Lethality Of COVID-19 Research Articles

COVID-19 vaccination and lethality reduction: a prospective observational study in Venezuela during the last two waves

BackgroundIn Venezuela, the predominant vaccines administered are BBIBP-CorV and Gam-COVID-Vac. Despite robust evidence from randomized clinical trials validating the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines in mitigating hospitalization and mortality, there is still a lack of post-authorization safety studies conducted within this demographic population.MethodsA prospective observational study from October 5, 2021 to March 31, 2022 encompassed COVID-19 vaccinated and unvaccinated patients from four sentinel hospitals in Venezuela. Patient lethality was predicted using Charlson Comorbidity index. Clinical outcomes were assessed through WHO’s COVID-19 Clinical Progression Scale.ResultsOut of the 175 patients assessed, 85 (48.6%) were vaccinated. The median Charlson Comorbidity index was 3 points, with no statistically significant differences observed between the groups (p = 0.2). A total of 50 (28.6%) patients died during the study period, with higher proportion of deaths in unvaccinated patients (35.6% vs. 21.2%, p = 0.035). Advanced age (OR = 1.043, 95% CI = 1.015–1.071, p = 0.002) was associated with increased death risk, whereas vaccination against COVID-19 (OR = 0.428, 95% CI = 0.185–0.99, p = 0.047), high oxygen saturation (OR = 0.964, 95% CI = 0.934–0.995, p = 0.024), and enoxaparin administration (OR = 0.292, 95% CI = 0.093–0.917, p = 0.035) were associated with decreased death risk.ConclusionDuring the third and fourth waves of the pandemic, COVID-19 vaccination was associated with a 57% reduction in lethality among patients in four public hospitals in Venezuela.

Variables Associated With In-Hospital Lethality in COVID-19: A Prospective Cohort Study From Colombia.

The emergence of COVID-19 represents the most significant health crisis in recent history. Incidence and mortality rates depend on several factors. Many studies have focused on investigating which characteristics could be strongly related to higher mortality and lethality. This study aims to analyze the variables associated with in-hospital mortality among patients admitted in a reference northeastern region of a Colombian institution. An ambidirectional cohort, single-center studywas carried out in a reference hospital in northeastern Colombia. All patients admitted to the Fundación Oftalmológica de Santander (FOSCAL) between March 2020 and September 2021, with COVID-19 real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) positive test, were included. A total of 3,028 patients were included, of whom 2,034 (67.8%) survived and 994 (32.8%) died during their hospital stay; 48.8% (1,479) of the patients were female.The most common comorbidities were hypertension (1,236 patients, 40.8%), obesity (body mass index (BMI) ≥ 30; 656 patients, 21.6%), and diabetes (618 patients, 20.4%).The average age of the surviving patients was 52.2 years, while for the deceased patients, it was 70.3 years. The variables that showed significant association with in-hospital mortality were as follows: male sex ≥ 45 years, dyspnea, oxygen saturation (SatO2) < 85%, hypertension, chronic kidney disease (CKD), and a Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) score of >1. Male sex, age ≥ 45 years, dyspnea, SatO2 < 85%, hypertension, CKD, and a CCI score of >1 were associated with a higher risk of in-hospital mortality in COVID-19-infected patients.

Incidence of Severe COVID-19 Outcomes and Immunization Rates in Apulian Individuals with Inflammatory Bowel Disease: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

The etiology of Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) is not fully understood but is believed to involve a dysregulated immune response to intestinal microbiota in genetically susceptible individuals. Individuals with IBD are at increased risk of infections due to immunosuppressive treatments, comorbidities, and advanced age. Current evidence indicates that IBD patients are not at higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection compared to the general population, though the risk of severe outcomes remains debated. A retrospective observational study was conducted using Apulian regional health data from 2020 to 2022. This study included 1029 IBD patients and 3075 controls, matched by age and sex. COVID-19 incidence, hospitalization, and case fatality rates were analyzed alongside vaccination coverage. No significant differences in COVID-19 incidence (IRR = 0.97), hospitalization (p = 0.218), or lethality (p = 0.271) were evidenced between IBD patients and the general population. Vaccination rates were high in both groups, with slightly higher uptake in IBD patients. Multivariate analysis identified age and male sex as risk factors for severe COVID-19 outcomes, while vaccination significantly reduced hospitalization and lethality risks. IBD patients in Apulia do not have an increased risk of COVID-19 infection or severe outcomes compared to the general population. Vaccination is crucial in protecting IBD patients, and ongoing efforts to promote vaccination within this population are essential. Future research should focus on the impact of specific IBD treatments on COVID-19 outcomes and the long-term effectiveness of vaccines.

