Coronal Mass Ejection Shock Research Articles

A scheme for forecasting severe space weather

AbstractA scheme is suggested and tested for forecasting severe space weather (SvSW) using solar wind velocity (V) and the north‐south component (Bz) of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) measured using the ACE (Advanced Composition Explorer) satellite from 1998 to 2016. SvSW has caused all known electric power outages and telegraph system failures. Earlier SvSW events such as the Carrington event of 1859, Quebec event of 1989 and an event in 1958 are included with information from the literature. Dst storms are used as references to identify 89 major space weather events (DstMin ≤ −100 nT) in 1998–2016. The coincidence of high coronal mass ejection (CME) front (or CME shock) velocity ΔV (sudden increase in V over the background by over 275 km/s) and sufficiently large Bz southward at the time of the ΔV increase is associated with SvSW; and their product (ΔV × Bz) is found to exhibit a large negative spike at the speed increase. Such a product (ΔV × Bz) exceeding a threshold seems suitable for forecasting SvSW. However, the coincidence of high V (not containing ΔV) and large Bz southward does not correspond to SvSW, indicating the importance of the impulsive action of large Bz southward and high ΔV coming through when they coincide. The need for the coincidence is verified using the CRCM (Comprehensive Ring Current Model), which produces extreme Dst storms (<DstMP> < −250 nT) characterizing SvSW when there is coincidence.

Fermi-LAT Observations of High-energy Behind-the-limb Solar Flares

Abstract We report on the Fermi-LAT detection of high-energy emission from the behind-the-limb (BTL) solar flares that occurred on 2013 October 11, and 2014 January 6 and September 1. The Fermi-LAT observations are associated with flares from active regions originating behind both the eastern and western limbs, as determined by STEREO. All three flares are associated with very fast coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and strong solar energetic particle events. We present updated localizations of the >100 MeV photon emission, hard X-ray (HXR) and EUV images, and broadband spectra from 10 keV to 10 GeV, as well as microwave spectra. We also provide a comparison of the BTL flares detected by Fermi-LAT with three on-disk flares and present a study of some of the significant quantities of these flares as an attempt to better understand the acceleration mechanisms at work during these occulted flares. We interpret the HXR emission to be due to electron bremsstrahlung from a coronal thin-target loop top with the accelerated electron spectra steepening at semirelativistic energies. The >100 MeV gamma-rays are best described by a pion-decay model resulting from the interaction of protons (and other ions) in a thick-target photospheric source. The protons are believed to have been accelerated (to energies >10 GeV) in the CME environment and precipitate down to the photosphere from the downstream side of the CME shock and landed on the front side of the Sun, away from the original flare site and the HXR emission.

PARTICLE ACCELERATION IN SOLAR FLARES AND ASSOCIATED CME SHOCKS

ABSTRACT Observations relating the characteristics of electrons seen near Earth (solar energetic particles [SEPs]) and those producing flare radiation show that in certain (prompt) events the origin of both populations appears to be the flare site, which shows strong correlation between the number and spectral index of SEP and hard X-ray radiating electrons, but in others (delayed), which are associated with fast coronal mass ejections (CMEs), this relation is complex and SEPs tend to be harder. Prompt event spectral relation disagrees with that expected in thick or thin target models. We show that using a more accurate treatment of the transport of the accelerated electrons to the footpoints and to Earth can account for this discrepancy. Our results are consistent with those found by Chen & Petrosian for two flares using nonparametric inversion methods, according to which we have weak diffusion conditions, and trapping mediated by magnetic field convergence. The weaker correlations and harder spectra of delayed events can come about by reacceleration of electrons in the CME shock environment. We describe under what conditions such a hardening can be achieved. Using this (acceleration at the flare and reacceleration in the CME) scenario, we show that we can describe the similar dichotomy that exists between the so-called impulsive, highly enriched (3He and heavy ions), and softer SEP events and stronger, more gradual SEP events with near-normal ionic abundances and harder spectra. These methods can be used to distinguish the acceleration mechanisms and to constrain their characteristics.

