Coupled Atmosphere Ocean General Circulation Model Research Articles

The Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation Simulated in the NCEP Climate Forecast System: The Effect of Sea Surface Temperature

Abstract Observational evidence has indicated the important role of the interaction of the atmosphere with the sea surface in the development and maintenance of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation (ISO). However, improvements in ISO simulations with fully coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models are limited and model dependent. This study further examines the effect of air–sea coupling and the basic-state sea surface temperature (SST) associated with the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) in a 21-yr free run with the recently developed NCEP coupled Climate Forecast System (CFS) model. For this, the CFS run is compared with an Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project–type long-term simulation forced by prescribed SST in the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) model and flux-corrected version of CFS (referred to as CFSA). The GFS run simulates significantly unorganized BSISO convection anomalies, which exhibit an erroneous standing oscillation. The CFS run with interactive air–sea coupling has limited improvements, including the generation of intraseasonal SST variation preceding the convection anomaly by ∼10 days. However, this simulation still does not show the observed continuous northward propagation over the Indian Ocean due to a cold model bias. The CFSA run removes the cold bias in the Indian Ocean and the simulation of the development and propagation of BSISO anomalies are significantly improved. Enhanced and suppressed convection anomalies exhibit the observed quadrupole-like configuration, and phase relationships between precipitation and surface dynamic and thermodynamic variables for the northward propagation are shown to be coherent and consistent with the observations. It is shown that the surface meridional moisture convergence is an important factor for the northward propagation of the BSISO. On the other hand, both the GFS and CFS runs do not realistically simulate an eastward-propagating equatorial mode. The CFSA run produces a more realistic eastward-propagation mode only over the Indian Ocean and Java Sea due to the improved mean state in SST, low-level winds, and vertical wind shear. Reasons for the failure of farther eastward propagation into the west Pacific in CFSA are discussed. This study reconfirms the significance of air–sea interactions. More importantly, however, the results suggest that in order for the influence of the coupled air–sea interaction to be properly communicated, the mean state SST in the coupled model should be reasonably simulated. This is because the basic-state SST itself acts to sustain BSISO convection and it makes the large-scale dynamical environment (i.e., easterly vertical wind shear or low-level westerly zonal wind) more favorable for the propagation of the moist Rossby–Kelvin wave packet.

Impact of different convective cloud schemes on the simulation of the tropical seasonal cycle in a coupled ocean–atmosphere model

The simulation of the mean seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) remains a challenge for coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models (OAGCMs). Here we investigate how the numerical representation of clouds and convection affects the simulation of the seasonal variations of tropical SST. For this purpose, we compare simulations performed with two versions of the same OAGCM differing only by their convection and cloud schemes. Most of the atmospheric temperature and precipitation differences between the two simulations reflect differences found in atmosphere-alone simulations. They affect the ocean interior down to 1,000 m. Substantial differences are found between the two coupled simulations in the seasonal march of the Intertropical Convergence Zone in the eastern part of the Pacific and Atlantic basins, where the equatorial upwelling develops. The results confirm that the distribution of atmospheric convection between ocean and land during the American and African boreal summer monsoons plays a key role in maintaining a cross equatorial flow and a strong windstress along the equator, and thereby the equatorial upwelling. Feedbacks between convection, large-scale circulation, SST and clouds are highlighted from the differences between the two simulations. In one case, these feedbacks maintain the ITCZ in a quite realistic position, whereas in the other case the ITCZ is located too far south close to the equator.

Transient simulations, empirical reconstructions and forcing mechanisms for the Mid-holocene hydrological climate in southern Patagonia

