Trading Partner Countries Research Articles

Impacts of Australia’s free trade agreements on trade in agricultural products: an aggregative and disaggregative analysis

The importance of free trade agreements (FTAs) has been increasing as such agreements help reduce barriers to trade. This paper estimates the agricultural trade creation and export diversion effects of Australia’s free trade agreements (FTAs) at the aggregate and disaggregate levels, using the Poisson pseudo‐maximum‐likelihood (PPML) estimator. It includes 24 of Australia’s major trading partner countries comprising FTA and non‐FTA members and covers 22 years from 1996 to 2017. The heteroscedasticity robust regression error specification test (RESET) confirms the relevance of PPML over the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) estimator. Results showed that China–Australia, Korea–Australia, Australia–USA and Japan–Australia have larger trade creation effects in the agricultural sector. At the commodity level, variation in trade creation effects is estimated from the different trade agreements. Among the selected commodities, the larger effects were generated in trade in sugar and wine by the implementation of the majority of the trade agreements. Overall, the trade creation was greater than the export diversion of the FTAs. The findings of the study have implications for Australia’s future trade agreements.

Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Nilai Tukar Rupiah Periode 1999Q1-2019Q2

The exchange rate plays an important role in influencing the level of Indonesia's international trade towards trading partner countries. This study discusses the factors that influence the exchange rate of the rupiah against dollar both in the short and long term. The variables that are suspected to influence changes in exchange rates are the inflation rate, the interest rate (SBI), world oil prices, the value of exports, and the value of imports. This research was conducted during 1999 quarter 1 to 2019 quarter 2. The results showed that there was a long-term and short-term relationship between inflation rates, interest rates, world oil prices, exports and imports to the exchange rate. In the short term, the interest rate and world oil prices have a significant effect on the exchange rate. In the long run, the inflation rate, world oil prices and imports have a significant effect on the exchange rate.

Disease-free zones: bilateral recognition procedure in South America.

According to the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE), zoning is a risk management strategy for achieving the progressive control and eradication of animal diseases, and for providing guarantees for international trade. The implementation and effectiveness of zoning relies on the quality of Veterinary Services. Eradicating a disease and securing trading partners' recognition of this disease-free status demands resources, and promotes economic and fruitful development. It also guarantees the sanitary safety of trade, provided that OIE standards are applied and the World Trade Organization (WTO) Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS Agreement) is complied with. The OIE international standards and the SPS Agreement lay down provisions for the effective implementation of zoning and the recognition of disease-free zones. Although animal-disease-free statuses place such zones in a favourable position with regard to exporting their products to the international market, they can create internal restrictions between regions of the same country with differing statuses. As a general rule, each importing country implements its own evaluation procedure, independent of OIE official recognition. While this usually provides for information evaluation and an on-site inspection mission, there is no harmonisation between countries regarding the methodology or the information required for risk assessment. Recognition of a disease-free zone does not imply automatic permission to export any product from that zone. Firstly, it is necessary to request that the market be opened for each product in question, guaranteeing the conditions demanded by the target market (risk analysis and animal health certification). To benefit from external markets, there are ways of speeding up bilateral recognition of disease-free zones, such as bilateral veterinary agreements or free trade agreements that establish clear areas and procedures to be implemented by trading partner countries. The ongoing exchange of information among countries builds trust among their Veterinary Services and authorities, which leads to expedited recognition procedures. The work of the OIE (Pathway for the Evaluation of Performance of Veterinary Services [PVS Pathway], OIE Observatory) and the WTO Committee on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS Committee) (enforcement mechanisms) should be strengthened to assist countries in implementing zoning.

