Protected Area Coverage Research Articles

Improved indicators for the integrated assessment of coastal sustainable development based on Earth Observation Data

ABSTRACT Target 14 of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 14) depicts a better future regarding the capacity of coastal environments to cope with several developmental challenges. However, gaps in the data and indicators restrict the effective implementation of this global plan. In this context, under the umbrella of the Digital Belt and Road (DBAR) Program, the DBAR_COAST working group (WG) aims to solve the problems of coastal sustainable development along the Maritime Silk Road (MSR). This paper demonstrates the recent efforts of the DBAR_COAST WG to develop indicators based on Earth observation (EO) data (i.e. the natural coastal protection index (NCPI), the local proportion of habitats protected index (LPHPI), and the coastal eco-erosion index (CEEI)), which complement the existing indicators related to SDGs 14.2, 14.5 and 14.7. These indicators all satisfy indicative, robust, scientifically sound and accessible data principles. Based on them, both the coastal protection (NCPI = 0.97) and protected area coverage (LPHPI = 0.38) in the MSR still had much room for improvement in 2020, and pressure from aquaculture expansion (CEEI = 0.11) showed significant regionally spatial heterogeneity. These indicators serve to provide a guideline for indicator-based assessment in monitoring the progress toward achieving SDG 14.

The contribution of private land conservation to 30x30 in Germany

In line with Target 3 of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, the European Union (EU) aims to protect 30% of its land and sea by 2030 (known as 30x30). Germany has been a vocal supporter of this goal in the international arena but has yet to achieve sufficient protected area coverage domestically. We estimate that Germany needs to report an additional 4.65 million hectares of protected land to achieve 30x30. This article examines the potential of privately protected areas (PPAs) and other effective area-based conservation measures (OECMs) to contribute to this goal. We explore the German Federal Nature Conservation Act and identify the legal hurdles for the designation and recognition of PPAs. Furthermore, we argue that OECMs have the potential to contribute significantly to 30x30 in Germany. We estimate that close to one million hectares of land could be classified as OECMs and outline potentially qualifying sites. In conclusion, we discuss the prerequisites for upscaling private land conservation in Germany, focusing on required conditions for establishing OECMs and incentivising conservation easements and long-term conservation leases through national funding programmes.

Risk from future climate change to Pakistan's protected area network: A composite analysis for hotspot identification

As climate change becomes a primary driver of global ecosystem deterioration and biodiversity loss, protected areas (PAs) are posed to play a crucial conservation role. At a global scale, 17 % of land is currently covered by PAs; a figure expected to reach 30 % by 2030 under the UN post-2020 global biodiversity framework. However, focusing only on the percent coverage of PAs without assessing their efficacy may not accomplish the intended conservation goals. Here, we present the first assessment of the risk from climate change to existing PAs and non-protected lands across Pakistan by combining data on the local exposure and vulnerability of 409 species of birds, mammals, reptiles and amphibians to multidimensional changes in climate by mid (2040–2060) and late (2061–2080) century under two climate emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We find that between 7 % (2050 RCP4.5) and 19 % (2080 RCP8.5) of the current network of PAs, mostly located in the eastern and southeastern parts of the country, are projected to be under future extreme risk (i.e., highly exposed areas containing highly vulnerable communities). Importantly, hotspots of risk within these PAs are projected to significantly expand over time and with increasing severity of the scenario. In contrast, PAs in the northern part of the country are projected to remain under moderate to low risk. Results are subject to variability across the country reflecting interesting differences in climate change exposure and species vulnerability between protected and non-protected lands. Importantly, significantly lower level of risks from future climate change are projected for PAs than non-protected lands across emission scenarios and periods suggesting potential candidate areas for the future expansion of the country's PA network. Our analysis provides novel insights that can help inform conservation decisions and management at a time when the country is investing in ambitious efforts to expand its network of protected areas.

Bridging the gap: A new species of arboreal Abronia (Squamata: Anguidae) from the Northern Highlands of Chiapas, Mexico.

