Country Circumstances Research Articles

An Overview of Macroprudential Policy Tools

Macroprudential policies—caps on loan to value ratios, limits on credit growth and other balance-sheet restrictions, (countercyclical) capital and reserve requirements and surcharges, and Pigouvian levies—have become part of the policy paradigm in emerging markets and developed countries alike. But knowledge of these tools is still limited. Macroprudential policies ought to be motivated by market failures and externalities, but these can be hard to identify. They may also interact with various other policies, such as monetary and microprudential, raising coordination issues. Countries, especially emerging markets, have used these tools, and analyses suggest that some of those tools reduce procyclicality and crisis risks. Yet, much remains to be studied, including the costs of such tools, as they may adversely affect resource allocations; how best to adapt these tools to a country's circumstances; and preferred institutional designs, including how to address political economy risks. As such, policy makers should move carefully in adopting these tools.

"Diyet" Bir Cezâ mıdır? (Cezâî ve Medenî Müeyyide Açısından "Diyet")

Hukuk kurallarının kabul ve tatbik edilmesini zorlamak amacıyla kanunlara konulan hükümlere hukukun müeyyideleri denir. Bu müeyyideler, mahiyetleri bakımından, cezaî ve medenî müeyyide kısımlarına ayrılır. Fıkıh kitaplarının ceza bölümünde ele alınan diyet, mağdur veya yakınlarının kaybını bir ölçüde tazmin etmeyi amaçlayan medenî müeyyidedir. Eylemin durumuna göre tek başına uygulanabileceği gibi, bir cezaî müeyyide ile birlikte de tatbik olunabilir. Diyet, aralarındaki bazı farklılıklara rağmen, günümüz hukuk sistemlerinde kabul edilen öldürme ve müessir fiillerde mahkemece takdir edilen maddî ve manevî tazminata benzemektedir. Diyetin miktarını belirlemek içtihadî bir konu olduğu için, günümüzde diyet miktarının, mahallî örf ve ülke şartları da göz önünde bulundurularak iki tarafın hakkını gözeten ölçüde bir değer olarak tespit edilmesi uygun olur.

Assessing Reserve Adequacy - Specific Proposals

Reserves have a central place in the policy tool kit of most economies, providing insurance against shocks. In conjunction with sound policies, they can help reduce the likelihood of balance of payment crises and preserve economic and financial stability. Reserves, however, can result from both precautionary and non-precautionary policy objectives and institutional settings. While they can bring several important benefits, reserve holdings can sometimes be costly. This paper brings together recent Fund work on reserve adequacy issues aiming to strengthen their discussion in bilateral surveillance. Despite the ongoing debate on reserve issues, there is little consensus about how to assess reserve holdings in different economies, even though this is an important aspect of a member’s external stability assessment. The work stream of which this paper is part aims to fill this gap by outlining a framework for discussing reserve adequacy issues in different economies. In this regard, the paper also forms part of the Fund’s response to the 2012 IEO evaluation of the Fund’s advice related to international reserves, which recommended, inter alia, that assessments of international reserves in bilateral surveillance reports should be more detailed and reflect country circumstances. To this end, the paper proposes that, where warranted, individual country Article IV reports include a fuller discussion of the authorities’ stated objectives (precautionary and non-precautionary) for holding reserves, an assessment of the reserve needs for precautionary purposes, and a discussion of the cost of reserves. The aim would be to ensure evenhandedness so that countries with similar circumstances are assessed in similar ways, while allowing the depth and emphasis of this discussion to vary depending on country conditions and needs

Resolving Residential Mortgage Distress

In housing crises, high mortgage debt can feed a vicious circle of falling housing prices and declining consumption and incomes, leading to higher mortgage defaults and deeper recessions. In such situations, resolution policies may need to be adapted to help contain negative feedback loops while minimizing overall loan losses and moral hazard. Drawing on recent experiences from Iceland, Ireland, Spain, and the United States, this paper discusses how economic trade-offs affecting mortgage resolution differ in crises. Depending on country circumstances, the economic benefits of temporary forbearance and loan modifications for struggling households could outweigh their costs.

The Evolution of International Reference Pricing: An Analysis of 39 Countries.