ANALISIS DETERMINAN EKSPOR PROVINSI SUMATERA UTARA: PENDEKATAN GRAVITY MODEL

Export Growth has been being one of important component in enhancing of economic growth of North Sumatera Province. During 2005-2010, the average growth of export rate of North Sumatera Province is 16,5 percent per year with 5,23 percent per year the average of it’s contribution to growth. The aim of this research is to detect the factors which affect the enhancement of export rate of North Sumatera Province during 2005-2010. With augmented gravity model approach, this research analyzes the effect of gross domestic product percapita rate and the population of each trading partner countries, geographical distance between North Sumatera Province and every trading partner countries, foreign direct investment and real effective exchange rate of North Sumatera Province, to the export rate of North Sumatera Province to every trading countries, such as United States of America, Netherland, China, India, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Egypt, Singapore, and Ukraine. By using random effect model in pooled data processing, the result of this research describes that the gross domestic product percapita and the population of each trading partner countries affect positively and significantly to the export rate of North Sumatera Province. As well as foreign direct investment rate and real effective exchange rate of North Sumatera Province show the positive and significant effect. Whereas, geographical distance as the trade barrier, correlate negatively and significantly to the export rate of North Sumatera Province.

Sustainable Timber Trade: A Study on Discrepancies in Chinese Logs and Lumber Trade Statistics

Discrepancies in trade statistics can be normal or benign and attributed to a wide variety of unintentional factors, or in some instances within the timber products sector, such discrepancies can be associated with “systemic” factors that distort trade statistics, including (i) measurement and shipment issues, (ii) misreporting of product volumes, (iii) misclassification of timber product types, and (iv) government regulations concerned about trade. This study measured trade discrepancies in logs and lumber trade statistics for China and its trading partner countries from 2002 to 2018 using a time-lagged function, based on the customs data available from Global Trade Information Services (GTIS), with the aim of exploring a more nuanced understanding of trade discrepancies and their “systemic” factors. The results showed that the range of overall discrepancies in logs and lumber trade statistics shrunk over time, from [−0.069, 1.207] in 2002–2007 to [−0.120, 0.408] in 2013–2018. The larger trade flows of logs and lumber from Russia, New Zealand, and the U.S. (each above 10% of total China’s import) showed small trade statistics discrepancy ratios, which were less than ± 0.06. However, trade discrepancies still remained large at the disaggregated level, and significant differences of trade discrepancies between tropical and non-tropical countries. The range of trade discrepancies in hardwood logs increased from 2002 to 2018 and appeared to be attributed to misclassification and misreporting in tropical countries such as Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Ghana. However, these countries’ trade flows are becoming relatively minor over time. Government policies are suggested to play an important role in influencing both the occurrence and resolution of trade discrepancies.

Trade Agreements and Global Value Chains: New Evidence from China’s Belt and Road Initiative

This paper investigates the relationship between China’s trade agreements (TAs) and partner countries’ upgrade in global value chains (GVCs). We focus on the experience of China and relate China’s TAs with one belt and one road (OBOR) initiative. A structural equation model (SEM) is applied on a dataset including 216 countries and regions to identify the direct and indirect effects of China’s TAs and OBOR initiative on its export, outwards foreign direct investment (OFDI) and partner economy’ GVCs upgrade over the period 2010–2015. We find that China’s TA partner countries are more likely to be included in the OBOR initiative than those non-TA partner countries. The positive effects of China’s TAs and OBOR initiative on China’s export, outwards foreign direct investment (OFDI) and partner countries’ upgrade in GVCs differ across country groups at the different locations of GVCs. Both vertical and horizontal spillover effects exist in China’s TAs. Therefore, the partner countries at low end and middle of GVCs might benefit more from TAs with China than those richer countries at the high end of GVCs.

Imposing legality: hegemony and resistance under the EU Forest Law Enforcement, Governance, and Trade (FLEGT) initiative

