Cost Deviation Research Articles

A system design for cocoa beans transportation of premium products

Premium chocolate product such as praline, chocolate bars, confectionery, and chocolate drink need a premium quality of cocoa beans. Scarcity of sources and less quality in the existing cocoa beans supply chain affecting a sustainable production and increase operational cost. Improvement in cocoa supply chain which is consisting of farmers-farmers group- transporter/logistic provider- agro industry will provide cocoa beans availability and optimum operational cost of premium product-agro industry. Transportation sector which support supply chain has an important role for ensuring the distribution of cocoa beans delivery in time. The source availability and transportation mode are the requirements that analyzed in Business Process Modelling (BPMN) to minimize transportation cost and maximize quantity of cocoa bean demand. The formulation of those will be optimized by Goal Programming. The results is deviation of transportation cost 2,083 rupiahs per kilogram when supply meets the agro industry demand and there is no deviation of transportation unit when using six unit of truck. It’s reveal that the availability of cocoa bean to meet agro industry demand will give cost efficiency.

An improved robust multi-objective optimization of structure with random parameters

The robust multi-objective optimization is conventionally achieved by minimizing expected values and standard deviations of performance functions by imposing equal importance to each individual gradient of the performance function. But, it is well established in the literature that all the gradients are not of equal importance to capture the presence of uncertainty. In this work, an improved sensitivity importance–based robust multi-objective optimization approach is proposed. The basic idea is to improve the robustness of the performance by defining a new index using the importance factors, proportional to the importance of the gradients of the performance. The efficiency of the proposed robust multi-objective optimization approach is investigated by optimizing a vibrating platform for maximum frequency and minimum cost. The minimization of the associated standard deviation of cost and frequency is also treated as objective functions. Noting the limitations of the conventional weighted sum method or ε-constraint method for solution of such robust multi-objective optimization problems, non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II has been adopted for solution. The proposed robust multi-objective optimization yields more efficient Pareto fronts, that is, making a design less-sensitive to the variation in the input variables compared to the conventional robust multi-objective optimization approach.

Disturbance management for vehicle routing with time window changes

In this paper, the issue of vehicle routing with time window changes is addressed. Considering the uncertainty of customers’ time windows in distribution activities, this paper used the theory of disturbance management. The objective is to minimize the negative impacts of the perturbation attributed to time window changes. The identification of time window change that would cause a perturbation to the current distribution plan was analyzed. In order to measure the negative impact, three metrics of disturbance were analyzed in this paper, including path deviation, service time deviation and cost deviation. Based on vehicles’ positions at the disturbance time, a disturbance recovery model regarding to time window changes of customers is established. A dispatching method that is based on tabu search was proposed to obtain a timely and optimal solution. Finally, the computational experiments indicate that the proposed method is feasible for solving this real-word problem and is more effective than other incident-handling methods.

Анализ применимости подходов к проведению факторного анализа в ходе мониторинга отклонений стоимостных показателей инвестиционных проектов нефтегазовой отрасли

Strategic projects of oil and gas companies regularly overcome the budget. High capitalization of these projects leads to the fact that even small relative cost deviations result in significant additional investments. Under present conditions of economic and political pressure, characterized by a limited opportunity to raise loan capital, there can be no additional investments leading to impossibility of new oil and gas projects realization or stop those being realized. One of the ways to prevent such a negative scenario is to improve the project planning system taking into account the results of monitoring the project portfolio cost deviations. It will not only allow companies to take into account the causes of deviations in several projects, but also help to develop and implement proactive measures.

Diagnose the Causes of Cost Deviation in Highway Construction Projects by Using Root Cause Analysis Techniques

The root cause analysis techniques are a good choice to be adopted to diagnose the root causes of cost deviation in highway projects. Many root cause analysis tools have emerged from the literature as generic standards for identifying root causes such as Fishbone diagram, Pareto diagram, and the 5-Why analysis. This study diagnosed twenty causes of cost deviation in highway projects in Republic of Iraq which they divided into three main groups (planning causes, designing causes, and execution causes). Pareto analysis showed that eleven causes out of twenty causes represent the most important causes of cost deviation, these eleven causes had been filtered by 5-Why analysis, this analysis concluded that the unavailability of enough information about the project is a root cause for planning causes group, while the clarity lack of the owner requirements is a root cause for designing causes group and finally, the poor efficiency of the administrative staff is a root cause for execution causes group.

