Cooler Conditions Research Articles

Thermodynamics of diamond formation from hydrocarbon mixtures in planets

Hydrocarbon mixtures are extremely abundant in the Universe, and diamond formation from them can play a crucial role in shaping the interior structure and evolution of planets. With first-principles accuracy, we first estimate the melting line of diamond, and then reveal the nature of chemical bonding in hydrocarbons at extreme conditions. We finally establish the pressure-temperature phase boundary where it is thermodynamically possible for diamond to form from hydrocarbon mixtures with different atomic fractions of carbon. Notably, here we show a depletion zone at pressures above 200 GPa and temperatures below 3000 K-3500 K where diamond formation is thermodynamically favorable regardless of the carbon atomic fraction, due to a phase separation mechanism. The cooler condition of the interior of Neptune compared to Uranus means that the former is much more likely to contain the depletion zone. Our findings can help explain the dichotomy of the two ice giants manifested by the low luminosity of Uranus, and lead to a better understanding of (exo-)planetary formation and evolution.

More warm‐adapted species in soil seed banks than in herb layer plant communities across Europe

Abstract Responses to climate change have often been found to lag behind the rate of warming that has occurred. In addition to dispersal limitation potentially restricting spread at leading range margins, the persistence of species in new and unsuitable conditions is thought to be responsible for apparent time‐lags. Soil seed banks can allow plant communities to temporarily buffer unsuitable environmental conditions, but their potential to slow responses to long‐term climate change is largely unknown. As local forest cover can also buffer the effects of a warming climate, it is important to understand how seed banks might interact with land cover to mediate community responses to climate change. We first related species‐level seed bank persistence and distribution‐derived climatic niches for 840 plant species. We then used a database of plant community data from grasslands, forests and intermediate successional habitats from across Europe to investigate relationships between seed banks and their corresponding herb layers in 2763 plots in the context of climate and land cover. We found that species from warmer climates and with broader distributions are more likely to have a higher seed bank persistence, resulting in seed banks that are composed of species with warmer and broader climatic distributions than their corresponding herb layers. This was consistent across our climatic extent, with larger differences (seed banks from even warmer climates relative to vegetation) found in grasslands. Synthesis. Seed banks have been shown to buffer plant communities through periods of environmental variability, and in a period of climate change might be expected to contain species reflecting past, cooler conditions. Here, we show that persistent seed banks often contain species with relatively warm climatic niches and those with wide climatic ranges. Although these patterns may not be primarily driven by species' climatic adaptations, the prominence of such species in seed banks might still facilitate climate‐driven community shifts. Additionally, seed banks may be related to ongoing trends regarding the spread of widespread generalist species into natural habitats, while cool‐associated species may be at risk from both short‐ and long‐term climatic variability and change.

Ageing across the great divide: tissue transformation, organismal growth and temperature shape telomere dynamics through the metamorphic transition.

Telomere attrition is considered a useful indicator of cellular and whole-organism ageing rate. While approximately 80% of animal species undergo metamorphosis that includes extensive tissue transformations (involving cell division, apoptosis, de-differentiation and de novo formation of stem cells), the effect on telomere dynamics is unknown. We measured telomeres in Xenopus laevis developing from larvae to adults under contrasting environmental temperatures. Telomere dynamics were linked to the degree of tissue transformation during development. Average telomere length in gut tissue increased dramatically during metamorphosis, when the gut shortens by 75% and epithelial cells de-differentiate into stem cells. In the liver (retained from larva) and hindlimb muscle (newly formed before metamorphosis), telomeres gradually shortened until adulthood, likely due to extensive cell division. Tail muscle telomere lengths were constant until tail resorption, and those in heart (retained from larva) showed no change over time. Telomere lengths negatively correlated with larval growth, but for a given growth rate, telomeres were shorter in cooler conditions, suggesting that growing in the cold is more costly. Telomere lengths were not related to post-metamorphic growth rate. Further research is now needed to understand whether telomere dynamics are a good indicator of ageing rate in species undergoing metamorphosis.

Deeper habitats and cooler temperaturesmoderate a climate-driven seagrass disease.

