Coronavirus Disease 2019 In Africa Research Articles

Disability inclusion in African health systems' responses during COVID-19: A scoping review.

People with disabilities often experience poorer access to healthcare because of multiple barriers even in non-crisis times, especially more so in low- and middle-income countries. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic significantly constrained health systems, thus exacerbating access barriers. African health system responses to, and considerations made for people with disabilities during the pandemic have not been adequately examined to inform future inclusive practices during emergent and non-emergent periods. This review aimed to explore disability considerations and accommodations included by African governments in their health systems' responses during the COVID-19 pandemic. A scoping review was carried out of peer-reviewed published articles on the Web of Science, Academic Search Premier, MEDLINE, Africa-Wide Info, and CINAHL databases. A desktop search of African government websites for COVID-19 country plans and reports was also conducted. Deductive thematic analysis of included texts was performed to identify disability inclusiveness in the health responses. Ten peer-reviewed articles and three COVID-19 country plans or reports were included in the review. Data reflected a general finding that included countries that failed to effectively consider and include the healthcare needs of persons with disabilities during the pandemic. Poor inclusion of persons with disabilities was effected in healthcare systems' responses during COVID-19 in Africa. This article contributed insights about gaps in healthcare systems' responses and highlighted development foci that could improve systems towards greater inclusivity of persons with disabilities' health needs in low- and middle-income countries.

Knowledge and practice of personal protective measures against COVID-19 in Africa: a systematic review.

The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic being a newly evolving disease, its response measures largely depend on the practice of and compliance with personal protective measures (PPMs). This systematic review aimed to examine the knowledge and practice of COVID-19 PPMs in African countries, as documented in the published literature. A systematic search was conducted on Scopus, PubMed, and Web of Science databases using appropriate keywords and predefined eligibility criteria for the selection of relevant studies. Only population-based original research studies (including qualitative, quantitative, and mixed-method studies) done in Africa, and published in the English language were included. The screening process and data extraction were performed according to a pre-registered protocol in PROSPERO (CRD42022355101) and followed the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) guidelines. The quality of included studies was assessed using the Mixed-Method Appraisal Tool. Thematic analysis was used to systematically summarise the studies into four predefined domains: i) knowledge and perception about PPMs, ii) mask use, iii) social/physical distancing, and iv) hand washing/hygiene, including their respective levels and associated factors. A total of 58 studies across 12 African countries were included, and these were published between 2019 and 2022. African communities, including various population groups, had varying levels of knowledge and practice of COVID-19 PPMs, with lack of personal protective equipment (PPE) (mainly face masks), and side effects (among health care workers) being the major reasons for poor compliance. Lower rates of handwashing/ hygiene were particularly noted in several African countries, especially among the urban poor and slum-dwellers, with the main barrier being the lack of safe and clean water. Various cognitive (knowledge and perception), socio-demographic and economic factors were associated with the practice of COVID-19 PPMs. Moreover, there were evident research inequalities on the regional level, where East Africa contributed 36.2%, West Africa 20.7%, North Africa 17.2%, Southern Africa 6.9%, and no single-country study from Central Africa. Nonetheless, the overall quality of the included studies was generally good, as they satisfied most of the quality assessment criteria. There is a need to enhance local capacity to produce and supply PPE. Consideration of various cognitive, demographic and socioeconomic differences, with extra focus on the most vulnerable, is crucial for inclusive and more effective strategies against the pandemic. Moreover, more focus and involvement in community behavioral research are needed to fully understand and address the dynamics of the current pandemic in Africa. The study protocol was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42022355101).

Inference from Open-Source Sequence Data on the Genetic Epidemiology of COVID-19 Infection in Africa