Long COVID: plasma levels of neurofilament light chain in mild COVID-19 patients with neurocognitive symptoms

It is well known the potential of severe acute respiratory coronavirus type 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection to induce post-acute sequelae, a condition called Long COVID. This syndrome includes several symptoms, but the central nervous system (CNS) main one is neurocognitive dysfunction. Recently it has been demonstrated the relevance of plasma levels of neurofilament light chain (pNfL), as a biomarker of early involvement of the CNS in COVID-19. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between pNfL in patients with post-acute neurocognitive symptoms and the potential of NfL as a prognostic biomarker in these cases. A group of 63 long COVID patients ranging from 18 to 59 years-old were evaluated, submitted to a neurocognitive battery assessment, and subdivided in different groups, according to results. Plasma samples were collected during the long COVID assessment and used for measurement of pNfL with the Single molecule array (SIMOA) assays. Levels of pNfL were significantly higher in long COVID patients with neurocognitive symptoms when compared to HC (p = 0.0031). Long COVID patients with cognitive impairment and fatigue symptoms presented higher pNfL levels when compared to long COVID patients without these symptoms, individually and combined (p = 0.0263, p = 0.0480, and 0.0142, respectively). Correlation analysis showed that levels of cognitive lost and exacerbation of fatigue in the neurocognitive evaluation had a significative correlation with higher pNfL levels (p = 0.0219 and 0.0255, respectively). Previous reports suggested that pNfL levels are related with higher risk of severity and predict lethality of COVID-19. Our findings demonstrate that SARS-CoV-2 infection seems to have a long-term impact on the brain, even in patients who presented mild acute disease. NfL measurements might be useful to identify CNS involvement in long COVID associated with neurocognitive symptoms and to identify who will need continuous monitoring and treatment support.

Identification of FasL as a crucial host factor driving COVID-19 pathology and lethality

The dysregulated immune response and inflammation resulting in severe COVID-19 are still incompletely understood. Having recently determined that aberrant death-ligand-induced cell death can cause lethal inflammation, we hypothesized that this process might also cause or contribute to inflammatory disease and lung failure following SARS-CoV-2 infection. To test this hypothesis, we developed a novel mouse-adapted SARS-CoV-2 model (MA20) that recapitulates key pathological features of COVID-19. Concomitantly with occurrence of cell death and inflammation, FasL expression was significantly increased on inflammatory monocytic macrophages and NK cells in the lungs of MA20-infected mice. Importantly, therapeutic FasL inhibition markedly increased survival of both, young and old MA20-infected mice coincident with substantially reduced cell death and inflammation in their lungs. Intriguingly, FasL was also increased in the bronchoalveolar lavage fluid of critically-ill COVID-19 patients. Together, these results identify FasL as a crucial host factor driving the immuno-pathology that underlies COVID-19 severity and lethality, and imply that patients with severe COVID-19 may significantly benefit from therapeutic inhibition of FasL.

The influence of underlying conditions of countries on the COVID-19 lethality rate

The management of the COVID-19 pandemic not only depends on the stringency measures established by governments but also and more importantly on the underlying capacity of territories in economic and health and sanitary infrastructure. This study aims to identify how the underlying conditions of countries influence on their level of COVID-19 lethality rate. To do so, a classification of countries is first conducted by the means of the k-means partitioning method, using COVID-19-related variables such as the lethality rate, the contagion growth rate and the number of days with respect to China. Based on the resulting groups of countries of the first stage, Tobit and Ordinary Least Squares regressions are estimated to determine the effect of the underlying characteristics of countries on their COVID-19 lethality rate. Risks factors which increase the lethality rate in countries are the contagion growth rate, the trade flow with China, the age composition of the population and, to a lesser extent, the population density. Factors that help to reduce the lethality rate are the government effectiveness, the health infrastructure (hospital beds) and, to a lesser extent, the economic growth rate.

