ABSTRACT The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has diverse effects on the interannual variability of river flows in Colombia. Given that 70% of the country's electricity supply is provided by hydroelectric dams located in different regions and operated by different companies linked by a nationally integrated system, the decisions taken by operators in response to ENSO can be just as varied. The present study investigates the spatial and temporal distribution of the ENSO effects in four case studies, its relation to hydropower generation and prices, and assesses the reliability of global ENSO indices for monitoring and anticipating local effects. The results show ENSO-driven variations in streamflow and precipitation in all cases, but their intensity and duration are highly dependent on location. La Niña led to positive precipitation and stream flow anomalies, while El Niño led to negative anomalies. In two dams, Hidrosogamoso and Betania, the ENSO influence is stronger, and has a higher correlation with reservoir operations with lags greater than one month. Urra has more stationary annual operations given the reduced ENSO effects in the reservoir’s basin. On the whole, ENSO indices are insufficient in describing the local variations completely. And operator’s size, market share, and installed capacity contribute to increasing flexibility in operations while facing ENSO challenges.
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