Model predictive control synthesis for constrained Markovian jump linear systems with bounded disturbance

For controller design, exogenous disturbance, which commonly exists in real applications, is an important factor to be considered. However, the existing results on constrained model predictive control (MPC) design for Markovian jump linear systems (MJLS) mainly focused on the disturbance-free case. This motivated to study constrained MPC synthesis for MJLS with bounded additive disturbance. By projecting the desired closed loop trajectories onto a set of predetermined trajectories, the adopted predictive control law is a sum of these corresponding stabilising control laws. Constraints are guaranteed by restricting the augmented state into a maximal output admissible set. Then the MPC algorithm is given by optimising the infinite horizon sum of deviation of the quadratic cost from its steady-state value. Under the MPC algorithm, the long run average cost is proved to be less than or equal to its steady-state value, which equals to the optimal one when one of the constituent control laws is chosen to be the optimal control law. The optimisation and analysis of determination of projection coefficients have also been discussed. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the proposed results.

Quantitative assessments of performance and robustness of maintenance policies for stochastically deteriorating production systems

Over the last few decades, many efforts have been invested in improving the economic performances of maintenance policies for stochastically deteriorating production systems. However, with the development of complex production systems, maintenance managers are interested not only in cost saving, but also in how to trustworthily plan and allocate the required maintenance budget. In this context, the robustness of maintenance policies which is related to the maintenance cost variability from a renewal cycle to another plays a pivotal role. This research deals with a quantitative approach to jointly assess the economic performance and robustness of some representatives of two most well-known classes of maintenance policies: time-based and condition-based maintenance. To this end, we first propose a new cost criterion which combines the long-run expected cost rate and standard deviation of maintenance cost per renewal cycle. Then, we develop and compare the associated mathematical cost models of the considered maintenance policies on the basis of the Gamma degradation process and the theory of stochastic renewal processes. The comparison results under different situations of maintenance costs and system characteristics show that the optimal configuration of maintenance policies gives the best compromise between the performance and robustness, and is mostly affected by the system downtime. Under this aspect, the condition-based maintenance remains more profitable than the time-based maintenance. Still, maintenance managers could implement condition-based maintenance policies that efficiently control the downtime to maximise the maintenance effectiveness of production systems from both performance and robustness viewpoints.

Game-Theoretic Trajectory-Negotiation Mechanism for Merging Air Traffic Management

A novel trajectory-negotiation mechanism for fairly distributing the benefits of trajectory-based operations among all the stakeholders based on bargaining theory is advanced. The trajectory-negotiation mechanism is formulated as an -player finite strategy game. The objective of each aircraft in the game is to minimize its cost of deviating from its desired trajectory, whereas the objective of the air traffic controller is to provide clearances that ensure fairness while preventing conflicts. To avoid the need to share competition-sensitive business logic employed by individual airlines, the utility function is formulated in terms of the percentage cost deviation reported by each aircraft. Penalty costs are defined based on the rules of the bargaining game, which are determined by the air traffic controllers based on the traffic situation. The final solution is chosen from the Nash equilibriums of the game, representing the best possible outcome for all the players in the game. The Nash equilibrium of the game is found using a binary mixed-integer linear programming algorithm. The feasibility and the performance of the proposed game-theoretic trajectory-negotiation mechanism are demonstrated in a merging arrival traffic situation. Numerical studies show that the proposed mechanism can reduce the total cost by 55.62% and improve fairness by 50.3% when compared with the current first-come/first-served approach in the selected traffic scenarios in the paper.

