Economic Performance Of Country Research Articles

Export Commodity Price Forecasting in Indonesia Using Decision Tree, Random Forest, and Long Short-Term Memory

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is an indicator that becomes a benchmark for a country's economic performance. One of the factors that significantly affect GDP is export activity. However, the problem that occurs is that the export value is relatively fluctuating, this is because commodity prices are always changing every time. Therefore, we need a system that can predict commodity prices accurately. It is hoped that this system can help the government to make appropriate export policies based on predictions of commodity prices in the future. The contribution of this study is to compare Decision Tree, Random Forest, and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) performance in forecasting several export commodities in Indonesia. In this study, the commodities forecasted are the main commodities from each sector that dominates exports in Indonesia, namely palm oil from the manufacturing sector, coffee from the agricultural sector, and coal from the mining sector. The experiments in this study were conducted by testing several hyperparameters of each method to determine the best model. The performance of models is measured using Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results show that LSTM has the lowest error among Decision Tree and Random Forest with MAPE of 0.121, 0.494, and 0.282 in forecasting coal, coffee, and palm oil price respectively. Therefore, LSTM has proven to be the best method among Random Forest and Decision Tree in forecasting export commodity prices in Indonesia.

The effect of a currency board arrangement on subjective assessments of a country's economic performance

We present a novel approach to evaluating the effect of a monetary exchange rate regime on economic performance, focusing on countries with a currency board arrangement (CBA). This approach is designed to evaluate the impact of the regime on the perceptions and expectations of a population. We utilise seemingly unrelated regressions to analyse data from large-sample surveys conducted by the Austrian National Bank over the period 2007-2016 in ten European transition economies. The analysis indicates that the probability of the economic situation in a country being perceived as good by its citizens is lower in countries with a currency board arrangement. However, this negative effect almost disappears among respondents who do not trust their government and when there is a significant recession in the country. These findings suggest that a CBA should be maintained for its stabilising effects: 1) when the economic situation is unfavourable, although it might not be beneficial once the situation is stabilised; 2) in countries with low levels of trust in government.

Efekti problematičnih kredita na profitabilnost banaka tokom KOVID-19 pandemije - slučaj Republike Srbije

During the pandemic caused by the new SARS-COV2 virus, the country's economic performance is lower than before the health crisis. The global health crisis has directly and indirectly affected the economic and financial indicators of almost all countries. Regardless of state financial aid, which inevitably prevented the collapse of the national economy and financial markets, certain economic sectors are still facing the consequences of the crisis. One of the reasons for the lower financial performance of countries in this period is the insufficient readiness of banks to deal with non-profitable loans. This study aims to consider the profitability of the banking sector concerning non-profitable loans in Serbia during the pandemic, using the methods of description, deduction, and regression. In addition, a comparison method was used to assess the ability of banks to deal with non-profitable loans during the previous global financial crisis. For statistical data processing, the official data of the National Bank of Serbia was extracted from the statistical section, as well as from annual and periodic reports. A linear regression model was used to measure the effect of the NPL on the banks' profitability in the period 2008-2021, after the regression assumptions had been successfully tested (such sample adequacy, distribution symmetry, and multicollinearity). Non-profitable loans, income from interest, ROA, and ROE are the variables used in regression modelling. The results showed that non-profitable loans do not have a statistically significant effect on banks' profitability.

THE TAX COMPETITION AMONG EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

Background: Taxes are and form the necessary basis for any form of organization in human society. Aims: The aim of the paper is to quantify the outputs of the tax competition among European countries. Specifically, we focus on studying the International Tax Competitiveness Index (ITCI) in the European area and on assessing how this aspect is time dependent. First, we try to find out whether there is a statistically significant relationship in the overall ranking within the ITCI of the surveyed European countries in time. Besides that, we try to confirm whether if the country is at the forefront within the GDP per capita, this country will also be at the forefront of the ITCI. Sample: The research sample consists of 27 European countries, for which the overall ranking of the ITCI and GDP per capita (by purchasing power parity (PPP)) were available from 2014 to 2020. Methods: We use the Spearman correlation coefficient, Sign test, and Wilcoxon Matched Pairs Test to verify the hypotheses. Results: The results show that variations in the country's level of ITCI change only slowly over time, and it is hard to modify them significantly. Moreover, we present the ranking of European countries within ITCI in 2014-2020 and the ranking within the level of GDP per capita (by PPP). Conclusions: We can confirm the assumption that if the country is at the forefront of the ITCI, this country will be located at the forefront of the GDP per capita (by PPP) indicator. Implications: The country's tax system is an important determinant of the country's economic performance.

