AimsThe aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between preoperative left atrial function and recurrence of atrial fibrillation (AF) after mitral valve surgery and Cox Maze procedure in patients with moderate-to-severe rheumatic mitral stenosis (MS) combined with AF, in order to facilitate clinical risk stratification and to guide treatment strategies. Methods and resultsPatients with moderate-to-severe rheumatic MS attending Beijing Anzhen Hospital of Capital Medical University from April 2022 to September 2023 were prospectively collected, and all of them underwent transthoracic two-dimensional speckle-tracking echocardiography to assess left atrial structure and function before undergoing mitral valve surgery and Cox Maze procedure and postoperative follow-up. 121 patients were enrolled, of whom 77.69 % (94/121) were female, with a median follow-up time of 9.56 ± 1.83 months, and 48 patients (39.7 %, 48/121) had postoperative recurrence of AF. Preoperative left atrial stiffness index (LASI) [3.76(3.10–5.44) vs. 2.41(1.75–3.33), P < 0.001] and left atrial mechanical dispersion (SD-TPS) (15.84 ± 5.92vs. 11.58 ± 5.96, P = 0.001) were significantly higher in the postoperative AF recurrence group than in the without recurrence group; Multivariable cox regression analysis showed that LASI>3.15 and SD -TPS > 13.2 were associated with independent risk factors for AF recurrence (hazard ratio = 2.957, 95 %CI,1.366–6.399, P = 0.006 and hazard ratio = 2.892, 95 %CI,1.381–6.057, P = 0.005). ConclusionLASI and SD-TPS were effective predictors of postoperative recurrence of AF in patients with moderate-to-severe rheumatic MS, and LASI >3.15 and SD-TPS% >13.2 were independent influences on the recurrence of AF after Cox Maze in this group of patients.