Country's Southern Research Articles

Spatiotemproal changes and hot spots of UTCI index over Iran

In this study, the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) gridded data from ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) database was applied to assess the spatiotemproal changes in thermal comfort in Iran for 1990–2021. This index's monthly changes and trends have been determined, using the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test. Moran's I was used to compute the index's spatial autocorrelation, and the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic was used to calculate the index's hot and cold spots. The findings indicated that the majority of the country experiences thermal comfort condition from June to October. Furthermore, no location of Iran has recorded very hot or very strong heat stress. Moderate and strong heat stress has only been recorded in a few areas along the southern coasts from May to November. Most of the country experiences strong, moderate, or slight cold stress from January to May, as well as November and December. According to the Moran I autocorrelation index, the spatial pattern of UTCI in Iran is cluster throughout the year. Significant hot spots have also formed throughout the country's southern coasts, with limited spatiotemproal variability. Significant cold spots have also formed, with more temporal and spatial variability, along the Alborz and Zagros mountain ranges.

Urban Air Pollution by Laser Photoacoustic Spectroscopy and Simplified Numerical Modeling of Gas Pollution in Urban Canyon

With rapid urbanization and industrialization, atmospheric pollution has emerged as a significant environmental challenge in Romania. Employing a laser photoacoustic spectroscopy detector, researchers analyzed ethylene, benzene, and toluene simultaneously across three distinct environmental settings in the country's southern region. This investigation spanned from March to August 2021, covering both spring and summer seasons. Measurements were taken at a breathing height of 1.5 meters above ground level. The highest concentrations of ethylene (116.82 ± 82.37 ppb), benzene (1.13 ± 0.32 ppb), and toluene (5.48 ± 3.27 ppb) were recorded at measurement point P1, situated within the city amidst residential buildings during the summer season. Additionally, the highest ozone levels (154.75 ± 68.02 ppb) were observed at point P3, located in an industrial area, during the summer. The behavior of gas concentrations is influenced by meteorological factors such as temperature, wind speed, and direction. The high toluene/benzene ratio suggests that traffic and industrial emissions are the primary sources of these pollutants. Notably, benzene and ozone concentrations exceeded prescribed limit values based on the measurements. Concurrently, a numerical model was employed to assess the impact of greenery on mitigating pollution in urban canyons. Specifically, the study focused on how wind velocity affects the dispersion of benzene pollutants in a street canyon. This study's governing equations utilized for air pollutant flow were the Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) equations for compressible turbulent flow and moisture transport in air, implemented through Comsol software.

Waist-to-Height Ratio: A Sensitive Tool for Assessing the Need for Nutritional Risk Management in Elderly Populations from Brazil.

Nutritional status assessment commonly relies on body mass index (BMI), which overlooks lean mass and adipose tissue distribution. However, waist circumference (WC) and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) provide additional insights into fat accumulation. By combining these indices, it may be possible to identify older adults needing weight management interventions. To assess the WC and WHtR as strategies for identifying individuals requiring weight management. A cross-sectional study was conducted with 509 elderly individuals in Northeast Brazil. Weight, height, hip circumference, and waist circumference were measured, and combined with indices such as BMI WC, WHR, and WHtR to identify those who require weight management. The DeLong test compared areas under the curves using receiver operating characteristic curves and statistical significance. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were calculated to verify usefulness for clinical application. A validation sample of 599 elderly individuals from the country's Southern region was used to confirm the results. Both WC and WHtR showed adequate diagnostic accuracy with no statistically significant difference in AUCs. WHtR ≥ 0.50 had 92% sensitivity in identifying men and women requiring nutritional management. WC presented lower sensitivity but 93% specificity, useful for excluding elderly individuals from the nutritional risk category. These results were consistent in the validation sample. WHtR is a valuable index for screening nutritional risk management in the elderly population, applicable to men and women. Conversely, WC performs better in excluding individuals who do not need nutritional risk management.

