Counties In Shandong Province Research Articles

Association of ambient ozone exposure and greenness exposure with hemorrhagic stroke mortality at different times: A cohort study in Shandong Province, China

Evidence on the association between long-term ozone exposure and greenness exposure and hemorrhagic stroke (HS) is limited, with mixed results. One potential source of this inconsistency is the difference in exposure time metrics. This study aimed to investigate the association between long-term exposure to ambient ozone, greenness, and mortality from HS using exposure metrics at different times. We also examined whether greenness exposure modified the relationship between ozone exposure and mortality due to HS. The study population consisted of 45771 participants aged ≥40 y residing in 20 counties in Shandong Province who were followed up from 2013 to 2019. Ozone exposure metrics (annual mean and warm season) and the normalized difference a measure of greenness exposure, were calculated. The relationship between environmental exposures (ozone and greenness exposures) and mortality from HS was assessed using time-dependent Cox proportional hazards models, and the modification of greenness exposure was examined using stratified analysis with interaction terms. The person-years at the end of follow-up were 90,663. With full adjustments, the risk of death from hemorrhagic stroke increased by 5% per interquartile range increase in warm season ozone [hazard ratio =1.05; 95 % confidence interval: 1.01–1.08]. No clear association was observed between annual ozone and mortality HS. Both the annual and summer NDVI were found to reduce the risk of HS mortality. The relationships were influenced by age, sex, and residence (urban or rural). Furthermore, greenness exposure was shown to have a modifying effect on the relationship between ozone exposure and the occurrence of HS mortality (P for interaction = 0.001). Long-term exposure to warm season O3 was positively associated with HS mortality, while greenness exposure was inversely associated with HS mortality. Greenness exposure may mitigate the negative effects of warm season ozone exposure on HS mortality.

Understanding urban expansion and shrinkage via green plastic cover mapping based on GEE cloud platform: A case study of Shandong, China

Green Plastic Cover (GPC) has been widely used in construction sites of China as the main measure for dust suppression. As a unique land cover in China, GPC could be viewed as a sign for evaluating the intensity of urban construction. Therefore, time series GPC maps could provide a new perspective to understand the pattern of urban development, including both urban expansion and urban shrinkage. The objective of this study is to present a novel framework for detection of urban development patterns based on high resolution GPC maps generated from Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud platform. Specifically, we first generated the GPC maps of 137 districts and counties in Shandong Province of China from 2018 to 2022 by combining time series spectral features and textural features derived from Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 images provided by GEE cloud platform. Afterwards, we designed a GPC-based urban development vigor index (GPC-UDVI) to evaluate the vitality of each city, which offers a novel perspective to identify shrinking cities. Experimental results demonstrated that the average overall accuracy of GPC maps is 89.696 %, which is accurate enough for the following analysis. Besides, the proposed GPC-UDVI exhibits a consistent trend with statistical data and could reveal urban development patterns with a high performance. Above all, dynamic monitoring of urban GPC through remote sensing is significant for understanding urban expansion modes and aiding in urban reconstruction management.

The Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Regional Development in Shandong Province of China from 2012 to 2021 Based on Nighttime Light Remote Sensing.

As a major coastal economic province in the east of China, it is of great significance to clarify the temporal and spatial patterns of regional development in Shandong Province in recent years to support regional high-quality development. Nightlight remote sensing data can reveal the spatio-temporal patterns of social and economic activities on a fine pixel scale. We based the nighttime light patterns at three spatial scales in three geographical regions on monthly nighttime light remote sensing data and social statistics. Different cities and different counties in Shandong Province in the last 10 years were studied by using the methods of trend analysis, stability analysis and correlation analysis. The results show that: (1) The nighttime light pattern was generally consistent with the spatial pattern of construction land. The nighttime light intensity of most urban, built-up areas showed an increasing trend, while the old urban areas of Qingdao and Yantai showed a weakening trend. (2) At the geographical unit scale, the total nighttime light in south-central Shandong was significantly higher than that in eastern and northwest Shandong, while the nighttime light growth rate in northwest Shandong was significantly highest. At the urban scale, Liaocheng had the highest nighttime light growth rate. At the county scale, the nighttime light growth rate of counties with a better economy was lower, while that of counties with a backward economy was higher. (3) The nighttime light growth was significantly correlated with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and population growth, indicating that regional economic development and population growth were the main causes of nighttime light change.