Predicting Cost Escalation Pathways and Deviation Severities of Infrastructure Projects Using Risk‐Based Econometric Models and Monte Carlo Simulation

AbstractIn the past decade, infrastructure‐related legislation in the United States has consistently emphasized the need to measure the variation associated with infrastructure project cost estimates. Such cost variability is best viewed from the perspective of the project development phases and how the project cost estimate changes as it evolves across these phases. The article first identifies a few gaps in the cost overrun literature. Then it introduces a methodology that uses risk‐based multinomial models and Monte Carlo simulation involving random draws to predict the probability that a project will follow a particular cost escalation pathway across its development phases and that it will incur a given level of cost deviation severity. The article then uses historical data to demonstrate how infrastructure agencies could apply the proposed methodology. Statistical models are developed to estimate the probability that a highway project will follow any specific cost escalation pathway and ultimately, a given direction and severity of cost deviation. The case study results provided some interesting insights. For a given highway functional class, larger project sizes are associated with lower probability of underestimating the final cost; however, such a trend is not exhibited by very large projects (total cost exceeding $30M). For a given project size, higher class roads were generally observed to have a lower probability of underestimating the final cost, compared to lower class roads and this gap in probability narrows as the project size increases. It was determined that a project's most likely pathway of cost escalation is not a guarantee that it will yield any particular direction of cost deviation. The case study results also confirmed the findings of a few past studies that the probabilities of cost escalation pathways and the cost overruns differ significantly across highway districts, and attributed this to differences in administrative culture and work practices across the districts. Infrastructure managers can use the developed methodology to identify which projects are likely to experience a particular pathway of cost escalation, the direction and severity of cost deviation, and to develop more realistic project contingency estimates.

Physical Strain: A New Perspective on Walking in Cerebral Palsy

ObjectivesTo describe (1) physical strain of walking, (2) the proportion of participants walking above the anaerobic threshold, and (3) 4 phenotypes of physical strain of walking on the basis of deviations in aerobic capacity and walking energy cost (EC) in children and adolescents with cerebral palsy (CP). DesignCohort study. SettingAcademic medical center. ParticipantsA sample (N=57) of participants (n=37; mean age, 13.5±4.0y) with CP (Gross Motor Function Classification System [GMFCS] levels I [n=13], II [n=17], and III [n=7]) and typically developing (TD) participants (n=20; mean age, 11.8±3.5y). InterventionsNot applicable. Main Outcome MeasuresOxygen consumption (Vo2walk), speed, and EC were determined during walking at a comfortable speed. Peak oxygen consumption (Vo2peak) and anaerobic threshold were measured during a maximal cycling exercise test. Aerobic capacity was reduced if lower than the 10th percentile, and EC was increased if higher than 3SD. Physical strain was defined as follows: (Vo2walk/Vo2peak)×100. ResultsParticipants with CP had a higher physical strain (GMFCS level I, 55%±12% GMFCS level II, 62%±17%; GMFCS level III, 78%±14%) than did TD participants (40%±11%) (P<.001). Forty-three percent of participants with CP showed a Vo2walk at or above their anaerobic threshold as compared with 10% of TD participants (P=.007). Phenotypes showed that a reduced Vo2peak (n=9) or an increased EC (n=9) lead to an 18% to 20% higher physical strain, whereas a combination (n=12) leads to a 40% increase. ConclusionsChildren and adolescents with CP walk at a high physical strain, approximating intense exercise and a considerable proportion walks close to or above their anaerobic threshold, probably explaining fatigue and reduced walking distance. Both an increased EC and a reduced Vo2peak contribute to high physical strain in children or adolescents with CP. The different causes of high physical strain in individuals with CP require different intervention strategies.

