Country Risk Premium Research Articles

Cost of Capital in the Energy Sector, in Emerging Markets, the Case of a Dollarized Economy

This article estimates the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) for the energy sector in Ecuador, a country with a dollarized economy and illiquid stock markets. Thus, reference companies in the region were taken, and at the same time combined with characteristics of national companies, establishing a useful methodology, which makes sense with the acceptable discount rates in the Ecuadorian economy. For the above, four estimation alternatives were used. In method one, the traditional WACC formula was applied using interest rates and risk premiums from the U.S. market, which resulted in an overestimation due to the double penalty of the country risk and the U.S. market premium. Method two adjusted the market risk premium to consider only the Ecuador-specific risk premium, thus avoiding the double penalty. In method three, the credit default swap (CDS) was used to calculate the country risk premium, and the CDS was excluded from the nominal interest rate, avoiding redundancies. Finally, method four combined the U.S. interest rate with the CDS directly to calculate the market risk premium, more accurately reflecting local economic conditions in a dollarized economy. The WACC results range from 12.63% to 29.70%. In addition, a dummy variable was controlled for during the pandemic period. This article highlights the need for methodologies adapted to emerging markets, since traditional approaches would overestimate the WACC.

The Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate of the Czech Koruna – the BEER Approach

The aim of this paper is to develop a model of the real equilibrium CZK/EUR exchange rate with all relevant explanatory variables. Emphasis will be placed on examining the longest possible time horizon, with a period of real convergence, but also economic stagnation. The model is based on the theoretical BEER approach using a cointegration or error correction model that distinguishes between short-term and long-term relationships. The results show that the Czech koruna strengthens when the productivity differential, terms of trade differential or gross fixed capital formation increase, while the koruna weakens when the VIX index representing global risk aversion increases. For the real interest rate differential, the hypothesis that the koruna strengthens in the short run during the improvement but weakens in the long run probably due to the country's risk premium, was confirmed. Moreover, it turned out that the start of the European Central Bank's quantitative easing led to strengthening of the Czech koruna, while the start of the CNB's foreign exchange interventions in 2013 led to weakening of the Czech koruna.

Cross-border sovereign risk transmission in BRICIT Nations: Unveiling asymmetries and the role of country risk premiums

This research highlights the asymmetric interdependence structure among the sovereign risks of Brazil, Russia, India, China, Indonesia, and Türkiye (BRICIT) nations, challenging the traditional view that bilateral trade is the main channel for cross-border spillover effects. Despite their dependence on Russian crude oil imports for energy, the BRICIT nations show no significant sovereign risk interdependence with Russia. The study finds that Indonesia's credit default swap (CDS) has the highest level of interdependence with other nations. Further exploration of alternative transmission channels necessitates an examination of the country risk premium, revealing Türkiye as the most vulnerable nation due to its negative association with the CDS of other countries, particularly India. By contrast, India is identified as a preferred investment destination, thanks to its lower uncertainty and strong GDP growth over the past decade. Additionally, the research underscores China's economic influence, demonstrated by its positive association with all other BRICIT nations. This suggests that despite the high sovereign risk associated with China, investors do not view other emerging markets as viable, lower-risk alternatives. The perceived risk related to China appears to extend beyond its borders, impacting the sovereign risk profiles of other emerging economies.

Should Developed Economies Manage International Capital Flows? An Empirical and Welfare Analysis*

The literature on the effects of country risk premium shocks has largely focused on emerging market economies. We empirically show that in developed economies, risk premium shocks explain a non‐trivial share of aggregate fluctuations and are key drivers of real activity during crises. Our empirical results and results from a two‐country New Keynesian model indicate that an increase in the risk premium leads to a reduction in aggregate output under monetary union, but not so in countries with flexible exchange rates and independent monetary policy. Model simulations suggest that managing international capital flows enhances welfare in countries under monetary union.