The mountain forests of Middle America are renowned for their endemic biodiversity, and arboreal alligator lizards (genus Abronia) are high-profile vertebrates endemic to this region. In this work, we describe a new species of arboreal Abronia that is known only from the type locality in the Northern Highlands of Chiapas, Mexico. The new species is diagnosed from all other members of the genus Abronia by the following combination of characters: lack of protuberant or spine-like supra-auricular scales, lack of protuberant or casque-like posterolateral head scales, dorsum of head pale yellow with distinct dark markings, 35-39 transverse dorsal scale rows, lateralmost row of ventral scales enlarged relative to adjacent medial row, and dorsum brown with darker crossbands that are sometimes reduced to rows of spots. We provisionally include the new species in the subgenus Lissabronia based on genomic and morphological evidence, but our results also suggest a close relationship to the subgenus Abaculabronia. The new species is geographically separated from the nearest Lissabronia and Abaculabronia species by the lowland Central Depression of Chiapas. Ongoing habitat loss and other factors imperil the new species, leading us to propose its listing under multiple threatened species frameworks. Because the Northern Highlands have poor coverage of protected areas, we briefly comment on the potential of this new species for stimulating conservation in the region.

Population decline of the Black-bellied Sandgrouse Pterocles orientalis in continental Spain, a main western Palearctic stronghold

Summary Many European farmland bird populations are rapidly declining because of agricultural intensification and land-use changes. Robust estimates of population sizes and trends, habitat use, and protected area coverage within the distribution range are crucial to inform the conservation and management of threatened species. Here we report on the results of the 2019 Black-bellied Sandgrouse Pterocles orientalis (BBS) survey promoted and coordinated by SEO/BirdLife to update its breeding distribution, population size, and trends in continental Spain. A total of 660 grid cells, 10 × 10 km, Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM), were surveyed (81% of the distribution area), with 2,257 visits to 1,750 walked transects (7,001 km in total; 10.6 km per UTM). BBS was detected in 43% of sampled UTMs. At transect level, occupancy was 11% higher inside protected areas. At UTM level, occupancy was estimated at 0.58 (Bayesian credible interval [BCI] 95%: 0.55–0.61), revealing that BBS occupied about half of its previous breeding range (2003–2005). Using hierarchical distance sampling modelling, we estimated an average density of 1.33 individuals/km2 in occupied areas, and a population of 4,025 individuals (confidence interval: 1,840–7,609) within sampled areas, with an additional 697 individuals (confidence interval 461–1,075) in areas that were not surveyed. Further, the relative abundance of BBS (Kilometric Abundance Index) declined by 63% between 2005 and 2019 (annual decline rate of 4.5%). BBS used agricultural habitats (73%) and unprotected areas (54%) despite a higher occupancy within protected areas. Given the recent decline rate and persistent threats, the BBS conservation status should be upgraded to “Endangered” in peninsular Spain. Its future depends on land-use changes and agricultural practices, in particular the maintenance of fallows, semi-natural habitats, and pastures for extensive grazing. Better protection of important areas and targeted conservation initiatives should be promoted to halt and reverse the population decline in this key western Palearctic stronghold.

Assessing the Vulnerability of Endemic Colombian Amphibian Species to Climate Change in an Isolated Montane Ecosystem

Background and Research Aims Climate change, habitat loss, and fragmentation are the major threats to biodiversity. Montane amphibians are particularly sensitive to these threats. We address the vulnerability of the amphibian community in Colombia using a Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment (CCVA) and prioritize amphibian species at risk of extinction and in need of conservation actions. Methods We completed two independent spatial analyses to assess species vulnerability in the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta (SNSM), Colombia. First, we calculated the Area of Habitat and the percent of the Area of Habitat under protected area coverage for 19 species. We then examined the breadth of climatic space occupied by 16 species and how this space is predicted to shift under climate scenarios (RCP scenarios 4.5 and 8.5) for 12 General Circulation Models for 2050. We combined these two analyses with trait data related to adaptive capacity, obtained from previous research, to create a combined (correlative-trait) CCVA. Results Our analysis reveals a large reduction in available climatic space under both RCP scenarios by 2050. Our CCVA identified eight high priority species, including three Atelopus species and five within the Serranobatrachus/Tachiramantis complex, with extreme reductions in available climate space under RCP 8.5. The SNSM endemic and range restricted species are at elevated risk of extinction under climate change scenarios, with many moving into a high-risk category of extinction under the RCP 8.5. Given its isolation, the endemic species of the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta (SNSM) are threatened by changing climates. Implications for Conservation The information provided in this manuscript used a vulnerability assessment to develop regional strategies for climate change adaptation and conservation. When possible, climate vulnerability must be incorporated into future adaptation and priority planning for the conservation of endemic, threatened montane amphibians, preferably via local management plans.