Eelgrass creates critical coastal habitats worldwide and fulfills essential ecosystem functions as a foundation seagrass. Climate warming and disease threaten eelgrass, causing mass mortalities and cascading ecological impacts. Subtidal meadows are deeper than intertidal and may also provide refuge from the temperature-sensitive seagrass wasting disease. From cross-boundary surveys of 5761 eelgrass leaves from Alaska to Washington and assisted with a machine-language algorithm, we measured outbreak conditions. Across summers 2017 and 2018, disease prevalence was 16% lower for subtidal than intertidal leaves; in both tidal zones, disease risk was lower for plants in cooler conditions. Even in subtidal meadows, which are more environmentally stable and sheltered from temperature and other stressors common for intertidal eelgrass, we observed high disease levels, with half of the sites exceeding 50% prevalence. Models predicted reduced disease prevalence and severity under cooler conditions, confirming a strong interaction between disease and temperature. At both tidal zones, prevalence was lower in more dense eelgrass meadows, suggesting disease is suppressed in healthy, higher density meadows. These results underscore the value of subtidal eelgrass and meadows in cooler locations as refugia, indicate that cooling can suppress disease, and have implications for eelgrass conservation and management under future climate change scenarios. This article is part of the theme issue 'Infectious disease ecology and evolution in a changing world'.

Long-term, large-scale experiment reveals the effects of seed limitation, climate, and anthropogenic disturbance on restoration of plant communities in a biodiversity hotspot

Ecological restoration is essential for maintaining biodiversity in the face of dynamic, global changes in climate, human land use, and disturbance regimes. Effective restoration requires understanding bottlenecks in plant community recovery that exist today, while recognizing that these bottlenecks may relate to complex histories of environmental change. Such understanding has been a challenge because few long-term, well-replicated experiments exist to decipher the demographic processes influencing recovery for numerous species against the backdrop of multiyear variation in climate and management. We address this challenge through a long-term and geographically expansive experiment in longleaf pine savannas, an imperiled ecosystem and biodiversity hotspot in the southeastern United States. Using 48 sites at three locations spanning 480 km, the 8-y experiment manipulated initial seed arrival for 24 herbaceous plant species and presence of competitors to evaluate the impacts of climate variability and management actions (e.g., prescribed burning) on plant establishment and persistence. Adding seeds increased plant establishment of many species. Cool and wet climatic conditions, low tree density, and reduced litter depth also promoted establishment. Once established, most species persisted for the duration of the 8-y experiment. Plant traits were most predictive when tightly coupled to the process of establishment. Our results illustrate how seed additions can restore plant diversity and how interannual climatic variation affects the dynamics of plant communities across a large region. The significant effects of temperature and precipitation inform how future climate may affect restoration and conservation via large-scale changes in the fundamental processes of establishment and persistence.

Agro-climatic Characterization of Potato Production Areas in Rwanda: Meteorological Data Analysis and Farmer Perceptions

From years ago, climate change effects are happening in different areas of the world, including Rwanda. Potato as one of main commodities grown mainly in the cooler and wetter highlands of Rwanda, its production could be facing the global warming. The purpose of this study is to carry out weather (temperature and rainfall) change dynamics in the potato growing zones of Rwanda over the last thirty years. Weather daily data from 1987 to 2016 were collected from three weather stations, at Kawangire for low elevation, at Gikongoro mid elevation, and at Kora high elevation, respectively. Farmers were interviewed to know their perceptions on weather conditions during past thirty years. Weather data were analyzed by ombrothermic diagram, Nickolson Index and graphing with generated trend equation methods. Interview data were analyzed with Chi-square test at P =.05. Results have shown as dry June, July and August months in low elevation; June, July and August in medium elevation and June and July in high elevation depending on decade. Rainfall was increasing in low and medium elevations, while it was decreasing in high elevation. Temperature was decreasing in low elevation area and it was increasing in medium and high elevation areas. All interviewed farmers confirmed long term-shift in temperature and precipitations. A total of 95%, 54% and 43% of farmers from respectively low, medium and high elevations reported that weather was becoming wetter during last years. As conclusion, potato growing cooler and wetter conditions of high elevation are shifting to low elevation in Rwanda. For climate change mitigation, Rwanda needs to promote potato in its Eastern part, the low elevation region, in order to increase the crop production in the future.

