (p = 0.005, HR = 3.35[1.45-7.73]), PFS (p = 0.038, HR = 1.86[1.03-3.35]), and DMFS (p = 0.050, HR = 2.20[1.00-4.85]), respectively, in multivariable cox analysis. They were also found not to benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy (p = 0.572), whereas the adjuvant chemotherapy provided significant PFS benefit in patients with actual WL smaller than estimated WL (p = 0.036, HR = 0.53[0.29-0.96]). The nWL of patient during CCRT can be reasonably estimated by dosimetry factors at pre-RT stage. The prognostic value of the actual to expected weight loss holds promise for highlighting vulnerable patients after CCRT.

The obesity paradox in osteoporosis risk among older adults is mostly driven by women: a population-based prospective study

ObjectivesThe obesity paradox is common among older adults at risk for various diseases. Although this paradox has also been observed in the association between obesity and osteoporosis, the available evidence remains controversial. This study aimed to investigate the association between obesity and OP risk in an older population.MethodsA cross-sectional and prospective study was conducted using data from 177,734 participants in the UK Biobank. The association of body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), and fat percentage with BMD was examined using Spearman correlation analysis with baseline BMD data. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to investigate the association between obesity and OP risk. Restricted cubic spline (RCS) were used to assess the nonlinear associations of BMI, WC, and fat percentage with OP.ResultsBaseline cross-sectional analyses revealed a significant positive association between BMI, WC, and fat percentage with BMD in women, whereas this association was very weak in men. A total of 8,998 OP patients were identified during a median follow-up period of 13.7 years. Cox analyses showed that obesity as defined by BMI, WC, and fat percentage was associated with a 33%, 23%, and 31% reduction in the risk of OP in older women but not in men, respectively. Conjoint analysis showed that lower BMI was associated with increased risk of OP in older adults, whereas the lowest risk was observed in women with higher BMI and higher body fat. RCS revealed an inverse J-shaped nonlinear association between obesity metrics and OP risk in women.ConclusionLower BMI is an independent risk factor for OP in older adults, and the obesity paradox for OP risk exists only in women.