Protected areas slow declines unevenly across the tetrapod tree of life.

Protected areas (PAs) are the primary strategy for slowing terrestrial biodiversity loss. Although expansion of PA coverage is prioritized under the Convention on Biological Diversity, it remains unknown whether PAs mitigate declines across the tetrapod tree of life and to what extent land cover and climate change modify PA effectiveness1,2. Here we analysed rates of change in abundance of 2,239 terrestrial vertebrate populations across the globe. On average, vertebrate populations declined five times more slowly within PAs (-0.4% per year) than at similar sites lacking protection (-1.8% per year). The mitigating effects of PAs varied both within and across vertebrate classes, with amphibians and birds experiencing the greatest benefits. The benefits of PAs were lower for amphibians in areas with converted land cover and lower for reptiles in areas with rapid climate warming. By contrast, the mitigating impacts of PAs were consistently augmented by effective national governance. This study provides evidence for the effectiveness of PAs as a strategy for slowing tetrapod declines. However, optimizing the growing PA network requires targeted protection of sensitive clades and mitigation of threats beyond PA boundaries. Provided the conditions of targeted protection, adequate governance and well-managed landscapes are met, PAs can serve a critical role in safeguarding tetrapod biodiversity.

Extreme events delay the detection of marine protected area effects: Implications for monitoring and management

The establishment of protected natural areas worldwide has surged in the last decade, with more protected area coverage expected in the future. In the case of marine protected areas (MPAs) that prohibit fishing, there are ongoing efforts to evaluate their effectiveness in conserving fish populations. Accurate assessments of MPA effects (namely, their ability to increase fish biomass within their boundaries) are crucial to support these evaluations. However, marine ecosystems are increasingly affected by extreme events including marine heatwaves, hypoxia, storms, and epizootic outbreaks. These events can disrupt population increases within MPAs, leading to delays in expected conservation outcomes and the misperception that protection may not be effective. However, it is currently unclear to what extent disturbances could bias MPA assessments and for how long. To address this gap, we used a population model based on a common nearshore fishery species from the USA west coast (blue rockfish, Sebastes mystinus) to evaluate the detectability of MPA effects when an acute disturbance occurs within the first decade of protection. We found that detecting MPA effects with high confidence can be delayed up to 10 years following an extreme disturbance. Furthermore, the before-after sampling design (as opposed to an inside-outside or before-after-control-impact, or BACI design) is most biased by a widespread disturbance event, especially with long (>5 years) and severe disturbances (>30 % population reduction). These findings indicate that extreme events can profoundly impact MPA assessments, causing delays in recovery and detectability. Our results provide a benchmark to calibrate monitoring and management evaluations accordingly.

African Forest elephants persist in Guinea-Bissau but require an emergency conservation plan

AbstractThe status of the forest elephant Loxodonta cyclotis in Guinea-Bissau has been in doubt since the last assessment in 2006. In 2020–2022 we carried out field surveys to update the species' status. We found elephant signs within an area of c. 1,000 km2. Microsatellite genotyping of faeces identified four males. Females could not be individually identified but their presence was confirmed by molecular sex determination. Camera trapping (2,075 camera-trap days) recorded 824 photos in 24 independent sequences, involving three males and two presumed females. The continued presence of elephants in Guinea-Bissau raises hope for the species in the region, but urgent efforts are needed to refine population range and size estimates, increase protected area coverage, and reduce ongoing and impending habitat loss. An emergency conservation action plan is a priority.