Between late December 2019 when it was first reported, to early September 2020, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARSCoV- 2), the causative agent of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19), reportedly infected over 10 million people globally. In Africa, more than 300,000 infections occurred within the period, from which several genetic sequences of the virus were generated. During disease outbreak, phylogenetic reconstruction of genomic data can assist in making epidemiological inferences about time of pathogen introduction, epidemic growth rate and temporal-spatial spread of the infection. In this work, we studied the genetic epidemiology of COVID-19 in Africa. Genetic sequence data of SARS-CoV-2 and metadata from African countries were obtained from publicly accessible sequence database hosted by the GISAID initiative. Whole genome sequences were subjected to multiple sequence alignment and the aligned sequences used to construct a Maximum Likelihood phylogenetic tree based on the general time reversible model. Of the 227 genetic sequences obtained for 9 African countries (DRC=133, Senegal=23, South Africa=20, Ghana=15, Tunisia=6, Algeria=3, Gambia=3, Egypt=2 and Nigeria=2), 220 were whole genome sequences while 7 were partial genome sequences of the surface glycoprotein S. Majority of the viruses (58.1%) belonged to the G clade of GISAID classification. Phylogenetic analysis confirmed multiple introductions of the virus to the continent from multiple external sources prior to local adaptation and spread. The very close alignment of three viruses - Ghana/1659_S14/2020|EPI_ISL_422405, DRC/KN0054/2020|EPI_ ISL_417437, and South_Africa/R05475/2020|EPI_ISL_435059 – to the reference Wuhan strain on the time tree, suggests possible introduction and circulation of the virus into the continent much earlier than when the first case in the continent was announced in February 15 2020. In conclusion, this study provided evidence to support multiple introductions of SARSCoV- 2 into Africa, and further suggests that the virus may have already been circulating in the continent prior to official reporting of the first case. Also, there is strong impression to infer likely genetic adaptation of the virus in the continent that may account for the close clustering of isolates from different countries of the continent.

Coordination and Management of COVID-19 in Africa through Health Operations and Technical Expertise Pillar: A Case Study from WHO AFRO One Year into Response.

Background: following the importation of the first Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case into Africa on 14 February 2020 in Egypt, the World Health Organisation (WHO) regional office for Africa (AFRO) activated a three-level incident management support team (IMST), with technical pillars, to coordinate planning, implementing, supervision, and monitoring of the situation and progress of implementation as well as response to the pandemic in the region. At WHO AFRO, one of the pillars was the health operations and technical expertise (HOTE) pillar with five sub-pillars: case management, infection prevention and control, risk communication and community engagement, laboratory, and emergency medical team (EMT). This paper documents the learnings (both positive and negative for consideration of change) from the activities of the HOTE pillar and recommends future actions for improving its coordination for future emergencies, especially for multi-country outbreaks or pandemic emergency responses. Method: we conducted a document review of the HOTE pillar coordination meetings’ minutes, reports, policy and strategy documents of the activities, and outcomes and feedback on updates on the HOTE pillar given at regular intervals to the Regional IMST. In addition, key informant interviews were conducted with 14 members of the HOTE sub pillar. Key Learnings: the pandemic response revealed that shared decision making, collaborative coordination, and planning have been significant in the COVID-19 response in Africa. The HOTE pillar’s response structure contributed to attaining the IMST objectives in the African region and translated to timely support for the WHO AFRO and the member states. However, while the coordination mechanism appeared robust, some challenges included duplication of coordination efforts, communication, documentation, and information management. Recommendations: we recommend streamlining the flow of information to better understand the challenges that countries face. There is a need to define the role and responsibilities of sub-pillar team members and provide new team members with information briefs to guide them on where and how to access internal information and work under the pillar. A unified documentation system is important and could help to strengthen intra-pillar collaboration and communication. Various indicators should be developed to constantly monitor the HOTE team’s deliverables, performance and its members.