Timber legality trade restrictions and verification are a bundle of contemporary mechanisms triggered by global concerns about forest degradation and deforestation. The European Union Forest Law Enforcement, Governance and Trade initiative is a significant effort to not only screen out illegal timber and wood products from the EU, but also support trading partner countries to improve their legality definitions and verification processes. But by using bilateral agreements (Voluntary Partnership Agreements) as a key mechanism, the EU legitimizes trade partner nation-states as the authority to decide what is legal. We engage in a theoretical debate about the complexities of the meaning of legality, and then analyze empirical data collected from interviews in Ghana, Indonesia, Vietnam and Europe with policy, civil society and industry actors to understand how different actors understand legality. We find hegemonic notions of Westphalian statehood at the core of 'global' notions of legality and often contrast with local understandings of legality. Non-state actors understand these hegemonic notions of legality as imposed upon them and part of a colonial legacy. Further, notions of legality that fail to conform with hegemonic understandings are readily framed by nation-states as immoral or criminal. We emphasize the importance of understanding these framings to elucidate the embedded assumptions about what comprises legality within assemblages of global actors.Key words: FLEGT, timber legality, hegemony, power, globalization

Export determinant analysis: Indonesia s export to Singapore and Japan case study

Purpose- This study analyses the influence in Rupiah’s exchange rate and the economic growth of trading partner country of Indonesia’s export which are Singapore and Japan as the two biggest trading countries in Indonesia’s export products in Asia region. Methodology- Economy models used as analysis tools in this research are co-integration method and dynamic linear Error Correction Mechanism Model. Findings- This study discovered that in long term, exchange rate has a negative impact to Indonesia’s export, both for Singapore and Japan, while in short term the exchange rate does not have any correlation with export. Subsequently, economic growth of the trading partner country in long term has positive impact to export, while in short term it has no impact. Conclusion- Findings of this empirical studies showed that in the long term, the effect of the exchange rate to Indonesia’s export to Japan is greater compared to Singapore. Subsequently, the effect of Singapore’s economic growth to Indonesia’s export is greater compared to the effect of Japan’s economic growth. The exchange rate has negative impact to Indonesia’s export, both from Singapore and Japan. The result of this study has a probability to happen in Indonesia because Indonesia’s export is still dominated by commodities with prices that tend to decrease, thus the effect of weakening rupiah is very small compared to export increase.

Effects of Increasing Exchange Rate on the Export Performance in Sri Lanka: A Gravity Model Approach

This paper attempts to identify the causal relationship between rising of real effective exchange rate and the export performance in Sri Lanka for the period of 2000 to 2016. Study employed a Gravity model approach using a panel data set of 174 trading partner countries. The study finds that there is no significant impact of rising of exchange rate on export performance during the period of study. It is also found that GDP, distance, FDI, country being landlocked, global financial crisis and ending of civil war have a significant impact on export performance of the country.

Does Corruption in Exporter and Importer Country Influence International Trade?

ABSTRACT We investigate whether bilateral exports of goods flowing from Vietnam to its 46 top trading partners are affected by corruption over the period 2000–2014. We capture the effects of corruption of Vietnam and her trade partners, separately using the corruption perception index (CPI) developed by Transparency International. The CPI captures both bureaucratic and political corruption perceptions. Our key results are as follows. We find that corruption in Vietnam has discouraged its bilateral export flows. The negative effect of corruption is highly significant in the long-run. In driving Vietnam’s exports, perceptions of corruption in Vietnam are found to be more potent than perceptions in importer countries. We find that the sign effects of corruption in Vietnam or trading partner countries (or importers) are not dependent on whether trading partners are developed or developing. However, we do find that corruption discourages developing countries more than developed countries from importing goods from Vietnam. We confirm the robustness of our results using the control of corruption (COC) measure of corruption extracted from the World Bank Database.

The Trade Of Indonesian Spice Comodities In International Market

This research is aimed to (1) observe the trade patterns and domination export in the spice commodities between Indonesia in international market and the countries as its main trade partners, and (2) observe the performance of the export and import in industry of Indonesia spices with its trade partner countries. Grubel-Lloyd Index (GLI) were used to detect whether the trade patterns in spice industry is as intra-industry or as inter-industry as well as to figure out the domination of the spice commodity export of Indonesia to its trade partner countries. The performance of the export and import in spice industry could be analyzed using the share of export and import between Indonesia and its trade partner countries. This research used the secondary data obtained from UNComtrade in a 15-year period (2002-2016) by concerning with a number of the main trade partner countries. The results of the research showed that the trade of Indonesian spice commodities in international market and among its main trade partners is categorized as a partial industry. Indonesia overall dominates the spice trade with its main trading partners; thus, the trade balance of Indonesian spice commodities is surplus. It is only with China and India in which the trade pattern is categorized as the intra-industry. Government needs to do some various efforts to encourage the increase of exports of Indonesian spices in the international market by developing market intelligence, enhancing the role of attachés in the spice trade diplomacy in the partner countries and potential countries.