Spatiotemporal dynamics and influencing factors of carbon productivity in counties of Shandong Province, China.

In the context of the increasing global greenhouse effect, the Chinese government has proposed a "dual carbon" target. As a major carbon-emitting province in China, Shandong Province needs to improve its carbon productivity to coordinate carbon emission reductions and sustainable economic growth. This study analyzes the spatial and temporal evolution of carbon productivity at the county scale and the factors influencing it in Shandong Province from 2000 to 2017. The study uses the Dagum Gini coefficient, kernel density analysis, spatial autocorrelation model, and geographically and temporally weighted regression model. The results indicate that the carbon productivity in Shandong Province nearly doubled during the study period, revealing a spatial distribution characteristic of "high in the east and low in the west," together with a significant positive spatial autocorrelation. Intra-regional differences, the most important source of development differences among the three economic circles, rose to 32.11% during the study period, whereas inter-regional differences declined to 26.6%. Gross domestic product per capita and population density play a significant positive role in the development of carbon productivity. The balance of deposits in financial institutions at the end of the year has a weak positive effect, and the local average public finance expenditure and secondary industry structure on carbon productivity are negative in general. Shandong Province should identify specific regions with weak carbon productivity levels and understand the key factors to improve carbon productivity to promote the achievement of the "dual carbon" goal.

Spatiotemporal Evolution and Driving Factors of Land Development: Evidence from Shandong Province, China

As populations and economies have grown rapidly, questions of land development and use have intensified. It has become a major global concern to achieve sustainable land use practices. This study reveals evolution of the spatiotemporal pattern of land development intensity of counties in Shandong Province by introducing a land development intensity measurement model combined with three-dimensional trend surface and spatial autocorrelation analyses. Geodetector and geographically weighted regression models were employed to demonstrate the interplay and spatiotemporal heterogeneity between development intensity and drivers. The empirical results show that the value of land development intensity of counties in Shandong Province shows a general growth trend, with the number of counties with higher values gradually increasing and the number of counties with lower values gradually decreasing. We also found that the spatial heterogeneity of land development intensity across counties in Shandong Province is significant, and the spatial distribution pattern is basically consistent with the “one group, two centers and three circles” strategy proposed by the Shandong Provincial Government. There is also a positive spatial correlation and clustering effect of land development intensity of counties in Shandong Province. High (low) value clusters are concentrated in core hot (cold) counties, driving some of the surrounding counties towards radial development. The alteration in the intensity of county land development is a complex occurrence that is shaped by numerous factors. Among these, GDP per capita and population density have the primary influence on land development of counties in Shandong Province. To achieve coordinated regional social, economic, and environmental benefits, land development within the county should adhere to the principle of adapting to local conditions and implement differentiated development strategies according to different development intensities.

The Impact of Government-Led Farmland Construction on Market-Oriented Farmland Transfer—Evidence from Shandong, China

This study explored the impact of government-led high-standard farmland construction (HSFC) on market-oriented farmland transfer using a unified analysis framework of HSFC and farmland transfers. We used a binary probit model based on 660 questionnaires from five counties in Shandong Province, China to empirically analyze this impact. The results show that HSFC can significantly promote farmland lease-in while inhibiting lease-out. We found that farmland fragmentation plays a significant role in moderating this impact, which is illustrated by the fact that improved farmland fragmentation does not promote HSFC in the context of farmland lease-in. Furthermore, it can effectively alleviate the inhibitory effect of HSFC on farmland lease-out. The impact of HSFC on farmland transfer has significant labor transfer heterogeneity. For households with a low degree of labor transfer, HSFC can significantly promote farmland lease-in and inhibit lease-out, while for households with a high degree of labor transfer, the above effect is not significant.