Multi-region machine learning-based novel ensemble approaches for predicting COVID-19 pandemic in Africa.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has produced a global pandemic, which has devastating effects on health, economy and social interactions. Despite the less contraction and spread of COVID-19 in Africa compared to some other continents in the world, Africa remains amongst the most vulnerable regions due to less technology and unequipped or poor health system. Recent happenings showed that COVID-19 may stay for years owing to the discoveries of new variants (such as Omicron) and new wave of infections in several countries. Therefore, accurate prediction of new cases is vital to make informed decisions and in evaluating the measures that should be implemented. Studies on COVID-19 prediction are limited in Africa despite the risks and dangers that the virus possessed. Hence, this study was performed to predict daily COVID-19 cases in 10 African countries spread across the north, south, east, west and central Africa considering countries with few and large number of daily COVID-19 cases. Machine learning (ML) models due to their nonlinearity and accurate prediction capabilities were employed for this purpose, including artificial neural network (ANN), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), support vector machine (SVM) and conventional multiple linear regression (MLR) models. As any other natural process, the COVID-19 pandemic may contain both linear and nonlinear aspects. In such circumstances, neither nonlinear (ML) nor linear (MLR) models could be sufficient; hence, combining both ML and MLR models may produce better accuracy. Consequently, to improve the prediction efficiency of the ML models, novel ensemble approaches including ANN-E and SVM-E were employed. The advantage of using ensemble approaches is that they provide collective benefits of all the standalone models, thereby reducing their weaknesses and enhancing their prediction capabilities. The obtained results showed that ANFIS led to better prediction performance with MAD = 0.0106, MSE = 0.0003, RMSE = 0.0185 and R2 = 0.9059 in the validation step. The results of the proposed ensemble approaches demonstrated very high improvements in predicting the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa with MAD = 0.0073, MSE = 0.0002, RMSE = 0.0155 and R2 = 0.9616. The ANN-E improved the standalone models performance in the validation step up to 10%, 14%, 42%, 6%, 83%, 11%, 7%, 5%, 7% and 31% for Morocco, Sudan, Namibia, South Africa, Uganda, Rwanda, Nigeria, Senegal, Gabon and Cameroon, respectively. This study results offer a solid foundation in the application of ensemble approaches for predicting COVID-19 pandemic across all regions and countries in the world.

Commercial Banks Responses toward Small and Medium Enterprises Survival in the Context of the COVID-19 in Africa

The African government has implemented measures to sustain an investable economic downturn as it navigates the fiscal effect of the viral spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Consequently, commercial banks in Africa have come hand in hand toward support of SMEs activities by increasing their borrowing power and reducing interest rates. Despite all these measures the general performance of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) across Africa as pertains to revenues and profits has gone down. This paper provides a theoretical analysis of the measures undertaken by commercial banks to ensure proper running and continuity of activities in the SMEs sector in Africa. The research is founded on the theories of innovation diffusion and resource-based theory. This study will use a mixed research design, which will include descriptive and explanatory research. The proposed target population will be Africa’s thriving commercial banks. The primary and secondary data will be used from commercial bank reports and the central bureau of statistics reports across Africa. The data will be analyzed using a multiple linear regression model. The finding indicated that commercial banks in Africa have brought in solutions and measures to adapt to the crisis being implicated on the SMEs by the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on the findings of the desktop reviews, the study concludes that commercial banks have a significant influence on SMEs during this period of COVID-19, and with the assistance of the government, they have implemented more policies to support the activities of SMEs.

Helminth antigens differentially modulate the activation of CD4+ and CD8+ T lymphocytes of convalescent COVID-19 patients in vitro

BackgroundThe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a respiratory disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, a recently discovered strain of coronavirus. The virus has spread rapidly, causing millions of death worldwide. Contrary to the predictions, prevalence and mortality due to COVID-19 have remained moderate on the African continent. Several factors, including age, genetics, vaccines, and co-infections, might impact the course of the pandemic in Africa. Helminths are highly endemic in Sub-Saharan Africa and are renowned for their ability to evade, skew, and suppress human immune responses through various immune-modulatory mechanisms. Such effects will likely impact SARS-CoV-2 transmission and disease progression.MethodsHere, we analyzed in vitro the impact of antigen extracts from three major helminth parasites, including Onchocerca volvulus, Brugia malayi, and Ascaris lumbricoides, on the immune reactivity to SARS-CoV-2 peptides in COVID-19 patients. Activation of CD4+ and CD8+ T cells was investigated using flow cytometry to monitor the expression of CD137 (4-1BB) and CD69. Cytokine expression, including IL-6, IL-10, IFN-γ, and TNFα, was measured by Luminex in cell culture supernatants.ResultsWe observed that helminth antigens significantly reduced the frequency of SARS-CoV-2-reactive CD4+ T helper cells. In contrast, the expression of SARS-CoV-2-reactive CD8+ T cells was not affected and even significantly increased when PBMCs from COVID-19 patients living in Benin, an endemic helminth country, were used. In addition, stimulation with helminth antigens was associated with increased IL-10 and a reduction of IFNγ and TNFα.ConclusionsOur data offer a plausible explanation for the moderate incidence of COVID-19 in Africa and support the hypothesis that helper T cell-mediated immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 are mitigated in the presence of helminth antigens, while virus-specific cytotoxic T cell responses are maintained.