Solving multi-region multi-facility inventory allocation and transportation problem: A case of Indian public distribution system

In this paper, we study an inventory allocation and transportation problem in a supply chain consisting of multiple storage facilities (warehouses) located in different regions of a large geographic area, which is motivated by the case of the Indian public distribution system. The procurement in each region is known and the item procured within a region needs to be allocated for storage in the warehouses of the same region. The demand of each region is satisfied by the warehouses located in the respective regions. Consideration of region-wise aggregated demand/procurement over multiple facilities located in each region makes the proposed study different from the existing literature. There is a mismatch in procurement, demand, and available storage capacity of warehouses across all the regions. Therefore, the problem is to determine an optimal plan for holding inventory at different storage facilities and to satisfy the demand of all regions without shortages by transporting items between different storage facilities. A mixed integer linear programming model is formulated to minimize the total relevant costs over a finite planning horizon. A heuristic devising activity based decision rules is proposed to solve the problem by decomposing the problem into sub-problems. The performance of the proposed approach is compared with the exact solutions obtained using Cplex for several problem instances. The results of the computational analysis reveal that the proposed solution approach is computationally efficient and gives good quality solutions with an average cost deviation from the optimal solution of less than 6%.

Traditional growing rod versus magnetically controlled growing rod for treatment of early onset scoliosis: Cost analysis from implantation till skeletal maturity.

To compare the yearly cost involved per patient in the use of magnetically controlled growing rod (MCGR) and traditional growing rods (TGRs) in the treatment of early onset scoliosis (EOS) and to assess the overall cost burden of MCGR with reference to patient and health-care infrastructure. For a hypothetical case of a 5-year-old girl with a diagnosis of EOS, a decision-tree model using TreeAge Software was developed to simulate annual health state transitions and compare the 8-year accumulative direct, indirect, and total cost among the four groups: (1) dual MCGRs with exchange every 2 years, (2) dual MCGRs with exchange every 3 years, (3) TGR with surgical distraction every year, and (4) TGR with surgical distraction every 6 months. Base-case values and ranges of clinical parameters reflecting complication rate after each type of surgical distraction were determined from a review of literature and expert opinion. Government gazette and expert opinion provided cost estimation of growing rods, surgeries, surgical complications, and routine follow-up. Microsimulation of 1000 individuals was conducted to test the variation in total direct costs (in 2016 Hong Kong dollars (HKD)) between individuals, and estimated the standard deviations of total direct costs for each group. Over the projected treatment period, indirect costs incurred by patients and family were higher for the MCGR as compared to the TGR. However, the total costs incurred by MCGR groups (group 1: HKD164k; group 2: HKD138k) were lower than those incurred by TGR groups (group 3: HKD191k; group 4: HKD290k). Although the accumulative costs of three groups (TGR with distraction every year and MCGR replacing every 2 and 3 years) were approaching each other in the first 2 years after initial implantation, at year 3 the accumulative cost of MCGR exchange every 2 years was HKD36k more than the yearly TGR surgery due to the cost of implant exchange. The cost incurred by both the MCGR groups was less than that incurred by the TGR groups from year 4 to skeletal maturity. The use of dual MCGRs, regardless of its 2- or 3-year exchange, was only cost saving and less expensive than the dual TGRs for EOS treatment from the fourth year of continuous treatment. Despite higher patient-related costs during MCGR treatment, it is important to consider the reduced risks and mental burden suffered by these children during repeat surgeries. With improved knowledge of the costs associated with long-term MCGR use, better constructed cost-effectiveness studies can be performed in the future.

Probabilistic life-cycle cost-benefit analysis of portfolios of buildings under flood hazard

Nowadays, the number of residential buildings in flood prone zones is increasing significantly. Therefore, for these buildings, it is of vital importance to apply hazard risk mitigation strategies. In this paper, probabilistic cost-benefit analysis of flood risk mitigation strategies for portfolios of residential buildings is performed in a life-cycle context. Additionally, an efficient methodology is proposed to aid decision-makers on whether or not to retrofit portfolios of structures considering both expected and standard deviation of life-cycle cost. The vulnerability model of buildings under flood hazard is introduced considering serviceability and ultimate limit states. Probabilistic cost-benefit analysis is performed by comparing the effectiveness of different retrofit actions. Additionally, uncertainty and correlation effects are considered in the probabilistic loss and cost-benefit analysis procedures. The proposed approach is applied to a portfolio of residential buildings located in Florida to illustrate its capability and application. However, the proposed approach is general and can be applied to buildings located in other regions.