New indicators of ecological resilience and invasion resistance to support prioritization and management in the sagebrush biome, United States

Ecosystem transformations to altered or novel ecological states are accelerating across the globe. Indicators of ecological resilience to disturbance and resistance to invasion can aid in assessing risks and prioritizing areas for conservation and restoration. The sagebrush biome encompasses parts of 11 western states and is experiencing rapid transformations due to human population growth, invasive species, altered disturbance regimes, and climate change. We built on prior use of static soil moisture and temperature regimes to develop new, ecologically relevant and climate responsive indicators of both resilience and resistance. Our new indicators were based on climate and soil water availability variables derived from process-based ecohydrological models that allow predictions of future conditions. We asked: (1) Which variables best indicate resilience and resistance? (2) What are the relationships among the indicator variables and resilience and resistance categories? (3) How do patterns of resilience and resistance vary across the area? We assembled a large database (n = 24,045) of vegetation sample plots from regional monitoring programs and derived multiple climate and soil water availability variables for each plot from ecohydrological simulations. We used USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service National Soils Survey Information, Ecological Site Descriptions, and expert knowledge to develop and assign ecological types and resilience and resistance categories to each plot. We used random forest models to derive a set of 19 climate and water availability variables that best predicted resilience and resistance categories. Our models had relatively high multiclass accuracy (80% for resilience; 75% for resistance). Top indicator variables for both resilience and resistance included mean temperature, coldest month temperature, climatic water deficit, and summer and driest month precipitation. Variable relationships and patterns differed among ecoregions but reflected environmental gradients; low resilience and resistance were indicated by warm and dry conditions with high climatic water deficits, and moderately high to high resilience and resistance were characterized by cooler and moister conditions with low climatic water deficits. The new, ecologically-relevant indicators provide information on the vulnerability of resources and likely success of management actions, and can be used to develop new approaches and tools for prioritizing areas for conservation and restoration actions.

Yakın Beta Ti Alaşımı, Ti-5553'ün Yüksek Basınçlı Soğutma ve Yağlama Altında İşlenmesinde Kalıntı Gerilme Analizi

Ti-5553 (Ti–5Al–5Mo–5V–3Cr) one of the titanium alloys, is a recently developed near beta Titanium alloy, which is frequently used in the aerospace industry such as landing gear. When machining these superalloys, surface integrity can be affected by cutting and cooling conditions. An experimental study was conducted on Ti-5553, also known as beta-like titanium alloy, to understand the role of High Pressure Cooling and Lubrication conditions on surface integrity. In this study, high pressure coolant levels and other machining parameters (cutting speed, feed rate) were chosen as variable factors. These various levels were selected in different values and used in the tests to emphasize the relations of the accepted shear conditions from the effective data in the formation of residual stresses, which is also a parameter of the surface integrity. The results demonstrate the need to prepare coolant pressure levels to improve work surface integrity in such a material. In order to reveal the consistency of the coolant pressure values with other determined cutting parameters and the accuracy of choice, a relationship optimization has been tried to be explained.

Effect of Provenance and Environmental Factors on Tree Growth and Tree Water Status of Norway Spruce

Changes in temperature regime, and a higher frequency of extreme weather conditions due to global warming are considered great risks for forest stands worldwide because of their negative impact on tree growth and vitality. We examined tree growth and water balance of two provenances of Norway spruce growing in Arboretum Borová hora (350 m a.s.l., Zvolen, central Slovakia) that originated from climatologically cooler conditions. The research was performed during three meteorologically different years from 2017 to 2019. We evaluated the impact of climatic and soil factors on intra-species variability in radial stem growth and tree water status that were characterised by seasonal radial increment, stem water deficit and maximum daily shrinkage derived from the records of stem circumference changes obtained from band dendrometers installed on five mature trees of each provenance. The impact of environmental factors on the characteristics was evaluated using the univariate factor analysis and four machine learning models (random forest, support vector machine, gradient boosting machine and neural network). The responses to climatic conditions differed between the provenances. Seasonal radial increments of the provenance from cooler conditions were greater than those of the provenance originating from cooler and wetter conditions due to the long-term shortage of water the latter provenance had to cope with in the current environment, while the provenance from the cooler region was more sensitive to short-term changes in environmental conditions.