Quantifying substantial carcinogenesis of genetic and environmental factors from measurement error in the number of stem cell divisions

BackgroundThe relative contributions of genetic and environmental factors versus unavoidable stochastic risk factors to the variation in cancer risk among tissues have become a widely-discussed topic. Some claim that the stochastic effects of DNA replication are mainly responsible, others believe that cancer risk is heavily affected by environmental and hereditary factors. Some of these studies made evidence from the correlation analysis between the lifetime number of stem cell divisions within each tissue and tissue-specific lifetime cancer risk. However, they did not consider the measurement error in the estimated number of stem cell divisions, which is caused by the exposure to different levels of genetic and environmental factors. This will obscure the authentic contribution of environmental or inherited factors.MethodsIn this study, we proposed two distinct modeling strategies, which integrate the measurement error model with the prevailing model of carcinogenesis to quantitatively evaluate the contribution of hereditary and environmental factors to cancer development. Then, we applied the proposed strategies to cancer data from 423 registries in 68 different countries (global-wide), 125 registries across China (national-wide of China), and 139 counties in Shandong province (Shandong provincial, China), respectively.ResultsThe results suggest that the contribution of genetic and environmental factors is at least 92% to the variation in cancer risk among 17 tissues. Moreover, mutations occurring in progenitor cells and differentiated cells are less likely to be accumulated enough for cancer to occur, and the carcinogenesis is more likely to originate from stem cells. Except for medulloblastoma, the contribution of genetic and environmental factors to the risk of other 16 organ-specific cancers are all more than 60%.ConclusionsThis work provides additional evidence that genetic and environmental factors play leading roles in cancer development. Therefore, the identification of modifiable environmental and hereditary risk factors for each cancer is highly recommended, and primary prevention in early life-course should be the major focus of cancer prevention.

Coupling Coordination and Spatiotemporal Evolution between Carbon Emissions, Industrial Structure, and Regional Innovation of Counties in Shandong Province

Industrial structure and regional innovation have a significant impact on emissions. This study explores, from the multivariate coupling and spatial perspectives, the degree of coupling coordination between three factors: industrial structure, carbon emissions, and regional innovation of 97 counties in Shandong Province, China from 2000 to 2017. On the basis of global spatial autocorrelation and cold and hot spots, this article analyzes the spatial characteristics and aggregation effects of coupled and coordinated development within each region. The results are as follows. (1) The coupling degree between carbon emissions, industrial structure, and regional innovation in these counties fluctuated upward from 2000 to 2017. Coupling coordination progressed from low coordination to basic coordination. Regional differences in coupling coordination degree are evident, showing a stepped spatial distribution pattern with high levels in the east and low levels in the west. (2) During the study period, the coupling coordination showed a positive correlation in spatial distribution. Moran’s I varies from 0.057 to 0.305 on a global basis. Spatial clustering is characterized by agglomeration of cold spots and hot spots. (3) The coupling coordination exhibited significant spatial differentiation. The hot spots were distributed in the eastern part, while the cold spots were located in the western part. The results of this study suggest that the counties in Shandong Province should promote industrial structure upgrades and enhance regional innovation to reduce carbon emissions.

Effects of Cotton–Peanut Intercropping Patterns on Cotton Yield Formation and Economic Benefits

Intercropping has been widely adopted by farmers because it often enhances crop productivity and economic returns. However, to increase the comprehensive production benefits of agricultural cultivation and increase the economic benefits of cotton in Northwest Shandong Province, a set of green, ecological, and efficient intercropping mode suitable for Northwest Shandong Province was preliminarily formed. A 2-year intercropping experiment was conducted in Xiajin and Dongping counties in Shandong Province, with six alternative intercropping patterns proposed. After analyzing the experimental data, it was determined that the traditional cotton–peanut intercropping method is not mechanized and that a new intercropping mode has been proposed: four rows of cotton and six rows of peanut. We selected the appropriate intercropping mode for Xiajin and Dongping counties. The production efficiency of 4:4 cotton intercropping in Peanut Ridge was the best in Dongping and Xiajin counties, which was 28–123% higher than that of monoculture. This planting pattern is suitable for demonstration and promotion in the two counties, as well as in the traditional cotton area of the old Yellow River in Northwest Shandong.

A longitudinal study of relationship between family conflict and suicidal behavior in adolescents

