Cost Modeling Approach Research Articles

96/01684 Reliability pricing of electric power service: A probalistic production cost modeling approach

96/01684 Reliability pricing of electric power service: A probalistic production cost modeling approach

Reliability pricing of electric power service: A probabilistic production cost modeling approach

We develop a pricing model for electric power service that accounts for customers' reliability preferences as well as the randomness of outages in the power-supply system. The model combines features of both reliability pricing and real-time pricing. A production cost simulation submodel is used to estimate expected total and marginal production costs on an hourly basis, as well as system reliability measured by the loss-of-load probability. These estimates are inputs to a welfare-maximization model with revenue constraints differentiated by customer class. The methodology is illustrated by a numerical application with typical power system and market data. The results show that the proposed pricing approach is significantly superior to spot and Ramsey pricing in terms of economic efficiency, energy conservation, and generation-capacity requirements.

Space Transportation System Operations and Support Cost Modeling Approach

Space Transportation System Operations and Support Cost Modeling Approach

A cost modeling approach to engine optimization

Greater emphasis on cost control in all phases of the engine program life cycle has resulted in life cycle cost (LCC) becoming a figure of merit for engine optimization studies This paper discusses a study conducted by Garrett using a cost modeling approach to further refine engine cycles and configurations for an optimum weapon system LCC The cost model is described, and the results of the study are included to illustrate the impact of this type of study on deriving additional savings in total weapon system cost and weight It was concluded from the study that LCC is a sensitive tool for the engine designer for engine optimization in terms of both cycle and configuration selection The sensitivity study began with the baseline design derived from a conventional approach Nine engine parameters were changed, resulting in a 16% improvement in engine thrust/weight ratio and a 10% improvement in fuel consumption Development strategy studies indicated that optimization of the balance of effort between design and testing could benefit engine maturity at initial operational capability (IOC)

Computerized regional air pollution abatement and fuels use modeling

The relationships between source emissions, meteorological conditions, and the air quality which results are very complex. The concentrations of pollutants in the atmosphere are controlled by variables of time, space, and various chemical and photochemical reactions. Knowledge of these relationships is quite important since air pollutant standards set down under the Clean Air Act refer to pollutant concentrations in the ambient air. The states are responsible for developing their own State Implementation Plans (SIPs) for meeting the standards in each of the Air Quality Control Regions (AQCRs) in the State. The thrust of an SIP is the control of concentrations through the control of emissions. Application of a least cost modeling approach to the development or modification of SIPs may permit meeting of standards at a savings of capital expenditures, operating and maintenance costs, and scarce clean fuels. A series of computer models developed under contract to and modified by EPA to support such analysis is introduced and the application of the model to a sample air quality control region is discussed.