Revisiting the importance of forest rents, oil rents, green growth in economic performance of China: Employing time series methods

The issue of environmental quality with natural resource extraction and excessive carbon emissions is often linked to economic growth. Still, the existing literature is ambiguous due to contradictory evidence concerning the nexus of natural resources, green growth, and economic performance. This study tends to provide a clear picture of the said nexus in the case of China from 1990 to 2020. Using advanced time series approaches, this study finds that all the variables are I(1) stationary, and the cointegration association is valid in the long run. Considering the variable's asymmetrical distribution, this study employed the novel method of moment quantile regression (MMQR). The empirical estimate of the study reveals that natural resources (such as forest rents and oil rents) and green growth adversely affect economic performance, which validates the natural resource curse in the country. The influence of green growth and forest rents is significant, but the oil rents are insignificant. However, carbon emissions positively impact the country's economic performance in the long run. The results are robust and more significant after the robustness test of bootstrap quantile regression. Based on the results obtained, this study suggests increasing investment in environmentally friendly resources to reduce natural resource dependence and negative externalities.

Economic Performance and Stock Market Integration in BRICS and G7 Countries: An Application with Quantile Panel Data and Random Coefficients Modeling

The interest in studies aimed at understanding the integration of the stock market with the economic performance of countries has been growing in recent years, perhaps driven by the recent economic crises faced by the world. Although several studies on the topic have been carried out, the results are still far from a meaningful conclusion. In this sense, this paper considered the dual objective of investigating whether there is significant variance in the economic performance of developed and emerging markets’ countries and whether the global risk factors are statistically significant in explaining the variations in their future economic performance over time. From a sample of (i) gross domestic products from BRICS and G7 countries (total of twelve countries), and (ii) returns of the risk factors of developed and emerging stock markets for the period 1993 to 2019, we applied longitudinal regression modeling for five distinct percentiles, and random coefficients modeling (RCM) with repeated measures. We found that risk factors explain the future economic performance, there is significant variation in economic performance over time among countries, and the temporal variation in the random effects of intercepts can be explained by RCM. The results of this study confirm that stock markets follow an integration process and that moderately integrated markets may have the same risk factors. Furthermore, considering that risk factors are related to future GDP growth, they act as proxies for unidentified state variables.

FDI Led Growth Hypothesis and Export Led Growth Hypothesis in ASEAN

Economic growth is a macroeconomic variable that is always the government's attention. This is because economic growth is an indicator of a country's economic performance. If economic growth grows high, then economic development goes well, so that people are more prosperous. This study aims to examine and analyze the role of FDI and exports on economic growth in ASEAN. The research method used is a causality panel with a research period of 2010-2020. The causality panel used in this study detects how the relationship between FDI, exports, and economic growth in ASEAN is. The estimation results show a unidirectional relationship between FDI to economic growth, and exports to economic growth. Therefore, the hypothesis of FDI led growth and export-led growth is acceptable. The recommendation given to each country is that it is hoped that the governments of the ASEAN region will further facilitate foreign investment permits by means of deregulation that makes it difficult for foreign investors. Recommendations related to exports are that the governments of each ASEAN country need to map out potential and non-potential exports, if potential exports are increased, while non-potential ones need to be innovated.

The economic cost of environmental laws: Volatility transmission mechanism and remedies

Since the last three decades, the world has faced many changes that exhibit significant influence on natural resources, environmental laws, and the economic performance of various countries and regions. As the most developed country in the World, any policy adaptation of implementation in the US could influence the policies of other countries and regions. However, several factors could affect the country's economic performance, yet unexplored empirically, but are important from policy perspectives, which motivates this study. Therefore, the current study investigates the US's environmental laws, natural resource volatility, and economic performance from 1990 to 2020. The study used a novel wavelet methodology that considers wavelet power spectrum and wavelet coherence and provides short- and long-run estimates. The empirical results of the wavelet power spectrum reveal that environmental policy stringency and natural resource rents (total natural resource rents, natural gas rents, oil rents) are vulnerable in the selected time period. Additionally, the wavelet coherence empirically reports that there is a bidirectional causal association between environmental policy stringency, total natural resource rents, oil rents, and economic performance. In the short-run, the causality has been observed from these variables to economic performance, while from economic performance to these variables in the long run. Moreover, a unidirectional causal association runs from economic performance to natural gas rents. This study recommends strengthening environmental policy stringency and natural resources hedging to encourage economic performance and environmental sustainability.

