Convertible Bonds Research Articles

The impact of a convertible bond on the leverage of a firm

AbstractThe important issue of the impact of convertible bonds on the capital structure of firms has not attracted much attention. The authors use a binomial tree approach to price a convertible bond with convertibility throughout its life to calculate its debt and equity contribution to the capital structure. The authors will show that treatment of the convertible bonds by simply assigning its straight bond value portion to the debt, and the equity option portion to the owner's equity is not consistent with the foundations of finance theory and drastically overstates the debt component of these bonds and their contribution to the firm's leverage.

The determinants of banks' AT1 CoCo spreads

AbstractWe conduct a comprehensive pricing study of additional tier 1 ​(AT1) contingent convertible (CoCo) bonds issued by Eurozone banks. By accounting for an extensive set of pricing determinants related to the regulatory framework, the security design and key market variables, we show that the regulatory concept of the maximum distributable amount (MDA) introduced in 2016 has a significant and economically meaningful impact on CoCo spreads. Furthermore, we examine whether the market stress induced by the COVID‐19 pandemic influences the determinants of CoCo spreads. Our results show that the pricing factors remain stable throughout tranquil and volatile periods.

Too big to fail and optimal regulation

This paper analyzes the optimal regulation for “Too Big to Fail” (TBTF) in a simple model. As the government cannot credibly commit to no bail-out during crises, banks have an incentive to become excessively large ex-ante. In this case, no single policy can fully eliminate the inefficiencies from TBTF. The optimal regulation for the first-best allocation features a capital requirement and an issuance of Contingent Convertible Bonds (CoCos) where the former addresses the moral hazard issue from government bailouts and the latter improves risk-sharing. Moreover, a combination of the capital requirement and size regulation can implement a second-best allocation where the government has to bail out the banking sector but the social cost of bail-out is internalized by the banks. In this case, the capital requirement forces banks to internalize the bailout cost while the size regulation directly discourages banks to become large.

Designing bankers' pay: Using contingent capital to reduce risk-shifting incentives

Including contingent convertible bonds (coco) in the capital structure of a bank affects the sensitivity to risk of its equity-based compensation. Such risk-shifting incentives can be reduced if the coco bonds are well-designed. Similarly, we show that compensating executives instead with well-designed coco bonds can also reduce risk-shifting incentives. In practice, however, most coco bonds have characteristics that result in both stock and coco compensation having large sensitivities to changes in asset risk -- equity-based compensation encourages executives to increase risk, coco compensation to reduce risk. We show that a pay package combining both stock and coco can practically eliminate risk-shifting incentives and that it can be implemented with a bank's preexisting coco bonds.

How do investors perceive convertible bond issuing decisions?

We survey institutional investors on the convertible bond issuance decision. Investors believe that convertibles are preferred over equity in order to avoid equity dilution. We also find support for traditional convertible bond issuing theories, such as the backdoor equity, sequential financing, risk shifting, and risk disagreement models. Investors attribute little importance to factors that make convertible bonds more attractive for hedge funds such as volatility and dividend payments on the underlying stocks. This latter result is likely related to the smaller role that convertible arbitrage activity started to play in this market.

The price determinants of contingent convertible bonds

The relationships between contingent convertible (CoCo) bonds and their underlying equities, credit default swap spreads (CDS), interest rates, implied volatilities and foreign exchange rates are studied. Starting with the dynamic correlation of the DCC-GARCH method, it is found that CoCo bonds are most highly correlated to CDS. By constructing the minimum spanning tree of the resulting correlations, the primary link to CDS is confirmed. Implied volatility is found to be a secondary to tertiary link, alternating in importance with equities. Interest rates and FX have little impact.