SPECTRAL PROPERTIES OF LARGE GRADUAL SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS. II. SYSTEMATIC Q/M DEPENDENCE OF HEAVY ION SPECTRAL BREAKS

ABSTRACT We fit ∼0.1–500 MeV nucleon−1 H–Fe spectra in 46 large solar energetic particle (SEP) events with the double power-law Band function to obtain a normalization constant, low- and high-energy parameters γ a and γ b, and break energy E B, and derive the low-energy spectral slope γ 1. We find that: (1) γ a, γ 1, and γ b are species-independent and the spectra steepen with increasing energy; (2) E B decreases systematically with decreasing Q/M scaling as (Q/M) α ; (3) α varies between ∼0.2–3 and is well correlated with the ∼0.16–0.23 MeV nucleon−1 Fe/O; (4) in most events, α < 1.4, γ b–γ a > 3, and O E B increases with γ b–γ a; and (5) in many extreme events (associated with faster coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and GLEs), Fe/O and 3He/4He ratios are enriched, α ≥ 1.4, γ b–γ a < 3, and E B decreases with γ b–γ a. The species-independence of γ a, γ 1, and γ b and the Q/M dependence of E B within an event and the α values suggest that double power-law SEP spectra occur due to diffusive acceleration by near-Sun CME shocks rather than scattering in interplanetary turbulence. Using γ 1, we infer that the average compression ratio for 33 near-Sun CME shocks is 2.49 ± 0.08. In most events, the Q/M dependence of E B is consistent with the equal diffusion coefficient condition and the variability in α is driven by differences in the near-shock wave intensity spectra, which are flatter than the Kolmogorov turbulence spectrum but weaker than the spectra for extreme events. In contrast, in extreme events, enhanced wave power enables faster CME shocks to accelerate impulsive suprathermal ions more efficiently than ambient coronal ions.

Automated detection of geomagnetic storms with heightened risk of GIC

Automated detection of geomagnetic storms is of growing importance to operators of technical infrastructure (e.g., power grids, satellites), which is susceptible to damage caused by the consequences of geomagnetic storms. In this study, we compare three methods for automated geomagnetic storm detection: a method analyzing the first derivative of the geomagnetic variations, another looking at the Akaike information criterion, and a third using multi-resolution analysis of the maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform of the variations. These detection methods are used in combination with an algorithm for the detection of coronal mass ejection shock fronts in ACE solar wind data prior to the storm arrival on Earth as an additional constraint for possible storm detection. The maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform is found to be the most accurate of the detection methods. The final storm detection software, implementing analysis of both satellite solar wind and geomagnetic ground data, detects 14 of 15 more powerful geomagnetic storms over a period of 2 years.

Gas dynamic modeling of the CME propagation through the envelope of a hot Jupiter-type exoplanet

We propose a 3D gasdynamic numerical model for the study of the interaction between the extended envelopes of hot Jupiters, overfilling their Roche lobes, and non-stationary stellar wind. In the model we use a Roe-Osher numerical scheme with Eindfeldt entropy fix. To test the model we have simulated a flow structure, forming due to the interaction between the extended quasi-stationary envelope of the hot Jupiter planet HD 209458b and the bow shock formed ahead of a propagating coronal mass ejection (CME). We have adopted the solar CME parameters in our computations and taken into account the fact that the planet is located close to its host star. The simulation results show that the bow shock of the CME partially destroys the stream, starting from the Li point of the quasi-closed planet's envelope. A bow shock, existing ahead of the planet in its orbital motion when the stellar wind is undisturbed, almost disappears when the CME shock passes through the system.

MULTI-VIEWPOINT OBSERVATIONS OF A WIDELY DISTRIBUTED SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENT: THE ROLE OF EUV WAVES AND WHITE-LIGHT SHOCK SIGNATURES

ABSTRACT On 2012 March 7, two large eruptive events occurred in the same active region within 1 hr from each other. Each consisted of an X-class flare, a coronal mass ejection (CME), an extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) wave, and a shock wave. The eruptions gave rise to a major solar energetic particle (SEP) event observed at widely separated (∼120°) points in the heliosphere. From multi-viewpoint energetic proton recordings we determine the proton release times at STEREO B and A (STB, STA) and the first Lagrange point (L1) of the Sun–Earth system. Using EUV and white-light data, we determine the evolution of the EUV waves in the low corona and reconstruct the global structure and kinematics of the first CME’s shock, respectively. We compare the energetic proton release time at each spacecraft with the EUV waves’ arrival times at the magnetically connected regions and the timing and location of the CME shock. We find that the first flare/CME is responsible for the SEP event at all three locations. The proton release at STB is consistent with arrival of the EUV wave and CME shock at the STB footpoint. The proton release time at L1 was significantly delayed compared to STB. Three-dimensional modeling of the CME shock shows that the particle release at L1 is consistent with the timing and location of the shock’s western flank. This indicates that at L1 the proton release did not occur in low corona but farther away from the Sun. However, the extent of the CME shock fails to explain the SEP event observed at STA. A transport process or a significantly distorted interplanetary magnetic field may be responsible.

