Deflection Of Coronal Mass Ejections Research Articles

A Statistical Analysis of Deflection of Coronal Mass Ejections in the Field of View of LASCO Coronagraphs

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can generate the most severe geomagnetic disturbances. One of the most critical factors affecting a CME’s geoeffectiveness is its trajectory. It is crucial to determine whether and when CME will hit Earth. It is commonly assumed that CMEs experience a deflection of propagation in the corona and in interplanetary space. In this study, we analyze more than 14,000 CMEs listed in the Coordinate Data Analysis Workshop (CDAW) catalog during 1996–2022 to estimate their deflection in the Large and Spectrometric Coronagraph field of view (LFOV). In our statistical analysis, the deflection was determined using the CME height–time measurements listed in the CDAW catalog. We have shown that, in the solar corona, CME deflection is a common phenomenon, heavily influenced by solar activity cycles as well as phases of these cycles. We have demonstrated that during periods of solar activity minima the deflection of CMEs is mostly toward the equator, and during periods of maxima it is mostly toward the poles. This general trend of deflection is further modified by the specific structure of the magnetic field generated during successive cycles of solar activity (e.g., the asymmetry between the hemispheres). A systematic increase in deflection with time was also recognized. We have also found that the deflection increases linearly with the distance from the Sun in the LFOV (the line slope is 0.5).

Recent insights on CME deflections at low heights

It has been shown that the magnetic structures surrounding coronal mass ejection (CME) events play a crucial role in their development and evolution along the first few solar radii. In particular, active regions, coronal holes, pseudostreamers, and helmet streamers are among the main coronal structures involved in the deviation of the trajectory of CMEs from their radial direction. Therefore, comprehensive observational studies along with their theoretical interpretation, aided by numerical simulations of the early evolution of CMEs, are the key ingredients to help determine their 3D trajectory in the interplanetary medium to narrow down the error in the estimation of the time of arrival of geoeffective events. In this mini-review, we compile the last decade of theoretical, numerical, and observational research that has shed light on the causes influencing the early deflection of CMEs away from their otherwise radial trajectory.

Trajectories of coronal mass ejection from solar-type stars

ABSTRACT The Sun and other solar-type stars have magnetic fields that permeate their interior and surface, extend through the interplanetary medium, and are the main drivers of stellar activity. Stellar magnetic activity affects the physical processes and conditions of the interplanetary medium and orbiting planets. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the most impactful of these phenomena in near-Earth space weather and consist of plasma clouds with a magnetic field, ejected from the solar corona. Precisely predicting the trajectory of CMEs is crucial in determining whether a CME will hit a planet and impact its magnetosphere and atmosphere. Despite the rapid developments in the search for stellar CMEs, their detection is still very incipient. In this work, we aim to better understand the propagation of CMEs by analysing the influence of initial parameters on CME trajectories, such as position, velocities, and the stellar magnetic field’s configuration. We reconstruct magnetograms for Kepler-63 (KIC 11554435) and Kepler-411 (KIC 11551692) from spot transit mapping, and use a CME deflection model, ForeCAT, to simulate trajectories of hypothetical CMEs launched into the interplanetary medium from Kepler-63 and Kepler-411. We apply the same methodology to the Sun, for comparison. Our results show that in general deflections and rotations of CMEs decrease with their radial velocity and increase with ejection latitude. Moreover, magnetic fields stronger than the Sun’s, such as Kepler-63’s, tend to cause greater CME deflections.

Pseudostreamer influence on flux rope evolution

Context. A highly important aspect of solar activity is the coupling between eruptions and the surrounding coronal magnetic field topology, which determines the trajectory and morphology of the ejected plasma. Pseudostreamers (PSs) are coronal magnetic structures formed by arcs of twin loops capped by magnetic field lines from coronal holes of the same polarity that meet at a central spine. PSs contain a single magnetic null point in the spine, immediately above the closed field lines, which potentially influences the evolution of nearby flux ropes (FRs). Aims. Because of the impact of magnetic FR eruptions on space weather, we aim to improve current understanding of the deflection of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). To understand the net effect of PSs on FR eruptions, it is first necessary to study diverse and isolated FR–PS scenarios that are not influenced by other magnetic structures. Methods. We performed numerical simulations in which a FR structure is in the vicinity of a PS magnetic configuration. The combined magnetic field of the PS and the FR results in the formation of two magnetic null points. We evolve this scenario by numerically solving the magnetohydrodynamic equations in 2.5D. The simulations consider a fully ionised compressible ideal plasma in the presence of a gravitational field and a stratified atmosphere. Results. We find that the dynamic behaviour of the FR can be categorised into three different classes based on the FR trajectories and whether it is eruptive or confined. Our analysis indicates that the magnetic null points are decisive in the direction and intensity of the FR deflection and their hierarchy depends on the topological arrangement of the scenario. Moreover, the PS lobe acts as a magnetic cage enclosing the FR. We report that the total unsigned magnetic flux of the cage is a key parameter defining whether or not the FR is ejected.