Financial Intermediaries and Agency Problems With and Without Vertical Incentives

I study agency problems between brokers and investors in the retail bond market. The presence of suitability or fiduciary regulations, which govern transactions in this setting, can lead to tensions for brokers between maximizing their own profit and acting in the best interests of their customers. This paper measures the degree to which these conflicting incentives influence brokers by examining the U.S. reverse convertible bond market. While brokers do consider the profits of investors when making decisions, I estimate that their own profits are roughly three times more important, suggesting the existence of severe agency problems that reduce consumer welfare.

Pricing Convertible Bond in Uncertain Financial Market

This paper is devoted to evaluating the convertible bonds within the framework of uncertainty theory. Under the assumption that the underlying stock price follows an uncertain differential equation driven by Liu process, the price formulas of convertible bonds and the callable convertible bonds are derived by using the method of uncertain calculus. Finally, two numerical examples are discussed.

Motives and market reactions to convertible bonds and bonds with warrants issuance in an emerging market

AbstractWe examine why Korean firms issue hybrid securities, including convertible bonds and bonds with warrants. In particular, we investigate whether there exist any differences between companies issuing convertible bonds and those issuing bonds with warrants. Our findings show that younger firms with more growth opportunities, larger size, high leverage, low profitability, low credit rating, and low ownership concentrations are likely to issue more hybrid securities rather than straight debt or equity. Also, we find that firms with more growth opportunities, larger size, low profitability, and higher ownership concentrations prefer to issue convertible bonds rather than bonds with warrants. Although we find that the announcement effects of both convertible bonds and bonds with warrants are significantly positive, the cumulative abnormal returns are higher for convertible bonds than for bonds with warrants.

Optimal stopping games in models with various information flows

We study zero-sum optimal stopping games associated with perpetual convertible bonds in an extension of the Black-Merton-Scholes model with random dividends under various information flows. In this type of contracts, the writers have the right to withdraw the bonds, before the holders convert them into assets. We derive closed-form expressions for the associated value function and optimal exercise boundaries in the model with an accessible dividend rate policy which is described by a continuous-time Markov chain with two states. We further consider the optimal stopping game in the model with inaccessible dividend rate policy and prove that the optimal exercise times are the first times at which the asset price process hits monotone boundaries depending on the running state of the filtering dividend rate estimate. We finally present the value of the optimal stopping game for the model in which the dividend rate policy is accessible to the writers but remains inaccessible to the holders of the bonds.

How Do Options Add Value? Evidence from the Convertible Bond Market

This paper provides evidence that the availability of individual stock options adds value to security issuers. We focus on convertible bond issues because pricing convertible bonds requires essentially the same set of information necessary to price options. By exploiting the SEC’s minimum stock price requirement for option listing to employ a regression discontinuity design, we find that the availability of stock options significantly affects the pricing of convertible bonds. In line with options providing information, the effect is stronger when the overall information environment is poor. Listed options help issuers attract more convertible bond buyers and reduce the cost of financing. Overall, our results highlight the value relevance of the options market.

Research on the Pricing of Convertible bonds in China---Migration risk based on credit rating

At present, further research and exploration on credit risks are being carried out in the global field, and increasingly profound modern credit risks are exposed to the bond market. This requires that we cannot ignore the impact of credit rating migration risk on bond pricing, so as to adapt to the sustainable and healthy development of the bond market under the new normal of China's economy. The innovation point of this paper is to try to analyze the pricing of Convertible bonds in China from the perspective of credit rating migration risk. Tsiveriotis and Fernandes(1998) model is selected, and the credit risk in the model is assumed to be caused by the credit rating migration risk, and the credit spread is used to measure the credit rating migration risk. The research conclusion of this paper is as follows: First, it is valid to consider the risk of credit rating migration in the TF(1998) model. The market price of convertible bonds is on average 1.22% higher than the theoretical value of the model. In general, the theoretical value obtained from the model has little deviation from the market price, and has a good fitting degree. Second, from the Angle of credit rating, the selection of 32 samples of convertible bonds only empirical research shows that the credit rating of AA - convertible bonds average deviation rate is negative, suggest that the credit rating of AA - the phenomenon of convertible bonds value is underestimated, and AAA credit rating to AA, AA +, the average deviation rate of convertible bonds is positive, that credit rating AA (containing AA) more convertible bond value is overrated phenomenon, and the higher the credit rating of the average deviation rate of convertible bond, the greater the overvalued levels. It has certain guiding significance for participants in the convertible bond market.