To characterise country-level changes to international reference pricing (IRP) policy frameworks across 39 markets, and understand how countries amend this tool. Qualitative interviews were conducted with 50 stakeholders across 39 markets, representing 37 payers or payer influencers and 13 industry stakeholders. These interviews focused on country-level IRP methodology, both past and present. Extensive secondary research of government websites and existing literature was also conducted. A qualitative and semi-quantitative analysis of these findings was undertaken to identify key trends in how IRP has been modified as a policy tool since implementation. Of the markets considered, IRP has remained comparatively stable – in terms of both the countries comprising the reference basket and the underlying formula for determining the reference price remaining unchanged – in just under one-third of the 39 markets. In contrast, just over one-third of these markets have modified their IRP baskets to include one or more additional countries with the objective of lowering prices. A smaller number have made substantive changes to the IRP formula itself, notably with four markets transitioning from taking the average price of their basket as a reference to either taking the average of the three lowest or taking the lowest. IRP serves as a dynamic policy tool, changing to reflect individual country circumstances and broader policy reform over time. While a number of markets have maintained a stable IRP regime since inception, a larger number have made some changes, the most common being to add one or more markets to the reference basket. Although changes to IRP are mostly concentrated in Eastern European markets, as well as Western European markets most impacted by the recent economic crisis, the present study also suggests that there is considerable variation across geographies and time in how countries adapt their use of IRP.

PUBLIC POLICY FOR PENSIONS REFORM: A GOVERNANCE CHALLENGE FOR PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION AND DEVELOPMENT: Introduction to the Special Issue

SUMMARYReform of pensions policies is a priority public policy issue around the world. It is high on the agenda across Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development, transitional and developing countries alike. The individual country circumstances and drivers of reform may differ, as do the policy directions chosen, but there are also common factors and opportunities for cross‐country learning. These relate not only to technical aspects of pension system design but also to the processes of policy and administrative reform and to issues of development. For PAD, they raise questions about ideas, interests and institutions, as well as about specific pension system design. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Regional and Geo-Economic Situation in the Turkic – Speaking Countries in Central Asia

Economic growth and development of Turkic Speaking Countries in Central Asia is in difficult conditions which prevent them with joint efforts to resist the negative effects of globalization and geostrategic challenges of the leading countries in the region. A comparative analysis of the socio-economic, regional and geopolitical dynamics of Turkic Speaking States in Central Asia, 1991-2013 poses a number of challenges, the answers to which may identify economic development in Central Asia in radically changed circumstances. The situation has been created, in which the development of the countries in Central Asia is due to not only with solving its own socio-economic, demographic, and interethnic, water and energy, interstate and in particular regional tasks, but also with the great influence of geopolitical factors. Logically it is determined the developing the theory of managed chaos, the concept of “Greater Central Asia” by American scientists, concepts of northern territories and strategies of China in the framework of The Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the strategic approaches of Russia to the countries of Central Asia and others. In current situation, the countries of Central Asia, expediently to increase the level of regional integration, which enables them to jointly enter into a customs union (CU), the single economic space (SES) or other integration associations on favorable terms for the region and the country circumstances individually. Regional organizations, created in post-Soviet space couldn’t take place. Modern Central Asia is a complex of contradiction and local, regional interethnic, in ethnic center, ecological and interstate tension, which obtained systematic character. The assentation of the economic integration process is an indicator of the formation and the development of the general regional conflicts. Manipulating the current contradictions, geopolitical partners can successfully use theory of chaos management in the level of exact state and central-Asian regions in total, giving it applied character. Therefore, regionalization promoting Turkic Speaking Countries in Central Asia could provide with not only economic, but also regional security.

Resolving Residential Mortgage Distress: Time to Modify?

In housing crises, high mortgage debt can feed a vicious circle of falling housing prices and declining consumption and incomes, leading to higher mortgage defaults and deeper recessions. In such situations, resolution policies may need to be adapted to help contain negative feedback loops while minimizing overall loan losses and moral hazard. Drawing on recent experiences from Iceland, Ireland, Spain, and the United States, this paper discusses how economic trade-offs affecting mortgage resolution differ in crises. Depending on country circumstances, the economic benefits of temporary forbearance and loan modifications for struggling households could outweigh their costs.

An Overview of Macroprudential Policy Tools

Macroprudential policies – caps on loan to value ratios, limits on credit growth and other balance sheets restrictions, (countercyclical) capital and reserve requirements and surcharges, and Pigouvian levies – have become part of the policy paradigm in emerging markets and advanced countries alike. But knowledge is still limited on these tools. Macroprudential policies ought to be motivated by market failures and externalities, but these can be hard to identify. They can also interact with various other policies, such as monetary and microprudential, raising coordination issues. Some countries, especially emerging markets, have used these tools and analyses suggest that some can reduce procyclicality and crisis risks. Yet, much remains to be studied, including tools’ costs ? by adversely affecting resource allocations; how to best adapt tools to country circumstances; and preferred institutional designs, including how to address political economy risks. As such, policy makers should move carefully in adopting tools.

