Numerical simulations of the paleostress field during a period of tectonic fracture formation and rock failure criteria are used to quantitatively predict the development and occurrence of tectonic fractures induced by the formation of the SB18 fault zone in the Middle Ordovician Yijianfang Formation of the Shunnan area, Tarim Basin, China. The results of acoustic emission experiments, mechanical property measurements, and tectonic fracture occurrence observations obtained from core descriptions and fullbore formation microimager logs are combined with the Andersonian model of faulting and the finite element method, which is widely used for the numerical simulation of stress fields, to investigate the paleotectonic and in situ stress fields via numerical simulation. The quantitative prediction of the opening pressure and opening sequence of tectonic fractures is based on the occurrence of tectonic fracture, numerical simulation of in situ stresses, and coordinate system conversion. The results show that the width of the fracture zone induced by strike-slip faulting is ∼310 m. The degree of fracture development is significantly increased when the Young’s modulus, paleostress difference, and paleostress difference coefficient of the rock are elevated. The current horizontal principal stress is positively correlated with the distance from the fault, and the elevated areal density of the secondary faults causes a clockwise deflection of the horizontal stress direction. SSE-striking shear fractures with orientations ranging from 140° to 150° and two sets of tensional fractures with orientations ranging from −40° to −35° and 55° to 60° are preferentially opened in the water injection development stage of the reservoir. As the horizontal stress difference, horizontal stress difference coefficient, and angle between the maximum horizontal principal stress and a fracture decrease, the fracture opening pressure decreases. At the structural highs (burial depths <6225 m) and lows (burial depths >6225 m), the fracture burial depth is positively and negatively correlated with the opening pressure, respectively. Quantitative prediction of tectonic fracture developmental characteristics, opening pressure, and the opening sequence and investigation of the main factors that control their development can help to identify and support opportunities for hydrocarbon exploration and development of fractured carbonate reservoirs.
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