Objective: To explore the relationship between family conflict and adolescent future suicidal behavior. Methods: A total of 7 072 adolescents who participated in the baseline survey and the first follow-up survey of Shandong Adolescent Behavior and Health Cohort were included in the analysis. They were sampled from 8 middle schools in 3 counties of Shandong province, China. A self-reported questionnaire was used to measure suicidal behavior, family conflict, depression, and demographic characteristics. Logistic regression model was used to analyze the relationship between family conflict and suicidal behavior. Results: In the baseline survey, the age of 7 072 subjects was (14.58±1.45) years, and boys and girls accounted for 50.0% respectively. 750 people (10.6%) had any suicidal behavior, of which 707 (10.0%), 258 (3.6%) and 190 (2.7%) had suicidal ideation, suicide planning and suicide attempt, respectively. The family conflict scores of the suicidal group were higher than those of the non-suicidal group. After adjusting for covariates, logistic regressions showed that family conflict was associated with increased risk of suicidal behavior (OR=1.05, 95%CI: 1.01-1.10), suicidal ideation (OR=1.05, 95%CI: 1.00-1.09), suicide planning (OR=1.08, 95%CI: 1.01-1.16) and suicide attempt (OR=1.10, 95%CI: 1.02-1.19). Further stratified by gender, results showed no significant association between family conflict and suicidal behavior in girls; the association of family conflict with suicidal behavior was more significant in boys, especially for suicidal ideation and suicide planning, and the OR value of the latter was higher than the former. The results were stable after sensitivity analysis in males. Conclusions: Family conflict might increase the risk of adolescent suicidal behavior, especially in males. Harmonious family environment and good family atmosphere are of great significance to adolescent suicide prevention and control.

Usage Efficiency of Financial Poverty Alleviation Funds: An Empirical Analysis of China’s Eastern Rural Areas

Objective: The focus in this study is on how to improve the disharmony between the financial poverty alleviation investment model and the economic development efficiency. Methods: In this paper, based on the efficiency measurement principle of DEA method, an input-output model for evaluating the performance of poverty alleviation funds in counties of Shandong Province is constructed. Then, the data published by the government of 30 poverty-stricken counties in Shandong Province are selected and usedto measure the performance of poverty alleviation funds by Frontier Analyst 4.0 software according to indicators, including comprehensive efficiency analysis (CCR model), pure technical efficiency analysis (BCC model) and scale efficiency analysis (SE model). Results: (1) The average comprehensive efficiency of the use of financial poverty alleviation funds in 30 poverty-stricken counties in Shandong Province is 0.7898, of which 16 values are lower than the average;(2) Among the 30 poverty-stricken counties, the pure technical efficiency of poverty alleviation funds in 15 counties is 1, and the average value of pure technical efficiency is 0.9670, while the pure technical efficiency of poverty alleviation funds in 10 counties is lower than the average level; (3) From the perspective of average scale efficiency, the average scale efficiency of the use of financial poverty alleviation funds in 30 poverty-stricken counties involved in the study is 0.8168, and the use of poverty alleviation funds in more than half of counties shows increasing returns on scale. Conclusion: In poverty-stricken counties, the overall efficiency of the use of financial poverty alleviation funds is not high, among which the pure technical performance of input and output of financial poverty alleviation funds is relatively low. Therefore, under the same investment, more detailed and differentiated capital investment projects should be built to improve the efficiency of resource investment. For some counties with declining returns to scale, poverty alleviation projects with different characteristics can be added to improve the overall efficiency of poverty alleviation funds in counties.

Multi-Dimensional Feature Recognition and Policy Implications of Rural Human–Land Relationships in China

Rural decline has become an indisputable fact and a global issue. As a developing country, China is simultaneously facing unprecedented rapid urbanization and severe rural decline. The coordinated development of its rural human–land relationship is therefore of great significance for ensuring the country’s food security and achieving both rural revitalization and sustainable development. Yet, the related research on this complex subject has mostly focused on a single element: rural settlements. Since studies of the rural human–land relationship tend to only discuss the coordinated change in rural populations vis-à-vis rural settlement area, their degree of spatial matching and intensive utilization level of rural settlements has been largely overlooked. To rectify this imbalance, using data on rural populations and rural settlement area in counties of Shandong Province in 2009 and 2018, this paper applied the methods of per capita rural settlement area, the Theil index, and Tapio’s decoupling model to quantitatively identify the rural human–land relationship along three dimensions: intensive utilization level, spatial matching degree, and change coordination degree. The results revealed that the per capita rural settlement area in Shandong Province was as high as 212.18 m2/person in 2018, which exceeded the standard to varying degrees in all cities, having an overall geographical pattern of being high in the north and low in the south. The Theil index for all cities was small, which indicates that the spatial matching between rural population and rural settlements is high. To sum up, there are small differences in the utilization of rural settlements among cities, and their extensive utilization of rural settlements is a common phenomenon. In addition, the relationship between the changes in the rural population size and rural settlement area corresponded to a discordant state, in the form of strong negative decoupling, expansive negative decoupling, and expansive coupling; however, among them, the strong negative decoupling type was the dominant type. It is worth noting that all of these three types will exacerbate the extensive utilization of rural settlements. Accordingly, this paper proposes policies and measures, such as the paid withdrawal of rural homesteads, an expanded scope of homestead transfer, cross-regional “increasing versus decreasing balance”, classified promotion of rural revitalization, and improved village planning.

