Counterinsurgency Measures Research Articles

Do mercenaries perform better than states? Evaluating the Wagner group’s impact on Central African Republic

ABSTRACT Do mercenaries perform better than democratic state armies? This study examines the efficacy of mercenary groups compared to state military interventions, using the Wagner Group’s operations in the Central African Republic as a case study. By comparing the French Operation Sangaris (2013–2016) with Wagner’s involvement (2021–2023), the research evaluates their relative effectiveness across counterinsurgency measures, military success, and popular responses. Utilizing data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, the analysis reveals that the Wagner Group outperformed the French intervention in most metrics, including territorial gains, geographical spread of operations, and reduction of civil unrest. These findings challenge prevailing assumptions about mercenaries’ ineffectiveness. The study suggests that the Wagner Group’s perceived effectiveness, despite its controversial reputation and association to human rights violations, explains its appeal to African governments seeking security solutions. This research contributes to ongoing debates about the role of private military companies in conflict zones and has implications for understanding the changing dynamics of security provision in Africa and beyond.

America Has Fallen: Critical Race Theory & Low-Intensity Conflict

This article aims to enlighten the business community on socio-political theory, specifically Critical Theory (CT) and Critical Race Theory (CRT), which evolved from Marxist principles. While CT focuses on economics, CRT applies a Marxist lens to race, gender, and intersectionality. The research discussion transitions from theory to application of Low Intensity Conflict (LIC) as defined by U.S. military doctrine. LIC Phase 1 involves organizing, educating, and infiltrating government; Phase 2 includes initiating low level violence and propaganda, expanding to insurrection and guerrilla attacks, and consolidating power through increased attacks and political activities. With Phases 1 and 2 completed, Phase 3 was initiated with an attempted assassination of former President Trump, and is exacerbated by unchecked immigration of military-aged men and fentanyl proliferation. This study advocates for counter-insurgency measures and emphasizes the urgent need for politicians to uphold their constitutional oaths and safeguard the nation.

Predicting the Path of Insurgency: Data-Driven Strategies to Counter Boko Haram in Nigeria

Background While Boko Haram insurgency’s dangers are well documented, existing research lacks methods for effective monitoring and prediction, of their activities. This study addresses this gap by analyzing data from Nigerian Security Tracker website (https://www.cfr.org/nigeria/nigeria-security-tracker/p29483) from year 2011 to 2023 and geolocated information on Boko Haram activity. Methods The research employs a mixed-methods approach. It uses descriptive statistics to understand attack trends and time series models (ARIMA/SARIMA) to forecast future attacks. Additionally, control charts identify periods of heightened insurgency. Results The findings confirm the Northeast region, as the epicenter of Boko Haram activities. The average monthly attack rate was 18 incidents, leading to 682 deaths over 12 years. 2014 and 2015 witnessed the peak of the insurgency. The forecasting models suggest a potential decrease in attack frequency in the coming years, with an average of nine attacks per month. This predicted decline might be linked to intervention efforts. Control charts reveal periods where attacks surpassed expected levels, highlighting critical moments for intensified counter-insurgency measures. These periods include July 2012-May 2014 and June 2014-August 2015, with a period of regained control. Conclusion This research provides valuable insights for stakeholders working to fight against Boko Haram’s insurgency. It offers forecasting capabilities and identifies critical periods, potentially informing targeted interventions and improving overall counter-insurgency strategies.

To Be Experienced or Not? Unpacking the Relationship between Leader Tenure and Counterinsurgency Efforts

ABSTRACT Although countering insurgencies through violence is common yet costly, we occasionally observe governments take this cost by adopting non-violent strategies. Hence, under what circumstances do leaders choose non-violent or violent ones in tackling with insurgencies? We empirically investigate how leader experience in office affects what type of counterinsurgency measures leaders employ, and how domestic political constraints condition the decision-making process. We argue that inexperienced leaders tend to use violence, while experienced ones may adopt conciliatory tactics, as the former are more risk prone to prove their strong leadership immediately. However, we also contend that institutional mechanisms could moderate this effect depending on the level of constraints they impose. Drawing on Asal et al. dataset on governments’ counterinsurgency activities, we find that inexperienced leaders are more likely to resort to violence as a counterinsurgency strategy; whereas experienced ones are more likely to avoid solely violent measures, and adopt non-violent ones, as well. Plus, the effect is conditional on regime type, as experienced leaders’ acts vary depending on if they maintain a sear in a democratic or anocratic regime. Our findings contribute to the conflict studies by opening the door to the examination of leader-level factors on counterinsurgency more explicitly.