Risk-taking and Uncertainty: Do Contingent Convertible (CoCo) Bonds Increase the Risk Appetite of Banks?

We assess the impact of contingent convertible (CoCo) bonds and the wealth transfers they imply conditional on conversion on the risk-taking behaviour of the issuing bank. We also test for regulatory arbitrage: do banks try to maintain risk-taking incentives by issuing CoCo bonds, when regulators reduce them through higher capitalisation ratios? While we test for, and reject sample selection bias, we show that CoCo bonds issuance has a strong positive effect on risk-taking behaviour, and so do conversion parameters that reduce dilution of existing shareholders upon conversion. Higher economic volatility amplifies the impact of CoCo bonds on risk-taking.

Application of Nonarbitrage Pricing Model and Finite Element Numerical Solution in the Value of Convertible Bonds in the Stock Market

Because of its creditor’s rights, equity, and options, convertible bonds have been developed rapidly since its emergence and have become one of the main tools in the financial market. One of the core problems of convertible bonds is pricing. The research on the pricing model of convertible bonds in China is relatively late. Most of them use foreign technologies, but they are quite different from the actual situation in China, and most of the models are characterized by a single factor. Therefore, this paper puts forward the nonarbitrage pricing model in the stock market and the application of the finite element numerical solution in the value of convertible bonds. The biggest innovation of this paper is to design a combined pricing model by using the model of nonarbitrage pricing theory and finite element numerical solution. The model combines the advantages of the nonarbitrage pricing theory and finite element numerical solution, and through the design of this paper, the model effectively improves the calculation accuracy and is suitable for most of the current market environment. While improving the comprehensive performance of the pricing model, it also simplifies the calculation methods and steps. In order to further verify the actual effect of the pricing model in this paper, the traditional binary tree model is taken as the experimental contrast object, including the comparative analysis of the market price and the theoretical price of the convertible bond, the comparative experiment of the prediction effect between the model and the binary tree model, and the analysis of the relative price error of the convertible bond. The results show that the comprehensive performance of the pricing model in this paper is significantly better than the traditional binary tree model. This study has achieved ideal results and can be widely recommended.

АРБИТРАЖНЫЕ ВОЗМОЖНОСТИ С ИСПОЛЬЗОВАНИЕМ ГИБРИДНЫХ ФИНАНСОВЫХ ИНСТРУМЕНТОВ

The article discusses the features of the “convertible arbitrage” strategy using a hybrid financial instrumentconvertible bonds. The characteristics of convertible bonds as a financial market instrument are given. The article analyzes the conduct of convertible arbitrage in terms of the motives and factors that affect the implementation of the strategy; the basic possible scenarios are given.

Negative conversion premium

We document frequent occurrences of negative conversion premium (NCP) events in the Chinese convertible bond market, when the bond is convertible and the underlying stock can be freely sold. This implies that when an NCP event occurs, existing stock holders can earn a riskless profit through a long-short strategy which sells the underlying stock and buys the convertible bond at the same time, then converts the bond into stocks. Facing short sale constraints, traders not holding any position in the underlying stock can still profit from an overnight trading strategy which buys the convertible bond at the NCP event day t, then sells the converted stock on day t + 1. We also find that the next-day opening prices following NCP events are significantly lower, which is evidence for the stock selling from the overnight trading strategy. Overall, our findings show that investors in China are aware of the NCP events and they earn abnormal returns through active trading. However, it remains as a puzzle why existing stock holders such as institutional investors do not trade away the negative conversion premium through the riskless long-short strategy.