Drastic changes in fertility level and timing in response to marriage and fertility policies: evidence from Shandong province, China

China’s “one-child policy” that had been in force between 1980 and 2016 evolved over time and differed widely between regions. Local policies in many regions also targeted the timing and spacing of childbearing by setting the minimum age at marriage, first birth and second birth and defining minimum interval between births. Our study uses data from the 120 Counties Population Dynamics Monitoring System to reconstruct fertility level and timing in nine counties in Shandong province, which experienced frequent changes in birth and marriage policies. We reconstruct detailed indicators of fertility by birth order in 1986–2016, when policies on marriage and fertility timing became strictly enforced since 1989 and subsequently relaxed (especially in 2002) and abandoned (in 2013). Our analysis reveals that birth timing policies have fuelled drastic changes in fertility level, timing and spacing in the province. In the early 1990s period fertility rates plummeted to extreme low levels, with the provincial average total fertility rate falling below 1 in 1992–1995. Second births rates fell especially sharply. The age schedule of childbearing shifted to later ages and births became strongly concentrated just above the minimum policy age at first and second birth, resulting in a bimodal distribution of fertility with peaks at ages 25 and 32. Conversely, the abandonment of the province-level policy on the minimum age at marriage and first birth and less strict enforcement of the policy on the minimum age at second birth contributed to a recovery of period fertility rates in the 2000s and a shift to earlier timing of first and second births. It also led to a shorter second birth interval and a re-emergence of a regular age schedule of fertility with a single peak around age 28.

How Capital Endowment and Ecological Cognition Affect Environment-Friendly Technology Adoption: A Case of Apple Farmers of Shandong Province, China.

Ever-increasing global environmental issues, land degradation, and groundwater contamination may significantly impact the agricultural sector of any country. The situation worsens while the global agricultural sectors are going through the unsustainable intensification of agricultural production powered by chemical fertilizers and pesticides. This trend leads the sector to exercise environmentally friendly technology (EFT). Capital endowment and ecological cognition may significantly impact fostering farmers’ adoption of environmentally friendly technology. The government also tends to change the existing policies to cope with ever-increasing challenges like pollution control, maintaining ecological balance, and supporting agricultural sectors substantially by employing ecological compensation policy. The study’s main objective is to explore the impacts of farmer’s ecological compensation, capital endowment, and ecological cognition for the adoption of EFT. The empirical setup of the study quantifies with survey data of 471 apple farmers from nine counties of Shandong province. The study used Heckman’s two-stage model to craft the findings. The results showed that 52.02% of fruit farmers adopted two environmentally friendly technologies, and 23.99% of fruit farmers adopted three forms of environmentally friendly technologies. At the same time, we have traced that the capital endowment, planting scale, family income, and technical specialization of fruit farmers significantly impact adopting EFT. The study also revealed that understanding ecological compensation policy has a significant positive effect on adopting environmentally friendly technology. Seemingly, ecological compensation policy has a specific regulatory effect on fruit farmers’ capital endowment and ecological cognition. Therefore, it is necessary to extend the demonstration facilities, training, and frequently arrange awareness-building campaigns regarding rural non-point source pollution hazards and improve the cognition level of farmers. The agriculture extension department should strengthen the agricultural value chain facilities to make farmers fully realize the importance of EFT. Government should promote and extend the supports for availing new and innovative EFT at a reasonable price. Moreover, cooperative, financial, and credit organizations need to lead for the smooth transition of EFT. The agricultural cooperatives and formal risk-taking networks should act responsibly for shaping the behavioral factors of farmers.