This study investigates the atmospheric circulation in transient climate simulations with a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (GCM) for the mid-Holocene (MH) period 7–4.5 ka BP driven with combinations of orbital, solar and greenhouse gas forcings. The focus is on southern South America. Statistical downscaling models are derived from observational data and applied to the simulations to estimate precipitation in south-eastern Patagonia during the MH. These estimates are compared with lake level estimates for Laguna Potrok Aike (LPA) from sediments. Relative to pre-industrial conditions (i.e. 1550–1850), which show extraordinarily high lake levels, the proxy-based reconstructed lake levels during the MH are lower. The downscaled simulated circulation differences indicate higher LPA precipitation during the MH from March to August, higher annual means, and reduced precipitation from September to February. Thus the reconstructed lower LPA lake levels can not be explained solely by the simulated precipitation changes. Possible reasons for this discrepancy are discussed. Based on proxy data from southern South America hypotheses have also been proposed on the latitudinal position of the southern hemispheric westerlies (SHWs). In agreement with some of these hypotheses our simulations show an increased seasonal cycle of the latitudinal position of the SHWs during the MH, which can be explained by the orbital forcing. The simulations also show stronger SHWs over southern Patagonia during austral summer and weaker SHWs during winter. The downscaling model associates weaker SHWs with increased precipitation in the LPA region. However, this relationship is only moderate, and therefore the downscaling model does not support the assumption of a strong link between mean SHWs and precipitation over south-eastern Patagonia, which is the basis of many proxy-based hypotheses about the SHWs.

Seasonal and Long-Term Atmospheric Responses to Reemerging North Pacific Ocean Variability: A Combined Dynamical and Statistical Assessment*

Abstract The atmospheric response to a North Pacific subsurface oceanic temperature anomaly is studied in a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model using a combined dynamical and statistical approach, with the focus on the evolution at seasonal and longer time scales. The atmospheric response is first assessed dynamically with an ensemble coupled experiment. The atmospheric response is found to exhibit a distinct seasonal evolution and a significant long-term response. The oceanic temperature anomaly reemerges each winter to force the atmosphere through an upward heat flux, forcing a clear seasonal atmospheric response locally over the Aleutian low and downstream over the North America/North Atlantic Ocean and the Arctic regions. The atmospheric response is dominated by the early winter response with a warm SST-equivalent barotropic ridge and a wave train downstream. Starting in later winter, the atmospheric response weakens significantly and remains weak throughout the summer. The seasonal response of the atmosphere is then assessed statistically from the control simulation. It is found that the major features of the seasonal response, especially the strong warm SST–ridge response in early winter, are crudely consistent between the dynamical and statistical assessments. The statistical assessment is finally applied to the observation, which also suggests a strong seasonal atmospheric response locally over the North Pacific dominated by a warm SST–ridge response in early winter. One important conclusion is that the atmospheric response becomes more significant at annual and longer time scales, with the signal/noise ratio increasing up to 4 times from the monthly to the 4-yr mean response. This increased signal/noise ratio is caused by a much faster reduction of the atmospheric internal variability toward longer time scales than that of the response signal. The slow decrease of the response signal is due to the long persistence associated with the subsurface ocean. This suggests that the subsurface extratropical oceanic variability could have a much stronger impact on the extratropical atmosphere (and climate variability) at interannual–interdecadal time scales than at monthly–seasonal time scales.

Extratropical Influences on the El Niño–Southern Oscillation through the Late Quaternary

Abstract A sequence of numerical simulations with a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model configured for particular times during the late Quaternary shows that simulated El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events decrease in frequency from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to today, in accord with linear stability theory, but increase in amplitude. Diagnostic analyses indicate that altered momentum fluxes from midlatitude eddy activity caused by changes in orbital forcing (in the Holocene) and topographic forcing (at the LGM) regulate the strength of climatological easterlies and therefore affect both the tropical mean state and the characteristics of interannual variability. The fact that climatic teleconnections associated with paleo-ENSO are fundamentally different during these times suggests a way in which to reconcile some of the existing discrepancies amongst interpretations of proxy records and numerical paleoclimate simulations.

Evolution of model systematic errors in the Tropical Atlantic Basin from coupled climate hindcasts