COVID-19 in Africa: An Explorative Cross-Sectional Analysis of Twenty-One African Countries From January to June 2020.

Introduction: Africa has surprisingly recorded better gains in containing the coronavirus spread than countries with the better health indices, such as the USA and UK. The low rate of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases and death in Africa represents a puzzle with different biological and social theories such as low COVID-19 testing capacity, substantial young population, few old people, favourable climate, genetic admixture, infectious disease antibodies, and sound community health care systems proposed. We aimed to understand the COVID-19 preventive measures in a group of twenty-one systematically selected African countries that may explain the low burden of COVID-19 in Africa.Methods: Data (COVID-19, health, socioeconomic, and demographics indices) of twenty-one systemically selected African countries were retrieved from the various official country and multilateral organization sources such as Worldbank, and the United nations development Programme (UNDP). The extracted data were analyzed in three large groups: international travel restrictions, physical and social distancing, and movement restrictions (lockdown measures; curfews, partial or/and national lockdowns). Data cleaning, analysis (including Pearson correlation), and visualization were done with Microsoft Excel and Graph Pad Prism version 9 (https://www.graphpad.com/).Result: Southern Africa had the greatest number of cases and deaths within the period studied compared to East Africa, which was the least COVID-19 affected sub-region (in terms of COVID-19 cases and deaths). We observed that coronary artery disease death rate was highly correlated with COVID-19 death density (number of COVID-19 deaths/total population) and similarly observed a correlation between the number of cases and deaths and number of in-country arrivals, pandemic preparedness (health security index), COVID-19 containment, and health index (not correlated with deaths). Finally, we noted that the most effective preventive strategy was the 'use of a face mask'.Conclusion: Africa had fewer COVID-19 cases and COVID-19 related deaths. Our data shows that the rapidity and stringency of COVID-19 preventive measures and government policies, and the low level of tourism in Africa compared to other countries (i.e., low COVID-19 seeding rate) may have been contributory to these favorable statistics. We hope these findings impact how the preparedness for pandemics can be enhanced to decrease the burden of preventable deaths and morbidity.

The COVID-19 pandemic in the African continent

In December 2019, a new coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) and associated disease, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), was identified in China. This virus spread quickly and in March, 2020, it was declared a pandemic. Scientists predicted the worst scenario to occur in Africa since it was the least developed of the continents in terms of human development index, lagged behind others in achievement of the United Nations sustainable development goals (SDGs), has inadequate resources for provision of social services, and has many fragile states. In addition, there were relatively few research reporting findings on COVID-19 in Africa. On the contrary, the more developed countries reported higher disease incidences and mortality rates. However, for Africa, the earlier predictions and modelling into COVID-19 incidence and mortality did not fit into the reality. Therefore, the main objective of this forum is to bring together infectious diseases and public health experts to give an overview of COVID-19 in Africa and share their thoughts and opinions on why Africa behaved the way it did. Furthermore, the experts highlight what needs to be done to support Africa to consolidate the status quo and overcome the negative effects of COVID-19 so as to accelerate attainment of the SDGs.

Factors Associated With Mortality Among the COVID-19 Patients Treated at Gulu Regional Referral Hospital: A Retrospective Study.