Selecting a Multicriteria Inventory Classification Model to Improve Customer Order Fill Rate

Multicriteria models have been proposed for inventory classification in previous studies. However, it is important to make a decision when a particular multicriteria inventory classification model should be preferred over other models and also if the highest performing model remains the highest performing at all times. Companies always look for ways to improve customer order fulfillment process. This paper shows how better inventory classification can improve customer order fill rate in variable settings. The method to compare the inventory classification models with regard to improving customer order fill rate is proposed. The cut-off point is calculated which indicates when a model currently in use should be dropped in favor of another model to increase revenue by filling more orders. Sensitivity analysis is also performed to determine how holding cost and demand uncertainty affect the performance metric. Finally, regression analysis and hypothesis testing inform the decision-maker of how a model’s performance differs from other models at various values of holding cost and standard deviation of demand.

What are the health care costs for chronic lymphocytic leukemia?

15 Background: New drugs for chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) have recently been approved, including oral therapies. We examined total health care costs, including drug and patient out-of-pocket (OOP) costs, in patients (pts) initiating CLL treatment. Methods: This retrospective studyused a U.S. health insurance claims database. Adult commercially insured and Medicare Advantage pts from 5/2013 - 6/2015, with ≥2 medical claims for CLL were included. Pts required ≥1 claim for NCCN-recommended systemic cancer therapy. Pts were categorized based on first-line of therapy. Aggregate costs during a fixed 9-month follow-up period (treatment switch or discontinuation were possible) were investigated. Mean and standard deviation (SD) of total healthcare costs, regimen costs, and pt OOP regimen costs are presented. Results: A total of 707 CLL pts met all study criteria during the study period; 40% were commercially insured and 60% had Medicare Advantage. Mean age was 70 years (SD 11). Some of the most common regimens received included Bendamustine+Rituximab (BR) (N=186), Ibrutinib (Ibr) (N=101), Fludarabine, Cyclophosphamide, and Rituximab (FCR) (N=62), and Obinutuzumab +/- Chlorambucil (Ob+/-Chl) (N=51). Mean length of therapy varied by regimen; BR 4.2 months (m) (SD 2.7), Ibr 6.7m (SD 4.8), FCR 4.7m (SD 2.1), and Ob±Chl 4.0m (SD 2.1). The table shows aggregate costs among pts with ≥ 9 months follow-up. Ob±Chl had lower costs compared to other cohorts. Ibr had the highest drug costs. Conclusions: While the study has limited follow-up, Ob+/-Cl had the lowest drug and total costs. Oral therapy with Ibr had the highest drug and OOP costs compared to those associated with a prescribed fixed number of cycles. The magnitude of the difference between orals and infusions is expected to be greater with a longer follow-up and is a consideration in patient treatment decision-making in CLL.[Table: see text]

Analisis Monitoring Pelaksanaan Pekerjaan Proyek Pasar Rakyat Bareng Kota Malang

Curve-S, Earned Value, and Tracking. The results of the analysis using the curve method S, week 1 to 6 project acceleration took place, while at week 17, 18, and 19 projects too late. At week 20 the work is accelerated until the last week of the 22nd week, and the duration of the last project is 22 weeks. The result of analysis using Earned Value method, week 17,18,19 late, and other week happened acceleration. Cost deviations occur in weeks 1-4,6,7,15,16,17, and 18. To estimate the final cost of the total final cost, and the prediction for the total project completion time is 22 weeks. The analysis result using tracking shows that the actual duration is 158 days, and the estimated duration is 2 calendar days. The project prediction is completed on January 28, 2017. The total cost incurred is less than the final project cost plan. So the recommendation of the appropriate monitoring method for the People's Market is Tracking.

Do Longer Projects Have Larger Cost Deviation Than Shorter Construction Projects?