The importance of positional mobility for regional comparisons

In this paper, I show that the decomposition of intergenerational persistence indicators into their structural and positional components offers a clearer understanding of the determinants of heterogeneity in subnational mobility rates. This constitutes a departure from the current consensus in estimating mobility rates at the subnational level in economics. Applying this approach to the Mexican case, I show no significant differences in positional mobility across the country's regions. This contrasts with the existing results, particularly regarding intergenerational mobility in the country's southern region.

Pharmacists-led diabetes care in Nigeria (2000-2022): A systematic review

Background: Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a noncommunicable disease of global health concern, which is targeted for reduction according to the Sustainable Development Goals 3.4. The burden in Nigeria rose from 2.2% in 1997 to 5.77% in 2018. It is associated with high morbidity and mortality, thus requiring a collaborative care approach involving the patients and all healthcare providers to ensure optimal care. Pharmacists worldwide are involved in diabetes care, with evidence of positive outcomes, but the contributions of pharmacists in diabetes care have not been extensively reviewed in Nigeria. This review was aimed at describing the trends, geographical spread and quality of pharmacist-led diabetes care/research in Nigeria Methods:To identify diabetes-care research conducted by pharmacists in Nigeria, literature search for articles published between January 1, 2000 and June 5, 2022 was conducted, using databases such as PubMed/Medline, African Journal Online, Clinical Trials Registries, and Google Scholar. Medical subject headings (MeSH) and search terms combined with Boolean operators were among the keywords and search terms used for article identifification. Only studies published in English language were considered. Results: Of the 62 studies retained for review, 51 were conducted in the southern zone of Nigeria (South-West 25, South-East 15 and South-South 11) and 11 in the north (North-East 6, North-Central 4 and North-West 1). Most of the studies (92%) were published between 2010 and 2022, with 83.9% conducted using cross-sectional design, 4.8% were Quasi-Randomized Studies and 11.3% were Randomized Controlled Trials. This review revealed that compared to usual care, patients who received pharmacist-delivered care had signifificantly improved medication adherence, quality of life and other clinical variables, with more cost-effffective management outcomes. Conclusion: The contributions of pharmacists to diabetes care in Nigeria have signifificantly improved over the last decade. Majority of studies (82.3%) were conducted in the country's southern zone and only 11.3% were Randomized Controlled Trials with signifificant improvement in patients' treatment outcomes. More pharmacist-led high quality patient care research are recommended at the state (especially northern states) and national levels to improve on the current evidence of pharmacists' contribution to diabetes management in the Nigeria.

Climate change threatens olive oil production in the Levant.

The olive tree (Olea europaea L.) is one of the species best adapted to a Mediterranean-type climate1-8. Nonetheless, the Mediterranean Basin is deemed to be a climate change 'hotspot' by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change9,10 because future model projections suggest considerable warming and drying11,12. Within this context, new environmental challenges will arise in the coming decades, which will both weaken and threaten olive-growing areas, leading to a loss of productivity and changes in fruit and oil quality13-15. Olive growing, a core of the Mediterranean economy, might soon be under stress. To probe the link between climate and olive trees, we here report 5,400 years of olive tree dynamics from the ancient city of Tyre, Lebanon. We show that optimal fruiting scales closely with temperature. Present-day and palaeo data define an optimal annual average temperature of 16.9 ± 0.3 °C for olive flowering that has existed at least since the Neolithic period. According to our projections, during the second half of the twenty-first century, temperature increases in Lebanon will have detrimental consequences on olive tree growth and olive oil production, especially in the country's southern regions, which will become too hot for optimal flowering and fruiting. These data provide a template to understand present and future thresholds of olive production under climate change.

