Mitigation Costs Research Articles

Environmental Tax and Wage Inequality when Pollution Impacts Health or Agricultural Productivity in Developing Economy

Many developing countries face severe environmental pollution and the preservation policy, such as the environmental tax, is widely adopted by many governments. This paper investigates the impacts of an increase in environment tax on wage inequality between skilled and unskilled labor when pollution affects labor health or agricultural productivity. We first build a basic model and assume pollution affects labor health and drives parts of labor out of the factor market. And we obtain that the elasticity of substitution between labor and dirty input in the unskilled sector determines the result of an increase in environmental tax on wage inequality. And when skilled and unskilled labor raise its cost of self mitigation, wage inequality will be narrowed down.The robustness of the basic model on the impact of a stricter environmental protection and the self-mitigation cost of unskilled labor is substantiated by the extended model that incorporates the bad externality of pollution on agricultural production; however, the impact of increased cost of mitigation of skilled labor on wage gap in the extended model is different, depending on the elasticity of pollution.

Costs of forest carbon sequestration in the presence of climate change impacts

Forests play a critical role in mitigating climate change, and, at the same time, are predicted to experience large-scale impacts of climate change that will affect the efficiency of forests in mitigation efforts. Projections of future carbon sequestration potential typically do not account for the changing economic costs of timber and agricultural production and land use change. We integrated a dynamic forward-looking economic optimization model of global land use with results from a dynamic global vegetation model and meta-analysis of climate impacts on crop yields to project future carbon sequestration in forests. We find that the direct impacts of climate change on forests, represented by changes in dieback and forest growth, and indirect effects due to lost crop productivity, together result in a net gain of 17 Gt C in aboveground forest carbon storage from 2000 to 2100. Increases in climate-driven forest growth rates will result in an 81%–99% reduction in costs of reaching a range of global forest carbon stock targets in 2100, while the increases in dieback rates are projected to raise the costs by 57%–132%. When combined, these two direct impacts are expected to reduce the global costs of climate change mitigation in forests by more than 70%. Inclusion of the third, indirect impact of climate change on forests through reduction in crop yields, and the resulting expansion of cropland, raises the costs by 11%–38% and widens the uncertainty range. While we cannot rule out the possibility of climate change increasing mitigation costs, the central outcomes of the simultaneous impacts of climate change on forests and agriculture are 64%–86% reductions in the mitigation costs. Overall, the results suggest that concerns about climate driven dieback in forests should not inhibit the ambitions of policy makers in expanding forest-based climate solutions.

Energy mix for net zero CO2 emissions by 2050 in Japan

AbstractThis study investigated cost‐effective energy strategies for realizing net zero CO2 emissions in Japan by 2050, employing an energy system optimization model with hourly electricity balances. The detailed temporal resolution enables the model to capture the intermittency of variable renewable energy (VRE) and the costs of system integration measures. Siting constraints on VRE, such as prohibiting solar PV and onshore wind developments in forests and offshore wind developments inside fishery rights areas, are incorporated in the model to reflect the environmental protection and social acceptance perspectives. Simulation results imply that a well‐balanced power generation mix, combining renewables, nuclear, gas‐fired with carbon capture and storage, as well as ammonia‐fired, would contribute to curbing mitigation costs. In contrast, a simulation case with very high VRE penetration poses economic challenges. The average shadow price of electricity in 2050 in a 100% renewables case (RE100) is projected to be more than doubled from a reference case which is based on middle‐of‐the‐road assumptions. Marginal CO2 abatement cost in 2050 increases from 49,200 JPY/tCO2 in the reference case to 75,300 JPY/tCO2 in the RE100 case. The economic viability of high VRE penetration is improved by relaxing the siting constraints, although it may raise environmental and social concerns.