BackgroundThe advent of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused millions of deaths worldwide. As of December 2021, there is inadequate data on the outcome of hospitalized patients suffering from COVID-19 in Africa. This study aimed at identifying factors associated with hospital mortality in patients who suffered from COVID-19 at Gulu Regional Referral Hospital in Northern Uganda from March 2020 to October 2021.MethodsThis was a single-center, retrospective cohort study in patients hospitalized with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 at Gulu Regional Referral Hospital in Northern Uganda. Socio-demographic characteristics, clinical presentations, co-morbidities, duration of hospital stay, and treatments were analyzed, and factors associated with the odds of mortality were determined.ResultsOf the 664 patients treated, 661 (99.5%) were unvaccinated, 632 (95.2%) recovered and 32 (4.8%) died. Mortality was highest in diabetics 11 (34.4%), cardiovascular diseases 12 (37.5%), hypertensives 10 (31.3%), females 18 (56.3%), ≥50-year-olds 19 (59.4%), no formal education 14 (43.8%), peasant farmers 12 (37.5%) and those who presented with difficulty in breathing/shortness of breath and chest pain 32 (100.0%), oxygen saturation (SpO2) at admission <80 4 (12.5%), general body aches and pains 31 (96.9%), tiredness 30 (93.8%) and loss of speech and movements 11 (34.4%). The independent factors associated with mortality among the COVID-19 patients were females AOR = 0.220, 95%CI: 0.059–0.827; p = 0.030; Diabetes mellitus AOR = 9.014, 95%CI: 1.726–47.067; p = 0.010; Ages of 50 years and above AOR = 2.725, 95%CI: 1.187–6.258; p = 0.018; tiredness AOR = 0.059, 95%CI: 0.009–0.371; p < 0.001; general body aches and pains AOR = 0.066, 95%CI: 0.007–0.605; p = 0.020; loss of speech and movement AOR = 0.134, 95%CI: 0.270–0.660; p = 0.010 and other co-morbidities AOR = 6.860, 95%CI: 1.309–35.957; p = 0.020.ConclusionThe overall Gulu Regional Hospital mortality was 32/664 (4.8%). Older age, people with diabetics, females, other comorbidities, severe forms of the disease, and those admitted to HDU were significant risk factors associated with hospital mortality. More efforts should be made to provide “additional social protection” to the most vulnerable population to avoid preventable morbidity and mortality of COVID-19 in Northern Uganda.

The impact of COVID-19 on communicable and non-communicable diseases in Africa: a narrative review.

The global pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has disproportionately impacted global human health, economy, and security. Because of weaker health-care systems, existing comorbidities burden (HIV, malaria, tuberculosis, and non-communicable conditions), and poor socioeconomic determinants, initial predictive models had forecast a disastrous impact of COVID-19 in Africa in terms of transmission, severity, and deaths. Nonetheless, current epidemiological data seem not to have matched expectations, showing lower SARS-CoV-2 infection and fatality rates compared to Europe, the Americas and Asia. However, only few studies were conducted in low- and middle-income African settings where high poverty and limited access to health services worsen underlying health conditions, including endemic chronic infectious diseases such as HIV and tuberculosis. Furthermore, limited, and heterogeneous research was conducted to evaluate the indirect impact of the pandemic on general health services and on major diseases across African countries. International mitigation measures, such as resource reallocation, lockdowns, social restrictions, and fear from the population have had multi-sectoral impacts on various aspects of everyday life, that shaped the general health response. Despite the vast heterogeneity of data across African countries, available evidence suggests that the COVID-19 pandemic has severely impacted the control and prevention programs, the diagnosis capacity and the adherence to treatment of major infectious diseases (HIV, TB, and Malaria) - including neglected diseases - and non-communicable diseases. Future research and efforts are essential to deeply assess the medium- and long-term impact of the pandemic, and to implement tailored interventions to mitigate the standstill on decades of improvement on public health programs.

The status of neglected tropical diseases amidst COVID-19 in Africa: Current evidence and recommendations.

Health care services and programs directed towards combating the neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) have been disrupted because of the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The African continent because of its staggering health care system and poor economy disproportionately bears the burden of these diseases. While successes have been recorded in controlling and eliminating the NTDs, policymakers in Africa should consider the potential of the COVID-19 to dwindle these successes an issue of high priority. This commentary seeks to discuss the current status of NTDs in Africa and proffer recommendations to help combat these diseases at this period. It is worthy to say that similar dedication directed towards fighting the COVID-19 should also be deployed into eliminating other diseases like the NTDs which often, are neglected.

COVID-19 in Africa: rethinking the tools to manage future pandemics.

Corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) remains an incurable, progressive pneumonia-like illness characterized by fever, dry cough, fatigue, and headache during its early stages. COVID-19 has ultimately resulted in mortality in at least 2 million people worldwide. Millions of people globally have already been affected by this disease, and the numbers are expected to increase, perhaps until an effective cure or vaccine is identified. Although Africa was initially purported by the World Health Organization (WHO) to be severely hit by the pandemic, Africa recorded the least number of cases during the first wave, with lowest rates of infections, compared to Asia, Europe, and the Americas. This statistic might be attributed to the low testing capacity, existing public health awareness and lessons learnt during Ebola epidemic. Nonetheless, the relatively low rate of infection should be an opportunity for Africa to be better prepared to overcome this and future epidemics. In this paper, the authors provide insights into the dynamics and transmission of the severe acute respiratory syndrome corona virus (SARS-CoV-2) during the first wave of the pandemic; possible explanations into the relatively low rates of infection recorded in Africa; with recommendations for Africa to continue to fight Covid-19; and position itself to effectively manage future pandemics.

COVID-19 Vaccine Acceptability and Hesitancy in Africa: Implications for Addressing Vaccine Hesitancy

Background: Increased acceptance and uptake of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines is very essential in containing the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Vaccine hesitancy is a threat to public health containment of infectious diseases. Aim: The main aim of this study was to review published articles regarding COVID-19 vaccine acceptability and hesitancy across all populations in Africa. Materials and methods: This was a narrative review. A comprehensive literature search was done using PubMed, Google Scholar, Scopus, and EMBASE using the keywords vaccine acceptability, vaccine hesitancy, COVID-19 vaccine, COVID-19 pandemic, H1N1 vaccine, swine flu, swine flu vaccine, Africa, and the Boolean word AND. The cited literature was published between March 2001 and June 2021. Results: The few studies were done in Africa so far are among healthcare workers and medical students. Acceptance of vaccination against COVID-19 in Africa ranged from 15.4% to 55.9%. This shows increased hesitancy to receive the COVID-19 vaccines in African countries. Many people were concerned about the potential adverse effects and ineffectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines. Misinformation about the COVID-19 vaccines has contributed to the hesitancy reported from different studies. Moreover, sociodemographic characteristics were also predictors of the acceptability of COVID-19 vaccines. Conclusion: Low acceptability rates reported in Africa indicates increased hesitancy to vaccination against COVID-19. The low acceptance of vaccines in Africa can hinder the required 60-70% vaccinations to achieve herd immunity. Therefore, there is a need to develop strategies that will address hesitancy against the COVID-19 vaccines across countries and populations in Africa and the entire globe.

Lassa fever amidst the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa: A rising concern, efforts, challenges, and future recommendations.

Lassa fever, caused by the Lassa virus of the Arenaviruses family, is a re-emerging public health concern that has led to 300,000 infections and 5000 deaths annually in Africa. Highly prevalent in Sierra Leone, Liberia, Guinea, Nigeria, Côte d'lvoire, Ghana, Togo, and Benin, patients infected with the virus can manifest with cough, sore throat, headache, nausea, and vomiting among other symptoms. Coexisting with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and its impacts, cases of Lassa fever in the African population have been reported to decrease due to hesitancy in visiting clinics that leads to unreported cases-all contributing to a silent outbreak in West Africa. Thus, to overcome current burdens, gaps, and challenges caused by Lassa fever amidst COVID-19 in Africa, various recommendations for efficient control of transmission, measures for disease containment, and strategies to correct misperceptions were made.

Understanding COVID-19 in Africa.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has spread to all 55 countries in Africa. The prevalence is highly heterogeneous, and the majority of cases are asymptomatic. Several factors are thought to explain heterogeneity of COVID-19 in Africa, including the level of containment measures, demographic aspects, climate and environmental factors, host genetics and immune factors. Here, we discuss the prevalence of COVID-19 in Africa, the status of serological studies, COVID-19 and comorbidities, as well as the spread of SARS-CoV-2 variants and the status of vaccine roll-outs in Africa. In this Comment article, Sofonias Tessema and John Nkengasong provide an overview of the current state of the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa and the challenges posed by the triple burden of emerging, endemic and non-communicable diseases.

COVID-19 in Africa: Survey Analysis of Impact on Health-Care Workers.