Fishers who don't fish

AbstractIn 2018, an unprecedented red tide prompted Chile's Ministry of Health to close fisheries throughout the country's southern Aysén Region. The disaster heightened the precarity of “paper fishers,” or those who seldom fish but deftly navigate Chile's neoliberal fisheries management system. Amid the crisis, these fishers performed valuable distributive labor. They connected benefits from transferable fishing quotas to community‐based networks, persuaded officials to recognize additional claimants, and redistributed cash in their communities. This enabled fishers to access public funds when fishing was impossible and strengthened community solidarity in the face of precarity. Yet it also required that claims for financial compensation be legible to state officials, and it prevented political actions that would have disrupted the state‐backed aquaculture industry, despite the latter's contribution to the red tide. Thus, neoliberal distributive programs that depend on the commodification of nature simultaneously benefit rural communities in crisis and facilitate the displacement of beneficiaries.

From strong leadership to active community engagement: Effective resistance to illegal coca crops in Afro-Colombian collective territories.

In this paper, we study whether leadership and community organisation can explain differences in the presence and expansion of coca crops in rural Afro-Colombian collective territories. Following a mixed-method approach that combines the analysis of satellite imagery, semi-structured interviews and household surveys, our results suggest that leadership and community organisation help explain differences in the presence of illegal coca crops by activating pre-existing 'stocks' of social capital that enable rural Afro-Colombian communities in the country's southern Pacific region to resist the penetration and/or expansion of illegal coca crops. Results also show that resistance is more effective when the interests and strategies of leadership and communities are aligned. We argue that the effectiveness and sustainability of resistance depend on: (a) the stock of social capital that determines organisational capabilities, (b) the specific normative content with which this capital is infused, (c) the legitimacy and influence of leadership on the community, and (d) synergies among different levels of grass-root community organisation. We conclude that investing in social capital and community capabilities is thus one way to reorient policy interventions, a goal to which the Colombian state can only partially contribute given its policy priorities and structural limitations.

Evaluating the aptitude of global climate models fromCMIP5andCMIP6in capturing the historical observations of monsoon rainfall over Sudan from 1946 to 2005

AbstractSudan is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change in the African Sahel region. Given the urgent need to understand the potential behaviour of the future climate, this study assessed the skill of 32 global climate models (GCMs) from the fifth (CMIP5) and the sixth (CMIP6) phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) in simulating summer monsoon precipitation over Sudan for the period 1946–2005. The models were ranked based on the Skills Score, estimated using three statistical metrics, correlation coefficient, index of agreement, and normalized root mean square error. The best performing models and their ensembles were used for long‐term trend quantification, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, and assessment of precipitation associations with atmospheric circulation. GISS‐E2‐H, IPSL‐CM5A‐MR, and MPI‐ESM‐LR of CMIP5 and BCC‐CSM2‐MR, INM‐CM4‐8, and MPI‐ESM1‐2‐LR of CMIP6 showed the best performance in Sudan. Instead of August's unimodal peak rainfall, the GCMs, especially the CMIP5 GCMs, showed an unrealistic rainfall peak in May and a shift of the August rainfall peak to September. Only the CMIP6 multi‐model ensemble reliably reproduced the unimodal rainfall property. All models of both phases failed to reconstruct the dominant mode of monsoon precipitation as determined using EOF analysis, particularly in the country's southern parts. The models also failed to reproduce the long‐term rainfall trends in different climate zones. Only MPI‐ESM‐LR (CMIP5) and MPI‐ESM1‐2‐LR (CMIP6) were successful in simulating monsoon rainfall associations with sea surface temperature, El Niño‐Southern Oscillation teleconnection, and winds components at 850 hPa.