Upstream oil and gas infrastructure and wildfire burn areas in the western U.S.: Assessing current and future risks

BACKGROUND AND AIM: The extent and intensity of wildfires has worsened in recent years, a trend that is expected to continue as climate change worsens. The western U.S., a region with numerous oil basins, has a particularly high wildfire risk. Wildfires damage to oil and gas wells may result in emissions of air toxics and higher costs for safe well retirement. We aimed to determine the extent to which oil and gas wells were located within and near wildfire burn areas in the western U.S. in each year between 1984 and 2020 and to identify wells at high risk of wildfire exposure in present-day and under projected risk in mid- and late century METHODS: We obtained oil and gas wells data from Enverus DrillingInfo, population data from the US Census Bureau, wildfire burn areas data from National Interagency Fire Center, and data on areas with high projected future wildfire risk from Argonne National Laboratory. We assessed which wells were inside or near (≤1 km) wildfire burn areas from 1984-2020 and estimated the number of people living near burn areas with wells. We then determined the count of active and plugged wells in areas with high current and projected wildfire risk. RESULTS: We observed that an estimated 31,385 (1.9%) of the 1.65 million wells in the western U.S. were located in wildfire burn areas during the study period and an additional 52,815 (3.2%) were within 1 km of a burn area. CONCLUSIONS: Wildfire damage to oil and gas wells may increase pollution in nearby communities, raise operator mitigation costs, and increase climate change through fugitive fossil fuel emissions. Policymakers may wish to consider wildfire risk in oil and gas operation regulation. KEYWORDS: oil and gas, climate change, wildfire, exposure, spatial analysis

Dynamic-Line-Rating-Based Robust Corrective Dispatch Against Load Redistribution Attacks With Unknown Objectives

Load redistribution (LR) attacks have proven to be hard-detectable and damaging, which require effective corrective schemes to mitigate the impact on power grid operations. Traditional game-theoretic methods and corrective dispatches employing static line rating (SLR) have been studied for attack mitigation based on specific attack objectives but have high dispatch cost and limited performance of attack mitigation. This is because the power transfer capacity of the existing transmission network is underestimated with SLR, and in practical operations, the specific objective of the adversary is not available to the defender, which would introduce uncertainties to the design of corrective schemes. As such, this article incorporates the dynamic line rating (DLR) technology, which enhances the power transfer capability of the existing network, to develop the cost-effective corrective dispatch for mitigating LR attacks with unknown objectives. Specifically, a DLR-based robust corrective (DRC) dispatch model is presented, which guarantees the system security as well as the economic performance. A methodology utilizing the robust counterpart technique and column constraint generation (CCG) algorithm is proposed to solve the dispatch model in a decomposition framework. Case studies based on the IEEE 14- and 118-bus systems verify the performance of the proposed DRC dispatch in enhancing the cyber–physical security of power grids.

Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Costs of Reduced Nitrogen Fertilizer

The reduction of nitrogen (N) fertilizer use is a possible greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation option, whereas cost estimation highly depends on assumptions of the yield response function. This paper analyzes the potential and range of GHG mitigation costs with reduced N fertilizer application based on empirical yield response data for winter rye (Secale cereale L.) and rapeseed (Brassica napus L.) from field experiments from 2013 to 2020 in Brandenburg, Germany. The field experiments included four to five N rates as mineral fertilizer treatments. Three different functional forms (linear-plateau, quadratic, and quadratic-plateau) were estimated to model yield response as a function of N supply. Economic calculations were based on relevant price–cost ratios. The results indicate that the opportunity costs of applying less fertilizer and the resulting GHG mitigation thereof vary in a great range across the years and crops estimated by different yield response functions. The linear-plateau function predominantly results in lower GHG mitigation costs than the quadratic and the quadratic-plateau function. On average, over eight years, a moderate reduction of N fertilizer (up to 20 kg/ha) offers a cost-efficient option for mitigating GHG emissions below EUR 50 per ton of CO2eq, even resulting in net profit gain in some cases.

Optimal carbon taxation and horizontal equity: A welfare-theoretic approach with application to German household data

We develop a model of optimal taxation and redistribution under an ambitious climate target. We take into account vertical income differences, but also explicitly capture horizontal equity concerns by considering heterogeneous energy efficiencies. By deriving first- and second-best rules for policy instruments including carbon and labor taxes, transfers and energy subsidies, we investigate analytically how vertical and horizontal inequality is considered in the welfare maximizing tax structure. We calibrate the model to German household data and a 30 percent emission reduction goal and show that redistribution of carbon tax revenues via household-specific transfers is the first-best policy. Under plausible assumptions on inequality aversion, transfers to energy-intensive households should be about five times higher than transfers to energy-efficient households. Equal per-capita transfers do not require to observe households’ efficiency type, but increase equity-weighted mitigation costs by around 5 percent compared to the first-best. Mitigation costs increase by less, if the government can implement a uniform clean energy subsidy or household-specific tax-subsidy schemes on energy consumption and labor income that target heterogeneous energy efficiencies. Horizontal equity concerns may therefore constitute a new second-best rationale for clean energy policies or differentiated energy taxes.