High-Dose Chemotherapy and Autologous Stem Cell Transplantation In Patients With High-Risk Neuroblastoma : Results Of Turkish Pediatric Oncology Group- Neuroblastoma 2003 (TPOG-NBL 2003) Protocol

IntroductionTPOG-NBL 2003 national protocol was designed to improve treatment results of the high risk patients by adjunction of stem cell rescue with intensive multimodal therapy. Material and MethodsHigh risk stratification was made according to COG criteria. Just before the third cycle of chemotherapy, patients without progression were allocated into two treatment groups non-randomly by physicians' and/or parent's choices guided to the center's facility, toxicity and social-economical facility to attain the megatherapy. After an induction of 6 chemotherapy cycles, the protocol was divided into two arms which were designed to continue the intensive conventional chemotherapy (CCT), or initiate myeloablative therapy with autologous stem-cell rescue (ASCR). All patients were also given 13-cis-retinoic acid as maintenance therapy. ResultsFifty-six percent (272 patients) of all neuroblastoma patients was evaluated as high risk. Response rate to induction chemotherapy was 81% (CR/VGPR: 32%, PR: 49%) in patients at the end of induction chemotherapy. Overall EFS and OS at 3-years were 36% and 45%, respectively. Intention-to-treat analysis documented post-induction (after the six cycles of induction chemotherapy) EFS of 46% in CCT arm (137 patients) and 37% in ASCR group (55 patients) (p= 0.037); whereas, OS was 59% and 43%, respectively (p=0.052). Thirty-one patients (11%) died of treatment-related complications. ConclusionSurvival rates of high-risk neuroblastoma have improved over the last decade in Turkey. The main problems when managing these patients were an effective local control, early progression and death. Megatherapy has not augmented the therapeutic end point in our country's circumstances. However; the better the supportive care and the higher the patients' compliance is attained, the higher the survival rates might be obtained in Turkish neuroblastoma patients. Disclosures:No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

FSAs and the costs of internationalisation in frontier economies.

While there is a vast amount of research on firms' choice of ownership form when entering a foreign market, it has largely focussed on firms behaving in a reactive manner to host country circumstances. Little attention has been paid to how firms might overcome some of the root causes associated with the selection of joint ventures and internationalise using wholly owned subsidiaries in the first instance. Using an embedded case study developed in Zambia, we investigate the choice of ownership form among Chinese and Western firms. The analysis of these cases leads to the development of 3 testable propositions focused on the behaviour of firms with government linkages in nascent frontier economies. Our study is exploratory and aims to lay a foundation for future research on government linkages and the internationalisation of firms, particularly in frontier market contexts.

GeneXpert for TB diagnosis: planned and purposeful implementation.

Xpert MTB/RIF is a major advance for TB diagnostics, especially for multidrug-resistant (MDR) TB and HIV-associated TB. But implementation concerns including cost, technical support requirements, and challenging demands of providing second-line TB drugs for diagnosed MDR-TB cases call for gradual, careful introduction based on country circumstances.

2011 Review of Conditionality - Design of Fund-Supported Programs

Design of Fund-supported programs aims to address country specific needs while remaining even-handed and consistent with Fund policy. This paper examines the extent to which program design and conditionality have been appropriate in pursuing these goals, by seeking to answer several questions: has program design been consistent and evenhanded; has it addressed country specific needs and objectives appropriately; has it been based on reasonably good macroeconomic projections; and has it been flexible in the face of evolving country circumstances. The description and analysis focuses on the period between 2006 and September 2011, with some attention to the 2002-05 period.

2011 Review of Conditionality - Content and Application of Conditionality

This paper reviews the design of conditionality in Fund-supported programs from 2002 to end-September 2011, with an emphasis on recent years. It focuses on the content and application of program conditionality—especially structural conditionality—in relation to the 2002 Conditionality Guidelines (the "Guidelines"), the Staff Statement on Principles Underlying the Guidelines on Conditionality, and subsequent revisions to operational guidance on conditionality. The analysis is based on the five key interrelated principles guiding the design of conditionality: national ownership of programs, parsimony in program-related conditions, tailoring to country circumstances, effective coordination with other multilateral institutions, and clarity in the specification of conditions. In particular, the principle of parsimony requires that program-related conditions be critical (or the minimum necessary) to achieve program objectives and goals, critical for monitoring program implementation, or necessary for implementing specific provisions under the Articles of Agreement (the "criticality criterion"). Beyond assessing compliance with these guidelines and principles, the paper also examines the implementation of conditionality

Enhancing Financial Sector Surveillance in Low-Income Countries - Case Studies

This supplement presents ten case studies, which highlight the roles of targeted policies to facilitate sustainable financial deepening in a variety of country circumstances, reflecting historical experiences that parallel a range of markets in LICs. The case studies were selected to broadly capture efforts by countries to increase reach (e.g., financial inclusion), depth (e.g., financial intermediation), and breadth of financial systems (e.g., capital market, cross-border development). The analysis in the case studies highlights the importance of a balanced approach to financial deepening. A stable macroeconomic environment is vital to instill consumer, institutional, and investor confidence necessary to encourage financial market activity. Targeted public policy initiatives (e.g., collateral, payment systems development) can be helpful in removing impediments and creating infrastructure for improved market operations, while ensuring appropriate oversight and regulation of financial markets, to address potential sources of instability and market failures.

