Costs Of Climate Change Mitigation Research Articles

Near-linear cost increase to reduce climate-change risk

One approach in climate-change policy is to set normative long-term targets first and then infer the implied emissions pathways. An important example of a normative target is to limit the global-mean temperature change to a certain maximum. In general, reported cost estimates for limiting global warming often rise rapidly, even exponentially, as the scale of emission reductions from a reference level increases. This rapid rise may suggest that more ambitious policies may be prohibitively expensive. Here, we propose a probabilistic perspective, focused on the relationship between mitigation costs and the likelihood of achieving a climate target. We investigate the qualitative, functional relationship between the likelihood of achieving a normative target and the costs of climate-change mitigation. In contrast to the example of exponentially rising costs for lowering concentration levels, we show that the mitigation costs rise proportionally to the likelihood of meeting a temperature target, across a range of concentration levels. In economic terms investing in climate mitigation to increase the probability of achieving climate targets yields “constant returns to scale,” because of a counterbalancing rapid rise in the probabilities of meeting a temperature target as concentration is lowered.

Emissions trading and transaction costs: analyzing the flaws in the discussion

Although emissions trading lowers the costs of climate change mitigation, transaction costs (e.g. to find a trading partner) may reduce its cost-effectiveness. Some economists claim that transaction costs for Joint Implementation (JI) and Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects will be higher than for International Emissions Trading (IET) transfers, arguing that projects require advance approval whereas permit transfers can be automatically registered and checked annually. However, this article demonstrates the incompleteness of their views by both analyzing empirical data and discussing the theoretical conditions under which transaction costs decrease for JI and CDM and increase for IET.

Time flexibility to reduce climate change mitigation costs for Japanese electricity supply sector

The idea of greenhouse-gas credit borrowing in global or national context faces severe problems such as international and intergenerational equity issues. Though the merit of cost reduction is obvious, the possibility is small for such a scheme to be massively allowed in future international negotiations. Still, there is a good chance for each specific player to use the idea of time flexibility. Through analytic and numerical model analysis, this paper demonstrates the merits of time flexibility on a sector base. First, the derived analytic solution for time paths of marginal mitigation costs gives an insight to the relation between timing and costs of mitigation action. Second, the numerical model analysis for the Japanese electricity supply sector shows that time flexibility can drastically reduce costs for mitigation in the sector. Time flexibility is important specifically to the Japanese electricity supply sector because (1) the sector is capital intensive and has long capital turnover time and (2) available mitigation option is limited for the near future. A sector like the Japanese utility sector needs some kind of mechanism to virtually realize the merits of using time flexibility. Domestic and international emission trading systems are the most promising candidate to date. © 2000 Scripta Technica, Electr Eng Jpn, 131(1): 68–77, 2000

時間的柔軟性を考慮した電力供給部門の温暖化問題対応戦略-電源構成モデルを用いて-

時間的柔軟性を考慮した電力供給部門の温暖化問題対応戦略-電源構成モデルを用いて-