.As coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spreads across Africa, little is known about the impact of the pandemic on health-care workers (HCWs) in the region. We designed an anonymous survey distributed via e-mail and phone messaging to 13 countries through the African Hepatitis B Network. We obtained 489 analyzable responses. We used risk ratio analysis to quantify the relationship between binary variables and χ2 testing to quantify the statistical significance of these relationships. Median age of respondents was 30 years (interquartile range, 26–36 years) and 63% were physicians. The top three sources of information used by HCWs for COVID-19 management included the Ministry of Health of each country, the WHO, and social media. Forty-nine percent reported a decrease in income since the start of the pandemic, with the majority experiencing between a 1% and a 25% salary reduction. Sixty-six percent reported some access to personal protective equipment; only 14% reported appropriate access. Moreover, one third of respondents reported no availability of ventilators at their facility. Strikingly, the percentage of HCWs reporting never feeling depressed changed from 61% before the pandemic to 31% during the pandemic, with a corresponding increase in daily depressive symptoms from 2% to 20%. Most respondents (> 97%) correctly answered survey questions about COVID-19 symptoms, virus transmission, and prevention. Our survey revealed African HCWs face a variety of personal and professional context-dependent challenges. Ongoing support of HCWs through and after the COVID-19 pandemic is essential.

A proposed framework to limit post-lockdown community transmission of COVID-19 in Africa.

As of March 11, 2021, 3,992,044 coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases and 106,615 deaths (case fatality rate 2.67%) have been reported on the African continent. In March 2020, even before the first case of COVID-19 was registered, some African countries implemented total lockdown measures, which limited movement of people, banned mass gatherings, and closed schools and borders. However, these control measures, which affect individuals and society's well-being, cannot be implemented for a long time. There is an urgent need for a robust framework to guide African countries to make evidence-based decisions on easing these restrictive measures and reapply them when the infection rates increase significantly. This article presents a proposed framework to guide lockdown easing while limiting the community spread of COVID-19 in Africa. Due to lack of information on the impact of relaxing restrictions on peoples' movement on the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent for COVID-19) and how businesses will respond, it is almost clear that there is no single grand lockdown exit strategy. African governments should develop flexible, iterative lockdown exit plans based on epidemiological disease data, economic indicators, and peoples' views to inform decisions, all of which are paramount for success. A phased approach of changes and willingness to adapt methods will allow governments to minimize the pandemic's adverse impact and respond accordingly as new control tools become available.

The COVID-19 Pandemic in Africa: Predictions using the SIR Model

Since the earliest reports of the Coronavirus disease - 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China in December 2019, the disease has rapidly spread worldwide, attaining pandemic levels in early March 2020. However, the spread of COVID-19 has differed in the African setting compared to countries on other continents. To predict the spread of COVID-19 in Africa and within each country on the continent, we applied a Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered mathematical model. Here, our results show that, overall, Africa is currently (May 29, 2020) at the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, after which we predict the number of cases would begin to fall in June 2020. Furthermore, we predict that the ending phase of the pandemic would be in Mid-August 2020 and that decreasing cases of COVID-19 infections would be detected until around December 2020 and January 2021. Our results also reveal that of the 51 countries with reported COVID-19 cases, only nine, including South Africa, Egypt and Ethiopia, are likely to report higher monthly COVID-19 cases in June 2020 than those reported in the previous months. Overall, at the end of this pandemic, we predict that approximately 279,000 (about 154,000 future cases) individuals in Africa would have been infected with the COVID-19 virus. Here, our predictions are data-driven and based on the previously observed trends in the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Shifts in the population dynamics and/or changes in the infectiousness of the COVID-19 virus may require new forecasts of the disease spread.

What could explain the late emergence of COVID-19 in Africa?

At the end of November 2019, a novel coronavirus responsible for respiratory tract infections emerged in China. Despite drastic containment measures, this virus, known as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), spread in Asia and Europe. The pandemic is ongoing with a particular hotspot in southern Europe and America in spring 2020. Many studies predicted an epidemic in Africa similar to that currently seen in Europe and the USA. However, reported data do not confirm these predictions. Several hypotheses that could explain the later emergence and spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in African countries are being discussed, including the lack of health-care infrastructure capable of clinically detecting and confirming COVID-19 cases, the implementation of social distancing and hygiene, international air traffic flows, the climate, the relatively young and rural population, the genetic polymorphism of the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 receptor, cross-immunity and the use of antimalarial drugs.