Assessing and mitigating risk in airport greenfield and redevelopment programmes

Security risk assessments at airports are an important practice to identify and mitigate threats of concern. Increasingly, airport risk assessments are evolving in three ways. First, conducting design-basis risk assessments — prior to new construction or redevelopment — provides value in identifying and mitigating risks during the design phase, where mitigation costs are significantly less than post-construction retro-fitting. Secondly, new threats emerge periodically, such as cybersecurity, insider threats and drones, which require creative mitigation measures. Thirdly, airports are finding value in addressing risks from an ‘all-hazards' standpoint — natural hazards, climate change, ageing infrastructure, technology resilience and human factors. This paper examines risk assessment processes, differences between existing facility and design-basis risk assessments, and processes and challenges associated with all-hazards risk assessment and mitigation.

Impacts of decarbonization technologies in air transport on the global energy system

In pursuing global carbon neutrality, understanding the potential roles of decarbonization technologies in air transport, such as electric aircraft, hydrogen-powered aircraft, bio-jet fuel and synthetic fuel in the global energy system, is important. This study systematically and quantitatively analyzed the impacts of these decarbonization technologies on the global energy system under the Paris temperature goals. The model analysis showed that the introduction of electric aircraft, hydrogen-powered aircraft and synthetic fuel into the aviation sector would contribute to the cost-effective achievement of emissions reductions in line with Paris goals. For achieving < 2 °C with > 66 % probability, the introduction of electric- and hydrogen-powered aircraft, and synthetic fuel would decrease mitigation costs by 2,743 billion USD/yr and 135 billion USD/yr in 2100, respectively. However, there are no feasible solutions without these three technologies under assumed conditions. This study illustrates the crucial role of these technologies in long-term decarbonizing pathways, affecting global petroleum consumption .

Recent Applications of Flash Flood Hazard Assessment Techniques: Case Studies from Egypt and Saudi Arabia

Flash floods are severe natural disasters due to their suddenness, frequency, and destruction. Every year, flash floods occur in Egypt and Saudi Arabia, which are located in the heart of the Middle East. Extensive areas in Egypt and Saudi Arabia are covered by mountainous topography. Intense rainfall can generate flash floods with their magnitude dependent on geomorphology and storm characteristics. Flash flood hazard assessment is a feasible way to mitigate potential damage and losses. Illumination, review, and comparison of assessment techniques of flash flood hazards represent an urgent necessity to evaluate advances and challenges in this discipline. Google-scholar and Scopus were used to collect 50 recent scientific papers, most of them published between 2011 and 2021, using the keywords: floods, hazards, assessment, Egypt, Saudi Arabia. Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information systems (GIS) are the cornerstones of these studies, which include the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and geoprocessing tools. The two items facilitate the calculation of morphometric parameters. Dividing the area and determining the hazard level were the main steps in flash flood hazard assessment. The considered studies relied on varied sets of morphometric parameters that ranged from 3 to 24 morphometric parameters. Area, ruggedness ratio, basin shape index, stream frequency, slope index, and drainage density are the common parameters in the assessment of flash flood hazards. In a flood zone, buildings made from brick have better sustainability in terms of both global warming mitigation and life cycle cost than other materials. Future studies are essential to illustrate the relationships between different morphometric parameters and flash flood hazard degree through field data and define a reliable unified set of morphometric parameters to assess the flash flood hazard degree.

Air quality and health benefits of increasing carbon mitigation tech-innovation in China.