Religious Insurgency and The Quest for Sustainable Peace in Nigeria: The Islamic Model as a Panacea

Peace advocates, conflict analysts, security experts and academia have effortlessly analyzed and advanced various ways to contain the religious insurgency championed by the Boko Ḥarām movement which has threatened Nigeria's quest for peace for more than a decade despite the counter-insurgency measures of successive Nigerian governments. However, recent situations depict that the insurgency remains unabated. This paper examined Nigeria's turbulent decade of religious insurgency, its position within the Islamic context, and Islamically-inclined practicable solution to the threat. It used analytical research method based on existing secondary literature and primary Islamic law sources. The paper reveals that a turbulent decade of Boko Ḥarām insurgency has wreaked havoc on the peace and tranquility previously existing among Nigeria's diverse ethno-religious entities. The analysis of Quranic texts, aḥādīth and opinions of notable scholars also indicates that religious insurgency associated with Boko Ḥarām is inconsistent with Islamic doctrines. Tolerance among religionists, proper religious teachings and interpretation of divine scripture, genuine inter and intra-faith dialogues, Islamic leadership-cum-governance paradigms, among others, were the identified Islamic-modelled panacea to the insurgency. The paper concludes that if the identified Islamic model can be embraced and considered in the scheme of things by religious and political leaders, as well as their ardent followers, the current religious insurgency would be drastically curtailed, thereby advancing sustainable peace in Nigeria.

Religious Insurgency and Quest for Sustainable Peace in Nigeria: The Islamic Model as a Panacea

The religious insurgency championed by the Boko Ḥarām movement has threatened Nigeria's quest for sustainable peace for more than a decade despite the counter-insurgency measures of successive governments. This paper examined Nigeria's turbulent decade of religious insurgency, its position within the Islamic context, and Islamically-inclined practicable solution to the threat. It used analytical research method based on existing secondary literature and primary Islamic law sources. The paper reveals that a turbulent decade of Boko Ḥarām insurgency has wreaked havoc on the peace and tranquillity previously existing among Nigeria's diverse ethno-religious entities. The analysis of Quranic texts, aḥādīth and opinions of notable scholars also indicates that religious insurgency associated with Boko Ḥarām is inconsistent with Islamic doctrines. Tolerance among religionists, proper religious teachings and interpretation of divine scripture, genuine inter and intra-faith dialogues, Islamic leadership-cum-governance paradigms, among others, were the identified Islamic-modelled panacea to the insurgency. The paper concludes that if the identified Islamic model can be embraced and considered in the scheme of things by religious and political leaders, as well as their ardent followers, the current religious insurgency would be drastically curtailed, thereby advancing sustainable peace in Nigeria.

Beyond Collateral Damage: The Politics of Civilian Victimization in a Civil War

Abstract Under what conditions do states pursue counterinsurgency measures with little disregard for civilian life? This article argues that the states have an incentive to engage in group-selective violence involving disproportionate force when facing a local population sympathetic to an armed insurgent organization. Such a military strategy allows the state to punish the local population while claiming that civilian casualties are an unintended consequence of its counterinsurgency campaign. Using a nuanced measurement of civilian victimization that transcendences the dichotomous distinction between intentional and unintentional killings, this study focuses on the Kurdish conflict in Turkey. The empirical analyses, based on an original violent events dataset, demonstrate that the Turkish state’s counterinsurgency campaign involves group-selective violence characterized by disproportionate force that aims to neutralize domestic and international reactions, punishes dissident political mobilization, and brandishes the government’s nationalist credentials to the majority population.

