Counterfactual Generation Research Articles

The Role of Counterfactual Thinking in Reasoning

Counterfactual generation is an important part of reasoning. Both the judgment of events and affective reactions to those events depend not only on the events themselves, but on counterfactual alternatives to those events. Counterfactual thinking serves several positive functions. However, there are also dysfunctional aspects. First, judgments of general versus specific instances are often inconsistent, and this leads to problematic, irrational decisions. We explain these inconsistencies by suggesting that specific instances easily afford counterfactuals, and are judged in the context of these counterfactuals. Alternatively, general cases are evaluated in terms of quite different contrast cases, global expectations. Second, in assigning blame for the negative outcome of a chain of events, people assign too much causality to recent events. Our explanation is that these recent events are most accessible and are most likely to be mutated in the course of counterfactual generation. Such mutability is important in causal assignment. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The Impact of Perceived Control on the Imagination of Better and Worse Possible Worlds

Effects of perceived control and close alternative outcomes on counterfactual generation were examined. Subjects played a computer-simulated "wheel of fortune"game along with another player (a confederate) in which two wheels spun simultaneously. Subjects had either control over spinning the wheel or control over which wheel would determine their outcome and which would determine the other player's outcome. Subjects experienced either a "near big win, " with a loss by the other player, or a "near loss, " with a big win by the other player. Results showed that (a) subjects generated counterfactuals about the aspect of the game they controlled, (b) the direction of these counterfactuals corresponded to the close outcome associated with the aspect they controlled, and (c) these counterfactuals predicted affective responses to the outcome of the spin. Cognitive and motivational implications of the influence of perceived control on counterfactual generation are discussed.

The Mental Simulation of Better and Worse Possible Worlds

Counterfactual thinking involves the imagination of non-factual alternatives to reality. We investigated the spontaneous generation of both upward counterfactuals, which improve on reality, and downward counterfactuals, which worsen reality. All subjects gained $5 playing a computer-simulated blackjack game. However, this outcome was framed to be perceived as either a win, a neutral event, or a loss. "Loss" frames produced more upward and fewer downward counterfactuals than did either "win" or "neutral" frames, but the overall prevalence of counterfactual thinking did not vary with outcome valence. In addition, subjects who expected to play the game again made more upward counterfactuals and were less satisfied with the outcome than were subjects who did not expect to play again. However, once subjects saw the cards from which they could have selected had they "hit" again (two winning cards and two losing cards), all subjects generated primarily upward counterfactuals and showed a corresponding decrease in satisfaction. These results implicate both cognitive and motivational factors in the generation of counterfactuals and tell us something about the functional value of counterfactual thinking: downward counterfactuals provide comfort; upward counterfactuals prepare one for the future.