The volatility of world trade in the 21st century: Whose fault is it anyway?

AbstractThis paper explores the drivers of the volatility of international trade. It decomposes trade growth into six components that have gained attention in the literature and studies their contribution to overall volatility. It yields three main findings. First, trade volatility in the 1990–2015 period is mostly explained by a common factor, changes in the gravity‐related characteristics of a country's trading partners and country‐specific factors. Product composition and the identity of trading partners appear to be less important in explaining volatility. Second, the pre‐2009 decline in volatility and the post‐2009 increase in volatility appear to be driven by different factors. The former is mostly explained by a decline in the variance of country‐specific factors; the latter appears to be driven by an increase in the volatility of common factors. Third, diversification is a likely force behind the steady decline in the volatility stemming from country‐specific factors, especially in developing countries.

Intra-Industry Trade in Indonesia: A Case of the Textile and Textile Product Industry

Trade is one of the instruments driving the economy that has a great dependence on global dynamics. Several trade policies in Indonesia have been carried out to encourage the performance of export imports through various collaborations with Indonesia's largest trading partner countries such as China. The trade intensity that occurs in both countries is certainly expected to have an impact on the economy. This study aims to see the intra-industry intensity of trade, especially in the textile goods sector between Indonesia and China. The result shows that Intra-textile textile trade intensity between Indonesia and China, from 2000-2013 based on the ISIC 321 category (textile industry) obtained by Indonesia and China intra-industry trade, because the overall intra-industry trade index is 53.9%. Suggestion to the The government is expected to be able to boost the performance of exports and consumption of the domestic community, because so far Indonesia's economic growth has been driven more by the performance of exports and household consumption which is still quite strong; Policies regarding investment licensing must be further simplified and there is a guarantee of the availability of energy supplies for the textile industry machinery. The government must also try to increase investment in the textile industry sector especially to modernize old or worn machines so that the textile industry can expand production.

NON-TARIFF MEASURES IMPACT ON INDONESIAN FISHERY EXPORT

This study aims to analyze the impact of Non tariff measures using sanitary and phytosanitary policy (SPS) and technical trade barriers (TBTs) on fishery exports of Indonesia and its trading partner countries such as China, South Korea, Vietnam, Canada, Russia and the European Union in period of 2007 to 2016. SPS and TBT are measured using inventory approach in the form of coverage ratio. In addition, this study uses a gravity model and panel data regression method. The results of this study indicate that the variables GDP of exporting country and GDP of importing country have a positive and significant effect on Indonesian fishery exports. Distance and SPS have a negative and significant effect on Indonesian fishery exports, while TBT has no effect on Indonesian fishery exports. Keywords: Export, SPS and TBT, Fishery Export, coverage ratio

Trade agreements with cross-border unbundling

Does cross-border unbundling of production process introduce a new reason for trade policy intervention and change the role of trade agreements? This paper revisits the purpose and design of trade agreements in a theoretical framework that considers the firm’s global production operations with cross-border sourcing of intermediate inputs subject to trade costs, inclusive of trade policy interventions by governments. The paper highlights an interrelationship among market-clearing prices of final goods and the associated domestic and imported intermediate inputs due to their dependence on trade policies through production linkage, which gives a novel feature to the purpose and design of trade agreements beyond the conventional market-access argument associated with the terms-of-trade theory. Specifically, local price externality arises in the sense that a government uses a combination of trade policies to manipulate the local price for domestically-sourced intermediate inputs in the trading partner country. To achieve globally efficient outcomes through trade agreements, we propose to specify market access using the trade-weighted version of terms of trade so that governments effectively coordinate in changing value-added created from trade within the production chain in a reciprocal manner.