The Challenge of Public Pension System Reforms

In the paper entitled The Challenge of Public Pension Reform in Advanced and Emerging Economies , International Monetary Fund (IMF) experts emphasize that public sector reform will be one of the key challenges for public policy makers, both in advanced and emerging economies. According to their projections, the share of public pension expenditure in GDP between 2010 and 2030 will grow by 1 percentage point and between 2010 and 2050 by 2.5 percentage points on average. Although the appropriate reform measures depend on country circumstances and preferences, the IMF team gives particular prominence to the numerous advantages of increasing retirement ages.

Digging in, Spreading out and Growing up: Introducing CLTS in Africa

SummaryOpen defecation is the norm in rural and urban Africa – only about a third of the population uses improved sanitation facilities – and this contributes in various ways to a heavy disease burden. Community‐led Total Sanitation (CLTS), an approach to sanitation which focuses on community‐wide behaviour change to completely stop open defecation, began to go to scale in Africa in 2006. Since then, it has spread dramatically and in many countries very successfully, and is now used at some level in at least 26 African countries.This paper draws on the extensive involvement of Kamal Kar with the spread of CLTS in Africa to describe the early stages of the process, to elaborate on its developments and to outline insights into the circumstances and features which have facilitated its rapid spread. Taking a broadly comparative approach which draws on the somewhat earlier experience of the spread of CLTS in Asia, it identifies aspects of the institutionalisation process and circumstances, including key individuals, that have contributed to the success of the approach in Africa. It also discusses challenges, however, noting several issues which may limit its impact and hinder its dissemination. In particular, the paper discusses some of the many adaptations made to CLTS in response to a wide range of pressures, varying country circumstances and strategy choices. These adaptations, it is claimed, should be made with a clear picture of what may be lost and gained by adopting them. As CLTS progresses further, it will be important to continue to grapple with these issues, to acknowledge the lessons from adaptations that have had little success, and to retain a vision of the potential of CLTS to bring fundamental transformations in sanitation, health and rural lives.

Conditional cash transfers in Latin America

Conditional cash transfer programs (CCTs) have become increasingly popular in low-income countries, particularly in Latin America. CCTs involve cash payments to poor families when they participate in educational, health-related, nutritional, or other services that could help lift them out of poverty. The apparent success of CCTs has led some development specialists to refer to CCTs as magic bullet. Conditional Cash Transfers in Latin America evaluates the effectiveness and reliability of CCTs in reducing poverty. The contributors synthesize evidence and analysis from four case studies of Brazil, Honduras, Mexico, and Nicaragua. Using state-of-the-art quantitative and qualitative methods, the studies examine various aspects of CCTs, including the trends in development and political economy that fostered interest in them; their impacts on education, health, nutrition, and food consumption; and how CCT programs affect-and how their outcomes are affected by-social relations shaped by gender, culture, and community. Throughout, the authors identify the strengths and weaknesses of CCTs and offer guidelines to those who design them. Successful programs depend on a clear definition of program goals, adapting program design to a particular country's circumstances, effective communication with CCT beneficiaries, high-quality services, and an appreciation of social relations within a given community. This new study is a valuable resource for anyone trying to understand, implement, improve, and build on the success of established conditional cash transfer programs.

The Multilateral Response to the Global Crisis: Rationale, Modalities, and Feasibility

The paper reviews the case for a strong multilateral response to the global crisis in emerging markets (EMs). It discusses modalities and feasibility of intervention and its associated risks, depending on country circumstances of fiscal space and liquidity needs. The specific role of Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) in ensuring the development effectiveness of the fiscal response is also discussed. The paper concludes by highlighting the international financial architecture issues raised by the global crisis that cannot be addressed immediately but will need to be dealt with once the current crisis has been tamed.

Crisis Management and Resolution: Early Lessons from the Financial Crisis

This paper compares the policy choices in recent and past crises, explains why those choices varied, and assesses the current state of financial and operational restructuring and institutional reform. While acknowledging the unique and global nature of the recent crisis and varying country circumstances, analysis suggests that the diagnosis and repair of financial institutions and overall asset restructuring are much less advanced than they should be at this stage and that moral hazard has increased. Consequently, vulnerabilities in the global financial system remain considerable and continue to threaten the sustainability of the recovery. These conclusions point to a number of steps to finish the business of financial sector repair and reform. JEL Classification Numbers: G01; G18; G32; G33; H12