Significant systematic errors in the tropical Atlantic Ocean are common in state-of-the-art coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models. In this study, a set of ensemble hindcasts from the NCEP coupled forecast system (CFS) is used to examine the initial growth of the coupled model bias. These CFS hindcasts are 9-month integrations starting from perturbed real-time oceanic and atmospheric analyses for 1981–2003. The large number of integrations from a variety of initial states covering all months provides a good opportunity to examine how the model systematic errors grow. The monthly climatologies of ensemble hindcasts from various initial months are compared with both observed and analyzed oceanic and atmospheric datasets. Our analyses show that two error patterns are dominant in the hindcasts. One is the warming of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the southeastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. This error grows faster in boreal summer and fall and peaks in November–December at round 2°C in the open ocean. It is caused by an excessive model surface shortwave radiative flux in this region, especially from boreal summer to fall. The excessive radiative forcing is in turn caused by the CFS inability to reproduce the observed amount of low cloud cover in the southeastern ocean and its seasonal increase. According to a comparison between the seasonal climatologies from the CFS hindcasts and a long-term simulation of the atmospheric model forced with observed SST, the CFS low cloud and radiation errors are inherent to its atmospheric component. On the other hand, the SST error in CFS is a major cause of the model’s southward bias of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in boreal winter and spring. An analysis of the SST errors of the 6-month ensemble hindcasts by seven coupled models in the Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction project shows that this SST error pattern is common in coupled climate hindcasts. The second error pattern is an excessive deepening of the model thermocline depth to the north of the equator from the western coast toward the central ocean. This error grows fastest in boreal summer. It is forced by an overly strong local anticyclonic surface wind stress curl and is in turn related to the weakened northeast trade winds in summer and fall. The thermocline error in the northwest delays the annual shoaling of the equatorial thermocline in the Gulf of Guinea remotely through the equatorial waveguide.

Regional Dynamic and Steric Sea Level Change in Response to the IPCC-A1B Scenario

AbstractThis paper analyzes regional sea level changes in a climate change simulation using the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI) coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. The climate change scenario builds on observed atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations from 1860 to 2000, followed by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B climate change scenario until 2100; from 2100 to 2199, GHG concentrations are fixed at the 2100 level. As compared with the unperturbed control climate, global sea level rises 0.26 m by 2100, and 0.56 m by 2199 through steric expansion; eustatic changes are not included in this simulation. The model’s sea level evolves substantially differently among ocean basins. Sea level rise is strongest in the Arctic Ocean, from enhanced freshwater input from precipitation and continental runoff, and weakest in the Southern Ocean, because of compensation of steric changes through dynamic sea surface height (SSH) adjustments. In the North Atlantic Ocean (NA), a complex tripole SSH pattern across the subtropical to subpolar gyre front evolves, which is consistent with a northward shift of the NA current. On interannual to decadal time scales, the SSH difference between Bermuda and the Labrador Sea correlates highly with the combined baroclinic gyre transport in the NA but only weakly with the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) and, thus, does not allow for estimates of the MOC on these time scales. Bottom pressure increases over shelf areas by up to 0.45 m (water column equivalent) and decreases over the Atlantic section in the Southern Ocean by up to 0.20 m. The separate evaluation of thermosteric and halosteric sea level changes shows that thermosteric anomalies are positive over most of the World Ocean. Because of increased atmospheric moisture transport from low to high latitudes, halosteric anomalies are negative in the subtropical NA and partly compensate thermosteric anomalies, but are positive in the Arctic Ocean and add to thermosteric anomalies. The vertical distribution of thermosteric and halosteric anomalies is highly nonuniform among ocean basins, reaching deeper than 3000 m in the Southern Ocean, down to 2200 m in the North Atlantic, and only to depths of 500 m in the Pacific Ocean by the end of the twenty-first century.

Different transient climate responses of two versions of an atmosphere‐ocean coupled general circulation model

The Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), an atmosphere‐ocean coupled general circulation model (AOGCM), has two versions with different resolutions, high (Hi‐Res) and medium (Mid‐Res). While their equilibrium climate sensitivities (ECS) to CO2 increases are similar, the transient climate response (TCR) of the Hi‐Res version is larger than that of the Mid‐Res version. The former shows the highest transient response among the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fourth assessment report (AR4) climate models. Our climate feedback analysis indicates that the higher TCR of the Hi‐Res version mainly comes from its larger ice‐albedo feedback (SFC‐SW) and lower ocean heat uptake (OHU). Since the Hi‐Res version shows better agreement with observation than the Mid‐Res version concerning the factors that affect the SFC‐SW and OHU, the TCR of the Hi‐Res version is not considered to be unrealistic compared to that of the Mid‐Res version. On the other hand, the two versions have similar SFC‐SW values and negligible OHU in ECS experiments performed by the atmosphere‐slab ocean coupled general circulation model (ASGCM). In the ASGCM, the difference in SFC‐SW between the two versions was likely suppressed due to artificial fluxes applied to the ocean and sea‐ice system.