Landscape-scale benefits of protected areas for tropical biodiversity.

The United Nations recently agreed to major expansions of global protected areas (PAs) to slow biodiversity declines1. However, although reserves often reduce habitat loss, their efficacy at preserving animal diversity and their influence on biodiversity in surrounding unprotected areas remain unclear2-5. Unregulated hunting can empty PAs of large animals6, illegal tree felling can degrade habitat quality7, and parks can simply displace disturbances such as logging and hunting to unprotected areas of the landscape8 (a phenomenon called leakage). Alternatively, well-functioning PAs could enhance animal diversity within reserves as well as in nearby unprotected sites9 (an effect called spillover). Here we test whether PAs across mega-diverse Southeast Asia contribute to vertebrate conservation inside and outside their boundaries. Reserves increased all facets of bird diversity. Large reserves were also associated with substantially enhanced mammal diversity in the adjacent unprotected landscape. Rather than PAs generating leakage that deteriorated ecological conditions elsewhere, our results are consistent with PAs inducing spillover that benefits biodiversity in surrounding areas. These findings support the United Nations goal of achieving 30% PA coverage by 2030 by demonstrating that PAs are associated with higher vertebrate diversity both inside their boundaries and in the broader landscape.

Protected area coverage of vulnerable regions to conserve functional diversity of birds.

Global-change drivers are increasing the rates of species extinction worldwide, posing a serious threat to ecosystem functioning. Preserving the functional diversity of species is currently a priority to mitigate abrupt biodiversity loss in the coming decades. Therefore, understanding what factors better predict functional diversity loss in bird assemblages at a global scale and how existing protected areas cover the most vulnerable regions is of key importance for conservation. We examined the environmental factors associated with the risk of functional diversity loss under 3 scenarios of bird species extinction based on species distribution range size, generation length, and International Union for the Conservation of Nature conservation status. Then, we identified regions that deserve special conservation focus. We also assessed how efficiently extant terrestrial protected areas preserve particularly vulnerable bird assemblages based on predicted scenarios of extinction risk. The vulnerability of bird functional diversity increased as net primary productivity, land-use diversity, mean annual temperature, and elevation decreased. Low values for these environmental factors were associated with a higher risk of functional diversity loss worldwide through two mechanisms: one independent of species richness that affects assemblages with low levels of niche packing and high functional dissimilarity among species, andthe other that affects assemblages with low species richness and high rates of extinction. Existing protected areas ineffectively safeguarded regions with a high risk of losing functional diversity in the next decades. The global predictors and the underlying mechanisms of functional vulnerability in bird assemblages we identified can inform strategies aimed at preserving bird-driven ecological functions worldwide.

Vegetações amazônicas e terras indígenas ameaçadas pelas próximas mudanças climáticas: Previsão de impacto nos biomas brasileiros

AbstractChanges in vegetation cover due to increasing frequencies of extreme climate events and anthropogenic pressure are already underway; so, predicting the impacts of the near‐future climate will be essential for developing mitigation strategies. We modelled the responses of Brazilian biomes to a future scenario (2070) of steady increases in atmospheric CO levels, adding soil data to better represent the multidimensional space of the environmental suitability of each biome. We also assessed the effects of changes in environmental suitability on the Brazilian network of protected areas and projected those effects on 1 km resolution maps. The area predicted to be affected by future climate change in Brazil and the consequent loss of suitable habitat surface is 2.59 Mkm2 – larger than the combined areas of Central America and Mexico – leading the current vegetation to a progressive replacement. We project major changes in the vegetation of the Amazon basin, with the replacement of rainforest by dryer vegetation in the southern and eastern regions of that basin, and the opening of a dry corridor in Pará State. We also project an expansion of 41% of the current caatinga cover in the Brazilian semiarid region, with large losses of suitable habitat surface of the current deciduous forest. Approximately, 37% of the coverage of protected areas in Brazil will be affected – with greater damage to indigenous lands. The speed of current environmental change is now unprecedented for the post‐glacial era, and will almost certainly lead to increased rates of extinction and the collapse of transition ecosystems. We propose the urgent creation of protected areas in regions designed without significant impacts, but contiguous to those that will be more seriously affected by climate change. Those areas will act as refugia preserving biodiversity, ecosystem services, and the cultural heritages of traditional populations.