Effect of Post-Printing Cooling Conditions on the Properties of ULTEM Printed Parts

This paper aimed to estimate the effect of post-printing cooling conditions on the tensile and thermophysical properties of ULTEM® 9085 printed parts processed by fused deposition modeling (FDM). Three different cooling conditions were applied after printing Ultem samples: from 180 °C to room temperature (RT) for 4 h in the printer (P), rapid removal from the printer and cooling from 200 °C to RT for 4 h in the oven (O), and cooling at RT (R). Tensile tests and dynamic mechanical thermal analysis (DMTA) were carried out on samples printed in three orthogonal planes to investigate the effect of the post-printing cooling conditions on their mechanical and thermophysical properties. Optical microscopy was employed to relate the corresponding macrostructure to the mechanical performance of the material. The results obtained showed almost no difference between samples cooled either in the printer or oven and a notable difference for samples cooled at room temperature. Moreover, the lowest mechanical performance and sensitivity to the thermal cooling conditions were defined for the Z printing direction due to anisotropic nature of FDM and debonding among layers.

Effects of Different Cooling Conditions on Microstructure and Precipitation Behavior of Fine-Grained Al - Zn - Mg - Cu Alloy Friction Stir Welding Joint

Effects of Different Cooling Conditions on Microstructure and Precipitation Behavior of Fine-Grained Al - Zn - Mg - Cu Alloy Friction Stir Welding Joint

Influence of Sowing Date of Winter Cereals on the Efficacy of Cinmethylin on Alopecurus myosuroides (Huds.)

Cinmethylin, a pre-emergent applied active ingredient, inhibits the fatty acid thioesterase and offers a new option in the chemical control of Alopecurus myosuroides, one of the most problematic weeds in arable farming in Europe. It was assumed that with the delayed sowing of winter wheat and winter barley due to more humid and cooler conditions, the efficacy of cinmethylin against A. myosuroides increases. Four field trials were conducted in Southwestern Germany from 2019 to 2022. From mid-September until early November, winter wheat and winter barley were sown in at four dates each year, with intervals of fourteen days. After each sowing, 500 and 250 g cinmethylin ha−1 were applied subsequently to winter wheat and winter barley, respectively. Flufenacet (240 g ha−1) served as a comparison in both crops. A herbicide efficacy of over 90% was achieved for winter wheat sown in mid-October, while it was only 70% for winter wheat sown in mid-September. Similar results were observed for winter barley. On average, cinmethylin achieved a significantly higher efficacy in winter wheat than flufenacet. The presented approach with cinmethylin and delayed sowing date provides a basis for the comprehensive control of A. myosuroides. However, further measures of integrated weed management (crop rotation, situational ploughing, and stale seedbed) need to be applied for 100% control.

Effects of the height of supply outlet of façade-mounted hybrid downdraft evaporative cooler on the indoor air quality of an office building

The hybrid downdraft evaporative cooler (HDEC) conditions a building by cooling with humidification and hence, inappropriate location of its supply outlet on a building facade has a great impact on the indoor air quality (IAQ) which affect the health, concentration, and productivity of the occupants. This paper investigates the effect of the height of the HDEC supply outlet on the IAQ of an office building equipped with the HDEC system in Bayero University Kano. The building model was created using DesignBuilder software while DesignBuilder CFD was employed for the parametric simulation using air change effectiveness (ACE) as the performance criterion. The height of the HDEC supply outlet was varyfrom 0.1m to 2.4m step 0.1m above the floor level. The results show that higher values of ACE in the occupants’ breathing zone were obtained at lower heights of the HDEC supply outlets with the best ACE of 1.1588 obtained at 0.3m. This information could help engineers to optimally position the HDEC supply outlet on the façade of an office building or any other building with similar characteristics.

Oceanic anoxic event 2 in Sergipe-Alagoas Basin, Brazil: New paleoecological insights from calcareous nannofossils assemblages