The early Earth under a superflare and super-CME attack: prospects for life

AbstractKepler observations suggest that G-type stars produce powerful flares suggesting that the early Earth may also have been exposed to frequent and energetic solar explosive events generated by the young Sun. We show that powerful coronal mass ejection (CME) events associated with superflares impacting the Earth magnetosphere with a frequency of 1 event/day. What was the impact of superflares, CMEs and associated solar energetic particle (SEPs) events on the atmospheric erosion of the young Earth and habitability? In this paper we discuss our three-dimensional (3D) magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations that show that frequent and energetic CMEs from the early Sun continuously destroyed the sub-solar parts of Earth's magnetosphere at heights < 1.25 RE. This suggests that CME shock accelerated energetic protons are capable of penetrating into the polar cap region and breaking atmospheric molecular nitrogen, the major ingredient of the early Earth atmosphere, into atomic nitrogen. Photo-collisional dissociation of molecular nitrogen and carbon dioxide creates reactive chemistry that efficiently produces nitrous oxide and hydrogen cyanide, the essential molecule in prebiotic life chemistry. This raises an possibility that frequent super-CMEs could serve as a potential catalyst for the origin of life on early Earth.

EVIDENCE OF THE SOLAR EUV HOT CHANNEL AS A MAGNETIC FLUX ROPE FROM REMOTE-SENSING AND IN SITU OBSERVATIONS

Hot channels (HCs), high temperature erupting structures in the lower corona of the Sun, have been proposed as a proxy of magnetic flux ropes (MFRs) since their initial discovery. However, it is difficult to make definitive proof given the fact that there is no direct measurement of magnetic field in the corona. An alternative way is to use the magnetic field measurement in the solar wind from in-situ instruments. On 2012 July 12, an HC was observed prior to and during a coronal mass ejection (CME) by the AIA high-temperature images. The HC is invisible in the EUVI low-temperature images, which only show the cooler leading front (LF). However, both the LF and an ejecta can be observed in the coronagraphic images. These are consistent with the high temperature and high density of the HC and support that the ejecta is the erupted HC. In the meanwhile, the associated CME shock was identified ahead of the ejecta and the sheath through the COR2 images, and the corresponding ICME was detected by \textit{ACE}, showing the shock, sheath and magnetic cloud (MC) sequentially, which agrees with the coronagraphic observations. Further, the MC contained a low-ionization-state center and a high-ionization-state shell, consistent with the pre-existing HC observation and its growth through magnetic reconnection. All of these observations support that the MC detected near the Earth is the counterpart of the erupted HC in the corona for this event. Therefore, our study provides strong observational evidence of the HC as an MFR.

BARREL observations of an ICME‐shock impact with the magnetosphere and the resultant radiation belt electron loss

AbstractThe Balloon Array for Radiation belt Relativistic Electron Losses (BARREL) mission of opportunity working in tandem with the Van Allen Probes was designed to study the loss of radiation belt electrons to the ionosphere and upper atmosphere. BARREL is also sensitive to X‐rays from other sources. During the second BARREL campaign, the Sun produced an X‐class flare followed by a solar energetic particle event (SEP) associated with the same active region. Two days later on 9 January 2014, the shock generated by the coronal mass ejection (CME) originating from the active region hits the Earth while BARREL was in a close conjunction with the Van Allen Probes. Time History Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms (THEMIS) satellite observed the impact of the interplanetary CME (ICME) shock near the magnetopause, and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) were on either side of the BARREL/Van Allen Probe array. The solar interplanetary magnetic field was not ideally oriented to cause a significant geomagnetic storm, but compression from the shock impact led to the loss of radiation belt electrons. We propose that an azimuthal electric field impulse generated by magnetopause compression caused inward electron transport and minimal loss. This process also drove chorus waves, which were responsible for most of the precipitation observed outside the plasmapause. Observations of hiss inside the plasmapause explain the absence of loss at this location. ULF waves were found to be correlated with the structure of the precipitation. We demonstrate how BARREL can monitor precipitation following an ICME‐shock impact at Earth in a cradle‐to‐grave view; from flare, to SEP, to electron precipitation.