Amazonian vegetation types and indigenous lands threatened by upcoming climate change: Forecast impact for Brazilian biomes

AbstractChanges in vegetation cover due to increasing frequencies of extreme climate events and anthropogenic pressure are already underway; so, predicting the impacts of the near‐future climate will be essential for developing mitigation strategies. We modelled the responses of Brazilian biomes to a future scenario (2070) of steady increases in atmospheric CO2 levels, adding soil data to better represent the multidimensional space of the environmental suitability of each biome. We also assessed the effects of changes in environmental suitability on the Brazilian network of protected areas and projected those effects on 1 km resolution maps. The area predicted to be affected by future climate change in Brazil and the consequent loss of suitable habitat surface is 2.59 Mkm2 – larger than the combined areas of Central America and Mexico – leading the current vegetation to a progressive replacement. We project major changes in the vegetation of the Amazon basin, with the replacement of rainforest by dryer vegetation in the southern and eastern regions of that basin, and the opening of a dry corridor in Pará State. We also project an expansion of 41% of the current caatinga cover in the Brazilian semiarid region, with large losses of suitable habitat surface of the current deciduous forest. Approximately, 37% of the coverage of protected areas in Brazil will be affected – with greater damage to indigenous lands. The speed of current environmental change is now unprecedented for the post‐glacial era, and will almost certainly lead to increased rates of extinction and the collapse of transition ecosystems. We propose the urgent creation of protected areas in regions designed without significant impacts, but contiguous to those that will be more seriously affected by climate change. Those areas will act as refugia preserving biodiversity, ecosystem services, and the cultural heritages of traditional populations.

Protected area coverage has a positive effect on koala occurrence in Eastern Australia

Protected areas (PAs) are crucial conservation tools implemented worldwide to conserve biodiversity. Although PAs can positively impact wildlife populations, their ecological outcomes vary substantially depending on PA management and governance. Recent calls have highlighted the need to better assess the role of area-based conservation in preventing biodiversity loss. This is crucial to improve PA effectiveness in order to meet global biodiversity goals. Here we take advantage of a unique dataset composed of 2230 surveys conducted with koala detection dogs across Eastern Australia, to assess how protection status affected the occurrence of a threatened specialist folivore. We assessed if coverage of protected forest influenced koala presence or absence at two spatial scales (1 and 3 km), for (i) strictly and (ii) all protected areas. We also investigated if PA effects were explained by differences in habitat composition (percentage of secondary forest) between protected and unprotected areas. Taking confounding factors into account, we showed that forest protection (all IUCN categories) had a significant positive effect on koala occurrence, which increased by ~ 10% along the forest protection gradient. Contrarily, koala occurrence was not affected by strictly protected areas. In addition, adding the percentage of secondary forests in our models did not modify the statistical effect of PAs on koala occurrence, suggesting that forest composition is not the driver of the observed difference along the protection gradient. Our results contribute to a broader understanding of the effects of PAs on a threatened marsupial and call for further attention to assessments of PA effectiveness in Eastern Australia, a global biodiversity hotspot.