Guerrilla Protest: Understanding Social Movements from a Civil War Framework with the Case of Hong Kong 2019

ABSTRACT Protests could exhibit properties of an asymmetrical, nonconventional war when paramilitary police utilise counterinsurgency measures and decentralised protestors adopt guerrilla tactics. This study examines the structural characteristics of the 2019 Hong Kong protests and the organisation of the police and protestors. Strategic challenges seen in civil wars emerged. Blurred frontlines and identification problems escalated violence for collaboration and control. The civil war theoretical framework explains the role of civilians, the logic of violence, and the realignment of social and economic life in prolonged protests. The resemblance of society at civil war suggests civilians were forced to take sides and participate.

Counter-Insurgency Measures and Enforced Disappearance in Nigeria: Boko Haram Perspective

Boko Haram has threatened the peace and wellbeing of the nation especially in the North-Eastern parts of Nigeria. The Federal Government initiated counterinsurgency measures involving the National Security Agencies with the sole mandate of restoring law and order. However, the security agencies in their counterinsurgency measures against the Boko Haram insurgency have committed series of human rights violations against the citizens. One of the serious human rights violated by the security agencies against the citizens is the right against enforced disappearance. The aim of this paper, is to examine the extent to which the security agencies engaged in violating citizens’ right against enforced disappearance, and whether the perpetrators are held accountable for such human right violation. To achieve this, the research adopted doctrinal methodology otherwise known as theoretical. The findings reveal that the security agencies have engaged in violating citizens’ right against enforced disappearance and no perpetrator was held accountable. The paper recommends that, cases of enforced disappearance be investigated and the perpetrators be brought before justice and also the Convention against Enforced Disappearance be domesticated in Nigeria.

Boko Haram and Ansar al-Sunna: A Comparative Analysis of Insurgency Dynamics and Governance Failures

This paper examines the manifestation and problems relating to the Islamist insurgencies of Boko Haram in north-eastern Nigeria, and Ansar al-Sunna in northern Mozambique. The thrust of the paper is that Islamist movements, driven by the ideas of jihadism, exploit conditions in weak and fragile states and expand their reach in territories affected by poor or deteriorating socio-economic conditions. In Africa, Boko Haram and Ansar al-Sunna are two striking examples. Following the introduction, the phenomena of Islamism and jihadist insurgencies in Africa are under review, after which state fragility is theorised. The focus then moves to Boko Haram and the conflict dynamics in the north-east of Nigeria, and the political conditions and related fragility in that country. From there, the emphasis shifts to Ansar al-Sunna and the conflict dynamics in northern Mozambique, focusing on the emergence and existence of the movement, and the political conditions and related fragility in the country. The paper argues that in both insurgencies under review – Nigeria and Mozambique – fragility and violent conflict fuel each other, and thus we can argue that the state fragility–conflict dynamics nexus is key in understanding the contemporary security landscapes and conflict in these two states. Finally, the paper concludes by highlighting and reflecting on six of the most striking similarities between the Boko Haram and Ansar al-Sunna insurgencies, and the governance (political and military) challenges that have thus far limited or prevented successful counter-insurgency measures in both countries.

The Effect of Curfews on Political Preferences

Governments often use curfews as counterinsurgency measures. Do such state actions affect citizens’ political preferences? We argue that citizens’ responses depend on their group alignment. Citizens who are aligned with the government are more likely to interpret state actions as serving their interests and reward the governing parties as a result. Citizens who are aligned with the insurgent movement, however, are likely to interpret these same actions as targeted and disengage from politics: they have no reason to reward the governing parties and may also be fearful of expressing support for the parties affiliated with the insurgent movement. We find support for this argument with survey data from Turkey, fielded before and during curfews. When exposed to curfews, Turks generally increase their support for the governing party. However Kurds do not increase their support for the governing party or the opposition; instead, we present strong evidence that they withdraw their support from the Kurdish opposition and become more hesitant to express any political preferences.

