COVID-19 Shock Research Articles

Prognostic value of soluble endoglin in patients with septic shock and severe COVID-19.

Sepsis is a clinical syndrome characterized by a dysregulated response to infection. It represents a leading cause of mortality in ICU patients worldwide. Although sepsis is in the point of interest of research for several decades, its clinical management and patient survival are improving slowly. Monitoring of the biomarkers and their combinations could help in early diagnosis, estimation of prognosis and patient's stratification and response to the treatment. Circulating soluble endoglin (sEng) is the cleaved extracellular part of transmembrane glycoprotein endoglin. As a biomarker, sEng has been tested in several pathologic conditions where its elevation was associated with endothelial dysfunction. In this study we have tested the ability of sEng to predict mortality and its correlation with other clinical characteristics in the cohort of septic shock patients (n = 37) and patients with severe COVID-19 (n = 40). In patients with COVID-19 sEng did not predict mortality or correlate with markers of organ dysfunction. In contrast, in septic shock the level of sEng was significantly higher in patients with early mortality (p = 0.019; AUC = 0.801). Moreover, sEng levels correlated with signs of circulatory failure (required dose of noradrenalin and lactate levels; p = 0.002 and 0.016, respectively). The predominant clinical problem in patients with COVID-19 was ARDS, and although they often showed signs of other organ dysfunction, circulatory failure was exceptional. This potentially explains the difference between sEng levels in COVID-19 and septic shock. In conclusion, we have confirmed that sEng may reflect the extent of the circulatory failure in septic shock patients and thus could be potentially used for the early identification of patients with the highest degree of endothelial dysfunction who would benefit from endothelium-targeted individualized therapy.

Covid-19, sovereign risk and monetary policy: Evidence from the European Monetary Union

This paper investigates the impact of Covid-19 pandemic and monetary policy measures adopted by the European Central Bank (ECB) on the sovereign risk for the European Monetary Union (EMU) countries for the period between March-2020 and November-2020 using daily data. The impact of Covid-19 and monetary policy shocks on the credit default swap rates and bond yields are investigated relying on a fixed effects panel regression model for five core (Germany, France, Austria, Netherlands, Belgium) and three periphery (Italy, Portugal and Spain) countries. To investigate the cross-country differences in responses, the interactions of the independent variables with periphery dummy and other country-specific variables are included in the regressions. The results of the empirical analysis suggest that Covid-19 shock increased the sovereign risk in the periphery EMU countries significantly and monetary policy measures have been effective in easing financial conditions in these countries. The results are insignificant for the core countries. The results also show that financial stability alleviates the negative impact of Covid-19 on the sovereign risk.

Quantifying the Impact of COVID-19 Relief Vouchers Schemes on Food Security: Empirical Evidence Insights from South Africa

Livestock production systems are essential for sustaining household food security, especially in the drylands of Africa. This study assesses the impact of South Africa’s targeted Large Stock Unit (LSU) social protection program on the acute food insecurity effects of the COVID-19 pandemic among selected smallholder livestock farmers. An embedded research approach was utilized in four local municipalities purposively selected in the Northern Cape Province, where 217 households were selected using a stratified proportionate random method. A structured questionnaire was employed, while secondary data on beneficiary farmers were collected from implementing agencies. A full information maximum likelihood (FIML) Endogenous Switching Regression (ESR) model was adopted to capture variations due to self-selection bias among respondents. ESR model results show that the decision maker’s age, the household head’s education level, the land holdings’ size, average relative livestock losses, the orientation of production, and the level of external support impact food security. The study concludes that based on average treatment effects analysis, beneficiaries of the LSU program are better off in the household food security relative to their non-beneficiary counterparts. These findings validate the need for enhancing support initiatives during COVID-19 shocks for households to attain food security using their main livelihood sources as the gateway. Increasing the diversity of livelihood strategies in these vulnerable communities needs to be scaled up to protect households from acute food insecurity. Targeted support programs, including direct financing and binding networks, may also be supported through youth-sensitive training programs to enhance mitigations and resilience against COVID-19 acute food insecurity. A policy can tap into existing local structures and province-wide institutional platforms for the long-term sustainability of the LSU support initiatives and mitigation of COVID-19 food security vulnerabilities.

