County Populations Research Articles

An Analysis of the Otolaryngology Workforce in Pennsylvania.

This study aims to analyze the distribution of otolaryngologists between urban and rural counties in Pennsylvania. Retrospective database. American Academy of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery (AAO-HNS) database and Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) Database. The AAO-HNS database (Entnet.org) and the CMS Database were used to identify otolaryngologists, their primary location, and their state of training. The 2023 Rural-Urban Continuum Codes were used to classify metropolitan (codes 1-3) and nonmetropolitan counties (codes 4-9) and determine county populations. A total of 388 otolaryngologists were identified across 67 Pennsylvania counties (33 metropolitan, 34 nonmetropolitan), 80% of which were male. There were 354 otolaryngologists in metropolitan counties serving 11.2 million people, with an average of 2.4 otolaryngologists per 100,000 people (/100 k). The majority of otolaryngologists (n = 235, 60.6%) are located in counties designated by code 1. There were 34 otolaryngologists in nonmetropolitan counties serving 1.8 million people, with an average of 2.4 otolaryngologists/100 k. Montour County (code 6) is home to a large academic center and accounts for 14/34 otolaryngologists in the nonmetropolitan counties. With the exception of Montour County, the remaining nonmetropolitan counties averaged 1.0 otolaryngologist/100 k. Only 3 metropolitan counties did not have otolaryngologists compared to 19 nonmetropolitan counties without otolaryngologists. Most otolaryngologists received their residency training in Pennsylvania (n = 177). New York (n = 35) and Maryland (n = 24) were the second most common states for training. There is a lack of otolaryngologists in rural counties of Pennsylvania, except in counties home to large academic centers.

Counterurbanization in China? A case study of counties in Huang-Huai-Hai area from the perspective of urban-rural relations

For decades, China's urbanization has primarily involved trans-regional migration from inland areas to major city regions along the coast or within the interior. As urban-rural disparities diminish, China has transitioned to intra-regional urbanization. However, there remains a gap in understanding the effects of this transition of urban-rural relations within China. This study focuses on counties as the fundamental research unit, examining net migration of the Huang-Huai-Hai Area. The spatial differentiation and its influencing factors were analyzed using ArcGIS and linear regression techniques. The results indicated a shift in the net migration trend of counties' populations in the Huang-Huai-Hai Area around 2010. The phenomenon of “counterurbanization” after 2010 changed the underlying rationale for population net migration. Counties' net migration was affected by both their relationship with cities and internal county factors. The close connection with cities promoted population growth in the counties. In-situ urbanization was vital for county development. The industrial structural adjustments were pivotal in population retention. The healthcare and education resources affected the migration patterns. The “counterurbanization” in this area could create new urban-rural dynamics. The revitalization of county populations meant significant implications for rural revitalization. This study, which is one of the first studies ever of the phenomenon of counterurbanization in a developing country, can provide insights for the development of integrated urban-rural areas and rural revitalization efforts.

Spatial and temporal changes in population distribution and population projection at county level in China

Counties in China play a pivotal role in economic and social development, acting as essential leadership hubs for large and medium-sized cities, contributing to rural revitalization, and facilitating urban-rural integration. Using ArcGIS spatial analysis, this study examines the population distribution spatial and dispersion patterns in Chinese counties based on 40 years of data from the first to the seventh national population census. Results reveal noticeable growth trends and regional disparities in county populations, with an increase in large-population counties and a decrease in small-population ones. Recent population growth concentrates in urban agglomerations, metropolitan areas, and southeastern coastal regions, while reductions occur in the northeastern and Inner Mongolia border areas. Furthermore, the study identifies “high-high” agglomerations around provincial capitals and “low-low” agglomerations in economically underdeveloped western and northeastern border regions. China’s population distribution spatial agglomeration has been increasing, with acceleration toward specific areas. The first through seventh census show rapid growth at low density, followed by growth at medium density, stable growth, and eventually negative growth. This suggests a likely slowdown and potential reversal in China’s future population growth. Additionally, an Auto Regression Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model is employed to forecast China’s total population, projecting a decline to 1343.68 million by 2035. The emergence of “population loss counties” in contemporary China underscores the need for a rational understanding of their development status and trends to optimize population development strategies and promote economic and social progress.

Equity in wastewater monitoring: Differences in the demographics and social vulnerability of sewered and unsewered populations across North Carolina.