‘Small Fires Causing Large Fires’: An Analysis of Boko Haram Terrorism–Insurgency in Nigeria

Since July 2009, when the popular founder of Boko Haram, Mohammed Yusuf, was extrajudicially killed by the police, the group has become radicalised. Boko Haram started by terrorising the country, particularly the northeastern zone, which extends to Cameroon, Niger, and Lake Chad. Several works on the group, mostly by foreign commentators and scholars, have mainly attributed its rise to political and economic factors. Many of those works have not also recognised the metamorphosis from terrorism to insurgency, wherein the group is now replacing the secular status of Nigeria’s configuration with a monolithic Islamic caliphal rule in the swathes of land that it has captured. Even though the Nigerian government has adopted the factors canvassed by those scholars and also denies the group an ideological anchorage, I argue that Boko Haram’s ideological scaffolding is hinged on ultra-jihadi Salafism. Relying on qualitative sources, I employ a historical and interpretive framework in explicating the origin of Boko Haram and in content analysing President Muhammad Buhari’s 2015 inaugural speech, which denies the group of any ideological leaning on Islam. I then contend that such a denial has made counter-insurgency measures of the government counter-productive, as efforts at meeting political and economic factors are difficult to achieve in the present circumstance. I, therefore, recommend counter-insurgency measures, which include, amongst others, Western education, Islamic de-radicalisation processes, and counter-insurgency narratives, as well as ideas to cut off the recruitment of youth into the group and military engagement, as both short- and long-term strategies.

Repression or Reward: Assessing the Impact of Israeli Counterinsurgency Measures on Diverse Perpetrators of Palestinian Militancy

ABSTRACT This study quantitatively assesses the impact of Israeli government actions on Palestinian militant attacks according to different categories: Islamists (Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad), nationalists (Fatah and Palestine Liberation Organization-affiliated groups), and unknown assailants from 1987–2004. Few large-n studies disaggregate among Palestinian factions. This study, however, identifies the scope of factional responses to counterinsurgency measures based on similar constituency pressures and divergent organizational objectives. For example, both indiscriminate repression targeting the wider population and discriminate concessions that reward suspected militants embolden armed actors to increase attacks across the Palestinian spectrum. But Islamists with maximalist goals significantly ramp up attacks to derail peace process-related events and disrupt concessions that benefit Palestinian society. Islamist factions fight to prevent the emergence of a two-state solution and avoid being sidelined by leading nationalist organizations, who have relatively limited objectives and are more likely to strategically reduce attacks to accommodate peace efforts. Additional findings point to other determinants of militant attacks, including religious and national holidays in multi-party armed conflicts. By analyzing diverse sets of armed actors among a broader national movement, this study contributes to research on counterinsurgency, rebel fragmentation, conflict management, and the strategic logics of terrorism.

Depth of Field: Disorienting the “Ethnographic Gaze” through Zeme Naga Realms

Depth of Field: Disorienting the “Ethnographic Gaze” through Zeme Naga Realms

When Civilians are Targets: The Fatal Effects of State Sponsored Religiously Motivated Terrorism

ABSTRACT This research investigates the link between ideology and state sponsorship of terrorist and militant groups on the propensity to attack civilian targets. I argue that religiously motivated terrorist and militant groups have a predisposition toward civilian attacks and that states will intentionally sponsor these groups because of their willingness to target civilians. The results find that religiously motivated groups attack civilian targets at higher rates when they have the resources of state sponsorship. As a result, counterterrorism and counterinsurgency measures require multilateral cooperation in hardening targets, eradicating state financing of terrorist groups, and reducing conspicuous Western presence.

Counterinsurgency as an institution: Evidence from Turkey

ABSTRACT Are emergency zones effective counterinsurgency measures? In response to Kurdish rebellion, the Turkish state put 13 provinces under emergency rule (1987–2002). In this paper, we investigate the link between emergency rule and electoral support for a pro-insurgent party. First, using the first-differencing method, we show that the tenure of provinces under emergency rule contributes to the vote share of the pro-insurgent party. Second, we investigate which counterinsurgency policies worked as a mechanism to connect emergency rule to pro-insurgent vote. We find that detentions targeting activists shifted electoral preferences toward the pro-insurgent party, whereas population displacement and party identifications with emergency rule led to an opposite outcome. These results show that (1) the legal-institutional framework of counterinsurgency affects civilians’ political perceptions in fundamental ways, and (2) it can lead to failure when its repressive arm target activism. Overall, the paper presents an institutionalist account of civilian perceptions during wartime.