Clonal chromosomal mosaicism and loss of chromosome Y in elderly men increase vulnerability for SARS-CoV-2.

The pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19) had an estimated overall case fatality ratio of 1.38% (pre-vaccination), being 53% higher in males and increasing exponentially with age. Among 9578 individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 in the SCOURGE study, we found 133 cases (1.42%) with detectable clonal mosaicism for chromosome alterations (mCA) and 226 males (5.08%) with acquired loss of chromosome Y (LOY). Individuals with clonal mosaic events (mCA and/or LOY) showed a 54% increase in the risk of COVID-19 lethality. LOY is associated with transcriptomic biomarkers of immune dysfunction, pro-coagulation activity and cardiovascular risk. Interferon-induced genes involved in the initial immune response to SARS-CoV-2 are also down-regulated in LOY. Thus, mCA and LOY underlie at least part of the sex-biased severity and mortality of COVID-19 in aging patients. Given its potential therapeutic and prognostic relevance, evaluation of clonal mosaicism should be implemented as biomarker of COVID-19 severity in elderly people.

Baicalein exerts beneficial effects in lipopolysaccharide-induced pulmonary inflammation by modulating macrophage polarization and inhibiting pyroptosis.

The disruption of the immune system by viral attack is a major influencing factor in the lethality of COVID-19. Baicalein is one of the key effective compounds against COVID-19. The molecular mechanisms regarding the anti-inflammatory properties of Baicalein are still unclear. In this study, we established LPS-induced mice to elucidate the role of Baicalein in the treatment of acute lung injury (ALI) and its potential molecular mechanisms. In vivo experiments showed that Baicalein could significantly ameliorate LPS-induced acute lung injury and reduce proteinous edema in lung tissue. In addition, Baicalein inhibited M1 macrophage polarization, promote M2 macrophage polarization, and regulate inflammatory responses. Furthermore, Baicalein could inhibit the expression of protein molecules associated with pyroptosis and mitigate the lung tissue injury. In summary, we revealed the therapeutic effects of Baicalein in acute lung injury, providing the theoretical basis for its clinical application.

Differences in lethality and diffusion of Covid-19 and different kinds of vaccines: Correspondence.

Differences in lethality and diffusion of Covid-19 and different kinds of vaccines: Correspondence.

Pandemic impact on aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage in Peru’s high COVID-19 lethality setting: A public institutional experience

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 profoundly impacted healthcare worldwide, and Peru was particularly affected, experiencing the highest COVID-19 case fatality rate globally. Methods: We conducted a retrospective comparative study of patients presenting with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) at a public Peruvian national referral center specializing in cerebrovascular diseases. Two study periods were considered, one during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and a second identical period in 2019. Variables included patient demographics, comorbidities, COVID-19 infection status, clinical presentation, treatment approaches, and hospital outcomes. Results: We analyzed 114 patients with aneurysmal SAH, 65 (57.0%) treated in 2019 and 49 (43.0%) in 2020. The mean time from emergency admission to the day of definitive treatment during 2019 and 2020 was 2.72 and 1.93 days, respectively. Likewise, the mean time from symptom onset to the date of definitive treatment was 6.71 and 7.70 days, respectively. We identified significant associations between complications such as sepsis, respiratory failure, acute kidney failure, and hospital mortality. The proportion of fatalities was significantly higher in 2020 compared to 2019 (36.7% vs. 15.4%, respectively). Interestingly, there was no statistically significant association between COVID-19 infection status and mortality during the 2020 period. Conclusion: Patients with aneurysmal SAH treated during the pandemic had a higher proportion of sepsis, respiratory failure, acute kidney failure, and mortality compared to the pre-pandemic period. Reallocating healthcare resources to prioritize COVID-19 patients may have inadvertently neglected or delayed care for patients with other emergency conditions, such as aneurysmal SAH. This highlights the importance of maintaining adequate care for non-infectious emergencies during a pandemic.