Interplanetary Propagation Behavior of the Fast Coronal Mass Ejection on 23 July 2012

The fast coronal mass ejection (CME) from 23 July 2012 raised attention due to its extremely short transit time from Sun to 1 AU of less than 21 h. In-situ data from STEREO-A revealed the arrival of a fast forward shock with a speed of more than 2200 km s$^{-1}$ followed by a magnetic structure moving with almost 1900 km s$^{-1}$. We investigate the propagation behavior of the CME shock and magnetic structure with the aim to reproduce the short transit time and high impact speed as derived from in-situ data. We carefully measure the 3D kinematics of the CME using the graduated cylindrical shell model, and obtain a maximum speed of 2580$\pm$280 km s$^{-1}$ for the CME shock and of 2270$\pm$420 km s$^{-1}$ for its magnetic structure. Based on the 3D kinematics, the drag-based model (DBM) reproduces the observational data reasonably well. To successfully simulate the CME shock, we find that the ambient flow speed should be of average value close to the slow solar wind speed (450 km s$^{-1}$), and the initial shock speed at a distance of 30 $R_{\odot}$ should not exceed $\approx$2300 km s$^{-1}$, otherwise it would arrive much too early at STEREO-A. The model results indicate that an extremely low aerodynamic drag force is exerted on the shock, smaller by one order of magnitude compared to the average. As a consequence, the CME hardly decelerates in interplanetary space and maintains its high initial speed. The low aerodynamic drag can only be reproduced when reducing the density of the ambient solar wind flow, in which the massive CME propagates, to $\rho_{\rm sw}$=1-2 cm$^{-3}$ at the distance of 1 AU. This result is consistent with the preconditioning of interplanetary space owing to a previous CME.

Statistical Evidence for Contributions of Flares and Coronal Mass Ejections to Major Solar Energetic Particle Events

Solar energetic particle (SEP) events are related to flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). This work is a new investigation of statistical relationships between SEP peak intensities – deka-MeV protons and near-relativistic electrons – and characteristic quantities of the associated solar activity. We consider the speed of the CME and quantities describing the flare-related energy release: peak flux and fluence of soft X-ray (SXR) emission and the fluence of microwave emission. The sample comprises 38 SEP events associated with strong SXR bursts (classes M and X) in the western solar hemisphere between 1997 and 2006, in which the flare-related particle acceleration was accompanied by radio bursts indicating electron escape into the interplanetary space. The main distinction of the present statistical analysis from earlier work is that in addition to the classical Pearson correlation coefficient, the partial correlation coefficients are calculated to remove the correlation effects between the solar parameters themselves. The classical correlation analysis shows the usual picture of correlations with broad scatter between SEP peak intensities and the different parameters of solar activity and strong correlations between the solar activity parameters themselves. The partial correlation analysis shows that the only parameters that significantly affect the SEP intensity are the CME speed and the SXR fluence. The SXR peak flux and the microwave fluence make no additional contribution. We conclude that these findings bring statistical evidence that both flare acceleration and CME shock acceleration contribute to the deka-MeV proton and near-relativistic electron populations in large SEP events.

A MODEL FOR THE ESCAPE OF SOLAR-FLARE-ACCELERATED PARTICLES

We address the problem of how particles that are accelerated by solar flares can escape promptly into the heliosphere, on time scales of an hour or less. Impulsive solar energetic particles (SEP) bursts are generally observed in association with so-called eruptive flares consisting of a coronal mass ejection (CME) and a flare. These highly prompt SEPs are believed to be accelerated directly by the flare, rather than by the CME shock, although the precise mechanism by which the particles are accelerated remains controversial. Whatever their origin, within the magnetic geometry of the standard eruptive-flare model, the accelerated particles should remain trapped in the closed magnetic fields of the coronal flare loops and the ejected flux rope. In this case the particles would reach the Earth only after a delay of many hours to a few days, when the bulk ejecta arrive at Earth. We propose that the external magnetic reconnection intrinsic to the breakout model for CME initiation can naturally account for the prompt escape of flare-accelerated energetic particles onto open interplanetary magnetic flux tubes. We present detailed 2.5D MHD simulations of a breakout CME/flare event with a background isothermal solar wind. Our calculations demonstrate that if the event occurs sufficiently near a coronal-hole boundary, interchange reconnection between open and closed field can occur, which allows particles from deep inside the ejected flux rope to access solar wind field lines soon after eruption. We compare these results with the standard observations of impulsive SEPs and discuss the implications of the model for further observations and calculations.