Trajectories of loneliness, depressive symptoms, and anxiety symptoms during the COVID-19 pandemic in Austria

ObjectiveThere is considerable heterogeneity within populations regarding the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on mental health. This study aimed at identifying latent groups of individuals within the older Austrian population that differ in their mental health trajectories across three phases of the pandemic. Study designData were gathered from a longitudinal survey study among a sample of older adults in Austria. The survey was carried out in May 2020 (N1 = 556), March 2021 (N2 = 462), and December 2021 (N3 = 370) via either computer-assisted web or telephone interviewing. MethodsLatent class growth analysis was conducted to explore different homogenous groups in terms of non-linear trajectories of loneliness, depressive symptoms, and anxiety symptoms as well as potential correlates thereof. ResultsWe identified four latent classes. The vast majority of individuals belong to two classes that are either resilient (71%) or that have recovered relatively quickly from an initial COVID-19 shock (10.2%). Deterioration in mental health after the first phase of the pandemic (13.4%) or a generally high mental health burden (5.4%) characterizes the other two classes. ConclusionsAbout 19% of individuals showed increasing or elevated levels in loneliness, depressive symptoms, and anxiety symptoms across the COVID-19 pandemic. The feeling of being socially supported and in control over one's own life emerged as potentially protective factors.

Chinese Commodity Price Evidence Study for COVID-19 Shock and Price Stickiness Model Design

Based on the high-frequency price data, this article estimates the extent of price stickiness, identifies the pricing model, and applies the micro-results to analyze the dynamic characteristics of inflation. The results show that the price moves downward steadily during the COVID-19 epidemic. Secondly, the commodity price displays low stickiness, and the pricing model shows the time-dependent pricing (TDP) model in general. Finally, the inflation inertia is negative, indicating the macro-control is effective on COVID-19 epidemic and has the feature of contradiction to the economic cycle. And inflation inertia mainly comes from food commodities, which means that the anchoring object of the policy should be food commodities during the COVID-19 pandemic.

COVID-19, Macroeconomic and Sustainability Shocks, Moral Hazard and Resolution of Systemic Banking Crises: Designing Appropriate Systems of Public Support

Banks have so far weathered well the financial turbulence caused by COVID-19 while at the same time being central in the economic and financial response. As the crisis moves from its initial phase as a short-term liquidity shock, the financial sector is facing increasing volumes of non-performing loans, raising the spectre of a banking solvency crisis. In economies already burdened with low-quality assets, the COVID-19 fallout is intensifying existing problems with legacy loans heightening the risk of a banking crisis. These issues are now being worsened by the impact of inflation and the invasion of Ukraine. Thus, addressing increasing volumes of bad loans, while supporting the proper functioning of the financial system, is a major challenge with systemic repercussions for a range of economies. This paper identifies a great paradox: since the bank rescues of the 2008–9 Global Financial Crisis there has been a disproportionate focus on the liability side of bank balance sheets through resolution measures such as bail-in and the accumulation of bail-inable debt. Post-crisis bank resolution regimes have overlooked solutions lying within the asset side of bank balance sheets. This paper analyses historical evidence to argue that concentrating on a liability-focused approach to the exclusion of asset-side solutions is ill-conceived. An excessive accumulation of non-performing loans on the asset side of bank balance sheets inevitably renders resolution interventions on the liability/equity side ineffective or at the very least insufficient to maintain banking system viability and financial stability. Bank asset restructuring involving the use of asset management companies, asset protection schemes and even capital injections can play a critical role in achieving an expeditious restoration of banking systems’ health following a major macroeconomic, sustainability or financial crisis.