The Deflection of Coronal Mass Ejections by the Ambient Coronal Magnetic Field Configuration

AbstractSolar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are sometimes deflected during their propagation. This deflection may be the consequence of an interaction between the CME and the ambient coronal field, for example, a coronal hole, or the solar wind. The coronal magnetic field configuration is computed from daily synoptic maps of magnetic field from SOHO/MDI and SDO/HMI using a Potential Field Source Surface model. We analyze 30 halo‐CMEs whose deflection angle exceeds 90° by comparing the ambient magnetic field configuration and the measurement position angles of the CMEs. We find that the deflection of 87% of the CMEs (26 of 30) is consistent with the ambient magnetic field configuration, agreeing with previous studies. Of these 26, 69% are deflected toward the heliospheric current sheet, the boundary between the magnetic field polarities, and 31% toward a pseudo‐streamer, the boundary between same‐polarity magnetic field regions. This implies that the ambient coronal magnetic field configuration plays an important role in the deflection of CMEs and that the current sheet configuration is more important than a pseudo‐streamer. Of the 26 CMEs, the average and standard deviation of the minimum values of the deflection angle in three dimensions relative to an initially radial trajectory are 28° and 14°, respectively.

Influence of Coronal Holes on CME Deflections: Numerical Study

Abstract The understanding of the causes that produce the deflection of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is essential for the space weather forecast. We study the effects on CME trajectories produced by the different properties of a coronal hole (CH), close to the ejection area. We perform ideal magnetohydrodynamics simulations emulating the early rising of the CME in the presence of a CH. We find that, the stronger the magnetic field and the wider the CH area, the larger the CME deflection. The deflection reduces as the CH moves away from the ejection region. To quantify the deflection we propose a dimensionless parameter that depends on the CH properties. We show that a minimum magnetic energy region, responsible for the deflection, is associated with the presence of the CH near the CME. We establish a relationship between the CH properties, the location of the minimum magnetic region, and the CME deflection.

Numerical Simulation on the Propagation and Deflection of Fast Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) Interacting with a Corotating Interaction Region in Interplanetary Space

Abstract Previous research has shown that the deflection of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in interplanetary space, especially fast CMEs, is a common phenomenon. The deflection caused by the interaction with background solar wind is an important factor to determine whether CMEs could hit Earth or not. As the Sun rotates, there will be interactions between solar wind flows with different speeds. When faster solar wind runs into slower solar wind ahead, it will form a compressive area corotating with the Sun, which is called a corotating interaction region (CIR). These compression regions always have a higher density than the common background solar wind. When interacting with CME, will this make a difference in the deflection process of CME? In this research, first, a three-dimensional (3D) flux-rope CME initialization model is established based on the graduated cylindrical shell (GCS) model. Then this CME model is introduced into the background solar wind, which is obtained using a 3D IN (INterplanetary) -TVD-MHD model. The Carrington Rotation (CR) 2154 is selected as an example to simulate the propagation and deflection of fast CME when it interacts with background solar wind, especially with the CIR structure. The simulation results show that: (1) the fast CME will deflect eastward when it propagates into the background solar wind without the CIR; (2) when the fast CME hits the CIR on its west side, it will also deflect eastward, and the deflection angle will increase compared with the situation without CIR.