A Decomposition of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning

Abstract A decomposition of meridional overturning circulation (MOC) cells into geostrophic vertical shears, Ekman, and bottom pressure–dependent (or external mode) circulation components is presented. The decomposition requires the following information: 1) a density profile wherever bathymetry changes to construct the vertical shears component, 2) the zonal-mean zonal wind stress for the Ekman component, and 3) the mean depth-independent velocity information over each isobath to construct the external mode. The decomposition is applied to the third-generation Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere General Circulation Model (HadCM3) to determine the meridional variability of these individual components within the Atlantic Ocean. The external mode component is shown to be extremely important where western boundary currents impinge on topography, and also in the area of the overflows. The Sverdrup balance explains the shape of the external mode MOC component to first order, but the time variability of the external mode exhibits only a very weak dependence on the wind stress curl. Thus, the Sverdrup balance cannot be used to determine the external mode changes when examining temporal change in the MOC. The vertical shears component allows the time-mean and the time-variable upper North Atlantic MOC cell to be deduced at 25°S and 50°N. A stronger dependency on the external mode and Ekman components between 8° and 35°N and in the regions of the overflows means that hydrographic sections need to be supplemented by bottom pressure and wind stress information at these latitudes. At the decadal time scale, variability in Ekman transport is less important than that in geostrophic shears. In the Southern Hemisphere the vertical shears component is dominant at all time scales, suggesting that hydrographic sections alone may be suitable for deducing change in the MOC at these latitudes.

Influence of the Multidecadal Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Variability on European Climate

Abstract The influence of the natural multidecadal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) on European climate is investigated using a simulation with the coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model ECHAM5/Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPI-OM). The results show that Atlantic MOC fluctuations, which go along with changes in the northward heat transport, in turn affect European climate. Additionally, ensemble predictability experiments with ECHAM5/MPI-OM show that the probability density functions of surface air temperatures in the North Atlantic/European region are affected by the multidecadal variability of the large-scale oceanic circulation. Thus, some useful decadal predictability may exist in the Atlantic/European sector.

Climate Forcings and Climate Sensitivities Diagnosed from Coupled Climate Model Integrations

Abstract A simple technique is proposed for calculating global mean climate forcing from transient integrations of coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). This “climate forcing” differs from the conventionally defined radiative forcing as it includes semidirect effects that account for certain short time scale responses in the troposphere. First, a climate feedback term is calculated from reported values of 2 × CO2 radiative forcing and surface temperature time series from 70-yr simulations by 20 AOGCMs. In these simulations carbon dioxide is increased by 1% yr−1. The derived climate feedback agrees well with values that are diagnosed from equilibrium climate change experiments of slab-ocean versions of the same models. These climate feedback terms are associated with the fast, quasi-linear response of lapse rate, clouds, water vapor, and albedo to global surface temperature changes. The importance of the feedbacks is gauged by their impact on the radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere. Partial compensation is found between longwave and shortwave feedback terms that lessens the intermodel differences in the equilibrium climate sensitivity. There is also some indication that the AOGCMs overestimate the strength of the positive longwave feedback. These feedback terms are then used to infer the shortwave and longwave time series of climate forcing in twentieth- and twenty-first-century simulations in the AOGCMs. The technique is validated using conventionally calculated forcing time series from four AOGCMs. In these AOGCMs the shortwave and longwave climate forcings that are diagnosed agree with the conventional forcing time series within ∼10%. The shortwave forcing time series exhibit order of magnitude variations between the AOGCMs, differences likely related to how both natural forcings and/or anthropogenic aerosol effects are included. There are also factor of 2 differences in the longwave climate forcing time series, which may indicate problems with the modeling of well-mixed greenhouse gas changes. The simple diagnoses presented provides an important and useful first step for understanding differences in AOGCM integrations, indicating that some of the differences in model projections can be attributed to different prescribed climate forcing, even for so-called standard climate change scenarios.