Inside out: human mobility big data show how COVID-19 changed the urban network structure in the Seoul Metropolitan Area

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has fundamentally changed human mobility patterns in cities. Lockdowns, social distancing and flexible working hours have restructured pre-existing dynamics between two opposing forces in major cities: centripetal and centrifugal. To scrutinise the new dynamics, human mobility in the Seoul Metropolitan Area in early 2020 was investigated using big data collected from cell phone activity. By suggesting a network-based approach to untangle complex human mobility in the urban network, this research contributes to understanding how the COVID-19 shock impacted human mobility patterns in everyday life and how human behaviours adapted to the new normal.

Estimating the Impact of COVID-19 on Changes in Volume Sales of Cigars, Smokeless Tobacco Products, Pipe, and Roll-your-own Tobacco in the United States.

IntroductionWe examined the potential impact of COVID-19 on trends in volume sales of non-cigarette combustible and smokeless tobacco products in the U.S.MethodsWe analyzed monthly national sales for cigars, smokeless tobacco, pipe, and roll-your-own tobacco during June 2019-June 2021. Data were from the U.S Department of the Treasury. Interrupted time series were used to measure associations of the COVID-19 “shock” (taken as June 2020 or 6 months after the first diagnosis of COVID-19 in the US) and volume sales. Negative binomial regression was used to evaluate associations between volume sales and changes in community mobility.ResultsWithin interrupted time series analysis, the shock of the COVID-19 pandemic was associated with an initial increase in the number of little cigars sold by 11.43 million sticks (p<0.01), with no significant sustained change in trend. The COVID-19 shock was also associated with an initial increase in large cigar volume sales by 59.02 million sticks, followed by a subsequent decrease by 32.57 million sticks per month (p=0.005). Every 10% reduction in mobility to retail stores was significantly associated with reduced volume sales of little cigars (IRR = 0.84, 95% CI, 0.71 to 0.98) and large cigars (IRR = 0.92, 95% CI, 0.88 to 0.96). Other findings were statistically non-significant.ConclusionCOVID-19 was associated with increased volume sales for cigars and there was a significant association between reduced mobility to points of sale and reduced cigar volume sales. Intensified efforts are needed to prioritize evidence-based tobacco prevention and control efforts amidst the pandemic.ImplicationsAt the six-month mark following the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in the US, we found that the shock of the COVID-19 pandemic was associated with a statistically significant initial increase in the number of little and large cigars sold nationwide.These COVID-19 related trends may have momentarily reversed the long-term declines seen in cigar sales prior to the pandemic.Intensified implementation of evidence-based tobacco control and prevention measures amidst the COVID-19 pandemic may help reduce aggregate tobacco consumption.

Perceptions of COVID-19 shocks and adoption of sustainable agricultural practices in Ghana

Most studies on the novel COVID-19 pandemic have focused mainly on human health, food systems, and employment with limited studies on how farmers implement sustainable agricultural practices (SAPs) in response to the pandemic. This study examines how perceptions of COVID-19 shocks influence the adoption of SAPs among smallholder farmers in Ghana. We find that perceptions of COVID-19 shocks influence the probability and intensity of SAPs adoption. Secondly, households who anticipated COVID-19 shocks recorded heterogeneity effects in the combinations (complementarity and substitutability) of SAPs. Farmers who anticipated an increase in input prices and loss of income due to COVID-19 recorded the highest complementarity association between pesticide and zero tillage while farmers who expected limited market access reported the highest complementarity between mixed cropping and mulching. Farmers who projected a decrease in output prices complements pesticides with mixed cropping. The findings suggest that understanding the heterogeneity effects in the combinations of SAPs due to COVID-19 shocks is critical to effectively design, target and disseminate sustainable intensification programs in a post-pandemic period.

How well-targeted are payroll tax cuts as a response to COVID-19? evidence from China.