Capital Control Taxes in an Emerging Market Economy

Historically, Emerging Markets (EMs) that own foreign debt and exhibit a high degree of dollarization have demonstrated vulnerability to a range of both real and financial shocks. Governments often use a range of capital control measures, particularly in nations burdened with external debt, with the aim of mitigating sudden swings in both inflows and outflows of capital. These policies are implemented to lessen exchange rate volatility and prevent dollarization. This study employs second moments analysis, impulse response functions and the welfare analysis to investigate the impact of a tax policy that restricts international capital flows on several macroeconomic variables in an emerging economy. A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model is employed to examine the impact of the tax imposed on foreign borrowing on the economy, including both real shocks such as technology and growth, as well as financial shocks such as country risk premium. The findings of the study indicate that capital control taxes have a diminishing effect on the variability of significant macroeconomic variables, such as investment and consumption, when imposed at lower levels. Conversely, these taxes exhibit a stabilizing impact on the volatility of the trade balance-to-output ratio when implemented at higher levels. Moreover, quantitative evidence reveals that country risk premium shocks exert a substantial influence on variations in both the trade balance-to-output ratio and the level of investment, accounting for around 25% and 50% of the fluctuations, respectively. Finally, the existence of such a taxation enhances the intertemporal utility function at the steady state and reduces its volatility in the case of technology and growth shocks.

Commodity cycles and financial instability in emerging economies

Commodity-exporting economies display procyclicality with the price of commodity exports. However, the evidence for the relative importance of commodity price shocks for aggregate fluctuations remains inconclusive. Using Russian data from 2001 to 2018 we estimate a small open economy New Keynesian model with a banking system and leveraged domestic firms who default on their unsecured domestic debt. We show that allowing default rates to vary endogenously over the business cycle amplifies the estimated contribution of commodity price shocks. Endogenous default introduces time-varying wedges that amplify the response of commodity price shocks through demand and income effects rather than the relative price effects that are found in the country risk-premium, balance sheet, and financial accelerator channels. We find that the contribution of commodity prices to explaining fluctuations in GDP rises from 2.5 to 33.6% while for deposits and non-performing loans, it increases from 5.3% and 1.6% to 71.3% and 60.4%, respectively.

Macro and Micro Factor Influencing Tech Startup Valuation of Private Markets in ASEAN Countries

Startups in ASEAN countries, including Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, and the Philippines, have grown rapidly over the past five years. However, the current global economic uncertainty has created an imbalance that affects the budding startup ecosystem in ASEAN. A study used econometrics software and secondary data to understand how macroeconomic factors like GDP growth, country risk premium, and initial capital increases affect startup valuations in private markets in these six ASEAN member countries. Seventy-two sample data from deals between 2020 and 2022 were analyzed using various quantitative methods, such as panel data testing, T-test, and F-test. The findings indicate that the amount of money collected and the country's risk premium significantly affect startup valuations in these six member countries. However, GDP growth does not have a statistically significant effect. The F-Test shows that the Average Money Raised, the Country's Risk Premium, and GDP Growth all significantly affect startup valuations in the private markets of these six ASEAN member countries when analyzed simultaneously. The T-test reveals that the Average Money Raised is the most significant independent variable. Therefore, investors should continue fundraising, and the government should create a favorable business environment for startups and themselves. These findings could help stakeholders interested in technological investments to evaluate strategic investment in private markets in Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, and the Philippines. It could also help academics analyze and understand "Factors Influencing Startups Valuation in Private Markets" and assist other researchers in further developing this study.

Monetary policy in practice: do central banks respond to movements in exchange rate and credit growth?

PurposeThis study examines the importance of exchange rate and credit growth fluctuations when designing monetary policy in Thailand. To this end, the authors construct a small open economy New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. The model encompasses several essential characteristics, including incomplete financial markets, incomplete exchange rate pass-through, deviations from the law of one price and a banking sector. The authors consider generalized Taylor rules, in which policymakers adjust policy rates in response to output, inflation, credit growth and exchange rate fluctuations. The marginal likelihoods are then employed to investigate whether the central bank responds to fluctuations in the exchange rate and credit growth.Design/methodology/approach This study constructs a small open economy DSGE model and then estimates the model using Bayesian methods.Findings The authors demonstrate that the monetary authority does target exchange rates, whereas there is no evidence in favor of incorporating credit growth into the policy rules. These findings survive various robustness checks. Furthermore, the authors demonstrate that domestic shocks contribute significantly to domestic business cycles. Although the terms of trade shock plays a minor role in business cycles, it explains the most significant proportion of exchange rate fluctuations, followed by the country risk premium shock.Originality/value This study is the first attempt at exploring the relevance of exchange rate and credit growth fluctuations when designing monetary policy in Thailand.