Frequency of Coronal Mass Ejection Impacts with Early Terrestrial Planets and Exoplanets around Active Solar-like Stars

Abstract Energetic flares and associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from young magnetically active solar-like stars can play a critical role in setting conditions for atmospheric escape as well as penetration of accelerated particles into their atmospheres that promotes formation of biologically relevant molecules. We have used the observationally reconstructed magnetic field of the 0.7 Gyr young Sun’s twin, k 1 Ceti, to study the effects of CME deflections in the magnetic corona of the young Sun and their effects on the impact frequency on the early Venus, Earth, and Mars. We find that the coronal magnetic field deflects the CMEs toward the astrospheric current sheet. This effect suggests that CMEs tend to propagate within a small cone about the ecliptic plane increasing the impact frequency of CMEs with planetary magnetospheres near this plane to ∼30% or by a factor of 6 as compared to previous estimate by Airapetian et al. Our model has important implications for the rise of prebiotic chemistry on early terrestrial planets as well as terrestrial-type exoplanets around young G-K dwarfs.

Large non-radial propagation of a coronal mass ejection on 2011 January 24

Understanding the deflection of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is of great interest to the space weather community because of their implications for improving the prediction of CME. This paper aims to shed light into the effects of the coronal magnetic field environment on CME trajectories. We analyze the influence of the magnetic environment on the early development of a particular CME event. On 2011 January 24 an eruptive filament was ejected in association with a CME that suffered a large deflection from its source region and expected trajectory. We characterize the 3D evolution of the prominence material using the tie-pointing/triangulation reconstruction technique on EUV and white-light images. To estimate the coordinates in 3D space of the apex of the CME we use a forward-modeling technique that reproduces the large-scale structure of the flux rope-like CME, the Graduated Cylindrical Shell model. We found that the deflection amounts to 42° in latitude and 20° in longitude and that most of it occurs at altitudes below 4R⊙. Moreover, we found a non-negligible deflection at higher altitudes. Combining images of different wavelengths with the extrapolated magnetic field obtained from a potential field source surface model we confirm the presence of two magnetic structures near the erupting event. The magnetic field environment suggests that field lines from the southern coronal hole act as a magnetic wall that produces the large latitudinal deflection; while a nearby pseudostreamer and a northward extension of the southern coronal hole may be responsible for the eastward deflection of the CME.

Corrugated Features in Coronal-mass-ejection-driven Shocks: A Discussion on the Predisposition to Particle Acceleration

The study of the acceleration of particles is an essential element of research in the heliospheric science. Here, we discuss the predisposition to the particle acceleration around coronal mass ejections (CMEs)-driven shocks with corrugated wave-like features. We adopt these attributes on shocks formed from disturbances due to the bimodal solar wind, CME deflection, irregular CME expansion, and the ubiquitous fluctuations in the solar corona. In order to understand the role of a wavy shock in particle acceleration, we define three initial smooth shock morphologies each one associated with a fast CME. Using polar Gaussian profiles we model these shocks in the low corona. We establish the corrugated appearance on smooth shock by using combinations of wave-like functions that represent the disturbances from medium and CME piston. For both shock types, smooth and corrugated, we calculate the shock normal angles between the shock normal and the radial upstream coronal magnetic field in order to classify the quasi-parallel and quasi-perpendicular regions. We consider that corrugated shocks are predisposed to different process of particle acceleration due to irregular distributions of shock normal angles around of the shock. We suggest that disturbances due to CME irregular expansion may be a decisive factor in origin of particle acceleration. Finally, we regard that accepting these features on shocks may be the start point for investigating some questions in the sheath and shock, like downstream-jets, instabilities, shock thermalization, shock stability, and injection particle process.

Numerical Simulations on the Deflection of Coronal Mass Ejections in the Interplanetary Space

Abstract Deflection of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the interplanetary space, especially in the ecliptic plane, serves as an important factor deciding whether CMEs arrive at the Earth. Observational studies have shown evidence for deflection, whose detailed dynamic processes, however, remain obscure. Here we developed a 2.5D ideal magnetohydrodynamic simulation to study the propagation of CMEs traveling with different speeds in the heliospheric equatorial plane. The simulation confirms the existence of the CME deflection in the interplanetary space, which is related to the difference between the CME speed (v r ) and the solar wind speed (v sw): a CME will propagate radially as v r is close to v sw but eastward or westward when v r is larger or smaller than v sw; the greater the difference is, the larger the deflection angle will be. This result supports the model for CME deflection in the interplanetary space (DIPS) proposed by Wang et al., predicting that an isolated CME can be deflected due to the pileup of solar wind plasma ahead of or behind the CME. Furthermore, the deflection angles, which are derived by inputting v r and v sw from the simulation into the DIPS model, are found to be consistent with those in the simulation.

