Climate change is driving a poleward shift in the optimal distributions of terrestrial organisms, including trees. Consequently, trees are expected to decrease in climatically unfavourable areas as their optimal climatic conditions shift poleward. This is the case of Mediterranean High Nature Value agroforestry systems in Iberian Peninsula, dominated by holm oaks (Quercus rotundifolia) and cork oaks (Quercus suber), which are expected to shift their future distribution northward. Failure to keep pace with climate warming poses a heightened risk of extinction for these tree species, as well as the loss of crucial ecosystem services they provide. A similar situation is found for argan trees (Argania spinosa) in the southwestern region of Morocco, where it also supports an agroforestry system. The optimum climate for these trees is also shifting northward, toward the Iberian Peninsula. As the argan tree thrives in more arid conditions with irregular precipitation, the future climatic conditions in the Iberian Peninsula may become favourable for the persistence of this tree. In light of this situation, the assisted colonization of the argan tree could potentially contribute to protecting and preserving the tree-associated ecosystem services in Iberian Peninsula. We conducted climate suitability modelling using maximum entropy approach, for both the current and future timeframes, for North of Morocco and Algeria (native range) and the whole Iberian Peninsula (non-native range). Accordingly, there appears to be a significant area with highly suitable climatic conditions (>80 %) for argan tree occurrence, covering approximately 6.7 % of the territory, over 38,000 km2. This area is projected to increase significantly in the future, covering 9–22 % of the territory, or about 55,000 and 127,000 km2. With this study, we aim to contribute to the discussion on the benefits of assisted colonization of argan trees into Iberian Peninsula, as well as potential drawbacks such as the risk of this species becoming invasive.
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