Impact of overweight and obesity on the relationship between serum vitamin D and fasting blood glucose in children aged 6-17 years in Shandong Province

To study the relationship between serum vitamin D and fasting blood glucose in children and adolescents, and its influence on overweight and obesity. Using a multi-stage stratified cluster sampling method, 13 districts and counties in Shandong Province were selected as survey points, and a total of 26 elementary schools, 26 junior high schools and 13 high schools were selected. Questionnaire surveys and physical examination were conducted on children and adolescents aged 6-17.Serum vitamin D and fasting blood glucose were uniformly measured. The "BMI Classification Standard for Overweight and Obesity Screening for Chinese School-age Children and Adolescents" was used to determine overweight and obesity. Statistical method adopt t-test and generalized linear regression model for analysis. A total of 3562 children aged 6-17 years were investigated, 2666 were healthy, 446 were overweight, 450 were obese, including 131 peripheral obesity and 319 abdominal obesity. The fasting blood glucose level of the 13-17-year-old group was significantly higher than that of the 6-12-year-old group(t=-3.13, P=0.002), and the male was significantly higher than that of the female(t=7.87, P& lt; 0.001). In the healthy and obesity group, there was a negative correlation between serum vitamin D and fasting blood glucose(P& lt; 0.05). In overweight group, serum vitamin D was not significantly related to fasting blood glucose(P& gt; 0.05). Serum vitamin D and fasting blood glucose were negatively correlated with healthy bodies in female group and 13-17 years old group, and the abdominal obesity bodies in the 6-12 year old group(P& lt; 0.05). The fasting blood glucose of adolescents aged 13-17 is significantly higher than that of children aged 6-12, and the fasting blood glucose of men is significantly higher than that of women. Different gender, age, and overweight and obesity status have an impact on the relationship between serum vitamin D and fasting blood glucose.

The Characteristics, Influencing Factors, and Push-Pull Mechanism of Shrinking Counties: A Case Study of Shandong Province, China

To analyze the characteristics, influencing factors, and microscopic mechanisms of county-level city shrinkage, this paper uses a quantitative push-pull model to explore the shrinking counties of Shandong Province between 2000 and 2018. The measurement method formulates three research objectives. First, the shrinking intensity and characteristics are analyzed according to statistics about the average annual rate of population growth, the primary production proportion, and public expenditure. Second, the influence factors are explored. Living standards, industrial development, social input, and public resource indicators are selected to quantitatively identify the push factors and pull factors and the correlated relationship of how the factors influence the population decline using ridge regression. Finally, the circular feedback mechanism and push-pull effect of multiple factors are explained. How do the factors affect each other and which is the decisive factor shaping county shrinkage? The push-pull mechanism is analyzed using dynamic relationship testing and the Granger causality test. The results show that the shrinkage of county-level cities faces common problems, including lack of resources, slowing down of the economy, and declining cityscape quality of life, which are the push factors for the population decline. There are differentiated characteristics of shrinkage. There has not yet been a full-scale recession in Shandong Province in terms of the degree of shrinkage. The towns with population loss accounted for only 15.4%, and the loss of population was less than 10% in ten years. In terms of impact mechanisms, county economic strength has a nonlinear correlation to population migration. Some counties tend to shrink in population and society. The degradation of the cultural environment, quality of life, and social welfare highlight social shrinkage signs in counties. A healthy living environment, equal public services, and a slowing down of relative deprivation have become essential pull factors for migration. County governments should shift from economic growth to people’s well-being, balancing government governance, economic growth, cultural development, environmental protection, and improving the livability level, as they are important directions for improving shrinking counties’ resilience.

Research on performance Evaluation method to promote sustainable development of opening government affairs

Open government affairs (OGA) play an important role in promoting national governance system and capacity. In order to realize an open and efficient government, it is necessary to scientifically evaluate the performance of government. The effect of OGA can be improved continuously through the feedback from evaluation, which is beneficial for the sustainable development of OGA. However, with the continuous development of OGA, the existing methods of evaluation are faced with such problems as poor-timeliness, high-cost and subjective uncertainty, which are difficult to satisfy the demands of performance evaluation of OGA. Therefore, this paper puts forward a performance evaluation method based on T-S fuzzy neural network. Our method has a strong ability of data processing, which can simplify the work flow. The T-S fuzzy neural network was trained and tested through using the performance evaluation data of all districts and counties in Shandong Province, China. Finally, the evaluation results offered by our method are highly accurate. Hence, our method is suitable for the performance evaluation of OGA, it can continuously enhance the improvement of government’s performance management and capacity building so as to promote the sustainable development of OGA.