On Option Greeks and Corporate Finance

This paper has proposed new option Greeks and new upper and lower bounds for European and American options. It shows that because of the put-call parity, the Greeks of put and call options are interconnected and should be shown simultaneously. In terms of the theory of the firm, it is found that both the Black-Scholes-Merton and the binomial option pricing models implicitly assume that maximizing the market value of the firm is not equivalent to maximizing the equityholders’ wealth. The binomial option pricing model implicitly assumes that further increasing (decreasing) the promised payment to debtholders affects neither the speed of decreasing (increasing) in the equity nor the speed of increasing (decreasing) in the insurance for the promised payment. The Black-Scholes-Merton option pricing model implicitly assumes that further increasing (decreasing) in the promised payment to debtholders will: (1) decrease (increase) the speed of decreasing (increasing) in the equity though bounded by upper and lower bounds, and (2) increase (decrease) the speed of increasing (decreasing) in the insurance though bounded by upper and lower bounds. The paper also extends the put-call parity to include senior debt and convertible bond. It specifies the lower bound for risky debt and the conditions under which American put option will not be early exercised.

Increasing profitability through contingent convertible capital: Empirical evidence from European banks

This study investigates the effects of using additional tier 1 (AT1) capital instruments on bank profitability. It is motivated by the fact that the use of contingent convertible bonds (CoCo bonds) instead of equity offers a tax shield and incentives for efficient risk taking. I empirically analyze a panel dataset of 231 banks from EEA countries as well as Switzerland from 2014 to 2018. My analysis shows that the potential tax shield partly determines the use of CoCo bonds, and that the use of CoCo bonds instead of equity as AT1 capital significantly increases bank profitability.

전환사채의 투자효과에 관한 연구

본 연구는 투자자 입장에서 전환사채(CB)의 투자효과가 어느 정도 인지를 규명하고 효율적인 투자방안을 투자자 들에게 제시하는 것이 연구목적이다. 연구방법은 2015년부터 2020년 6월까지 발행한 CB에 대한 표면이자율, 만기이자 율, 채권만기일, 전환가격, 전환일 등을 조사한 후, 전환일 이후 일별주가변동과 연결하여 CB에 대한 투자효율성 및 주 식전환효과가 어느 정도인지를 파악하였다. 연구 결과, 전환가격초과일수비율이 전환 가능한 날짜의 1/4 정도에 불과하 여 CB의 투자효율성은 낮은 것으로 분석되었다. 전환일수익률은 평균 –6.3%, 만기일수익률은 평균 -5.2%여서 평균적 으로 마이너스 수익률을 보여 투자자 기대와 다르게 투자효과가 산출되었다. 전환일수익률이 마이너스인 종목수가 플러 스인 종목수 보다 2.4배, 만기일수익률이 마이너스인 종목수가 플러스인 종목수 보다 3.7배 많아서 CB의 주식전환 기대 수익률은 낮은 것으로 분석되었다.

Announcement Effects of Convertible and Warrant Bond Issues with Embedded Refixing Option: Evidence from Korea

This study examines the announcement effects of convertible and warrant bond issues with embedded refixing option in Korea from January 2001 to December 2018. Refixing option denotes an adjustment right of the conversion price embedded in equity-linked debt when the underlying stock price falls under conversion price. I find statistically significant declines of 2.6 to 2.7 percentage points in cumulative abnormal returns for the inclusion of a refixing clause and especially further declines of 6.2 to 6.3 percentage points during the period from 2016 to 2018. This result implies that the market’s concerns about the dilution of existing shareholder value due to the exercise of the refixing rights are reflected in the market response. I further find that the degree of negative market response varies according to the changes in macroeconomic conditions and the stock exchange on which the issuing firms are listed. The findings are robust after controlling for the effect of firm-, issue-, and market-specific characteristics.