COVID-19 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: a perspective on epidemiological events

Introduction: the progression of SARS-CoV-2 highlighted the Americas region for the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths. In Brazil, the Southeast region was one of the most affected, especially the state of Rio de Janeiro, due to its cosmopolitan characteristics. Objective: to analyze temporal variations in the incidence, mortality and lethality of COVID-19 in the state of Rio de Janeiro from January 2020 to December 2022. Methods: ecological time-series study with publicly available data on COVID-19 cases and deaths. Crude incidence, mortality, and fatality rates, and estimates of percent daily change (DPC) were analyzed using Prais-Winsten linear regression. With calculation of crude rates were performed using Microsoft Excel 2019, and DPC estimates were performed using STATA MP 17.0 software. Results: 2.5 million cases and 76 thousand COVID-19 deaths were confirmed in the state of Rio de Janeiro from 2020 to 2022, with lethality declining from 4.89% to 0.60%. The highest lethality occurred in May 2020 (11.59%), October 2021 (9.13%) and March 2022 (6.78%), showing a stationary trend. In 2020, incidence and mortality rates peaked in December (797.76 per 100,000 inhabitants) and May (43.96 per 100,000 inhabitants), respectively, followed by subsequent declines. Incidence trend was increasing in 2020 and stationary in 2022, while mortality decreased in 2021 and 2022 after stability in 2020. Conclusion: The incidence of COVID-19 peaked in 2020 and subsequently declined, suggesting partial transmission control. Mortality stabilized after 2020, indicating evolution in health care. Lethality showed a stationary trend, indicating an improvement in hospital capacity. The divergent behavior of the epidemiological indicators reflected the complex dynamics of the pandemic in the analyzed state. There were 790 thousand deaths from COVID-19 in the State of Rio de Janeiro in the period from 2020 to 2022.

High Levels of NfL, GFAP, TAU, and UCH-L1 as Potential Predictor Biomarkers of Severity and Lethality in Acute COVID-19.

Few studies showed that neurofilament light chain (NfL), glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP), total tubulin-associated unit (TAU), and ubiquitin carboxy-terminal hydrolase-L1 (UCH-L1) may be related to neurological manifestations and severity during and after SARS-CoV-2 infection. The objective of this work was to investigate the relationship among nervous system biomarkers (NfL, TAU, GFAP, and UCH-L1), biochemical parameters, and viral loads with heterogeneous outcomes in a cohort of severe COVID-19 patients admitted in Intensive Care Unit (ICU) of a university hospital. For that, 108 subjects were recruited within the first 5days at ICU. In parallel, 16 mild COVID-19 patients were enrolled. Severe COVID-19 group was divided between "deceased" and "survivor." All subjects were positive for SARS-CoV-2 detection. NfL, total TAU, GFAP, and UCH-L1 quantification in plasma was performed using SIMOA SR-X platform. Of 108 severe patients, 36 (33.33%) presented neurological manifestation and 41 (37.96%) died. All four biomarkers - GFAP, NfL, TAU, and UCH-L1 - were significantly higher among deceased patients in comparison to survivors (p < 0.05). Analyzing biochemical biomarkers, higher Peak Serum Ferritin, D-Dimer Peak, Gamma-glutamyltransferase, and C-Reactive Protein levels were related to death (p < 0.0001). In multivariate analysis, GFAP, NfL, TAU, UCH-L1, and Peak Serum Ferritin levels were correlated to death. Regarding SARS-CoV-2 viral load, no statistical difference was observed for any group. Thus, Ferritin, NFL, GFAP, TAU, and UCH-L1 are early biomarkers of severity and lethality of SARS-COV-2 infection and may be important tools for therapeutic decision-making in the acute phase of disease.

An assessment of the health belief model (HBM) properties as predictors of COVID-19 preventive behaviour

Abstract Background Public participation in preventive efforts is crucial in preventing infection and reducing mortality attributed to infectious diseases. The health belief model (HBM) suggests that individuals will likely participate in these efforts when experiencing a personal threat or risk, but only if the benefits of acting outweigh the risk or perceived barriers. Methods The current study explores the properties of the HBM as predictors of the public’s compliance with COVID-19 preventive behaviour. Quantitative data on HBM properties, COVID-19 preventive behaviour, socioeconomic (SES) and demographic characteristics were collected from a sample of 674 adults in Hamburg, Germany. Binary logistic regression was computed to examine the effect of the properties of HBM on COVID-19 vaccination. Multiple linear regression was calculated to investigate the impacts of HBM properties on the likelihood of participants’ face mask usage as a protective measure against COVID-19 infection. Results The logistic regression model was statistically significant, X2(13) = 149.096, p &lt; .001. The specificity and sensitivity for the model is 58.1% and 99.4%, respectively. Similarly, the multiple regression model results showed a good fit for the data. F (13, 650) = 17.093, p &lt; .001, and adjusted R2= .240, suggesting that HBM properties predict face mask usage. Conclusion This study’s findings provide robust evidence to recommend that the concerned public health professionals consider individuals’ health beliefs when designing an effective COVID-19 preventive programme. Public health messaging should consider highlighting the benefits of preventive actions and the potential lethality of COVID-19 to evoke an individual’s appropriate concern.