Numerous countries cut payroll taxes in response to COVID-19, including China, which reduced employer contributions by up to 21 percentage points. We use administrative data on more than 800,000 Chinese firms to evaluate payroll tax cuts as a business relief measure. We estimate that the tax cuts cover 31.5% of the decline in business cash flow, but labor informality causes 53% of registered firms-24% of aggregate economic activity-to receive no benefits at all. We quantify the targeting of the policy in terms of how much benefits flow to small firms less able to access external finance and to sectors worse hit by COVID-19. We find that (1) small firms and vulnerable industries are comparatively more labor intensive, which leads to desirable targeting; (2) labor informality worsens, but does not eliminate, targeting by firm size; and (3) labor informality is uncorrelated with the COVID-19 shock, and therefore does not affect targeting by sector.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10797-022-09746-w.

Does anti-poverty intervention strengthen mental resilience? Evidence from the COVID-19 shock on targeted poverty alleviation program in China

ABSTRACT Resilience is beneficial for poor households to overcome the negative shocks and shake off the poverty trap completely in the long run. In this article we evaluate the impact of poverty alleviation intervention on mental resilience by exploiting the natural experiment of the COVID-19 shock. Using the survey data collected in early March 2020 from underdeveloped region in West China, we address the impact of targeted poverty alleviation program (TPAP) on confidence level of off-farm and total income recovery using the difference-in-difference method. We find that the program enhances mental resilience for the out of poverty households rather than the in poverty households, especially in terms of confidence level of off-farm income recovery. In addition, we also find that proactivity of employment takes account of the impact of TPAP on confidence level of off-farm income recovery.

Falling through the cracks: Increased vulnerability and limited social assistance for TB patients and their households during COVID-19 in Cape Town, South Africa.

Amid the COVID-19 crisis, Tuberculosis (TB) patients in South Africa, as elsewhere, faced increased vulnerability due to the consequences of the COVID-19 response such as loss of income, challenges to access diagnostic testing, healthcare services and TB medication. To mitigate the socio-economic impact of the pandemic, especially among the most vulnerable, the South African government expanded social assistance programmes by creating the Social Relief of Distress grant (SRDG), the first grant for unemployed adults in South Africa. Our study investigated how TB patients experienced the COVID-19 pandemic and the ensuing socio-economic fallout, how this affected their health and that of their household, income and coping mechanisms, and access to social assistance. We interviewed 15 TB patients at a health facility in Cape Town and analysed data thematically. To situate our findings, we adapted the United Nations' conceptual framework on determinants of vulnerability and resilience during or following a shock such as climate shocks or pandemics. We found increased vulnerability among TB patients due to a high exposure and sensitivity to the COVID-19 shock but diminished coping capacity. The loss of income in many households resulted not only in increased food insecurity but also a decreased ability to support others. For the most vulnerable, the loss of social support meant resorting to begging and going hungry, severely affecting their ability to continue treatment. In addition, most participants in the study and especially the most vulnerable, fell through the cracks of the most extensive social assistance programme in Africa as few participants were accessing the special COVID-19 SRDG. Targeted social protection for TB patients with a heightened vulnerability and low coping capacity is urgently needed. TB patients with a heightened vulnerability and low coping capacity should be prioritized for urgent assistance.

COVID-19 Shock and the Time-Varying Volatility Spillovers Among the Energy and Precious Metals Markets: Evidence From A DCC-GARCH-CONNECTEDNESS Approach.

The outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic intensified the volatility of commodity markets (the energy and precious metals markets), which created a significant negative impact on the volatility spillovers among these markets. It may also have triggered a new volatility risk contagion. In this paper, we introduce the DCC-GARCH-CONNECTEDNESS approach to explore the volatility spillover level and multi-level spillover structure characteristics among the commodity markets before and during the COVID-19 epidemic in order to clarify the new volatility risk contagion patterns across the markets. The results implied several conclusions. (i) The COVID-19 epidemic has significantly improved the total volatility spillover level of the energy and precious metals markets and has enhanced the risk connectivity among the markets. (ii) The COVID-19 epidemic has amplified the volatility of the crude oil market, making it the main volatility spillover market, namely the source of volatility risk contagion. (iii) The COVID-19 epidemic outbreak enhanced the external risk absorption capacity of the natural gas and silver markets, and the absorption level of the external volatility spillover improved significantly. Furthermore, the risk absorption capacity of the gold market weakened, while the gold market has remained the endpoint of external volatility risk during the epidemic and has acted as a risk stabilizer. (iv) The volatility spillover among markets has clear time-varying characteristics and a positive connectedness with the severity of the COVID-19 epidemic. As the severity of the COVID-19 epidemic increases, the volatility risk connectivity among the markets rapidly increases.

Do Oil Price Shocks and COVID-19 Lead to Policy Uncertainty?

This study examines the asymmetric effects of the structural oil price shocks and COVID-19 pandemic on four uncertainty indexes. The author used the SVAR approach for the period 31-Dec-2019 to 28-Jun-2020. The results indicate that the effects are asymmetric of oil price shocks. The author also finds that COVID-19 shocks lead to positive responses to the economic policy uncertainty index. In addition, oil prices (their shocks) have a negative impact on the four indicators of uncertainty. Consequently, governments should actively take effective measures to prevent crude oil prices from shocking and maintain stable economic policies.

COVID-19 Shock and Sectorial Index Response in South Africa: A Cross-sector Analysis

The prime objective of this study was to examine the impact of COVID-19 shock on sector returns of the South African Stock market. The study employed the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model estimated with a Pooled Mean Group estimator on a sample of daily stock returns of 10 Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) sectors. The results indicate a heterogeneous behaviour in sector stock return response to COVID-19 shock. The study shows that the Pandemic negatively impacted the majority of the sectors. However, some sectors were positively affected by the outbreak, while some were resilient to the shock. The pooled ARDL panel results show a negative relationship between COVID-19 and stock market returns in the short run. The study found an insignificant relationship between stock market returns and COVID-19 cases in the long run. The study also shows that sector and stock return response to different factors is time-varying. The results imply that COVID-19 shock is short-lived, the negative impact of the Pandemic is corrected in the long run. Stock market investors should thus focus on the long-run behaviour of stock returns. The results evidence the significance of diversification in different stock market sectors for investors

Analyse et prospective de la réponse de politique en RD Congo face à l’incertitude de la Covid-19

The Covid-19 shock has maken the uncertainty more acute. That uncertainty has seriously dysfunctioning the Congolese economy and influenced the implementation of the monetary policy. Using the “Minnesota Prior Bayesian VAR model”, we are estimating the Covid-19 uncertainty shock on the economy and monetary policy response. The effect of Covid-19 uncertainty strikes unprecedented aggregate demand and the economy. In addition, it undermines the action of monetary policy to soften this fall in aggregate demand and curb inflation impacted by pass-through effect. However, the shock of monetary policy via an appropriate control of monetary base seems comfortable to mitigate this crisis. We suggest a consistency of the policy mix and the careful development of unconventional monetary policy framework to hope for a recovery and to ensure confidence.

Market reaction to macroeconomic anouncements: green vs conventional bonds

ABSTRACT There has been an increased interest in literature to examine the risk and returns between green and conventional bonds during the last decade. However, the existing literature is silent regarding investigating green bonds and their reactions to regional and global shocks. We attempt to close this gap by gathering green and conventional bonds data issued by the same firms. Using data from 262 firms that issue both sets of bonds and trade in the same market, we are able to control/eliminate for firm-specific factors that can impact the bond spreads. Upon introducing US and EU macroeconomic announcements and economic uncertainty, we find that the green bonds are more resilient from specific shocks, when compared to conventional bonds. We further expand our study to systematically assess the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on both bonds. Our comprehensive findings suggest an increase in green bonds’ uptake post-Covid-19 pandemic, and its significant evolvement compared to pre-Covid-19 proves green bonds popularity. Our result shows greater resilience of green bonds from specific Covid-19 shocks and uncertainties.