THE PHYSIOGRAPHY OF INDIA: AN OVERVIEW

Physiography is a field of geography that studies the physical patterns and processes of the Earth, such as geomorphology, hydrology, soil, rocks, biogeography, and the effects of tectonic forces on landscapes. This paper aimed to discuss the physiographic characteristics of India due to its diverse geographical features by using a systematic search and collection of publications and secondary data. The characteristics of India's physiography were discussed descriptively and visually. This study highlights the fundamental physiographic divisions, sub-divisions, and socioeconomic functions of each type of terrain in India, including the northern mountain range, northern plains, peninsular plateau, coastal plains, and islands (the eastern and western coastal plains, Andaman and Nicobar islands). This overview concluded that the physiography of India is complex, heterogeneous and could be categorized into four divisions with distinct characteristics. In detail, the Himalayan Range is a mountainous region in the northern part of the country which produced by the fold mountain processes. Meanwhile, the Indo-Gangetic Plain was well recognised for its extensive agricultural activities contributed by the Ganges River. India's diverse landforms had a profound impact on the country's cultural and economical development. On the other hand, this study also demonstrated that the plateau region in the country's southern and central regions was geographically diversified. The different landscapes of India influenced the socioeconomic characteristics of the Indian society and consequently supported national development of India.

Prediction of Indian summer monsoon onset with high resolution model: a case study

India is an agro-based country, receives nearly 80% of the annual rainfall during the summer monsoon season, and has a vital socioeconomic security link. The start of the Indian rainy season is observed over the country's southern tip (Kerala) and is referred to as the monsoon onset. The Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) onset is one of the key aspects and unique for each year. This paper aims the prediction of ISM onset for different years by using the operational numerical weather forecasts at medium-range time scales by using different atmospheric variables from UKMO, and NCMRWF deterministic (NCUM) and ensemble model (NEPS) weather forecasts. For predicting the 2018 onset, we have adopted objective methods like the rainfall criteria, daily circulation index, potential temperature, moisture transport etc. The results for an early onset year (2018) show that the models could predict the onset date agreeing with the observed India Meteorological Department (IMD) onset date of 29 May 2018 from both UKMO 5-day and NCUM 10-day forecasts. This study also emphasizes on the utilization of the medium-range numerical weather forecasts, providing enough time to plan the farming activities. We also present the models’ performance/ skill for assessing the onset dates for the delayed onset (2019) and timely onset (2020) monsoons with NCUM 10-days lead time, and the results agree with IMD dates. From the UKMO, NCUM, NEPS models’ rainfall forecast show that the onset date on 29 May 2018 as IMD. Similarly, the analysis from circulation index, potential temperature, vertically integrated moisture transport analysis, outgoing long wave radiation, tropospheric temperature index clearly shows the onset date agreeing with IMD observations. Similarly, for the late onset (2019) and timely onset (2020) years, the daily circulation index agrees with IMD observed onset dates. Finally, these results from the deterministic and probabilistic forecasts are consistent with the observed onset dates, and these medium range forecasts are highly helpful to compute the monsoon onset date with higher lead times (10 days) within the error of one day.

Risk of foot and mouth disease spread through cattle movements in Uganda.

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is endemic in Uganda, where livestock movements through porous borders and beyond play a key role in the spread of transboundary animal diseases. Data from published and unpublished sources were used to conduct a qualitative risk assessment based on the World Organisation for Animal Health framework to assess the risk of foot and mouth disease virus spread in Uganda through pastoral and trade-related cattle movements from the country's southern border districts. A scenario tree was developed as a conceptual framework, and the risk was assessed by considering factors including the cattle population, proportion of vaccinated cattle, number of live cattle legally moved from districts along the Ugandan-Tanzanian border, the production system in the destination districts and the purpose of the movement. Factors associated with higher risk included live cattle movements for pastoral/grazing and breeding purposes, particularly those towards agro-pastoral (AP) areas, which have the potential to lead to outbreaks on several farms in the destination district and other districts countrywide. Prophylactic vaccination should therefore prioritise districts from which movements of large volumes of cattle to other areas originate and the AP destination districts. Specific awareness campaigns should be conducted in destination districts to improve preventative measures and farm biosecurity levels. This study will inform the revision of the risk-based strategic plan, aimed at reducing FMD impacts in Uganda, as the country progresses along the progressive control pathway for FMD.