Üniversite Sıralamaları ile Ülkelerin Ekonomik Performansı Arasındaki İlişkinin İncelenmesi

The main objective of this study is to examine the correlation between university rankings and the economic performance of countries, if university rankings are used as a proxy for the quality of higher education. The findings indicate that there is a correlation between the GDP (or the size of the country’s economy) and the number of universities in the top 500, but there is no correlation between the employment rate and the number of universities in the top 500 by the year of 2019. Hence, the results imply that GDP value rather than the employment rate of countries has an impact on university rankings (or the quality of higher education). Since it is thought that countries with higher or better levels of education, both in terms of quantity and quality, will also have stronger economic growth, the findings of this study could help policymakers make decisions about higher education and the economy.

A nonparametric approach to understanding poverty in the Philippines: Evidence from the Family Income and Expenditure Survey

en

Innovation, Entrepreneurship and their effect on Economic growth

This research paper aims to investigate innovation and entrepreneurship as two concepts that have spread in the recent period and to show the relationship between them. This study is based on the descriptive approach to achieve the objectives of the study, as through a review of previous studies and articles in this regard, I tried to provide a simplified definition of the terms “innovation and entrepreneurship”, and then clarify the relationship between them and their types according to recent studies, so that the matter does not get mixed up. As is common, the impact of each of them on the economy has been determined. The review of selected previous studies showed that the concept of innovation and entrepreneurship did not take a sufficient percentage of studies and research, so related topics were added to stimulate work on them in the future. The results of the research indicated that entrepreneurship and innovation have an important impact on the economic performance of countries. This study recommends that innovation and entrepreneurship should be given greater attention by policy makers in countries, especially in Arab countries.

Monoclonal antibodies and Fc-fusion protein biologic medicines: A multinational cross-sectional investigation of accessibility and affordability in Asia Pacific regions between 2010 and 2020

SummaryBackgroundMonoclonal antibody (mAb) and Fc-fusion protein (FcP) are highly effective therapeutic biologics. We aimed to analyse consumption and expenditure trends in 14 Asia-Pacific countries/regions (APAC) and three benchmark countries (the UK, Canada, and the US).MethodsWe analysed 440 mAb and FcP biological products using the IQVIA-MIDAS global sales database. For each year between 2010 and 2020 inclusive, we used standard units (SU) sold per 1000 population and manufacture level price (standardised in 2019 US dollars) to evaluate consumption (accessibility) and expenditure (affordability). Changes of consumption and expenditure were estimated using compound annual growth rate (CAGR). Correlations between consumption, country's economic and health performance indicators were measured using Spearman correlation coefficient.FindingsBetween 2010 and 2020, CAGRs of consumption in each region ranged from 7% to 34% and the CAGRs of expenditure ranged from 9% to 31%. The median consumption of biologics was extremely low in lower-middle-income economies (0·29 SU/1000 population) compared with upper-middle-income economies (1·20), high-income economies (40·94) and benchmark countries (109·55), although the median CAGRs of biologics consumption in lower-middle-income economies (31%) was greater than upper-middle-income (14%), high-income economies (13%) and benchmark countries (9%). Consumption was correlated with GDP per capita [Spearman's rank correlation coefficient (r) = 0·75, p < 0·001], health expenditure as a percentage of total (r = 0·83, p < 0·001) and medical doctors’ density (r = 0·85, p < 0·001).InterpretationThere have been significant increases in mAb and FcP biologics consumption and expenditure, however accessibility of biological medicines remains unequal and is largely correlated with country's income level.FundingThis research was funded by NHMRC Project Grant GNT1157506 and GNT1196900; Enhanced Start-up Fund for new academic staff and Internal Research Fund, Department of Medicine, LKS Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong.