The Reversal of a Solar Prominence Rotation about Its Ascending Direction during a Failed Eruption

Abstract The magnetic orientation of solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) near the Earth’s magnetosphere is one major parameter that influences the geoeffectiveness of CMEs. The orientation often varies during the eruption and propagation from the Sun to the Earth due to the deflection and/or rotation of CMEs. It is common to observe the counterclockwise (CCW) or clockwise (CW) rotation (viewed from above) of solar prominences in the corona, which can be used to predict the space weather effect of associated CMEs. In this Letter, we report an intriguing failed prominence eruption that occurred on 2010 December 10, exhibiting the CCW and CW rotations sequentially in the corona. The eruption is recorded by both the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory and the Extreme Ultraviolet Imager on board the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory. This stereoscopic combination allows us to reconstruct the three-dimensional structure and identify the rotation reversal without ambiguity. The prominence first rotates CCW about its ascending direction by ∼135° in ∼26 minutes and then reverses to the CW rotation by ∼45° in ∼15 minutes; i.e., the average CCW and CW rotation speeds are ∼5.2 and ∼3.0 deg minute−1, respectively. The possible mechanisms leading to the rotation and reversal are discussed. The kinematics of the prominence is also analyzed, which indicates that an upward force acts on the prominence during the entire process.

The Effects of Uncertainty in Initial CME Input Parameters on Deflection, Rotation, Bz, and Arrival Time Predictions

AbstractUnderstanding the effects of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) requires knowing if and when they will impact and their properties upon impact. Of particular importance is the strength of a CME's southward magnetic field component (Bz). Kay et al. (2013, https://doi:10.1088/0004-637X/775/1/5, 2015, https://doi:10.1088/948 0004-637X/805/2/168) have shown that the simplified analytic model Forecasting a CME's Altered Trajectory (ForeCAT) can reproduce the deflection and rotation of CMEs. Kay, Gopalswamy, Reinard, and Opher (2017, https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/835/2/117) introduced ForeCAT In situ Data Observer, which uses ForeCAT results to simulate magnetic field profiles. ForeCAT In situ Data Observer reproduces the in situ observations on roughly hourly time scales, suggesting that these models could be extremely useful for predictions of Bz. However, as with all models, both models are sensitive to their input parameters, which may not be precisely known for predictions. We explore this sensitivity using ensembles having small changes in the initial latitude, longitude, and orientation of the erupting CME. We explore the effects of different background magnetic field models and find that the changes in deflection and rotation resulting from the uncertainty in the initial parameters tend to exceed the changes from different magnetic backgrounds. The range in the in situ profiles tends to scale with the range in the deflection and rotation. We also consider a simple arrival time model using ForeCAT results and find an average absolute error of only 3 hr. We show that an uncertainty in the CME position of 8.1° ± 6.9° leads to variations of 6 hr in the arrival time. This measure depends strongly on the location of impact within the CME with the arrival time changing less for impacts near the nose.

Using the Coronal Evolution to Successfully Forward Model CMEs' In Situ Magnetic Profiles

AbstractPredicting the effects of a coronal mass ejection (CME) impact requires knowing if impact will occur, which part of the CME impacts, and its magnetic properties. We explore the relation between CME deflections and rotations, which change the position and orientation of a CME, and the resulting magnetic profiles at 1 AU. For 45 STEREO‐era, Earth‐impacting CMEs, we determine the solar source of each CME, reconstruct its coronal position and orientation, and perform a ForeCAT (Forecasting a CME's Altered Trajectory) simulation of the coronal deflection and rotation. From the reconstructed and modeled CME deflections and rotations, we determine the solar cycle variation and correlations with CME properties. We assume no evolution between the outer corona and 1 AU and use the ForeCAT results to drive the ForeCAT In situ Data Observer (FIDO) in situ magnetic field model, allowing for comparisons with ACE and Wind observations. We do not attempt to reproduce the arrival time. On average FIDO reproduces the in situ magnetic field for each vector component with an error equivalent to 35% of the average total magnetic field strength when the total modeled magnetic field is scaled to match the average observed value. Random walk best fits distinguish between ForeCAT's ability to determine FIDO's input parameters and the limitations of the simple flux rope model. These best fits reduce the average error to 30%. The FIDO results are sensitive to changes of order a degree in the CME latitude, longitude, and tilt, suggesting that accurate space weather predictions require accurate measurements of a CME's position and orientation.