Spatial patterns, underlying drivers and conservation priorities of orchids in the central Himalaya

Understanding the primary drivers of species diversity patterns and identifying critical places for biodiversity protection are the two major concerns confronting the global conservation community. The Orchidaceae, which is one of the most diverse angiosperm families with over 30,000 species, is currently facing grave threats from habitat degradation, climate change, and a range of human-induced issues. However, the spatial patterns of orchid distribution and the factors influencing these patterns, both of which are crucial for developing successful orchid conservation plans, remain poorly understood. Here, using one of the most extensive distribution datasets of >500 orchid species in Nepal, we mapped the distribution of all, common, rare, epiphyte, and terrestrial species and identified important factors driving their patterns. We also assessed their protection gaps and identified key conservation regions. We discovered low spatial congruence between the diversity patterns of different groups, and the fundamental drivers underlying the richness pattern differed considerably. The key orchid conservation areas were primarily found in the mid-hills and highlands of central Nepal, with 62 % of these areas outside the protected area (PA) network. Our findings emphasize the importance of considering pollinator diversity and other climate factors when developing effective management plans to conserve orchids, as well as employing different strategies to conserve different life forms. A huge conservation gap in protecting orchids despite large PA coverage in Nepal indicates insufficiency of existing PA network in conserving plants. Therefore, our findings reiterates the need to consider plant conservation goals alongside animal conservation priorities in future conservation planning.

Anthropogenic vulnerability assessment of global terrestrial protected areas with a new framework

Protected areas (PAs) are the major conservation tool for ecosystem conservation, but function unequally in mitigating human pressures in practice. Assessing PA vulnerability caused by human pressures and its association with socioeconomic and PA characteristic factors is vital for improving conservation effectiveness and the post-2020 PA expansion. Here, using a new framework integrating the intensity and temporal changes of human pressures in PAs and their matched unprotected areas, we categorize global terrestrial PAs into four anthropogenic vulnerability levels: high (11.7 %), moderate (18.6 %) and low (21.9 %) vulnerability and wilderness (47.8 %). We find significant variations in the anthropogenic vulnerability of PAs between countries, continents, and IUCN categories. Europe has the highest proportion of high-vulnerability PAs (ca. 19.7 % of protected areas in Europe), while South America and Oceania have the highest proportions of low-vulnerability PAs and wilderness PAs, respectively (33.2 % and 75.0 % respectively). The vulnerability of PAs is not significantly associated with socioeconomic factors at the country level, which might reflect the trade-offs between positive and negative outcomes of development. With a new framework that integrated four significant factors for anthropogenic vulnerability assessment, this study demonstrates that global PAs have different anthropogenic vulnerability levels and suggest that some PAs function effectively in mitigating human pressures despite currently intense human pressures within them. Our results also suggest that future evaluations on the conservation status should pay attention not only to PA coverage but also to the anthropogenic vulnerability levels within PAs to achieve higher conservation effectiveness.

Modeling global habitat suitability and environmental predictor of distribution of a Near Threatened avian scavenger at a high spatial resolution

Vultures are among the most vulnerable birds in the world. The bearded vulture (Gypaetus barbatus) is among the threatened species of vultures and listed as Near Threatened. The species is widely distributed across the Palearctic, Afrotropical, and Indomalayan regions. The species faces several threats such as poisoning, direct persecution, habitat degradation, and collisions with powerlines and wind power farms. Thus, knowing the global habitat suitability of the species and environmental predictors of the species distribution can facilitate the species conservation. In this study, we applied a maximum entropy approach, 10,585 distribution records, and 10 environmental variables to model the bearded vulture's global habitat suitability at high spatial resolution [30-arc-second (1 km)]. We also estimated protected area coverage for the species' suitable habitats. We identified 8,117,231 km2 of suitable habitat for the species across its global range in Europe, Asia, and Africa. The results showed that topographic diversity is the most important predictor of the species distribution across its distribution range. Results of estimating the area of suitable habitats of the bearded vulture within protected areas revealed that only 16.26% of the species' suitable habitats are protected. The areas that were identified to have the highest suitability for the species have high priority for the conservation of this iconic species thus these areas should be included in the network of protected areas.