Propagation of normal and faster CMEs in the interplanetary medium

We have analyzed 101 Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) events and their associated interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) and interplanetary (IP) shocks observed during the period 1997–2005 from the list given by Mujiber Rahman et al. (2012). The aim of the present work is to correlate the interplanetary parameters such as, the speeds of IP shocks and ICMEs, CME transit time and their relation with CME parameters near the Sun. Mainly, a group of 10 faster CME events (VINT>2200km/s) are compared with a list of 91 normal events of Manoharan et al. (2004). From the distribution diagrams of CME, ICME and IP shock speeds, we note that a large number of events tends to narrow towards the ambient (i.e., background) solar wind speed (∼500km/s) in agreement with the literature. Also, we found that the IP shock speed and the average ICME speed measured at 1AU are well correlated. In addition, the IP shock speed is found to be slightly higher than the ICME speed. While the normal events show CME travel time in the range of ∼40–80h with a mean value of 65h, the faster events have lower transit time with a mean value of 40h. The effect of solar wind drag is studied using the correlation of CME acceleration with interplanetary (IP) acceleration and with other parameters of ICMEs. While the mean acceleration values of normal and faster CMEs in the LASCO FOV are 1m/s2, 18m/s2, they are −1.5m/s2 and −14m/s2 in the interplanetary medium, respectively. The relation between CME speed and IP acceleration for normal and faster events are found to agree with that of Lindsay et al. (1999) and Gopalswamy et al. (2001) except slight deviations for the faster events. It is also seen that the faster events with less travel time face higher negative acceleration (>−10m/s2) in the interplanetary medium up to 1AU.

A HIGH-FREQUENCY TYPE II SOLAR RADIO BURST ASSOCIATED WITH THE 2011 FEBRUARY 13 CORONAL MASS EJECTION

We examine the relationship between the high-frequency (425 MHz) type II radio burst and the associated white-light coronal mass ejection (CME) that occurred on 2011 February 13. The radio burst had a drift rate of 2.5 MHz s–1, indicating a relatively high shock speed. From SDO/AIA observations we find that a loop-like erupting front sweeps across high-density coronal loops near the start time of the burst (17:34:17 UT). The deduced distance of shock formation (0.06 Rs) from the flare center and speed of the shock (1100 km s–1) using the measured density from SDO/AIA observations are comparable to the height (0.05 Rs, from the solar surface) and speed (700 km s–1) of the CME leading edge observed by STEREO/EUVI. We conclude that the type II burst originates even in the low corona (<59 Mm or 0.08 Rs, above the solar surface) due to the fast CME shock passing through high-density loops.

On the Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection Shocks in the Vicinity of the Earth

We studied the relation between the near-Earth signatures of the interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) shocks such as sudden storms commencement (SSC), and their counterparts of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed near-Sun by solar and heliospheric observatory (SOHO)/large angle and spectrometric coronagraph (LASCO) coronagraph during 1996–2008. Our result showed that there is a good correlation between the travel time of the ICMEs shocks and their associated radial speeds. Also we have separated the ICME shocks into two groups according to their effective acceleration and deceleration. The results showed that the faster ICME shocks (with negative accelerations which decelerated by solar wind plasma) are more correlated to their associated travel time than those with positive accelerations.

Super- and sub-critical regions in shocks driven by radio-loud and radio-quiet CMEs

White-light coronagraphic images of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) observed by SOHO/LASCO C2 have been used to estimate the density jump along the whole front of two CME-driven shocks. The two events are different in that the first one was a “radio-loud” fast CME, while the second one was a “radio quiet” slow CME. From the compression ratios inferred along the shock fronts, we estimated the Alfvén Mach numbers for the general case of an oblique shock. It turns out that the “radio-loud” CME shock is initially super-critical around the shock center, while later on the whole shock becomes sub-critical. On the contrary, the shock associated with the “radio-quiet” CME is sub-critical at all times. This suggests that CME-driven shocks could be efficient particle accelerators at the shock nose only at the initiation phases of the event, if and when the shock is super-critical, while at later times they lose their energy and the capability to accelerate high energetic particles.