Diagnosing the Annual Cycle Modes in the Tropical Atlantic Ocean Using a Directly Coupled Atmosphere–Ocean GCM

Abstract The annual cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Atlantic of a directly coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (CGCM) is decomposed into the parts forced by different surface fluxes (denoted as modes) for the two extreme months of March and August using forced ocean experiments. Almost all previous diagnostic work of the forcing of the SST annual cycle in the Atlantic has concentrated on the near-equatorial region. Here, the annual cycle is examined within the latitude range of 25°S–25°N to facilitate comparison with the interannual variability. The structure of the response to the different surface flux forcings bears some resemblance to the interannual SST modes in the tropical Atlantic, which are diagnosed using rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) analysis. Diagnosis of the forcing of the annual cycle modes and the interannual modes shows that they do not always have a common cause. Hence, the simple interpretation that the leading interannual modes are perturbations to the annual cycle is not always valid. In particular, the equatorial SST annual cycle mode is primarily driven by variations in vertical velocity while the equatorial interannual mode is associated with eastward-propagating thermocline anomalies and is forced by both thermocline anomalies and vertical velocity anomalies. As for the interannual modes, there exist off-equatorial annual cycle modes in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. The annual cycle off-equatorial mode in both hemispheres is shown to be primarily driven by heat flux variations. The Southern Hemisphere interannual mode is primarily driven by heat flux variations while the Northern Hemisphere interannual mode shows a strong influence of thermocline depth anomalies. In addition, the Southern Hemisphere interannual mode is centered about 10° south of the annual cycle mode. An interannual mode that has maximum variability along the South American coast south of the equator is shown to be associated with thermocline depth anomalies. This interannual mode has no analog in the annual cycle modes. The coupled model simulation of the annual cycle is found to be fairly realistic so that the results presented here could have applicability to the observed Atlantic.

Impact of Climate Change on River Discharge Projected by Multimodel Ensemble

Abstract This study investigates the projections of river discharge for 24 major rivers in the world during the twenty-first century simulated by 19 coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B scenario. To reduce model bias and uncertainty, a weighted ensemble mean (WEM) is used for multimodel projections. Although it is difficult to reproduce the present river discharge in any single model, the WEM results produce more accurate reproduction for most rivers, except those affected by anthropogenic water usage. At the end of the twenty-first century, the annual mean precipitation, evaporation, and runoff increase in high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, southern to eastern Asia, and central Africa. In contrast, they decrease in the Mediterranean region, southern Africa, southern North America, and Central America. Although the geographical distribution of the changes in precipitation and runoff tends to coincide with that in the river discharge, it should be emphasized that the change in runoff at the upstream region affects the river flow in the downstream region. In high-latitude rivers (Amur, Lena, MacKenzie, Ob, Yenisei, and Yukon), the discharge increases, and the peak timing shifts earlier because of an earlier snowmelt caused by global warming. Discharge tends to decrease for the rivers in Europe to the Mediterranean region (Danube, Euphrates, and Rhine), and southern United Sates (Rio Grande).

Properties of El Niño–Southern Oscillation in Different Equilibrium Climates with HadCM3

Abstract The ENSO variability in three long, stable, steady-state integrations of the Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3) is analyzed, relevant to climatic conditions of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), of the preindustrial period [control (CTL)], and of a greenhouse stabilization scenario (GHS) at 4 times the preindustrial CO2 concentration. It is found that progressively from LGM to CTL and GHS, the SST variability pattern associated with ENSO is centered farther west, and the oscillation acquires a shorter dominant period. While there are no large changes in total SST variability, very strong events become less frequent, and El Niño events develop over a narrower period within the seasonal cycle. The westward ENSO pattern shift is concurrent with a similar shift in the climatological wind stress distribution and with increased convective activity over the west equatorial Pacific. The wind response to anomalous SSTs follows this shift and increases in strength. The thermocline feedback becomes stronger in the 4 × CO2 integration, but the largest SST anomalies are associated with surface processes. The role of surface flux damping for the decay of anomalous SSTs is reduced in LGM and increased in GHS. From the analysis, the principal changes in mean climate that appear to affect the evolution of ENSO-related SST anomalies in HadCM3 are thus the changes in zonal wind stress over the equator, the depth of the equatorial thermocline, and the sensitivity of atmospheric convection to equatorial SST anomalies.