Country Risk Premium as an Indicator of Investment Attractiveness (Case of Republic of Belarus)

Country Risk Premium as an Indicator of Investment Attractiveness (Case of Republic of Belarus)

ЭКОНОМЕТРИЧЕСКАЯ МОДЕЛЬ ОПРЕДЕЛЕНИЯ ПРЕМИИ ЗА СТРАНОВОЙ РИСК ДЛЯ ЦЕЛЕЙ ПРИМЕНЕНИЯ В МОДЕЛИ CAPM

The value of the country risk premium is a wellknown component of the CAPM model used to determine the level of required return on assets by investors. Due to the events of recent years that have dramatically affected the global and domestic markets, the correct calculation of this premium requires, in addition to the classically accepted methods, consideration of alternatives, one of which can be a calculation using econometric modeling tools, which allows, based on the processing of quantitative data, to find relationships between various factors affecting the object of research. The authors have constructed an econometric model that reveals the dependence of the risk premium on the selected set of factors. The model was tested to fulfill the prerequisites of the GaussMarkov theorem for further practical application. In conclusion, conclusions are formulated based on the results obtained, which can be useful both for interested persons in the field of studying corporate finance and financial markets, and institutional state regulatory bodies.

AGRO-INDUSTRIAL COMPANIES’ CAPITAL COST AND STRUCTURE

The article presents a study on the assessment of the structure and cost of capital of enterprises in the agrarian sector of the Ukrainian economy. It was found that the problem of optimising the capital structure in order to minimise its cost and ensure financial stability and competitiveness is one of the important issues in which a significant number of stakeholders are interested for enterprises of the agricultural sector, which is one of the key sectors of the national economy. The research was conducted using the following methods: the method of economic and statistical analysis and synthesis (for collecting and processing aggregated information on the capital structure of agro-industrial enterprises, calculating the cost of capital and its elements); the method of graphics and scientific comparisons (for visualising the analysis conducted and identifying trends in dynamics); the method of theoretical generalisation (for substantiating the results of the research conducted and formulating conclusions and proposals for further research). The dynamics of investment in enterprises of the agricultural sector of the economy were studied and the dependence between the increase of investment in the agricultural sector and the growth of the positive difference of the return on capital of enterprises of the agricultural sector compared to the total return on capital of the economy as a whole was revealed. It was found that the expected cost of equity capital is significantly higher than the expected cost of debt capital, with the country risk premium accounting for a large part of the difference. The heterogeneity of changes in the capital structure of the companies studied as a result of changes in the indicator of the expected rate of the cost of equity capital was revealed, which is related to the presence of a consistently cheaper alternative in the form of loan financing and the strategic vision of a particular company to ensure its own financial stability. It is suggested that in establishing cost guidelines for optimising the capital structure and minimising its cost, in addition to changes in the components of the cost of capital, the impact of such changes on the financial stability and solvency of the company should also be taken into account, as a basis for further research in this direction.

Empirical Analysis of the Relationship of Stock Market, Exchange Rate, CDS Spreads and VIX Index in Turkey

Küresel entegrasyon süreçlerinin hız kazanmasıyla yaşanan krizlerin yapısındaki ortak noktanın genel olarak ülke risk primindeki artışlar veya büyük açık ekonomilerde ortaya çıkan oynaklıkların olduğu görülmektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye’de borsa endeksi, döviz kuru, risk primi (CDS) ve korku endeksi (VIX) arasındaki ilişkileri incelemektir. Bunun için ARDL sınır testinden yararlanılmıştır. Analiz dönemi olarak hem veri bulunabilirliği açısından hem de Türkiye ekonomisi için yapısal bir dönüm noktası olan Şubat 2001 sonrası dönem kullanılmıştır. Literatürden farklı olarak hem ülke risk primini temsil eden CDS primi, hem de yurtdışı risk alma iştahını ve dolayısıyla yurtdışı konjonktürü yansıtan VIX endeksi aynı modelde kullanılmıştır. Bu şekilde CDS ve VIX göstergelerinin aynı modelde kullanılması sonucunda borsa endeksi üzerindeki etkilerinin aynı düzeyde olup olmadığı sorusuna ışık tutulmaya çalışılmıştır. Elde edilen ampirik bulgulara göre Türkiye’de borsa endeksini döviz kuru, CDS primi ve VIX endeksi etkilemektedir. Küresel piyasalara entegre bir ülke olan Türkiye’de bu sonucun beklentiler dahilinde düşünülmektedir. Yani döviz kuru, ülke risk primi ve yurtdışı risk alma iştahında meydana gelen değişimlerin borsa hareketleri üzerinde etkisi bulunmaktadır. Sonuçlarımız, küresel risk alma iştahını temsilen VIX endeksine kıyasla ülke riskini temsil eden CDS priminin BİST 100 için önemli bir gösterge olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu durumda hisse senedi piyasalarında incelenen değişkenlerin önemini öne çıkarmaktadır.