Wastewater monitoring is a valuable public health tool that can track a variety of health markers. The strong correlations between trends in wastewater viral concentrations and county-level COVID-19 case counts point to the ability of wastewater data to represent changes in a community's disease burden. However, studies are lacking on whether the populations sampled through wastewater monitoring represent the characteristics of the broader community and the implications on health equity. We conducted a geospatial analysis to examine the extent to which populations contributing to wastewater collected through the North Carolina Wastewater Monitoring Network as of June 2022 represent the broader countywide and statewide populations. After intersecting sewershed boundary polygons for 38 wastewater treatment plants across 18 counties with census block and tract polygons, we compared the demographics and social vulnerability of (1) people residing in monitored sewersheds with countywide and statewide populations, and (2) sewered residents, regardless of inclusion in wastewater monitoring, with unsewered residents. We flagged as meaningful any differences greater than +/- 5 percentage points or 5 percent (for categorical and continuous variables, respectively) and noted statistically significant differences (p < 0.05). We found that residents within monitored sewersheds largely resembled the broader community on most variables analyzed, with only a few exceptions. We also observed that when multiple sewersheds were monitored within a county, their combined service populations resembled the county population, although individual sewershed and county populations sometimes differed. When we contrasted sewered and unsewered populations within a given county, we found that sewered populations were more vulnerable than unsewered populations, suggesting that wastewater monitoring may fill in the data gaps needed to improve health equity. The approach we present here can be used to characterize sewershed populations nationwide to ensure that wastewater monitoring is implemented in a manner that informs equitable public health decision-making.

Abstract B137: Examining racial disparities in the association between food swamps, liquor store density, and colorectal cancer mortality among Georgia cancer patients

Abstract Introduction: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third-most common cancer in the United States (U.S.) and racial/ethnic disparities regarding CRC death continue to persist. Increased healthy food consumption and decreased processed food consumption are key factors in reducing CRC mortality. However, living in geographical areas with no access to healthy food options and more pro-inflammatory foods (i.e. food swamps) decreases healthy food access. The influx of liquor stores, or businesses that advertise and sell unhealthy food products including processed foods and alcohol, may contribute to elevated CRC death. We investigated whether liquor store density modified the association between residing in food swamps with risk of CRC death among a multiethnic sample of cancer patients in Georgia. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort analysis utilizing 2012, 2014, 2015, 2017, and 2020 data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture Food Environment Atlas along, U.S. Census County Health Patterns data, and linked them via county FIPS codes with patient data years 2010 – 2020 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program. Food swamp score (FS) was calculated as the ratio of fast-food and convenience stores to grocery stores and farmer’s markets. Liquor store density was calculated as the proportion of beer, wine, and liquor stores to Georgia county populations per 100,000. We categorized FS and liquor store density to low or high; higher scores indicated patients living in counties with poorer healthy food resources. Multilevel Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the association between FS, liquor store density and CRC death. Results: Among 56,861 SEER patients in Georgia, majority of CRC death was in high liquor store density counties. NH-Black and Other patients at both levels of FS counties had an increased risk of CRC death (low: adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 1.21, 95% CI = 1.16 – 1.26; high: aHR = 1.06, 95% CI = 1.01 – 1.12) when compared to NH-white patients-low-FS counties. In sub-analyses by liquor store density, NH-Black and Other patients-low-FS counties had an increased risk of CRC death among high (aHR = 1.24, 95% CI = 1.19 – 1.31) and low (aHR = 1.12, 95% CI = 1.03 – 1.21) liquor store density counties. Conclusions: NH-Black patients living in the worst food environments, including effect modification by liquor store density, had increased risk of CRC death. We strongly recommend local and state representatives and community stakeholders create and implement sustainable approaches at combating CRC in underserved racial communities by increasing access to healthier food sources (e.g. building more community gardens, fixing barriers to walkability). Citation Format: Malcolm S. Bevel, April Parham, Aashka Sheth, Meng-Han Tsai, Sydney E. Andrzejak, Samantha R. Jones, Justin X. Moore. Examining racial disparities in the association between food swamps, liquor store density, and colorectal cancer mortality among Georgia cancer patients [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 16th AACR Conference on the Science of Cancer Health Disparities in Racial/Ethnic Minorities and the Medically Underserved; 2023 Sep 29-Oct 2;Orlando, FL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2023;32(12 Suppl):Abstract nr B137.