COVID-19 is more lethal in hemodialysis chronic kidney disease patients with low physical capacity.

The mortality rate in patients on maintenance hemodialysis (HD) is high and is associated with low functional capacity (FC). We analyzed the association of FC and COVID-19 lethality among HD patients. A cohort study that included evaluations of FC in patients on HD was underway, and the association between FC and lethality was included as an ad-hoc outcome. One hundred and twelve patients were submitted to a physical, 31 patients contracted symptomatic COVID-19, 20 recovered and 11 died (lethality rate of 35.5%). There was a difference between survivors and non-survivors on six-minutes-walking-test (6MWT) 386.1 ± 112.8 versus 296.9 ± 103.3 meters (p = 0.04), 30 s sit-to-stand test (30CST) score 11.7 ± 3.1 versus 7.7 ± 4.1 (p = 0.006), and timed up and go test (TUG) 9.4 versus 13.6 s (p = 0.009). There was also an association between percentages of predicted 6MWT, 30CST, and TUG with COVID-19 lethality. Patients on maintenance HD with poorer physical performance presented the worst prognosis from COVID-19 pandemic.

Risk Factors Associated with COVID-19 Lethality: A Machine Learning Approach Using Mexico Database.

Identifying risk factors associated with COVID-19 lethality is crucial in combating the ongoing pandemic. In this study, we developed lethality predictive models for each epidemiological wave and for the overall dataset using the Extreme Gradient Boosting technique and analyzed them using Shapley values to determine the contribution levels of various features, including demographics, comorbidities, medical units, and recent medical information from confirmed COVID-19 cases in Mexico between February 23, 2020, and April 15, 2022. The results showed that pneumonia and advanced age were the most important factors predicting patient death in all cohorts. Additionally, the medical unit where the patient received care acted as a risk or protective factor. IMSS medical units were identified as high-risk factors in all cohorts, except in wave four, while SSA medical units generally were moderate protective factors. We also found that intubation was a high-risk factor in the first epidemiological wave and a moderate-risk factor in the following waves. Female gender was a protective factor of moderate-high importance in all cohorts, while being between 18 and 29 years old was a moderate protective factor and being between 50 and 59 years old was a moderate risk factor. Additionally, diabetes (all cohorts), obesity (third wave), and hypertension (fourth wave) were identified as moderate risk factors. Finally, residing in municipalities with the lowest Human Development Index level represented a moderate risk factor. In conclusion, this study identified several significant risk factors associated with COVID-19 lethality in Mexico, which could aid policymakers in developing targeted interventions to reduce mortality rates.

Country's value priorities in health crisis: How dominant societal motivations shape COVID-19 severity

This paper presents two comprehensive studies examining how Schwartz's human values dimensions at the country level predict COVID-19 pandemic severity. Study 1 aggregated survey data across 89 countries from the European Social Survey and World Values Survey to assess societal-level conservation versus openness to change (CON-OTC) and self-enhancement versus self-transcendence (SE-ST) value-continuums. Study 2 developed an innovative archival measurement approach using 10 indicators to estimate these value dimensions for over 180 countries. Both studies employed multilevel modeling to test the relationships between country-level values and COVID-19 severity, measured through epidemiological indicators of transmission speed, case fatality rate, infection prevalence and mortality burden. Results revealed that the CON-OTC and SE-ST value-continuums showed consistent, significant negative associations with transmission speed and infection prevalence before adjusting for modernization, latitude, historical pathogen prevalence and government stringency across both studies. However, after accounting for these socioecological and policy covariates, the CON-OTC value-continuum positively predicted case fatality rate in both studies, implying conservation values could increase COVID-19 lethality. In contrast, across both studies, the SE-ST value-continuum negatively predicted case fatality rate after adjusting for the covariates, suggesting countries prioritizing self-enhancement values exhibited relatively lower pandemic severity and lethality when accounting for developmental, ecological, and policy factors. Accordingly, the studies advance theoretical understanding of how country's value priorities shape COVID-19 impact. Methodologically, these studies contribute through multilevel techniques that account for spatial dependencies, as well as an innovative ecological measurement. Overall, this research demonstrates the value of applying Schwartz's framework at a societal level to predict global health crises and pandemics.

COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations, and mortality in Navarre (Spain) between February 2020 and September 2022

Between February 2020 and September 2022, SARS-CoV-2 has circulated uninterruptedly throughout Spain. This study analyses COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations, and deaths in Navarre. Enhanced epidemiological surveillance and results of seroepidemiological surveys were used to analyze COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations, and deaths, based on the vaccination coverage and other preventive measures applied from February 2020 to September 2022. A total of 295,424 COVID-19 cases were confirmed (45% of the population in Navarre); 8,594 required hospital admission (1.3%), 832 were admitted to intensive care units (1.3‰) and 1,725 died (2.6‰). Over the first wave of the pandemic, there were 1,934 hospitalizations and 529 deaths from confirmed COVID-19 cases over a few weeks; these figures dropped rapidly following lockdown. Until October 2021, SARS-CoV-2 circulation was modulated by non-pharmacological preventive measures. The subsequent relaxation of these measures led to a wide circulation of the omicron variant, increasing the number of cases by three-fold. The high vaccination coverage against COVID-19 introduced decisive changes in the epidemiology of the disease, reducing to less than 2%, 0.1%, and 0.5% the cases requiring hospitalization, intensive care unit admission, or that died, respectively. Initial lockdown and non-pharmacological preventive measures helped control SARS-CoV-2 transmission until vaccination was extended. Vaccination achieved a decisive reduction of the COVID-19 severity and lethality.

Understanding the Elevated Lethality of COVID-19 in Liver Transplant Recipients: Does Immunosuppression Management Matter? Results from a Brazilian Multicentric Historical Cohort

Infections by SARS-CoV-2 in liver transplant recipients (LT) patients are of particular concern, notably due to perceived added risks related to immunosuppression and comorbidity burden. Current literature on this topic often relies on small, non-standardized, and geographically limited studies. This manuscript describes COVID-19 presentations and causes for elevated mortality in a large cohort of LT recipients. This study was designed as a multicentric historical cohort, including LT recipient patients with COVID-19 in 25 study centers, with the primary endpoint being COVID-related death. We also collected demographic, clinical, and laboratory data regarding presentation and disease progression. Two hundred and thirty-four cases were included. The study population was predominantly male and White and had a median age of 60 years. The median time from transplantation was 2.6 years (IQR 1-6). Most patients had at least one comorbidity (189, 80.8%). Patient age (P=.04), dyspnea (P < .001), intensive care unit admission (P < .001), and mechanical ventilation (P < .001) were associated with increased mortality. Modifications of immunosuppressive therapy (P < .001), specifically the suspension of tacrolimus, maintained significance in multivariable analysis. Attention to risk factors and the individualization of patient care, especially regarding immunosuppression management, is crucial for delivering more precise interventions to these individuals.

COVID-19 Lethality: Insights from Case Fatality Rate

COVID-19 Lethality: Insights from Case Fatality Rate

Are the Italian government's quarantine measures about the Covid-19 lethality effective? A mathematical statistical analysis

Abstract In this paper, the authors present a particular Weighted Least Squares model, the Heteroskedasticity Corrected Linear Model (HCLM), to estimate the impact of the quarantine measures adopted by the Italian government since March 4th 2020 on the lethality rate of the Covid-19 virus. The results obtained suggest that overall these restrictive measures have proven effective, leading to a 3,59% reduction in the lethality rate within 27 days. Furthermore, the authors have decomposed the historical series of the Lethality Rate by identifying, in addition to a first component of easily observable trend, also a second component of noise that is distributed as a white noise. The model shown by the authors, which is absolutely innovative, can also be used to study historical series data relating to any epidemic, be it of bacterial or viral origin. JEL classification numbers: C01, C02, C13, C22, C60. Keywords: Covid-19, Lethality rate, Mathematical and statistical models for epidemiology, Time Series Analysis, Health Policy