A Twitter-Based Economic Policy Uncertainty Index: Expert Opinion and Financial Market Dynamics in an Emerging Market Economy

In this paper, we construct a Twitter-based high-frequency Economic Policy Uncertainty (TEPU) index built on a select set of Twitter user accounts whose tweets are considered to reflect expert opinion on the topic. We study the relationship between the TEPU index and a set of key financial indicators for tracking financial developments in Turkey over the sample period 2013–2021. Based on the results from a vector autoregressive analysis, we find evidence that changes in expert opinion described by fluctuations in the TEPU index interact with fluctuations in financial indicators such as the exchange rate and the stock market index to capture information about high frequency events during our sample period. Second, fluctuations in the TEPU index emerge as a key indicator that helps to predict the country risk premium measured by the CDS spread. We also find evidence that the conditional volatility of the different series reflects salient events that occurred over our sample period.

Risk perception and cost of capital in emerging market projects using dynamic conditional correlation model

PurposeCost estimation is a major concern while planning projects on public–private partnership (PPP) terms in developing countries. To bridge the gap of the right approximation of cost of capital, this study aims to sermon a significant role of investor’s risk perception as unsystematic risk in PPP-based energy projects.Design/methodology/approachTo investigate the effective mechanism of determining cost of capital and valuing the capital budgeting, a pure-play method has been acquired to measure systematic risk. In addition, dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models have been applied to calculate weighted average cost of capital.FindingsInitially, a joint cost of capital of energy-related projects has been calculated using DCC-GARCH and pure-play method. Investors risk perception has been discussed through market point of view using country risk premium modeling. Latter yearly betas have been calculated using DCC signifying the final outcomes that applying a dynamic model can provide a better cost estimation in emerging economies.Practical implicationsThe findings are implicating that due to the involvement of international investors, domestic risk is linked with country risk. In such situations, market-related information is a key factor to find out the market performance, helping in the estimation of cost of capital through capital asset pricing model (CAPM). High dynamic nature of emerging economies causes an impediment in the estimation of cost of capital. Consequently, to calculate risk in dynamic markets, this study has acquired DCC model that can predict the value of beta factor.Originality/valueStudy contributes to the body of knowledge by addressing an important issue of investor’s risk perception and effective implication of CAPM using pure-play and DCC-GARCH when data is not promptly available in dynamic situations.

Spillovers of monetary policy shocks on financial markets during the crisis: Serbia and euro zone

The position of developing countries (DC) in the international financial system is the topic on which Dragoslav Avramovic worked throughout his successful scientific career. This paper extends his research towards an empirical analysis of the importance of spillovers from the changes in the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) on the country risk premium and exchange rate in Serbia over the most intense phase of the Euro crisis (2008-2012). Empirical results suggest that the ECB policy changes during the crisis significantly spilled over to financial markets only in several dimensions. The policies did not have a statistically significant effect on the level of the exchange rate and of the risk premium. However, they had a significant effect on the rise in uncertainty, especially in the case of ECB?s foreign exchange liquidity and monetary stimulus measures. Our empirical results imply that the changes in monetary policy in advanced economies can drive uncertainty spillovers across the financial markets, thereby also affecting the business cycle fluctuations in emerging markets (EM).