Community-Based Diabetes Awareness Strategy With Detection and Intervention: The Mobile Diabetes Education Center.

To prevent diabetes and increase equitable access to health care screenings, Touro University California has created and implemented a community outreach program called the Mobile Diabetes Education Center (MOBEC). This program is a joint effort that also involves Sutter Health, the California Department of Public Health, Kaiser Permanente, the Solano County Department of Public Health, and community-based organizations, focusing on advancing health equity in Solano County's at-risk populations. This article reports on the services and initial successes of MOBEC. With its strong community collaboration, MOBEC has helped to raise awareness of diabetes and ensure access to much-needed health screenings and education. This model can potentially be used as a blueprint for similar efforts nationwide to address the health care needs of medically underserved communities.

Confirmation of a five‐way herbicide‐resistant Amaranthus tuberculatus population in North Carolina

AbstractAmaranthus tuberculatus (waterhemp) is a pervasive weed of the Mid‐west and ‐south United States and is not native to North Carolina but infestations in crop fields have been reported recently. Amaranthus tuberculatus has evolved resistance to seven herbicide groups and multiple herbicide‐resistant populations are common where the species is native. The reported A. tuberculatus infestations in North Carolina have not been controlled with herbicides but no formal herbicide resistance characterisation has been conducted to date. Glasshouse dose–response experiments were conducted to determine the susceptibility of a population collected from Surry County, North Carolina to commonly applied postemergence herbicides compared to a herbicide‐susceptible population collected from Story County, Iowa. The Surry County population survived labelled rates of imazethapyr, atrazine, glyphosate, fomesafen, and mesotrione; the Story County population was controlled with these herbicides. Further, 2,4‐D, dicamba, and glufosinate effectively controlled the Surry and Story County populations. Molecular sequencing assays were subsequently conducted to determine if altered target sites facilitated resistance in the acetolactate synthase (ALS), 5‐enolpyruvylshikimate‐3‐phosphate synthase (EPSPS), photosystem II (psbA), and protoporphyrinogen oxidase (PPX2) genes. The Surry County population carried a Trp574Leu and ∆Gly210 mutations in the ALS and PPX2 gene, respectively. No mutations that would confer resistance were found in the EPSPS or psbA gene for either population. The results of both experiments provide evidence that a five‐way herbicide‐resistant A. tuberculatus population has encroached North Carolina. More research is needed to determine the mechanisms of resistance to atrazine, glyphosate, and mesotrione.

Association of In-person vs Virtual Education With Community COVID-19 Case Incidence Following School Reopenings in the First Year of the COVID-19 Pandemic

The variability in timing of middle and secondary school reopenings during the 2020 to 2021 school year in the US presents an opportunity to examine the associations of different approaches to in-person education with changes in community COVID-19 incidence. Early studies on this topic have reached mixed conclusions and may be biased by unmeasured confounders. To estimate the association of in-person vs virtual instruction for students at the sixth grade level or above with county-level COVID-19 incidence in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. This cohort study included matched pairs of counties resuming school programs with in-person vs virtual instruction, drawn from 229 US counties that contained a single public school district and with county populations exceeding 100 000 residents. Counties that contained 1 single public school district and reopened in-person schooling for students at the sixth grade level or above during the fall of 2020 were matched 1-to-1 with counties whose school district reopened with only virtual instruction, based on geographic proximity, population-level demographic factors, the resumption of school district-level fall sports activity, and baseline county COVID-19 incidence rates. Data were analyzed from November 2021 to November 2022. In-person instruction for students at the sixth grade level or above resuming between August 1 and October 31, 2020. County-level daily COVID-19 incidence per 100 000 residents. The inclusion criteria and subsequent matching algorithm led to the identification of 51 pairs of matched counties among 79 total unique counties. Exposed counties had a median (IQR) of 141 840 (81 441-241 910) residents each, and unexposed counties had a median (IQR) of 131 412 (89 011-278 666) residents each. County schools with in-person vs virtual instruction had similar daily COVID-19 case incidence within the first 4 weeks after in-person reopening, but counties with in-person instruction had higher daily incidence beyond 4 weeks. Daily case incidence per 100 000 residents among counties with in-person instruction, compared with counties with virtual instruction, was higher at 6 weeks (adjusted incidence rate ratio, 1.24 [95% CI, 1.00-1.55]) and at 8 weeks after (adjusted incidence rate ratio, 1.31 [95% CI, 1.06-1.62]). This outcome was also concentrated in counties where schools provided full rather than hybrid instructional models. In a cohort study of matched pairs of counties that reopened with in-person vs virtual instruction at the secondary school level in the 2020 to 2021 academic year, counties with in-person school instructional models early in the COVID-19 pandemic experienced increases in county-level COVID-19 incidence at 6 and 8 weeks after in-person reopening, compared with counties with virtual instructional models.