Priority conservation areas and a global population estimate for the critically endangered Philippine Eagle

AbstractMany range‐restricted taxa are experiencing population declines, yet we lack fundamental information regarding their distribution and population size. Establishing baseline estimates for both of these key biological parameters is however critical for directing conservation planning for at‐risk range‐restricted species. The International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List uses three range metrics that define species distributions and inform extinction risk assessments: extent of occurrence (EOO), area of occupancy (AOO) and area of habitat (AOH). However, calculating all three metrics using standard IUCN approaches relies on a geographically representative sample of locations, which for rare species is often spatially biased. Here, we apply model‐based interpolation using Species Distribution Models (SDMs), correlating occurrences with remote‐sensing covariates, to calculate IUCN range metrics, protected area coverage and a global population estimate for the Critically Endangered Philippine Eagle (Pithecophaga jefferyi). Our final range wide continuous SDM had high predictive accuracy (continuous Boyce Index = 0.934) and when converted to a binary model estimated an AOH as 28 624 km2, a maximum EOO as 617 957 km2, and a minimum EOO as 275 459 km2, with an AOO as 53 867 km2. Based on inferred habitat from the AOH metric, we estimate a global population of 392 breeding pairs (range: 318–447 pairs), or 784 mature individuals, across the Philippine Eagle global range. Protected areas covered 32% of AOH, 13% less than the target representation, with the continuous model identifying key habitat as priority conservation areas. We demonstrate that even when occurrences are geographically biased, robust habitat models can quantify baseline IUCN range metrics, protected area coverage and a population size estimate. In the absence of adequate location data for many rare and threatened taxa, our method is a promising spatial modelling tool with widespread applications, particularly for island endemics facing high extinction risk.

Socio-ecological gap analysis to forecast species range contractions for conservation

Conservation requires both a needs assessment and prioritization scheme for planning and implementation. Range maps are critical for understanding and conserving biodiversity, but current range maps often omit content, negating important metrics of variation in populations and places. Here, we integrate a myriad of conditions that are spatially explicit across distributions of carnivores to identify gaps in capacity necessary for their conservation. Expanding on traditional gap analyses that focus almost exclusively on quantifying discordance in protected area coverage across a species' range, our work aggregates threat layers (e.g., drought, human pressures) with resources layers (e.g., protected areas, cultural diversity) to identify gaps in available conservation capacity (ACC) across ranges for 91 African carnivores. Our model indicated that all species have some portion of their range at risk of contraction, with an average of 15 percentage range loss. We found that the ACC differed based on body size and taxonomy. Results deviated from current perceptions of extinction risks for species with an International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) threat status of Least Concern and yielded insights for species categorized as Data Deficient. Our socio-ecological gap analysis presents a geospatial approach to inform decision-making and resource allocation in conservation. Ultimately, our work advances forecasting dynamics of species' ranges that are increasingly vital in an era of great socio-ecological change to mitigate human-wildlife conflict and promote inclusive carnivore conservation across geographies.

Overview and potential implementation of a marine protected area network between Colombia, Nicaragua, and Jamaica

The United Nations recommends increasing protected area coverage to 30% by 2030 through representative and effective networks of marine protected areas (MPAn). According to the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), the number of MPAs increased rapidly from 0.67% in 2000–7.4% by the end of 2018. Yet only around 5.9% of the world’s coral reef area is included within MPAs and the implementation of MPA networks in areas beyond national jurisdiction remains limited. Here we report results on the evaluation of the ecological criteria suggested by the IUCN for the potential implementation of a MPAn between Nicaragua, Jamaica, and Colombia on the southwestern side of the Caribbean Sea. We have reviewed the different legislative structures for protection in place and the international and regional agreements endorsed by Colombia, Nicaragua, and Jamaica in force in 2020, together with biophysical connectivity studies in the Caribbean basin. Results indicate that the three countries: (i) have similar ecosystems open to protection, (ii) have already developed different governance instruments to protect them, (iii) there is a coherence between permitted and prohibited activities that provides strong governance related support for the potential MPA network for all zoning categories and iv) have the legislation and common ground to lead a successful implementation. The study concludes that the establishment of an MPA network in the southwestern part of the Caribbean will be advantageous for the protection of other marine ecosystems in the basin, addressing transboundary issues by focusing on connectivity and the already established MPA.