Tracking CMEs using data from the Solar Stormwatch project; observing deflections and other properties

AbstractWith increasing technological dependence, society is becoming ever more affected by changes in the near‐Earth space environment caused by space weather. The primary driver of these hazards are coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Solar Stormwatch is a citizen science project in which volunteers participated in several activities which characterized CMEs in the remote sensing images from the Sun Earth Connection Coronal and Heliospheric Investigation (SECCHI) instrument package on the twin STEREO spacecraft. Here we analyze the results of the “Track‐it‐back” activity, in which CMEs were tracked back through the COR1, COR2, and EUVI images. Analysis of the COR1, COR2, and EUVI data together allows CMEs to be studied consistently throughout the whole field of view spanned by these instruments (out to 15 RS). A total of 4783 volunteers took part in this activity, creating a data set containing 23,801 estimates of CME timing, location, and size. We used these data to produce a catalogue of 41 CMEs, which is the first to consistently track CMEs through each of these instruments. We assess how the CME speeds, propagation directions, and widths vary as the CMEs propagate through the fields of view of the different imagers. In particular, we compare the observed CME deflections between the COR1 and COR2 fields of view to the separation between the CME source region and the heliospheric current sheet (HCS), demonstrating that in general, these CMEs appear to deflect toward the HCS, consistent with other modeling studies of CME propagation.

The Significance of the Influence of the CME Deflection in Interplanetary Space on the CME Arrival at Earth

Abstract As one of the most violent astrophysical phenomena, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have strong potential space weather effects. However, not all Earth-directed CMEs encounter the Earth and produce geo-effects. One reason is the deflected propagation of CMEs in interplanetary space. Although there have been several case studies clearly showing such deflections, it has not yet been statistically assessed how significantly the deflected propagation would influence the CME’s arrival at Earth. We develop an integrated CME-arrival forecasting (iCAF) system, assembling the modules of CME detection, three-dimensional (3D) parameter derivation, and trajectory reconstruction to predict whether or not a CME arrives at Earth, and we assess the deflection influence on the CME-arrival forecasting. The performance of iCAF is tested by comparing the two-dimensional (2D) parameters with those in the Coordinated Data Analysis Workshop (CDAW) Data Center catalog, comparing the 3D parameters with those of the gradual cylindrical shell model, and estimating the success rate of the CME Earth-arrival predictions. It is found that the 2D parameters provided by iCAF and the CDAW catalog are consistent with each other, and the 3D parameters derived by the ice cream cone model based on single-view observations are acceptable. The success rate of the CME-arrival predictions by iCAF with deflection considered is about 82%, which is 19% higher than that without deflection, indicating the importance of the CME deflection for providing a reliable forecasting. Furthermore, iCAF is a worthwhile project since it is a completely automatic system with deflection taken into account.

Deflection and Rotation of CMEs from Active Region 11158.

Between 13 and 16 February 2011, a series of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) erupted from multiple polarity inversion lines within active region 11158. For seven of these CMEs we employ the graduated cylindrical shell (GCS) flux rope model to determine the CME trajectory using both Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and coronagraph images. We then use the model called Forecasting a CME's Altered Trajectory (ForeCAT) for nonradial CME dynamics driven by magnetic forces to simulate the deflection and rotation of the seven CMEs. We find good agreement between ForeCAT results and reconstructed CME positions and orientations. The CME deflections range in magnitude between 10° and 30°. All CMEs are deflected to the north, but we find variations in the direction of the longitudinal deflection. The rotations range between 5° and 50° with both clockwise and counterclockwise rotations. Three of the CMEs begin with initial positions within 2° from one another. These three CMEs are all deflected primarily northward, with some minor eastward deflection, and rotate counterclockwise. Their final positions and orientations, however, differ by 20° and 30°, respectively. This variation in deflection and rotation results from differences in the CME expansion and radial propagation close to the Sun, as well as from the CME mass. Ultimately, only one of these seven CMEs yielded discernible in situ signatures near Earth, although the active region faced toward Earth throughout the eruptions. We suggest that the differences in the deflection and rotation of the CMEs can explain whether each CME impacted or missed Earth.