United Nations Sanctions on North Korea's Luxury Goods Imports: Impact and Implications

This article examines the impacts of UN Security Council sanctions on North Korea's banned luxury goods imports from 2004 to 2017 by investigating the bilateral trade flows between North Korea and its 71 trading partner countries. This analysis provides some evidence that the sanctions were effective only for those countries that implemented the sanctions. Overall, it is difficult to conclude that United Nations Resolution 1718, which was mainly targeted to ban luxury goods exports to North Korea, was effective in curtailing North Korea's import of luxury goods for the time period from 2006 to 2007. The article argues that the lack of a clearly defined list of luxury goods and the lack of enforcement are important reasons for the ineffectiveness of the sanctions.

BREXIT and the J-Curve Hypothesis for the UK: A Nonlinear ARDL Approach

In this study, we investigate the validity of the J-curve hypothesis based on the bilateral trade models between the UK and its 17 main trading partner countries over the period of 1981Q1-2015Q1, by applying Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) cointegration approach. The results of this study suggest no evidence supporting the J-curve hypothesis between the UK and any of its 17 trading partners. We also find that depreciations and appreciations in value of the GBP have asymmetric effects on the UK’s trade balances in the short-run. Therefore, the results of this study have potential to shed light on both short run and long run consequences of the recent fluctuations of the GBP with respect to the trade balances after the UK’s EU membership referendum in 2016.

Mercado internacional para frutas deshidratadas, oportunidades, limitaciones de acceso, normas y requisitos de exportación

En el mercado internacional se analizó los principales países socios comerciales de Nicaragua la mayor demanda se da en la Unión Europea representando el 98% de exportaciones, observando que el coco presento mayor volumen de exportación pero tiene el precio más bajo mientras el plátano seco es el producto mejor pagado con una tasa de crecimiento en el precio del 11% anual. Al exportar frutas deshidratadas se deben cumplir con una series de requisitos y normas sanitarias, fitosanitarias y de medio ambiente, el cual es emitido por medio de instituciones del estado. Al penetrar al mercado se debe enfrentar con restricciones y factores críticos. En los resultados obtenidos se determinó que si es viable comercializar al mercado internacional

Indonesian Export Efficiency : A Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model Approach

Export performance is an important aspect to encourage economic growth and economic prosperity. Export performance can be analysed using export efficiency variable. Export efficiency can be defined as ratio of the actual to potential exports. Knowing the export efficiency and factors affecting it could help policy maker to minimize and mitigate the affects of existing restrictive measures of trade. This study was conducted to analys the efficiency of Indonesia's merchandise exports and the affecting factors using stochastic frontier gravity model. Result of this study shown that Indonesian merchandise export flows with 62 trading partners is significantly positively affected by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and population, then significantly negatively affected by bilateral distance. The study also found that the average export efficiency of Indonesia to 62 trading partner countries up to 51.35 percent in 2012 and 49.69 percent in 2016. The highest value of export efficiency was in Singapore and the lowest was in Portugal. Result of technical inefficiency model reveals that export inefficiency increased by business freedom, investment freedom, and landlocked dummy, and then export inefficiency decreased by labor freedom, financial freedom, contig dummy and FTA dummy.

Statistical Analysis of Long-Term Trends of Trade Relations between Georgia and Canada

The article analyzes the long-term time series of 1995-2016 depicting trade relations between Georgia and Canada. Georgia's trade partner countries are ranked as a whole trade turnover, as well as export and import volume of goods and the ordinary position of Canada is established. The nature and direction of total trade turnover, as well as export and import tendencies are revealed. In the process of statistical analysis, the absolute and relative indicators were calculated. The export and import volume of 1995-2016 is also considered by the commodity groups and the first five of the largest commodity groups are drawn in both directions.
 
 The statistics show that the trade relations between Canada and Georgia and its development are important for both countries.