Spatio-temporal evolution of economic polycentric pattern at county level in Shandong Province

From the perspective of economy and comprehensive development level, this study used the gravity model, spatial autocorrelation analysis and principal component analysis to quantitatively measure the spatiotemporal evolution pattern of multi-centers at county level in Shandong Province. The results show that the economic ties among counties in Shandong Province are getting closer and closer. By 2016, Jinan-Zibo-Qingdao and Jining, Zaozhuang have basically formed three strong economic ties. The amount of counties with high-high GDP and low-low GDP are decreasing, while the amount of counties with lowhigh GDP are increasing. The gap between the density of output value and the level of economic development is narrowing, showing a trend of multicenter development. In the future development, Shandong Province should strengthen the integration of resources within the province, form a reasonable industrial division of labor, strengthen the cooperation among enterprises, promote the regional integration construction, and realize the multi-center spatial development model of cooperation.

Spatial clustering analysis and trend of liver cancer death rate in Shandong province, 1970-2013

Objective: To explore the spatial clustering and trend of liver cancer mortality in different counties of Shandong province from 1970 to 2013, and provide scientific basis for the development of liver cancer prevention and control plan. Methods: Cancer mortality data were obtained from Shandong Death Registration System and three national death cause surveys in China. Mortality rate and age adjusted mortality rate were used to describe the trend of liver cancer in different years. Difference decomposing method was applied to estimate the contribution of demographic and non-demographic factors to the change of mortality. Software ArcGIS 10.2 was used for spatial analysis, and software SaTScan 9.4 was used for spatial clustering analysis on liver cancer mortality. Results: From 2011 to 2013, the crude mortality rate of liver cancer (29.89/100 000) in Shandong increased by 208.00% and 35.37% respectively compared with that during 1970-1974 (9.72/100 000) and 1990-1992 (22.08/100 000) and was similar to that during 2004-2005 (30.44/100 000). While age standardized mortality rate (ASMR) increased first and then decreased. The ASMR during 2011-2013 (12.62/100 000) increased by 60.97% compared with that during 1970-1974 and decreased by 22.38% and 21.81% compared with that during 1990-1992 and 2004-2005, respectively. According to the difference decomposition analysis on liver cancer mortality in different years, the contribution of population factors to the liver cancer mortality rate increased from 3.38% during 1990-1992 to 29.36% during 2004-2005 and 46.16% during 2011-2013. However, the contribution of non-population factors to the increase of liver cancer mortality decreased. According to the spatial distribution of liver cancer mortality, the crude mortality rate of liver cancer in different counties were quite different, ranging from 9.33/100 000 to 65.33/100 000. Using the spatial scanning statistical software to analyze the spatial clustering of liver cancer mortality, multi areas with high mortality rate of liver cancer were found, and they were mainly distributed in Jiaodong peninsula from 2011 to 2013, covering 20 counties (cities, districts) in Qingdao, Yantai and Weihai. The risk of liver cancer mortality in this area was 1.54 times higher than that in other areas. The spatial clustering distribution of liver cancer mortality during 1970-1974 was significantly different from that during 2011-2013, the areas with high mortality rate during 1970-1974 were mainly distributed in central and western Shandong. Conclusions: There were significant temporal and spatial distribution changes in the mortality rate of liver cancer in Shandong from 1970 to 2013. According to these trends and their geographical and spatial distribution, we should further explore the risk factors of liver cancer, and formulate feasible and area specific prevention and control measures for liver cancer.

Analysis of Spatial-Temporal Evolution of Quality of Life in counties in Shandong Province

Existing researches on the quality of life have mostly used socio-economic data for analysis and less research on the use of multi-source data; more research on large cities and less research on small and medium-sized regions; more research on single years and less research on evolution. This article uses Shandong province as an empirical case, using multiple data sources such as remote sensing data, PM2.5 meteorological data, socio-economic data, by selecting key indicators, a county-level quality of life indicator system based on the three dimensions of economy, society, and the environment was constructed, and using a variety of spatial analysis methods to analyze the quality of life in 137 counties (cities) in Shandong Province in the four years from 2000 to 2015. The results are as follows: (1) The overall spatial difference in the quality of life of counties in Shandong Province is quite large, and the polarization is severe. (2) Unbalanced development in all dimensions; unbalanced development of quality of life in municipal and non-municipal districts. (3) Radiation power is not strong in high quality of life areas. lack of core cities in low quality of life areas. According to the status quo, this article proposes reasonable targeted measures and suggestions.