Global Climate and Ocean Circulation on an Aquaplanet Ocean–Atmosphere General Circulation Model

Abstract A low-resolution coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model (OAGCM) is used to study the characteristics of the large-scale ocean circulation and its climatic impacts in a series of global coupled aquaplanet experiments. Three configurations, designed to produce fundamentally different ocean circulation regimes, are considered. The first has no obstruction to zonal flow, the second contains a low barrier that blocks zonal flow in the ocean at all latitudes, creating a single enclosed basin, while the third contains a gap in the barrier to allow circumglobal flow at high southern latitudes. Warm greenhouse climates with a global average air surface temperature of around 27°C result in all cases. Equator-to-pole temperature gradients are shallower than that of a current climate simulation. While changes in the land configuration cause regional changes in temperature, winds, and rainfall, heat transports within the system are little affected. Inhibition of all ocean transport on the aquaplanet leads to a reduction in global mean surface temperature of 8°C, along with a sharpening of the meridional temperature gradient. This results from a reduction in global atmospheric water vapor content and an increase in tropical albedo, both of which act to reduce global surface temperatures. Fitting a simple radiative model to the atmospheric characteristics of the OAGCM solutions suggests that a simpler atmosphere model, with radiative parameters chosen a priori based on the changing surface configuration, would have produced qualitatively different results. This implies that studies with reduced complexity atmospheres need to be guided by more complex OAGCM results on a case-by-case basis.

Simulated Global-Mean Sea Level Changes over the Last Half-Millennium

Abstract Simulations of the last 500 yr carried out using the Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3) with anthropogenic and natural (solar and volcanic) forcings have been analyzed. Global-mean surface temperature change during the twentieth century is well reproduced. Simulated contributions to global-mean sea level rise during recent decades due to thermal expansion (the largest term) and to mass loss from glaciers and ice caps agree within uncertainties with observational estimates of these terms, but their sum falls short of the observed rate of sea level rise. This discrepancy has been discussed by previous authors; a completely satisfactory explanation of twentieth-century sea level rise is lacking. The model suggests that the apparent onset of sea level rise and glacier retreat during the first part of the nineteenth century was due to natural forcing. The rate of sea level rise was larger during the twentieth century than during the previous centuries because of anthropogenic forcing, but decreasing natural forcing during the second half of the twentieth century tended to offset the anthropogenic acceleration in the rate. Volcanic eruptions cause rapid falls in sea level, followed by recovery over several decades. The model shows substantially less decadal variability in sea level and its thermal expansion component than twentieth-century observations indicate, either because it does not generate sufficient ocean internal variability, or because the observational analyses overestimate the variability.

Tropical Indian Ocean Variability in the IPCC Twentieth-Century Climate Simulations*

Abstract The twentieth-century simulations using by 17 coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models (CGCMs) submitted to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) are evaluated for their skill in reproducing the observed modes of Indian Ocean (IO) climate variability. Most models successfully capture the IO’s delayed, basinwide warming response a few months after El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) peaks in the Pacific. ENSO’s oceanic teleconnection into the IO, by coastal waves through the Indonesian archipelago, is poorly simulated in these models, with significant shifts in the turning latitude of radiating Rossby waves. In observations, ENSO forces, by the atmospheric bridge mechanism, strong ocean Rossby waves that induce anomalies of SST, atmospheric convection, and tropical cyclones in a thermocline dome over the southwestern tropical IO. While the southwestern IO thermocline dome is simulated in nearly all of the models, this ocean Rossby wave response to ENSO is present only in a few of the models examined, suggesting difficulties in simulating ENSO’s teleconnection in surface wind. A majority of the models display an equatorial zonal mode of the Bjerknes feedback with spatial structures and seasonality similar to the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) in observations. This success appears to be due to their skills in simulating the mean state of the equatorial IO. Corroborating the role of the Bjerknes feedback in the IOD, the thermocline depth, SST, precipitation, and zonal wind are mutually positively correlated in these models, as in observations. The IOD–ENSO correlation during boreal fall ranges from −0.43 to 0.74 in the different models, suggesting that ENSO is one, but not the only, trigger for the IOD.

ENSO Evolution and Teleconnections in IPCC’s Twentieth-Century Climate Simulations: Realistic Representation?