Beyond religion and culture: The economic consequences of the institutionalization of sharia law

Religious and cultural practices have major implications for a Country's economic performance. However, it is not clear if the formal institutionalization of these social norms within a country's legal system causes material economic effects. In this study I show this to be the case. By employing the synthetic control methodology to mitigate endogeneity concerns, I show that the institutionalization of Sharia Law within a Muslim-majority country's legal system causes material economic costs. Results hold in different settings, confirming that the governmental enforcement of existing social norms constrain individuals' social and economic freedom, ultimately resulting in worsened economic outcomes.

Human Health Risk Assessment of Heavy Metal Contamination in an Artisanal Gold Mining Community of Kogi State, Nigeria

Artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) is known to improve the standard of living in the host communities and economic performance of countries involved. However, despite the positive impact on the economy, ASGM is a significant point source of uncontrolled mobilization of hazardous chemicals, notably heavy metals into the environmental media such as soil, air and water. This study assessed human health risk of exposure to heavy metals in soil around artisanal gold mining in Ike community of Kogi State. Twelve (12) soil samples obtained from the gold mining area were analysed for heavy metals (As, Cd, Ni, Pb and Zn) using Atomic Absorption Spectrometry (AAS). Measured concentrations of these metals were used to calculate health risk of children and adults using health risk assessment models. The results showed that mean values of heavy metal concentrations in the soil reflected low metal load (&lt;1) with decreasing order of As&gt;Pb&gt;Zn&gt;Ni&gt;Cd. The results obtained from analysis of non-carcinogenic risk demonstrated that hazard index values of various heavy metals for three exposure pathways (ingestion, dermal and inhalational) were &lt; 1 for children and adults populations. However, As recorded hazard index values &gt; 1 for ingestion pathway for both populations. It was found that As recorded carcinogenic risk of 1.85E-03 for children and 9.86E-04 for adults and Cd recorded 4.67E-04 for children. These values exceeded the safety limit, ranging from 1E-06 to 1E-04, as stated by US Environmental Protection Agency. The study showed that As might pose carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks for both populations. Also, Cd might pose carcinogenic risk for children. Hence, As and Cd would be regarded as elements of serious concern in the study area.

The effects of gender equality on economic development in Europe

Gender equality is increasingly perceived as a central issue and discussed as an essential factor for competition, economic growth and solidarity in society. The starting point of this study is the identification of the main factors influenced by gender equality in the context of the economic performance of countries. Europe was chosen as the study area, with regional differences between Northern, Western/Central, Southern and Eastern Europe also being taken into account. The empirical analysis is based on panel regression models. These confirm that policies designed to increase the share of women in leadership positions and to achieve an equal representation of self-employed women and men have a significant positive impact on a country's economic performance across Europe. In addition, differentiated recommendations for action are derived from the results for the individual subregions.

Pulling Off Stable Economic System Adhering Carbon Emissions, Urban Development and Sustainable Development Values.

In today's world, sustainability has become a major concern. The current study attempts to look into the impact of six sustainable development values on economic growth and emissions of carbon footprints: freedom, equality, solidarity, tolerance, respect for nature, and shared mobility. The moderating importance of urban development in regulating the relationship of economic growth and carbon footprints has also been investigated in this study. The structural equation modeling (SEM) analysis technique was utilized to confirm pathways and verify path modeling in this work. Overall, 302 responses were selected for data analysis, and data were collected using a self-administered questionnaire with a random sampling technique. The study found that two of the six sustainable development values (tolerance and solidarity) have a beneficial impact on a country's economic growth. However, freedom, equality, respect for nature, and shared mobility are not indicators of a country's economic progress. Similarly, economic expansion helps to mediate the relationship between tolerance, solidarity, and carbon emissions. Although urban growth did not play a moderating role, it has a positive impact on carbon emissions. The current study suggests various implications for long-term development to improve an economy's or country's economic performance. Furthermore, complete emphasis must be paid to sustainable development values, which are more closely linked to economic growth but also help cut carbon emissions. Future research should look into the current model in other countries.

Should Hungary Pay More for a QALY Gain than Higher-Income Western European Countries?