A boring core (UFRJ-2-LRJ-01-SE) from the Sergipe-Alagoas Basin, Brazil, is one of the best and most expanded sections of the late Albian–early Turonian age within South America and includes one of the few records of Oceanic Anoxic Event 2 (OAE 2) in the South Atlantic Ocean. The aim of this study is to revise the calcareous nannofossil biostratigraphy and reconstruct paleoclimatic-paleoceanographic patterns based on the quantitative analysis of nannofossil assemblages performed on 78 samples throughout the core UFRJ-2-LRJ-01-SE. The biostratigraphic revision corroborates the previously defined late Albian–early Turonian age for the studied section, however, a hiatus (∼ 4.7 Ma) has been identified, omitting the latest Albian–early Cenomanian time interval including OAE 1d. In addition, we confirm the occurrence of the OAE 2 interval within the studied section. Also, the revised nannofossil biostratigraphy integrated with chemostratigraphy pointed out the presence of the Middle Cenomanian Event (MCE), previously identified as the Lower Cenomanian Anoxic Event (LCAE). The relative abundances of selected calcareous nannofossil taxa suggest a prevalence of warmer surface waters during the late Albian and cooler conditions during the middle Cenomanian–early Turonian. The integration of diversity, species richness, Shannon diversity, equitability, nutrients (NI) and temperature (TI) indices separated four intervals recording different paleoecological conditions. The comparison with western Tethys data shows similarity between the temperature and fertility trends recognized in the studied section, suggesting global climate changes and similar fluctuations in ocean fertility during the late Albian–early Turonian.

Hydroclimate variability in the Caribbean during North Atlantic Heinrich cooling events (H8 and H9)

We present a speleothem record from western Cuba, spanning the period 98.7–84.9 ka BP. Our record shows two distinctive periods of high δ18O corresponding to dry and/or cold periods during 85–87.6 and 90.2–93.1 ka BP, synchronous with Heinrich events 8 and 9 (H8 and H9). Hence, we provide the first proxy evidence of the local Caribbean climate response to H8 and H9. Interestingly, H8 is more pronounced compared to H9, which may be a local response to lower temperatures in the North Atlantic resulting in a weak AMOC and reduced deep water formation, therefore a stronger south shift of the ITCZ. Our data complement existing speleothem records from western Cuba which, collectively, provide a nearly continuous paleoclimate time-series spanning the last 100 ka BP, indicating a consistent response to millennial-scale events as dry and/or cooler conditions. The comparison with regional paleoclimate records reveals an anti-phased relationship with South America, caused by the southern movements of the ITCZ during millennial-scale events which lead to dry conditions in the Caribbean and a stronger South American Monsoon System.

Latent functional diversity may accelerate microbial community responses to temperature fluctuations.

How complex microbial communities respond to climatic fluctuations remains an open question. Due to their relatively short generation times and high functional diversity, microbial populations harbor great potential to respond as a community through a combination of strain-level phenotypic plasticity, adaptation, and species sorting. However, the relative importance of these mechanisms remains unclear. We conducted a laboratory experiment to investigate the degree to which bacterial communities can respond to changes in environmental temperature through a combination of phenotypic plasticity and species sorting alone. We grew replicate soil communities from a single location at six temperatures between 4°C and 50°C. We found that phylogenetically and functionally distinct communities emerge at each of these temperatures, with K-strategist taxa favored under cooler conditions and r-strategist taxa under warmer conditions. We show that this dynamic emergence of distinct communities across a wide range of temperatures (in essence, community-level adaptation) is driven by the resuscitation of latent functional diversity: the parent community harbors multiple strains pre-adapted to different temperatures that are able to 'switch on' at their preferred temperature without immigration or adaptation. Our findings suggest that microbial community function in nature is likely to respond rapidly to climatic temperature fluctuations through shifts in species composition by resuscitation of latent functional diversity.

A Review of Flow and Heat Transfer Characteristics of Supercritical Carbon Dioxide under Cooling Conditions in Energy and Power Systems

Supercritical carbon dioxide (SCO2) is widely used in many fields of energy and power engineering, such as nuclear reactors, solar thermal power generation systems, and refrigeration systems. In practical applications, SCO2 undergoes a cooling process significantly when it is cooled near the pseudo–critical point. Because of the drastic variations in thermo–physical properties, the heat transfer characteristics fluctuate, affecting the heat exchange and overall cycle performance. This paper summarizes extensive experiments and numerical simulations on the cooling process of SCO2 in various application scenarios. The effects of various working conditions, such as mass flow, working pressure, pipe diameter, flow direction, and channel shapes, are reviewed. The applicability and computational results using different numerical methods under different working conditions are also summarized. Furthermore, empirical correlations obtained in experiments at different conditions are included. The present review can provide a helpful guideline for the design of effective cooling systems or condensers so that the accuracy of the design and efficiency of the system can be improved.