Histories of Indian Citizenship in the Age of Decolonisation

AbstractThis essay discusses the important contributions of three new works on Indian citizenship by Ornit Shani, Uditi Sen, and Oliver Godsmark. Their books discuss the territorial partition of the subcontinent into India and Pakistan in 1947, the framing and inauguration of the Indian Constitution in 1950, the preparation of voter rolls and the first democratic elections, and linguistic reorganisation of Indian states in 1956, alongside questions of refugee rehabilitation, counterinsurgency measures and rising ethnonationalisms. The emphasis is not only on the legal regimes of national citizenship, but also how it is unevenly mapped and experienced. This emphasis on territoriality is an invitation to ask questions about continuity and change in the transition from empires to nation-states, as well as invented pasts and imagined futures that transcend national borders set up after the end of colonial rule.

Esterilización forzada de hombres indígenas: una faceta inexplorada

Este artículo tiene como objetivo explorar la problemática de la esterilización forzada en la población indígena, desde la perspectiva de la sociología política y en diálogo con la antropología médica, los estudios de género y los derechos humanos. Su metodología se basa en un estudio de caso en el que fueron esterilizados hombres indígenas mexicanos, y se complementa con una revisión documental que permitió la construcción de un caso teórico comparativo, a partir de lo ocurrido en Perú, ambos casos inscribiéndose en la década de 1990. El principal hallazgo radica en que la esterilización forzada, si bien obedece en gran medida a una política de control poblacional, en el caso particular de la población indígena, también se relaciona con la militarización que implicó la lucha contrainsurgente, desplegada desde el Estado frente a la actividad guerrillera que caracterizó en aquellos años a América Latina.

STRATEGY OF CIVILIAN JOINT TASK FORCE MILITIA IN COMBATING BOKO HARAM IN NORTHERN NIGERIA

Since 2013, the northern region of Nigeria has witnessed the unprecedented mobilization of militia group Civilian Joint Task Force to aid combating the Islamic fundamentalist Boko Haram. The participation of the militia was reportedly successful in routing the insurgent. Before the CJTF, Boko Haram defied most of the counterinsurgency measures of the government including the military and the political approaches. However, despite the successes of the CJTF, the strategy that influences the successes was not adequately known. This article, therefore, investigated the strategy of the CJTF that influences its successes. The study was conducted using a qualitative method designed in a case study. Data were collected from thirteen informants through in-depth interviews supported by non-participant observation. The finding shows that CJTF is a kind of informal self-defense group that emerged in response to the inadequate protections by the State. The combating successes of the group were influenced by the information-centric approach of its campaign. Careful intelligence gathering and procession along with the sociocultural linkage of the participants and in-depth knowledge over the physical terrain emerged influential to the groups’ combating. The article recommended that the Nigerian government should re-strategize its existing conventional counterinsurgency approach to adapt to the population-centric paradigm. The government should also adopt palliative measures of promoting sustainable counter-insurgency that should focus on inclusive governance, accountability, and addressing socio-economic issues of poverty and unemployment with all levels of seriousness rather than sticking to the security-only campaign.

An epidemiological approach to insurgent population modeling with the Atangana–Baleanu fractional derivative

Abstract Insurgency is a large loophole to any nation’s finances because of the monumental costs associated with fighting it. In this study, an epidemiological approach to modeling the dynamics of the spread of insurgents is introduced. Stability analysis of the steady states of the system were performed and the insurgency prevalence number R 0 , which is analogous to the reproduction number in epidemiological studies was obtained using the next generation matrix method. A fractional version of the model was introduced using the Atangana–Baleanu derivative and numerical simulations were performed for better understanding of the dynamics of the system. For effective counter-insurgency measures, the local and global sensitivity analysis of the insurgency prevalence number R 0 and the endemic states with respect to the parameters that define them were performed. Sensitivity analysis shows that counter-insurgency efforts must focus on increasing the recovery rate of insurgents and reducing the rate of radicalization of civilians. The developed model is a suitable tool with great potential for drawing inference in driving counter-insurgency policy making processes.