Most studies on the short-term local benefits of carbon mitigation technologies on air quality improvement and health focus on specific technologies such as biofuels or carbon sequestration technologies, while ignoring the overall role of the growing scale of low-carbon technologies. Based on STIRPAT model and EKC hypothesis, this paper takes 30 provinces in China from 2004 to 2016 as research samples. We builded the panel double fixed effect model to empirical analysis of climate change on carbon mitigation tech-innovation suppressing the influence of haze pollution, on this basis, the mediating effect model was used to explore the mediation function of industrial structure and energy structure. Meanwhile, we drawed on the existing studies on air quality and health benefits, and quantify the co-benefits of carbon mitigation tech-innovation on health through the equivalent substitution formula. It shows that a 1% increase in the number of low-carbon patent applications can reduce haze pollution by 0.066%. According to this estimate, to 2029, China's carbon mitigation tech-innovation could reduce PM2.5 concentration to 15μg/m3 preventing 5.597 million premature deaths. Moreover, carbon mitigation tech-innovation can also indirectly inhibit haze pollution by triggering more systematic economic structure changes such as energy and industrial structure. Additionally, we found that the role of gray tech-innovation (GT) related to improving the efficiency of fossil energy is stronger than that of clean technology (CT) related to the use of renewable energy. This suggests that for a large economy such as China, where coal is still the dominant source of energy consumption, the short-term local benefits of improving air quality and health through the use of gray tech-innovation to improve energy and industrial structure are still important to balance the cost of carbon mitigation.

Biophysical and economic constraints on China’s natural climate solutions

Natural climate solutions (NCS) are strategies for climate mitigation in the land sector that increase carbon storage or avoid GHG emissions. Here we estimate China’s historic NCS mitigation at 0.6 (0.5–0.7) PgCO2e yr−1 (95% CI) during 2000–2020 (8% of fossil CO2 emissions in the contemporary period). Through new NCS activities, the future maximum potential for NCS is projected at 0.6 (0.3–1.0) PgCO2e yr−1 (6% of fossil CO2 emissions) during 2020–2030 and 1.0 (0.6–1.4) PgCO2e yr−1 during 2020–2060. Of the future NCS potentials, 26–31%, 62–65% and 90–91% can be achieved at mitigation costs of US$10, US$50 and US$100 (MgCO2e)−1, respectively. Thus, NCS can contribute substantially to China’s Nationally Determined Contributions over the next 10 to 40 years but require a national strategy to reach climate goals and ensure co-benefits for people and nature.

Repairing What Policy Is Missing Out on: A Constructive View on Prospects and Preconditions for Sustainable Biobased Economy Options to Mitigate and Adapt to Climate Change

Biomass use for energy and materials is, on the one hand, one of the key mitigation options to reach the 1.5 °C GMT target set in the Paris Agreement, as highlighted by the IPCC and many other key analyses. On the other hand, particularly in parts of the EU, a strong negative connotation has emerged in public debate and EC policy, with a particular emphasis on the (presumed) displacement effect in markets and land use. This is a remarkable contrast because the reasons to use sustainable biomass, on the one hand, and the possibilities and synergies for supplying sustainable biomass, on the other, are underpinned with strong evidence, also providing insights on how displacement issues can be avoided. Sustainable biomass supplies can contribute 20–30% of the future global and European energy supply, leading to reduced overall mitigation costs, including realizing the net CO2 removal from the atmosphere using BECCS concepts. This paper highlights which options, pathways and preconditions are key to achieving such a substantial contribution of sustainable biomass in future (2050) energy and material supply (with a focus on the European setting). By pinpointing how “biomass can be done right” and how important synergies can be achieved via better agricultural methods, the restoration of marginal and degraded lands and the adaptation of climate change, a different policy agenda emerges in sharp contrast to how a biobased economy has been framed in recent years. It is recommended that future policy priorities, particularly at the EU level, take a more integral view on the synergy between the role of biomass in the energy transition, climate adaptation and mitigation, better agriculture and the better use of land in general. Strategies to achieve such positive results typically require an alignment between renewable energy, and agricultural, environmental, mitigation and adaptation policies, which is a largely missing nexus in different policy arenas. Resolving this lack of alignment offers a major opportunity, globally, to contribute to the European Green deal and improve energy security.