Effect of Cooling and Annealing Conditions on the Microstructure, Mechanical and Superelastic Behavior of a Rotary Forged Ti-18Zr-15Nb (at. %) Bar Stock for Spinal Implants.

In this work, the microstructure, phase state, texture, superelastic and mechanical properties of a Ti-18Zr-15Nb (at. %) shape memory alloy subjected to a combined thermomechanical treatment, including hot rotary forging with either air cooling or water quenching and post-deformation annealing are studied. It was revealed that the main structural component of the deformed and annealed alloy is BCC β-phase. With an increase in the forging temperature from 600 to 700 °C, the average grain size increases from 5.4 to 17.8 µm for the air-cooled specimens and from 3.4 to 14.7 µm for the water-quenched specimens. Annealing at 525 °C after forging at 700 °C with water quenching leads to the formation of a mixed statically and dynamically polygonized substructure of β-phase. In this state, the alloy demonstrates the best combination of functional properties in this study: a Young's modulus of ~33 GPa, an ultimate tensile strength of ~600 MPa and a superelastic recovery strain of ~3.4%.

Species specific vulnerability to increased drought in temperate and Mediterranean floodplain forests

Floodplain forests are sensitive to climate warming and increased drought, as showed by recent oak (Quercus robur) dieback and mortality episodes. However, a comprehensive comparison of coexisting tree species under different climate settings or biomes are lacking. Herein, we compared growth rates, growth responses to climate and drought severity, and modeled climate mediated growth of oak and three coexisting tree species (ash, Fraxinus angustifolia; alder, Alnus glutinosa; elm, Ulmus minor). Two floodplain forests subjected to cooler (temperate climate, Ticino) and warmer (Mediterranean climate, Bosco Pantano) conditions in northern and southern Italy, respectively, were analyzed. Ash seemed to be the most sensitive to drought, particularly at the Mediterranean site where oak and elm growth were also negatively affected by water shortages. Alder appeared to be the least sensitive species in terms of growth variability to drought under both temperate and Mediterranean climate conditions. Furthermore, the growth model revealed the influence of soil moisture in spring and summer on the constrained growth of ash and oak and illustrated how oak growth could be severely reduced during drastic hotter droughts. Alder seemed to be the most drought-resistant species under both environmental conditions. These results could represent the first attempts in documenting the ecological consequences of drought in terms of projected climate trends in less investigated Mediterranean floodplain forests. Furthermore, these results highlight how climate and tree-ring data combined with growth models could be useful tools to detect early warning signals of growth decline and impending dieback in floodplain forests in response to dry spells.

A MODERN MULTICENTENNIAL RECORD OF RADIOCARBON VARIABILITY FROM AN EXACTLY DATED BIVALVE CHRONOLOGY AT THE TREE NOB SITE (ALASKA COASTAL CURRENT)

ABSTRACTQuantifying the marine radiocarbon reservoir effect, offsets (ΔR), and ΔR variability over time is critical to improving dating estimates of marine samples while also providing a proxy of water mass dynamics. In the northeastern Pacific, where no high-resolution time series of ΔR has yet been established, we sampled radiocarbon (14C) from exactly dated growth increments in a multicentennial chronology of the long-lived bivalve, Pacific geoduck (Paneopea generosa) at the Tree Nob site, coastal British Columbia, Canada. Samples were taken at approximately decadal time intervals from 1725 CE to 1920 CE and indicate average ΔR values of 256 ± 22 years (1σ) consistent with existing discrete estimates. Temporal variability in ΔR is small relative to analogous Atlantic records except for an unusually old-water event, 1802–1812. The correlation between ΔR and sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructed from geoduck increment width is weakly significant (r2= .29, p = .03), indicating warm water is generally old, when the 1802–1812 interval is excluded. This interval contains the oldest (–2.1σ) anomaly, and that is coincident with the coldest (–2.7σ) anomalies of the temperature reconstruction. An additional 3214C values spanning 1952–1980 were detrended using a northeastern Pacific bomb pulse curve. Significant positive correlations were identified between the detrended14C data and annual El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and summer SST such that cooler conditions are associated with older water. Thus,14C is generally relatively stable with weak, potentially inconsistent associations to climate variables, but capable of infrequent excursions as illustrated by the unusually cold, old-water 1802–1812 interval.