ObjectivesCost-effectiveness thresholds (CETs) play a particularly important role in the reimbursement decisions of health technologies in countries with limited healthcare resources. Our goal is to develop a scientifically solid proposal for a revised cost-effectiveness threshold, as part of the planned review of the Hungarian health economic guidance.MethodsThe Threshold Working Group of the Hungarian Health Economics Association performed a targeted review on CETs in European countries. International trends on CETs served as a basis for our recommendation, which was discussed at the Association’s workshop and deliberated at an expert committee meeting with representatives from the national health technology assessment (HTA) and healthcare payer bodies, and academic HTA centres.ResultsThe current Hungarian CET is one of the highest among European countries relative to GDP per capita, and even higher in nominal value than the CET applied by NICE. As opposed to the current, single Hungarian threshold, other European countries apply multiple thresholds. The Working Group recommends that Hungary should also apply multiple CETs in the range of 1.5–3 times GDP per capita with stratification according to the relative quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gain of the new technology. In addition, multiple CETs in the range of 3–10 times GDP per capita is recommended for technologies in rare diseases.ConclusionsCETs should be aligned with the country’s economic performance and should reflect societal preferences. Our recommendation may increase the efficiency of healthcare resource allocation in Hungary by strengthening the role of HTA in the reimbursement decisions and favouring new technologies with higher QALY gain.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40258-021-00710-z.

The Relationship between Population Growth and Economic Growth: The Case of Singapore

Population growth has an important impact on the economic performance of countries. However, there is no consensus on the direction of the impact in question. Therefore, the relationship between population growth and economic growth is still in debate in the literature. In this context, the aim of this study is to empirically examine whether there is a relationship between population growth and economic growth in Singapore using annual data for the period of 1970-2020. In order to achieve this goal, first of all, ADF and PP unit root tests were performed. Then, Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test was applied to investigate the causal relationship between the variables. According to the empirical findings of the study, there is a unidirectional Granger causality relationship from population growth to economic growth.

The impact of downsizing protected areas: How a misguided policy may enhance landscape fragmentation and biodiversity loss

Brazilian biodiversity is undergoing numerous attacks and misguided policies that aim to reduce protected areas (PAs) with the main argument of expanding agribusiness to improve the country's economic performance. An example is the draft law (DL) 527/2016, which aimed to reduce approximately 70% of the Devonian Escarpment Environmental Protection Area (DEEPA), a large PA in southern Brazil, hosts two biodiversity hotspot biomes. This study shows the possible downsizing damages to biodiversity and landscape by quantifying the size and connectivity of the vegetation remnants in the surrounding landscape concerning the degree of threat to the species that occur in both the Atlantic Forest and Brazilian Savanna domains. The DEEPA downsizing can affect natural savanna and Atlantic Forest vegetation area proposed by DL 527/2016 would fail in protecting 383 (56.82%) of the threatened species. Only three species evaluated as critically endangered, 13 classified as endangered, and 13 classified as vulnerable would be preserved; the reduction would also negatively affect essential ecosystem services and the quality of life in human populations. Furthermore, man-made fragmentation and habitat loss would jeopardize several biological and ecological aspects fundamental to biomes' maintenance and ecosystem services. In addition to reducing this environmental protection area, it would cut taxes from the current PA and could affect its surrounding municipalities in southern Brazil.

Economic crisis, COVID-19 pandemic, and the Greek model of capitalism

In this paper, we use varieties of capitalism as an analytical tool to understand the main characteristics of the Greek model of capitalism. The main purpose of this paper is twofold: first, to study the evolution of the country's economic performance through the theoretical approach of varieties of capitalism; second, highlighting the performance of institutions to understand how the main characteristics of the Greek model of capitalism have been changed during last years. The main questions of the article are: How the Greek model of capitalism affected not only the institutional but also the economic performance in Greece? Does the COVID-19 pandemic influence the model of capitalism in Greece? By applying the principles of the comparative political economy, we will be able to draw conclusions regarding the institutional performance in Greece and the characteristics of the Greek model of capitalism. As we will argue, the Greek model of capitalism was shaped by the power of ideas of country's political leaders since 1980s. These ideas influenced the characteristics of the Greek model of capitalism creating a rather exceptional institutional framework unable to support long- run economic growth in the country. This exceptionalism is associated with an institutional asymmetry in relation with other member states and characterizes the Greek model of capitalism not only as the main cause for the economic crisis, but also as a significant obstacle to any recovery efforts, especially during COVID-19 pandemic.