Ploidy and Karyotype Analysis of Different Populations of &lt;i&gt;Paeonia mairei&lt;/i&gt;, an Endemic Species to China

Paeonia (Paeoniaceae) has an ancient origin, unique genetic evolution, and an isolated taxonomic status. China is the genetic origin of the genus Paeonia and an area rich in wild Paeonia resources. However, since herbaceous peony is not as well studied as woody peony, especially some species that are currently endemic to China. One such species that is endemic to China is Paeonia mairei, which is valuable germplasm for evolution research and cultivar improvement. Despite this, the karyotype of P. mairei remains inconclusive. In this study, root tips of plants from eight populations of P. mairei were used to examine their ploidy and to assess karyotype diversity. The results indicate that all eight P. mairei populations were tetraploid (2n=4x=20=12m+4sm+4st) with a 2A karyotype. Karyotype asymmetry ranged from 60.61% for P6 (Liangfengya, Foping County) to 63.12% for P4 (Ningqiang County). The chromosome length ratio ranged from 1.7398 (Dongchuan District) to 1.9660 (Dayi County) while the AI ranged from 4.4535 (Ningqiang County) to 5.6085 (Foping County). These findings indicate that the population in Foping County is relatively evolved whereas that in Ningqiang County is relatively primitive. Cluster analysis of karyotypic parameters showed that P3 (Dayi County) and P7 (Miaogou, Foping County) populations differed greatly from the other six populations, which could be clustered into two geographic branches. Our findings provide a scientific basis for exploring origin and evolutionary characteristics of P. mairei.

Evaluating the Spanish readability of American Society for Metabolic and Bariatric Surgery (ASMBS) Centers of Excellence (COE) websites.

Healthcare disparities continue to be an ongoing struggle in Bariatrics. Limited availability of Spanish online material may be a correctible barrier for accessibility to Hispanic patients. We sought to evaluate accredited Bariatric Centers of Excellence (COE) for Spanish readability via their websites to determine accessibility for Spanish speakers. This was an internet research study. 103 COE accredited by American Society for Metabolic and Bariatric Surgery (ASMBS) and the American College of Surgeons (ACS) were evaluated and assigned one of five Spanish Visibility Categories. The United States was divided into 4 regions. Regional Spanish visibility was calculated by dividing each category count by the number of institutions in each region. County Spanish-speaking populations were obtained from the US Census Bureau's 2009-2013 American Community Survey. Differences in their distributions across the Spanish Visibility Categories were investigated using the Mann-Whitney U test. 25% of websites were translatable to Spanish, and a regional discrepancy was found with 61% translatable in the West, 19% in Northeast, 19% in Midwest, and 15% in South. Median Spanish-speaking population was higher in counties where websites were translatable to Spanish than where websites were not translatable. Healthcare disparities in Bariatrics continue to be an ongoing struggle. We suggest that Spanish readability for ASMBS ACS COE websites should be improved regardless of geographic differences in Spanish-speaking populations. We believe it would be valuable for these websites to have standards for readability of Spanish and other languages.

Confirmation and detection of novel acetolactate synthase- and protoporphyrinogen oxidase–inhibiting herbicide-resistant redroot pigweed (Amaranthus retroflexus) populations in North Carolina