Linking agricultural investments to growth and poverty: An economywide approach applied to Mozambique

National agricultural investment plans in developing countries are expected to be evidence-based, reflect broad development processes, and measure contributions to high-level outcomes, such as economic growth and poverty reduction. We propose an economywide systems-approach that combines ex post household econometric analysis (using propensity score matching) of investment impacts with ex ante modeling of growth and poverty linkages (using a spatially-disaggregated dynamic computable general equilibrium model). We apply this approach retrospectively to Mozambique. Simulation results indicate that the country's investment plan from 2012 to 2017 would not achieve national growth targets, despite doubling public spending on agriculture. Rather than increasing spending, the government should have reallocated resources towards agricultural research and extension, instead of irrigation and fertilizer subsidies. Providing extension services to smallholders is most effective at raising growth and reducing poverty in all regions of the country. Investing in irrigation was more likely benefit growth in the country's southern region due to less favorable agroecological conditions. These conclusions are robust across assumptions about investment efficiency. As demonstrated in Mozambique, our approach provides a consistent framework for evaluating ex ante sector-wide agricultural investment plans based on growth, poverty and regional equity considerations. Our approach complements household-level evaluations by enhancing their relevance for national planning.

Freedom, Margins, and Music: Performance as Development Discourse in Nepal

In this article, I examine how the Tharu—one of the largest ethnic minority groups in Nepal, indigenous to the country's southern plains—frame their position as landless, bonded laborers ( kamaiyā ) as a human rights crisis within maghauta nāc competitions. Originally, the maghauta nāc was a participatory song-and-dance genre performed during the festival of Māghī , but the Tharu now widely showcase it in competitions. I argue that the Tharu employ the human rights discourse in their performances to enact social change in their communities and reform their public image, all on their own terms.

Transport accident mortality in Chile: trends from 2000 to 2012.

The aim of this study is to describe the trends of transport accident mortality in Chile from 2000 to 2012 by year, geographic distribution, gender, age group, and type of accident. Population-based study. Data for transport accident mortality in Chile between 2000 and 2012 were used. The crude and adjusted per region transport accident mortality rates were calculated per 100,000 inhabitants. The annual percentage change (APC) of the rates and relative risks (RR) were calculated. The average transport accident mortality rate (TAMR) in Chile (2000-2012) was 12.2. The rates were greater in men (19.7) than in women (4.8), with a RR of 4.1. The rates were higher in the country's southern zone (15.9), increasing in recent years in the southern zone, with a significant positive APC in the northern and central zones. The Maule region had the highest rate (21.1), although Coquimbo was the region with the most significant APC (2.2%). The highest rate (20.3) was verified in the 25-40 age group. The highest rate (14.3) was recorded in 2008. The most frequent type of accident was pedestrian. In general the APC trends of the rates are increasing significantly. This, added to rapid annual automotive growth, will only exacerbate mortality due to transport accidents.

School Distribution as Keep-Up Strategy to Maintain Universal Coverage of Long-Lasting Insecticidal Nets: Implementation and Results of a Program in Southern Tanzania.

Tanzania successfully scaled up coverage of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) through mass campaigns. To sustain these gains, a school-based approach was piloted in the country's Southern Zone starting in 2013, called the School Net Program 1 (SNP1). We report on the design, implementation, monitoring, and outputs of the second round (SNP2) undertaken in 2014. SNP2 was conducted in all schools in Lindi, Mtwara, and Ruvuma regions, targeting students in primary (Standards 1, 3, 5, and 7) and secondary (Forms 2 and 4) schools and all teachers. In Lindi region, 2 additional classes (Standards 2 and 4) were targeted. LLIN distribution data were managed using an Android software application called SchoolNet. SNP2 included 2,337 schools, 473,700 students, and 25,269 teachers. A total of 5,070 people were trained in LLIN distribution (487 trainers and 4,583 distributors), and 4,392 (434 ward and 3,958 village) community change agents undertook sensitization and mobilization. A total of 507,775 LLINs were distributed to schools, with 464,510 (97.9% of those registered) students and 24,206 (95.8% of those registered) school teachers receiving LLINs. LLIN ownership and use is expected to have increased, potentially further reducing the burden of malaria in the Southern Zone of Tanzania.