Technological roadmap towards optimal decarbonization development of China's iron and steel industry

China's iron and steel (IS) industry contributes approximately 16 % of the nation's total CO2 emissions. This study evaluates the environmental impact of each step in the production process based on the life cycle assessment method. It then explores potential deep decarbonisation pathways, developing an integrated dynamic model to meet the carbon neutrality target. The results reveal three primary findings. (1) In 2020, the blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace contributed significantly to the global warming potential −1.77 E−8 kg CO2 equivalents per year (eq/yr) higher than the electric arc furnace—and the blast furnace process makes the largest contribution in ironmaking (8.9E−9 kg CO2 eq/yr). (2) Converter negative energy steelmaking technology has the highest energy savings at 39.07 million tons of coal equivalent (Mtce) and an emissions-reduction potential of 72.01 Mt. Its mitigation cost is 69 CNY/t CO2, followed by thick-layer sintering (30.21 Mtce, 61.21 Mt. and 70 CNY/t CO2) and the application of dry vacuum system for molten steel degassing circulation (26.17 Mtce, 56.03 Mt. and 102 CNY/t CO2). (3) Technological improvement could significantly impact the IS industry, reducing CO2 emissions through production structure improvement, technological development and ultra-low emissions technology, from 789 Mt. in a business-as-usual scenario to 516 Mt., 261 Mt. and 157 Mt. in 2060, respectively.

Techno-Economic Assessment of Voltage Sags Mitigation in Distribution System Connected to DGs

The penetration of DG in electrical distribution systems has many benefits. The paper highlights the impact of DG penetration at different load centers and different operating conditions in a distribution feeder. The impact of DG penetration on feeder voltage profile that depends on the size and location of DG in the system is illustrated. Mitigating methods are used to reduce the effect of voltage disturbances. Economic assessment studies are used for assisting in the economic choice of mitigating methods. Economical aspects of distribution systems connected to DGs are considered through the analysis of the life cycle cost of these distribution generation sources. Maintenance strategies are illustrated and discussed to keep these sources always ready for operation regarding minimization of maintenance cost. Technical and economical assessments depend on the availability of historical data for disturbances cost including damages and cost of disturbance mitigation using different mitigation methods. These data are difficult to be available for different types of loads. Therefore, load indices, K1, K2, and K3, are proposed in this paper for the different loads as referring it to reference load has available data to overcome the challenge of data shortage. Also, a techno-economic assessment index F is proposed for the assessment of the impact of mitigating device improving cost and its feasibility. PSCAD/EMTDC simulation software package is used in this analysis. The results show that the proposed techno-economic assessment methodology facilitates the decision of choosing the mitigation method for power quality problems and to overcome the challenge of data shortage in the techno-economic assessment.

Analysis of the Operation Characteristics of a Hybrid Heat Pump in an Existing Multifamily House Based on Field Test Data and Simulation

Unrenovated multifamily houses in Germany are mostly heated by fossil heat generators; therefore, measures are required for CO2 emission reduction. The use of air–water heat pumps is restricted by high required flow temperatures and heat output but can be mitigated by hybrid heat pumps. To limit additional operation costs by the heat pump, a new operation strategy is introduced in this study, which allows to maintain a target CO2 emission. The operation strategy is applied in a field trial in a small unrenovated multifamily house built in 1964. A thermohydraulic simulation model is verified and is used in full-year simulations to apply improvement measures and compare the new control strategy with existing optimizing strategies. The results show that the control onto target emissions is possible and limits additional costs but can also result in higher CO2 mitigation costs, making it less favorable. The hybrid heat pump reduces the direct fossil CO2 emissions by 61% (in total by 22%); thus, it is a relevant solution for multifamily houses, especially within a further decarbonized electrical grid.

Facing Change: Gender and Climate Change Attitudes Worldwide

Gender differences in concern about climate change are highly correlated with economic development: when countries are wealthier, a gap emerges whereby women are more likely than men to express concern about our changing climate. These differences stem from cross-national variation in men’s attitudes. Men, more than women, tend to be less concerned about climate change when countries are wealthier. This article develops a new theory about the perceived costs and benefits of climate mitigation policy to explain this pattern. At the country level, the perceived benefits of mitigation tend to decrease with economic development, whereas the perceived costs increase. At the individual level, the perceived costs of mitigation tend to increase with economic development for men more than for women. Evidence from existing surveys from every world region, an original 10-country survey in the Americas and Europe, and focus groups in Peru and the United States support the theory.

