The aim of the study is to evaluate the efficacy and prognosis of neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) combined with breast-conserving surgery (BCS) in treating triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) and analyze the influencing factors and predictors of the efficiency and prognosis of NAC. A retrospective cohort study was conducted by dividing patients into two groups according to two different therapy methods. With BCS as the exposure factor, 46 cases were assigned to the exposed group and 80 cases to the nonexposed group. We compare the difference in operation-related indicators, postoperative complications, local recurrence rate, distant metastasis rate, and overall survival (OS) rate between the two groups. The factors affecting the efficiency and prognosis of NAC were analyzed by binary logistic regression, and the optimal cutoff value was determined by the area under the ROC curve (AUC). The survival curve was plotted, and the univariate log-rank test was performed to analyze the difference in OS between the two groups. The influencing factors of OS were analyzed by the Cox risk regression model. NAC + BCS resulted in significantly less intraoperative blood loss, lower incidence of postoperative complications, and shorter operative time and length of hospital stay than that in NAC (P < 0.05). There was no significant difference in local recurrence, distant metastasis, or OS between the two groups (P > 0.05). Multivariate analysis showed that the clinical stage I and Ki-67 high expression were independent protective factors of the efficacy of NAC. The high expression of Ki-67 and nondecline expression of Ki-67 were independent risk factors of prognosis. Ki-67 high expression was an independent risk factor of OS (P < 0.05). The ROC curve showed that the AUC of Ki-67 for NAC efficacy, prognosis, and OS were 0.706, 0.820, and 0.687, respectively, with optimal cutoff values of 25.5%, 29.0%, and 32.5%, respectively. Survival analysis showed that the OS of patients with NAC + BCS was 73.9% and NAC + MRM was 70.0% (P > 0.05). In the low expression subgroup of Ki-67, the OS of the two groups were 100.0% and 77.8%, respectively (P=0.060). In the high expression subgroup of Ki-67, the OS of the two groups were 53.8% and 63.6%, respectively (P=0.419). NAC + BCS is a good method for treating TNBC, which has an obvious short-term effect and a good long-term prognosis. Clinical stage I and the high expression of Ki-67 are independent protective factors for the efficacy of NAC. The high expression of Ki-67 and nondecline expression of Ki-67 are independent risk factors of prognosis. Ki-67 is a potential predictor for the efficacy, prognosis, and OS of NAC in TNBC patients. The high expression of Ki-67 indicates better NAC efficacy, a poorer prognosis, and a lower OS.