Old and new proposals for global monetary reform

The post-Bretton Woods monetary system in characterised by the hegemony of the US dollar despite increasing features of a multi-currency system. There is no other currency in sight to succeed the dollar. Yet there are severe downsides that seem to increase on several fronts. The paper diagnoses five major challenges: exchange rates driven by non-fundamentals, current-account imbalances, a hierarchy of interest rates (including dependency from US monetary policy), commodity-price bonanzas, and lack of global liquidity in hard currency. Major reform proposals are reviewed, focusing on reforms of Special Drawing Rights on the one hand and on a new exchange-rate system on the other. Regarding the latter, a novel system is proposed, focused on the largest foreign-exchange market, the dollar–euro market. The proposal includes target zones, mutual interventions, and a Tobin tax on currency transactions. A precondition is strengthening the international role of the euro. The currency blocs on both sides of the North Atlantic could form a bloc of more than 80 countries. The new system of managed floating could later be extended by other reserve currencies. More exchange-rate stability around the globe would reduce the country risk premiums in the Global South and trigger other positive externalities.

External shocks in a small open economy: an evaluation of monetary policy rules

This paper evaluates several small open economy DSGE models and the impact of external shock spillovers on small open economies. We investigate five small economies (the UK, Australia, Canada, New Zealand and Taiwan) and find that the welfare consequences vary depending on key domestic economic variables, and the best interest-rate rule varies across models. Then we examine the performances of the four types of models, a preferred result has been found in a model which considers the country risk premium, as the best rule could be obtained as long as the selected parameters are calibrated for particular economies.

The influence of the degree of the Russian stock market integration on the cost of equity

Subject. This paper examines how to determine the cost of equity for a developing economy, if the latter is segmented from the leading developed economy of the world. Objectives. The aim is to establish the importance of determining the cost of equity in the Russian economy, depending on the country of the developed market. Methods. All well-known international methods for determining the cost of equity, taking into account the country risk, are involved in the analysis. For calculations, I use yields of the world’s important market indices. Results. The study shows that the value of equity capital (subject to country risk), which is established under all international methods for the reference market of European developed countries, will be lower. Conclusions. CAPM models, used for developed markets, produce too low cost of capital, when they are applied as-is to developing countries. Therefore, for developing countries, models are used, which rest on the idea of adding a country risk premium to the risk premium, for the reference market of a developed country. This theory does not regulate the choice of a reference market from among developed countries. However, some studies found that the US market is not the most influential for the Russian market. The paper states that the choice of European developed countries provides a 16.8% reduction in the cost of equity, which, in turn, provides an increase in company value by a third.

The Effect of “Brexit” Uncertainty on The FTSE 100 Index and The UK Pound

We investigate the impact of the uncertainty surrounding the United Kingdom’s proposed departure from the European Community (“Brexit”) on financial assets. We conduct an event study around the November 14th 2018 draft withdrawal agreement. Our motivation was that the economic impact of the various political permutations that persisted throughout the negotiation period were both measurable and distinct. The probability of each Brexit scenario that was discussed varied over the political discourse. Using opinion poll data we investigate the event impact on both the FTSE 100 and the UK Pound. We found that, in accordance with existing academic evidence, asset prices discounted the weighted probabilistic economic impact of likely outcomes. We observe, however, that this impact was not as immediate as theory suggests. Interestingly, currency markets had the greater sensitivity. Our conclusions have important implications for the pricing of country risk premia in general and the European Union in particular. Key takeaways: 1) Asset prices were slow to discount the weighted probabilistic economic impact of Brexit risk. 2) Currency markets had the greater sensitivity to changes in Brexit risk. 3) Country risk premia can be impacted by perceived changes in custom union.

Financial Frictions and Macro‐Economic Fluctuations in Emerging Economies

AbstractThe country risk premium predicted by the dynamic real business cycle models in emerging markets is procyclical, whereas it is countercyclical in the data. This paper proposes a model in which a time‐varying risk premium emerges endogenously through a variant of the Bernanke–Gertler–Gilchrist financial accelerator mechanism. The estimated model can account for the volatility and the countercyclicality of risk premium as well as for other key business cycle moments. Time‐varying uncertainty in firm‐specific productivity significantly contributes to delivering a countercyclical default rate and explains more than half of the variances in the trade balance and risk premium.