AbstractComplaints of control failures with acetolactate synthase (ALS)- and protoporphyrinogen oxidase (PPO)-inhibiting herbicides on redroot pigweed (Amaranthus retroflexus L.) were reported in conventional soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] fields in North Carolina. Greenhouse dose–response assays confirmed that the Camden County and Pasquotank County populations were less sensitive to ALS- and PPO-inhibiting herbicides compared with susceptible A. retroflexus populations, suggesting the evolution of resistance to these herbicides. Sanger sequencing of target genes determined the Camden County population carried a Trp-574-Leu mutation in the ALS gene and an Arg-98-Gly mutation in the PPX2 gene, while the Pasquotank County population carried a His-197-Pro mutation in the ALS gene (first documentation of the mutation in the Amaranthus genus), but no mutation was detected in the PPX2 gene. Single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotyping assays were developed to enable efficient screening of future control failures in order to limit the spread of these herbicide-resistant populations. In addition, preliminary testing of these assays revealed the three mutations were ubiquitous in the respective populations. These two populations represent the first confirmed cases of PPO-inhibiting herbicide-resistant A. retroflexus in the United States, as well as the first confirmed cases of this particular herbicide-resistance profile in A. retroflexus inhabiting North America. While no mutation was found in the PPX2 gene of the Pasquotank County population, we suggest that this population has evolved resistance to PPO-inhibiting herbicides, but the mechanism of resistance is to be determined.

Colorectal Cancer Screening in Rural and Urban Primary Care Practices Amid Implementation of the Medicare Access and CHIP Reauthorization Act.

The Medicare Access and CHIP Reauthorization Act (MACRA) incentivized primary care practices to improve colorectal cancer screening rates. This study examined if colorectal screening rates improved among rural and urban primary care practices amid implementation of MACRA. Colorectal cancer screening data are from a national registry of 139 primary care practices. Repeated measures regression tested for rural/urban differences and changes in screening rates between 2016 and 2020, adjusting for county demographic factors and social deprivation. Screening rates were 64% in both rural and urban practices in the first quarter of 2016 and increased to 80% and 83% in rural and urban practices, respectively, in the last quarter of 2020. In adjusted analyses, screening rates increased by 4% per year and there were no rural/urban differences. Lower screening rates were associated with higher county proportions of persons who were 45 to 74 years of age and Hispanic. Higher screening rates were associated with higher county proportions of persons who were White, Black, and Asian and higher social deprivation. Colorectal screening rates improved among rural and urban primary care practices during implementation of MACRA, but disparities persist among practices serving county populations that are relatively older, more Hispanic, and have higher social deprivation.

The Reintroduction Analysis of European Bison (Bison bonasus L., 1758) in the North of Romania and the Identification of the Most Favourable Locations

We analysed the possibility of reintroducing the European bison (Bison bonasus L.) in the north of Romania—in Suceava, Neamț, and Maramureș counties—as well as increasing the wild European bison population in Neamț county to improve the genetic quality of the existing population. Currently, there is a population of over 50 individuals in the wild in Vânători Neamț Natural Park, Romania. At the same time, an attempt was made to identify the connecting corridors between the free European bison in Neamț county and other populations through new nuclei of European bison released in Suceava and Maramureș counties. In this regard, the hunting grounds with the highest ecological potential for the analysed species were identified using GIS spatial analysis techniques. The aim was also to trace possible ecological corridors linking different reintroduction locations, taking into account the ecological claims of the species. The analysis also followed the size of the European bison groups to be released, the sex ratio of each group, and the periodicity of their releasing. In order to reach viable populations, scenarios and simulations were carried out depending on the age, number, and sex of the relocated specimens. In this regard, the dynamics and the minimum viable population that could survive without risk of extinction were highlighted. The analysis showed that the analysed area has a high potential for the reintroduction of European bison in the wild. The release and creation of new European bison nuclei in the wild creates the premises for natural contacts with the existing free populations in the wild, genetic improvement, and increasing fauna diversity with ecological, social, and economic implications.

Varied Institutional Responses to COVID-19: An Investigation of U.S. Colleges’ and Universities’ Reopening Plans for Fall 2020

The authors investigate coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) risk factors, suitability of online instruction, politics, and institutions’ finances as rationales guiding instructional delivery decisions for fall 2020, after COVID-19’s emergence. Contributions include estimating multinomial logit regressions with mode of delivery as a categorical variable, integrating resource dependence and crisis response as theoretical frames, and introducing new predictor variables, including a measure of local residential access to broadband Internet. Findings suggest that county populations, local political preferences, and the percentage of revenue derived from auxiliary enterprises were consistent predictors of delivery mode. Political parties of an institution’s governor and congressional representative were predictive of delivery mode for institutions in the lowest tercile of endowment per student but not for institutions in the highest tercile. Bottom-tercile institutions substituted from online to in-person reopening as reliance on revenue from auxiliary enterprises increased, but top-tercile institutions appeared only to substitute from hybrid to in-person or from online to hybrid delivery as revenue from auxiliary enterprises or tuition and fees increased.