Predicting the Magnetic Field of Earth-impacting CMEs

Abstract Predicting the impact of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and the southward component of their magnetic field is one of the key goals of space weather forecasting. We present a new model, the ForeCAT In situ Data Observer (FIDO), for predicting the in situ magnetic field of CMEs. We first simulate a CME using ForeCAT, a model for CME deflection and rotation resulting from the background solar magnetic forces. Using the CME position and orientation from ForeCAT, we then determine the passage of the CME over a simulated spacecraft. We model the CME’s magnetic field using a force-free flux rope and we determine the in situ magnetic profile at the synthetic spacecraft. We show that FIDO can reproduce the general behavior of four observed CMEs. FIDO results are very sensitive to the CME’s position and orientation, and we show that the uncertainty in a CME’s position and orientation from coronagraph images corresponds to a wide range of in situ magnitudes and even polarities. This small range of positions and orientations also includes CMEs that entirely miss the satellite. We show that two derived parameters (the normalized angular distance between the CME nose and satellite position and the angular difference between the CME tilt and the position angle of the satellite with respect to the CME nose) can be used to reliably determine whether an impact or miss occurs. We find that the same criteria separate the impacts and misses for cases representing all four observed CMEs.

USING ForeCAT DEFLECTIONS AND ROTATIONS TO CONSTRAIN THE EARLY EVOLUTION OF CMEs

ABSTRACT To accurately predict the space weather effects of the impacts of coronal mass ejection (CME) at Earth one must know if and when a CME will impact Earth and the CME parameters upon impact. In 2015 Kay et al. presented Forecasting a CME’s Altered Trajectory (ForeCAT), a model for CME deflections based on the magnetic forces from the background solar magnetic field. Knowing the deflection and rotation of a CME enables prediction of Earth impacts and the orientation of the CME upon impact. We first reconstruct the positions of the 2010 April 8 and the 2012 July 12 CMEs from the observations. The first of these CMEs exhibits significant deflection and rotation (34° deflection and 58° rotation), while the second shows almost no deflection or rotation (<3° each). Using ForeCAT, we explore a range of initial parameters, such as the CME’s location and size, and find parameters that can successfully reproduce the behavior for each CME. Additionally, since the deflection depends strongly on the behavior of a CME in the low corona, we are able to constrain the expansion and propagation of these CMEs in the low corona.

On the propagation of a geoeffective coronal mass ejection during 15–17 March 2015

AbstractThe largest geomagnetic storm so far, called 2015 St. Patrick's Day event, in the solar cycle 24 was produced by a fast coronal mass ejection (CME) originating on 15 March 2015. It was an initially west‐oriented CME and expected to only cause a weak geomagnetic disturbance. Why did this CME finally cause such a large geomagnetic storm? We try to find some clues by investigating its propagation from the Sun to 1 AU. First, we reconstruct the CME's kinematic properties in the corona from the SOHO and Solar Dynamics Observatory imaging data with the aid of the graduated cylindrical shell model. It is suggested that the CME propagated to the west ∼33°±10° away from the Sun‐Earth line with a speed of about 817 km s−1 before leaving the field of view of the SOHO/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) C3 camera. A magnetic cloud (MC) corresponding to this CME was measured in situ by the Wind spacecraft 2 days after the CME left LASCO's field of view. By applying two MC reconstruction methods, we infer the configuration of the MC as well as some kinematic information, which implies that the CME possibly experienced an eastward deflection on its way to 1 AU. However, due to the lack of observations from the STEREO spacecraft, the CME's kinematic evolution in interplanetary space is not clear. In order to fill this gap, we utilize numerical MHD simulation, drag‐based CME propagation model (DBM) and the model for CME deflection in interplanetary space (DIPS) to recover the propagation process, especially the trajectory, of the CME from 30RS to 1 AU under the constraints of the derived CME's kinematics near the Sun and at 1 AU. It is suggested that the trajectory of the CME was deflected toward the Earth by about 12°, consistent with the implication from the MC reconstruction at 1 AU. This eastward deflection probably contributed to the CME's unexpected geoeffectiveness by pushing the center of the initially west‐oriented CME closer to the Earth.