Construction cost and delivery time have been used as mutually inclusive measurement for project success in construction industry. In relation to this, several researchers showed a correlation between cost deviation and deviation on delivery time. However, very limited research discussed about the relationship between total construction time and cost deviation. The purpose of this paper is to analyze two specific types of construction projects (roads and buildings) and test if there is a correlation between cost performance and the length of construction time. In other words, respond to the proposition that longer projects have large cost deviation. Further, the research discusses managerial implications by referring what it really matters in cost performance in either of longer or shorter projects. To do this, the research considers various size public road construction projects and building constructions with different project completion time. It uses quantitative research method. The result showed that longer project do not necessarily have higher cost deviation. Unlike the building construction, road construction showed negative correlation between cost and construction time. However, few longer projects showed relatively large cost deviation as compared to smaller projects. This paper also wants to do practical discussions by comparing the attributes of shorter versus the longer projects.

Economic burden made celiac disease an expensive and challenging condition for Iranian patients.

The aim of this study was to estimate the economic burden of celiac disease (CD) in Iran. The assessment of burden of CD has become an important primary or secondary outcome measure in clinical and epidemiologic studies. Information regarding medical costs and gluten free diet (GFD) costs were gathered using questionnaire and checklists offered to the selected patients with CD. The data included the direct medical cost (including Doctor Visit, hospitalization, clinical test examinations, endoscopies, etc.), GFD cost and loss productivity cost (as the indirect cost) for CD patient were estimated. The factors used for cost estimation included frequency of health resource utilization and gluten free diet basket. Purchasing Power Parity Dollar (PPP$) was used in order to make inter-country comparisons. Total of 213 celiac patients entered to this study. The mean (standard deviation) of total cost per patient per year was 3377 (1853) PPP$. This total cost including direct medical cost, GFD costs and loss productivity cost per patients per year. Also the mean and standard deviation of medical cost and GFD cost were 195 (128) PPP$ and 932 (734) PPP$ respectively. The total costs of CD were significantly higher for male. Also GFD cost and total cost were higher for unmarried patients. In conclusion, our estimation of CD economic burden is indicating that CD patients face substantial expense that might not be affordable for a good number of these patients. The estimated economic burden may put these patients at high risk for dietary neglect resulting in increasing the risk of long term complications.

Cost monitoring and optimisation system for large complex project

Characteristics of large complex projects include great investment, big construction difficulty, long construction period, probably risk factors and the like. Although the previous researchers introduced the life cycle management to control investment, the move fails to achieve satisfactory results. The lack of systemic consideration can explain this. Therefore, the three-dimensional lifecycle investment management system is constructed to control investment in this paper. The dimension of subcontract hierarchy refers to the levels of the contractor. The dimension of cost milestone points means the cost supervision node. The dimension of program support review optimising is used to analyse systematically and fix the cost deviation. Then, the index system of cost monitoring milestone point is built. Finally, the operation mechanism of the management system is illustrated on the basis of mapping model between the contract and project work breakdown structure. A case study proves that the cost management system is effective.

TINJAUAN PENYUSUNAN BIAYA OPERASIONAL ATAS AKTIVITAS EKSPOR KARET PADA PT. PANCA SAMUDERA SIMPATI

Budget analysis of operational costs is the one method for company to do some effective cost control on its operation, especially in companies that do export ectivity. PT. Pancasamudera Simpati is one of the most Crumb Rubber Company in Palembang City and they do export the rubber to abroad, such us : U.S.A, China, Jepan, etc. Export activity for breakbulk shipment that carried on PT. Newship Nusabersama as shipping company also need to monior and it is important to analysis of the operational budget on activities that have been performed. Thus company know the actual costs of the budget and do the planning for the next operation so that coporate objectives can be achived. In its export activity, wrongly loading the cargo onto the barges, extra cost of barges rental and huge overtime cost its a few problem that can increase of the budget. This research method used is descriptive qualitative and quantitative methods. The result of analysis of the budget for operational costs PT. Pancasamudera Simpati, can be concluded that the cost deviation is not profitable deviation of deviation favorable. Then, the preparation of the budget is good planning as per cost standar from last operation and improvement efforts on activities implemented.Keyword : Budget, Operational Cost, Export, Variance