Abstract This study focuses on the assessment of the spatiotemporal structure of ENSO variability and its winter climate teleconnections to North America in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) simulations of twentieth-century climate. The 1950–99 period simulations of six IPCC models are analyzed in an effort to benchmark models in the simulation of this leading mode of interannual variability: the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Coupled Model version 2.1 (CM2.1), the coupled ocean–atmosphere model of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS-EH), the NCAR Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3), the NCAR Parallel Coupled Model (PCM), the Hadley Centre Coupled Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Model version 3 (HadCM3), and version 3.2 of the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate at high resolution [MIROC3.2 (hires)]. The standard deviation of monthly SST anomalies is maximum in the Niño-3 region in all six simulations, indicating progress in the modeling of ocean–atmosphere variability. The broad success in modeling ENSO’s SST footprint—quite realistic in CCSM3—is however tempered by the difficulties in modeling ENSO evolution: for example, the biennial oscillation in CCSM3 and the lack of regular warm-to-cold phase transition in the MIROC model. The spatiotemporal structure, including seasonal phase locking, is, on the whole, well modeled by HadCM3; but there is room for improvement, notably, in modeling the SST footprint in the western Pacific. ENSO precipitation anomalies over the tropical Pacific and links to North American winter precipitation are also realistic in the HadCM3 simulation and, to an extent, in PCM. Hydroclimate teleconnections that lean on a stationary component of the flow, such as surface air temperature links, are however not well modeled by HadCM3 since the midlatitude ridge in the ENSO response is incorrectly placed in the simulation; PCM fares better. The analysis reveals that climate models are improving but are still unable to simulate many features of ENSO variability and its circulation and hydroclimate teleconnections to North America. Predicting regional climate variability/change remains an onerous burden on models.

Regional Tropical Precipitation Change Mechanisms in ECHAM4/OPYC3 under Global Warming*

Abstract Mechanisms of global warming impacts on regional tropical precipitation are examined in a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (ECHAM4/OPYC3). The pattern of the regional tropical precipitation changes, once established, tends to persist, growing in magnitude as greenhouse gases increase. The sulfate aerosol induces regional tropical precipitation anomalies similar to the greenhouse gases but with opposite sign, thus reducing the early signal. Evidence for two main mechanisms, the upped-ante and the anomalous gross moist stability (M′) mechanisms (previously proposed in an intermediate complexity model), is found in this more comprehensive coupled general circulation model. Preferential moisture increase occurs in convection zones. The upped-ante mechanism signature of dry advection from nonconvective regions is found in tropical drought regions on the margins of convection zones. Here advection in both the atmospheric boundary layer and lower free troposphere are found to be important, with an additional contribution from horizontal temperature transport in some locations. The signature of the M′ mechanism—moisture convergence due to increased moisture in regions of large mean vertical motion—enhances precipitation within strong convective regions. Ocean dynamical feedbacks can be assessed by net surface flux, the main example being the El Niño–like shift of the equatorial Pacific convection zone. Cloud–radiative feedbacks are found to oppose precipitation anomalies over ocean regions.

Ocean Circulation and Tropical Variability in the Coupled Model ECHAM5/MPI-OM

AbstractThis paper describes the mean ocean circulation and the tropical variability simulated by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). Results are presented from a version of the coupled model that served as a prototype for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) simulations. The model does not require flux adjustment to maintain a stable climate. A control simulation with present-day greenhouse gases is analyzed, and the simulation of key oceanic features, such as sea surface temperatures (SSTs), large-scale circulation, meridional heat and freshwater transports, and sea ice are compared with observations.A parameterization that accounts for the effect of ocean currents on surface wind stress is implemented in the model. The largest impact of this parameterization is in the tropical Pacific, where the mean state is significantly improved: the strength of the trade winds and the associated equatorial upwelling weaken, and there is a reduction of the model’s equatorial cold SST bias by more than 1 K. Equatorial SST variability also becomes more realistic. The strength of the variability is reduced by about 30% in the eastern equatorial Pacific and the extension of SST variability into the warm pool is significantly reduced. The dominant El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) period shifts from 3 to 4 yr. Without the parameterization an unrealistically strong westward propagation of SST anomalies is simulated. The reasons for the changes in variability are linked to changes in both the mean state and to a reduction in atmospheric sensitivity to SST changes and oceanic sensitivity to wind anomalies.