Analyzing the techno-economic role of nuclear power in the Dutch net-zero energy system transition

To analyze the role of nuclear power in an integrated energy system, we used the IESA-Opt-N cost minimization model focusing on four key themes: system-wide impacts of nuclear power, uncertain technological costs, flexible generation, and cross-border electricity trade. We demonstrate that the LCOE (levelized cost of electricity) alone should not be used to demonstrate the economic feasibility of a power generation technology. For instance, under the default techno-economic assumptions, particularly the 5% discount rate and exogenous electricity trade potentials, it is cost-optimal for the Netherlands to invest in 9.6 GWe nuclear capacity by 2050. However, its LCOE is 34 €/MWh higher than offshore wind. Moreover, we found that nuclear power investments can reduce demand for variable renewable energy sources in the short term and higher energy independence (i.e., lower imports of natural gas, biomass, and electricity) in the long term. Furthermore, investing in nuclear power can reduce the mitigation costs of the Dutch energy system by 1.6% and 6.2% in 2040 and 2050, and 25% lower national CO2 prices by 2050. However, this cost reduction is not significant given the odds of higher nuclear financing costs and longer construction times. In addition, with 3% interest rate value (e.g., EU taxonomy support), even high cost nuclear (10 B€/GW) can be cost-effective in the Netherlands. In conclusion, under the specific assumptions of this study, nuclear power can play a complementary role (in parallel to the wind and solar power) in supporting the Dutch energy transition from the sole techno-economic point of view.

The role of nonfood bioethanol production in neutralizing China's transport carbon emissions: An integrated life cycle environmental-economic assessment

Lignocellulosic bioethanol may contribute significantly to neutralizing global greenhouse gases emissions as an alternative fuel, but controversies have increasingly arisen in relevant researches as to whether the ethanol production pathway is environmental- and cost-competitive or not and which hotspots may impede its commercial-scale deployment. Here we explore a cost-effective biorefinery pathway of sugarcane bagasse, molasses and Dioscorea composite hemls, from an integrated environmental and economic assessment model to evaluate the performance of bioethanol, as an alternative to gasoline, characterized by gCO2eq and MSP, in terms of its emission mitigation potential and cost, as well as its other environmental impacts with the CML method of assessment. Specifically, this study examines the production of 1 ton bioethanol with the considered environmental and economic indicators by three defensible allocation approaches affecting the total mitigation potential with anywhere between 20% and 82.5%, where the electricity consumed in the process of the bioethanol conversion is produced with more sustainable means, increasing the emission savings by up to 48.5%. The economic competitivity have also been examined to promote dialogues across environmental and economic fields, exemplified by the emission mitigation cost with the calculation of minimum selling price at 49.1/ton CO2eq, comparable with the EU-ETS carbon permit price. Signs of advantages abound in the current emission trading scheme, where the decrease in carbon tax levels can cut down the price of bioethanol production, especially with regard to the supply chain collaboration with electricity, and thus enhance the overall revenue of neutralizing transport emissions.

Contrasting suitability and ambition in regional carbon mitigation

Substantially enhancing carbon mitigation ambition is a crucial step towards achieving the Paris climate goal. Yet this attempt is hampered by poor knowledge on the potential cost and benefit of emission mitigation for each emitter. Here we use a global economic model to assess the mitigation costs for 27 major emitting countries and regions, and further contrast the costs against the potential benefits of mitigation valued as avoided social cost of carbon and the mitigation ambition of each region. We find a strong negative spatial correlation between cost and benefit of mitigating each ton of carbon dioxide. Meanwhile, the relative suitability of carbon mitigation, defined as the ratio of normalized benefit to normalized cost, also shows a considerable geographical mismatch with the mitigation ambition of emitters indicated in their first submitted nationally determined contributions. Our work provides important information to improve concerted climate action and formulate more efficient carbon mitigation strategies.