Clinical Impact of COVID-19 on Multi-Drug-Resistant Gram-Negative Bacilli Bloodstream Infections in an Intensive Care Unit Setting: Two Pandemics Compared.

Two mutually related pandemics are ongoing worldwide: the COVID-19 and antimicrobial resistance pandemics. This study aims to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 on multi-drug-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (MDR-GN) bloodstream infections (BSIs) in a single intensive care unit (ICU). We conducted a retrospective study including patients admitted to the ICU, reorganized for COVID-19 patients’ healthcare, with at least one confirmed MDR-GN BSI during 2019–2020. We compared clinical and microbiological features, incidence density, antibiotic therapy and mortality rate in pre- and during-COVID-19 pandemic periods. We estimated the impact of COVID-19 on mortality by means of univariate Cox regression analyses. A total of 46 patients were included in the study (28 non-COVID-19/18 COVID-19). Overall, 63 BSI episodes occurred (44/19), and non-COVID-19 patients had a higher incidence of MDR-GN BSIs and were more likely to present K. pneumoniae BSIs, while the COVID-19 group showed more A. baumannii BSIs with higher per pathogen incidence. COVID-19 patients presented more critical conditions at the BSI onset, a shorter hospitalization time from BSI to death and higher 30-day mortality rate from BSI onset. COVID-19 and septic shock were associated with 30-day mortality from MDR-GN BSIs, while early active therapy was a protective factor. In conclusion, COVID-19 showed a negative impact on patients with MDR-GN BSIs admitted to the ICU.

Opportunities and Barriersto E-CommerceAdoption forWomen in Bangladesh:

This study investigates the Bangladeshi women’s opportunities when operating e-commerce from a COVID-19 shock viewpoint. There was a time when women's work was not given priority. Women were considered to be less educated, get married early and handle all the work in the husband's family throughout their life. All those women had a hard life. Women were deprived of education, science, research, business and technology. But now, times have changed a lot. Women are fighting for equal rights. Proper use of technology at home can make them financially sustainable. The role of e-commerce is immense in making women financially independent or self-reliant, especially during the outbreak of COVID-19. And by doing this e-commerce business, even a woman from house to house has become successful. Women can't go out whenever they want; they have to take care of the housework. But e-commerce has also made it easier for women to do business. Today, women are able to do business even after taking care of the family. However,women have to think about skills and practices, knowledge of technology, training, market demand, and their own interests. The government of the People's Republic of Bangladesh may find the policy recommendation helpful in overcoming challenges and boosting the e-commerce industry's profitability.

Opportunities and Barriersto E-CommerceAdoption forWomen in Bangladesh:

This study investigates the Bangladeshi women’s opportunities when operating e-commerce from a COVID-19 shock viewpoint. There was a time when women's work was not given priority. Women were considered to be less educated, get married early and handle all the work in the husband's family throughout their life. All those women had a hard life. Women were deprived of education, science, research, business and technology. But now, times have changed a lot. Women are fighting for equal rights. Proper use of technology at home can make them financially sustainable. The role of e-commerce is immense in making women financially independent or self-reliant, especially during the outbreak of COVID-19. And by doing this e-commerce business, even a woman from house to house has become successful. Women can't go out whenever they want; they have to take care of the housework. But e-commerce has also made it easier for women to do business. Today, women are able to do business even after taking care of the family. However,women have to think about skills and practices, knowledge of technology, training, market demand, and their own interests. The government of the People's Republic of Bangladesh may find the policy recommendation helpful in overcoming challenges and boosting the e-commerce industry's profitability.