The Unintended Consequence of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic on Racial Inequities Associated With Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACEs): Findings From a Population-Based Study.

A rising concern is the COVID-19 pandemic effect on adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) due to increased parental stress and social/physical isolation. These pandemic effects are likely to be higher in already marginalized communities. The objective of this ecological study was to examine the relationship between COVID-19 cases and deaths, race/ethnicity, and the estimated number of adults with ACEs using data from South Carolina (SC). COVID-19 reported cases and death data were obtained from the SC Department of Health and Environmental Control. ACE data was used from the 2014–2016 SC Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. Census data were used to obtain county population data. To measure the relationship between these variables, the Spearman rank-order correlation test was used because the data distribution was non-normal. There was a moderate relationship between the estimated number of adults with one or more ACEs and deaths (ρ = 0.89) and race/ethnicity-specific COVID-19 case counts by county (Black: ρ = 0.76; =White: ρ = 0.96; Hispanic: ρ = 0.89). Further, the Spearman correlation test showed the strongest relationship between COVID-19 deaths and race-ethnicity-specific county populations was with the Black adult population (ρ = 0.90). Given the known link between existing health inequities and exposure to COVID-19, these results demonstrate that the current pandemic could have unintended consequences on the well-being of children and caregivers. Response efforts should consider promoting protective factors for children and families and advocating for equitable policies and systems that serve children.

Exploring Race and Ethnicity Representational Inequities in Illinois Medical Schools.

Purpose: Efforts to increase U.S. medical school student diversity have lagged behind the continued growth of racial/ethnic minorities in the population. A targeted, local approach may catalyze actionable change that holds schools accountable for addressing community needs through representation. The aims of our study are to (1) analyze the student racial/ethnic profiles of allopathic and osteopathic medical schools in the diverse state of Illinois and (2) compare student race/ethnicity with that of schools' local county and primary teaching hospital patient populations.Methods: Data from the Association of American Medical Colleges and American Association of College of Osteopathic Medicine were used to gather matriculated student race/ethnicity from the eight allopathic schools and one osteopathic medical school in Illinois. Representational inequity quotients (RIQs) were calculated to determine the proportion of Hispanic/Latinx, black/African American, and total underrepresented in medicine (UIM) individuals in three reference populations (U.S., county, and primary teaching hospital patient populations) relative to each medical school's student racial/ethnic profile.Results: Across Illinois schools, mean RIQs were highest (showed greater inequity) when county demographics were used as the reference population as opposed to U.S. or hospital populations. For all schools individually, Hispanic county-student RIQs were higher than RIQs based on hospital population. For a majority of schools with primary teaching hospital in Cook County, hospital-student RIQs magnified representational inequity for the black population.Conclusions: Using county data to evaluate medical school representation inequities may better reflect UIM representation goals than the U.S. population. Examining hospital demographics may further reveal other structural inequities relevant to medical education, such as primary teaching hospitals that are not adequately serving their surrounding communities. By evaluating RIQs on a local and hospital-population level, schools can periodically assess to what degree their student body and hospital populations represent their communities and adjust recruitment, retention, and service efforts.

Evaluation of a Parsimonious COVID-19 Outbreak Prediction Model: Heuristic Modeling Approach Using Publicly Available Data Sets.

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has changed public health policies and human and community behaviors through lockdowns and mandates. Governments are rapidly evolving policies to increase hospital capacity and supply personal protective equipment and other equipment to mitigate disease spread in affected regions. Current models that predict COVID-19 case counts and spread are complex by nature and offer limited explainability and generalizability. This has highlighted the need for accurate and robust outbreak prediction models that balance model parsimony and performance.ObjectiveWe sought to leverage readily accessible data sets extracted from multiple states to train and evaluate a parsimonious predictive model capable of identifying county-level risk of COVID-19 outbreaks on a day-to-day basis.MethodsOur modeling approach leveraged the following data inputs: COVID-19 case counts per county per day and county populations. We developed an outbreak gold standard across California, Indiana, and Iowa. The model utilized a per capita running 7-day sum of the case counts per county per day and the mean cumulative case count to develop baseline values. The model was trained with data recorded between March 1 and August 31, 2020, and tested on data recorded between September 1 and October 31, 2020.ResultsThe model reported sensitivities of 81%, 92%, and 90% for California, Indiana, and Iowa, respectively. The precision in each state was above 85% while specificity and accuracy scores were generally >95%.ConclusionsOur parsimonious model provides a generalizable and simple alternative approach to outbreak prediction. This methodology can be applied to diverse regions to help state officials and hospitals with resource allocation and to guide risk management, community education, and mitigation strategies.