Tendência da mortalidade por causas relacionadas à influenza em idosos no Brasil e evidências de plausibilidade de impacto da vacinação, 1992-2005

OBJECTIVE:to describe trends in mortality from influenza-related respiratory diseases in the elderly comparing the periods before and after the annual influenza vaccination campaigns.METHODS:a time-series ecological study using data from the Mortality Information System on deaths among the elderly between 1992 and 2005 where the underlying cause was: pneumonia, influenza, bronchitis and chronic airway obstruction. Analysis performed by linear regression adjusting the historical trend and seasonality.RESULTS:we identified a statistically significant reduction of specific mortality rates in the period after vaccination campaign implementation among the elderly in Brazil as a whole and in the country's Southern, Southeastern and Midwestern regions, and in all age subgroups studied in Brazil and its Southeastern region.CONCLUSION:the results show evidence of the plausibility of a possible protective effect of influenza vaccination campaigns in reducing elderly mortality from respiratory diseases.

Why a governance perspective could contribute to improving drug policy and engaging the international development community: Lessons from Colombia

In this paper, we study whether leadership and community organisation can explain differences in the presence and expansion of coca crops in rural Afro-Colombian collective territories. Following a mixed-method approach that combines the analysis of satellite imagery, semi-structured interviews and household surveys, our results suggest that leadership and community organisation help explain differences in the presence of illegal coca crops by activating pre-existing ‘stocks’ of social capital that enable rural Afro-Colombian communities in the country's southern Pacific region to resist the penetration and/or expansion of illegal coca crops. Results also show that resistance is more effective when the interests and strategies of leadership and communities are aligned. We argue that the effectiveness and sustainability of resistance depend on: (a) the stock of social capital that determines organisational capabilities, (b) the specific normative content with which this capital is infused, (c) the legitimacy and influence of leadership on the community, and (d) synergies among different levels of grass-root community organisation. We conclude that investing in social capital and community capabilities is thus one way to reorient policy interventions, a goal to which the Colombian state can only partially contribute given its policy priorities and structural limitations.

The Role of Urbanity, Status, and Identity on Migrant Remittance Management and Rural Development Potentials in Thailand

The Thai government has utilized various development initiatives to expand infrastructure, improve local services, and reduce poverty in the country's northern, northeastern, and southern regions. However, relative to the central region, which is dominated by Bangkok and its extended metropolitan zone, these regions have lagged in economic growth and infrastructural improvements. As a result, rural-urban migration notably from the north and northeast has continued into Bangkok. Migration scholars have proposed that in such high migration contexts, remittances may further local development in origin communities, overtime reducing structural and socioeconomic inequalities at regional and local levels. This study draws from ethnographic data collected in Thailand since 2009 to examine how respondents' subjectivities and socioeconomic backgrounds affect the management of remunerations and the degree and volume to which remittances flow to origin communities. Previous work has examined education, gender, or so...

Human Trafficking in the Southern Kyrgyz Republic

This report was prepared on the basis of a sociological study conducted in three southern oblasts of Kyrgyzstan (Osh, Batken, Jalalabad, and Osh City) from June to October 2011. The work is presented by Alina Tashybaeva, an independent expert on human trafficking (HT). The study was conducted in partnership and with the support of the Osh field office of the OSCE and the OSCE Centre in Bishkek as part of the project “Preventing HT in Southern Kyrgyzstan in the Wake of the Events of June 2010,” implemented by the Non-Governmental Organisation (NGO) Golden Goal (GG). This study reflects the current HT situation in the southern region of the country as well as an analysis of the primary factors contributing to an increase in the local population's vulnerability to the risks of the slave trade. During the course of the study, sociological surveys were conducted among both the country's southern population and experts (local government representatives, NGOs, and others). Results from this study can be used for research purposes in this field, and may be of interest for national and local government agencies, non-governmental structures, and international organisations whose work is related to the prevention of HT.