A Statistical Study on CMEs Associated with DH-Type-II Radio Bursts Based on Their Source Location (Limb and Disk Events)

We have statistically studied the 344 Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) associated with flares and DH-type-II radio bursts (1 – 14 MHz) during 1997 – 2008. We found that only 3 % of the total CMEs (344) compared to the general population CMEs (13208) drives DH-type-II radio bursts (Gopalswamy in Solar Eruptions and Energetic Particles, AGU Geophys. Monogr. 165, 207, 2006). Out of 344 events we have selected 236 events for further analysis. We divided the events into two groups: i) disk events (within 45° from the disk center) and ii) limb events (beyond 45° but within 90° from the disk center). We find that the average CME speed of the limb events (1370 km s−1) is three times, while for the disk events (1055 km s−1) it is two times the average speed of the general population CMEs (433 km s−1). The average widths of the limb events (129°) and disk events (116°) are two times greater than the average width of the general population CMEs (58°). We found a better correlation between the CME speed and width (correlation coefficient R=0.56) for the limb events than that of the disk events (R=0.47). The shock speed of the CMEs associated with DH-type-II radio bursts is found by applying Leblanc, Dulk, and Bougeret’s (Solar Phys. 183, 165, 1998) electron density model; the disk events are found to have an average speed of 1190 km s−1 and that of the limb events is 1275 km s−1. From this study we compare the CME properties between limb and disk events. The properties like CME speed, width, shock speed, and correlation between CME speed and width are found to be higher for limb events than disk events. The results in disk events are subject to projection effects, and this study stresses the importance of these effects.

RADIAL DEPENDENCE OF PEAK PROTON AND IRON ION FLUXES IN SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS: APPLICATION OF THE PATH CODE

The radial dependence of particle peak fluxes in large solar energetic particle (SEP) events is important in determining the potential impact of space weather hazards on space missions. Using the Particle Acceleration and Transport in the Heliosphere code, we model the acceleration and transport of protons and iron ions at evolving coronal mass ejection shocks propagating throughout the inner heliosphere from about 0.1 to 2.5 AU. An example shock with a compression ratio of 3.9 and a speed of 1000 km s{sup -1} close to the Sun is modeled using a two-dimensional MHD ZEUS code. The compression ratio and shock speed weakened to 2.3 and 630 km s{sup -1}, correspondingly, at 2 AU. Shocks with 15 Degree-Sign , 45 Degree-Sign , and 75 Degree-Sign angles between the upstream magnetic field and the shock normal were studied. The shock angle was kept constant throughout the simulation. Both gradual and impulsive events are studied. Diffusive shock acceleration is assumed at the shock and we use a total diffusion coefficient that includes a parallel diffusion coefficient which takes into account the upstream wave amplification, and a perpendicular diffusion coefficient which is based on the NonLinear Guiding Center theory. The transport of particles escapingmore » from the shock is modeled using a Monte Carlo approach. Time-intensity profiles for protons and iron ions are obtained. We analyzed the radial dependence of peak fluxes (J) for both protons and iron ions from 0.5 to 2 AU. We find that the functional dependence is softer than R {sup -3} and is about R {sup -2.9} to R {sup -1.8} in the energy range of 0.3-5 MeV nuc{sup -1}. Quasi-perpendicular shock showed a steeper radial dependence than a quasi-parallel shock. Mixed events show a softer radial dependence at energies above 500 keV nuc{sup -1} for iron ions and above 1 MeV for protons. The values of J(R) depend on seed particle composition, particle energy, shock obliquity, and the interplanetary turbulence level. Consequently, we advocate using SEP event-specific computer modeling rather than empirical formulae for future forecasting of the radiation environment throughout the heliosphere during large SEP events.« less

Radio‐loud CMEs from the disk center lacking shocks at 1 AU

A coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with a type II burst and originating close to the center of the solar disk typically results in a shock at Earth in 2–3 days and hence can be used to predict shock arrival at Earth. However, a significant fraction (about 28%) of such CMEs producing type II bursts were not associated with shocks at Earth. We examined a set of 21 type II bursts observed by the Wind/WAVES experiment at decameter‐hectometric (DH) wavelengths that had CME sources very close to the disk center (within a central meridian distance of 30 degrees), but did not have a shock at Earth. We find that the near‐Sun speeds of these CMEs average to ∼644 km/s, only slightly higher than the average speed of CMEs associated with radio‐quiet shocks. However, the fraction of halo CMEs is only ∼30%, compared to 54% for the radio‐quiet shocks and 91% for all radio‐loud shocks. We conclude that the disk‐center radio‐loud CMEs with no shocks at 1 AU are generally of lower energy and they drive shocks only close to the Sun and dissipate before arriving at Earth. There is also evidence for other possible processes that lead to the lack of shock at 1 AU: (i) overtaking CME shocks merge and one observes a single shock at Earth, and (ii) deflection by nearby coronal holes can push the shocks away from the Sun‐Earth line, such that Earth misses these shocks. The probability of observing a shock at 1 AU increases rapidly above 60% when the CME speed exceeds 1000 km/s and when the type II bursts propagate to frequencies below 1 MHz.