Understudied questions of Key's friends and neighbors voting thesis

AbstractObjectivesThis study addressesfour questions posed by V.O. Key's friends‐and‐neighbors (F&amp;N) voting thesis that have been neglected in the scholarly literature.MethodsPooled regression of 101 primary and 66 general elections in Mississippi, South Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin for the offices of U.S. senator and governor over the period 2002–2016 yielded a total of 11,263 candidate‐county cases.ResultsF&amp;N effects are most pronounced in primary elections, for Democratic candidates, and for nonincumbents. Also greater F&amp;N effects for candidates whose “home” county populations were less well educated. The relative importance of F&amp;N effects is displaced by social cleavage variables in elections where they are relevant to voter choices, namely general elections rather than primaries.ConclusionThis study begs the larger question for future research of why F&amp;N has greater effect for Democrats than Republicans and whether more Democrats tend to be low‐information voters.

COVID-19: state population coverage by mask orders in the US

Background: A variety of government bodies in the US - cities and tribal councils, counties, and states - have issued mask-wearing orders to prevent the spread of COVID-19. Methods: We measured the duration of these orders and the populations covered by them in each of the governed areas. We measured the in effect days from April 3, 2020 (the date of the first mask order) to November 30, 2020; the duration of the measured period amounts to 241 days. We used data generated from local and state governments, and news organizations to measure the enactment dates and the duration of the orders; and from the US Census Bureau (dated 2019) to measure municipal, county, and state populations. Results: The average coverage over all states was 57.7% of the maximum person days of coverage. States which issued statewide orders from their governors had a total of 67.1% coverage; this includes coverage from regional government orders prior to the statewide orders. States with orders only from municipal or county councils had on average 27.1% coverage. Conclusion: Overall, state governments took leadership in the implementation of mask orders.

Laboratory Selection, Cross-Resistance, Risk Assessment to Lambda-Cyhalothrin Resistance, and Monitoring of Insecticide Resistance for Plant Bug Lygus pratensis (Hemiptera: Miridae) in Farming-Pastoral Ecotones of Northern China.

The plant bug Lygus pratensis Linnaeus (Hemiptera: Miridae) is an important insect pest of alfalfa in grassland farming in northern China. A field population of L. pratensis was selected in the laboratory for 14 consecutive generations with lambda-cyhalothrin to generate 42.555-fold resistance. Selection also induced low cross-resistance to imidacloprid and beta-cypermethrin, and medium cross-resistance to deltamethrin. Realized heritability (h2) of lambda-cyhalothrin resistance was 0.339. Susceptible baselines of L. pratensis were established for five insecticides using the glass-vial method, the values of which were 6.849, 3.423, 8.778, 3.559, and 117.553 ng/cm2 for phoxim, methomyl, imidacloprid, lambda-cyhalothrin, and avermectin, respectively, along with the calculated LC99 diagnostic doses. This resistance risk assessment study suggests that a high risk of lambda-cyhalothrin resistance exists in the field. In addition, a 5-year field investigation of resistance monitoring of L. pratensis was conducted in seven alfalfa regions in farming-pastoral ecotones in northern China. The resistance levels of most populations were very low for phoxim, methomyl, and avermectin, with an upward trend for lambda-cyhalothrin resistance in the DK (Dengkou County), TKT (Tuoketuo County), XL (Xilinhot), and LX (Linxi County) populations during 2015-2019, and medium resistance level to imidacloprid in the TKT population in five years we sampled. The study provided information on chemical control, lambda-cyhalothrin resistance development, baseline susceptibility, and the status of resistance to five commonly-used insecticides against L. pratensis. These results could be used to optimize pyrethroid insecticide use as part of a pest integrated resistance management strategy against this key insect pest of alfalfa.