Land Conversion Research Articles

Access denied: Land alienation and pastoral conflicts

Conflicts involving pastoralists have been on the rise in the past two decades in West, Central and East Africa. This article argues that land alienation is a major source of this type of violence. We employ a narrow identification strategy of relevant pastoral conflicts based on the Armed Conflict Location Event Dataset and create a unique indicator of land alienation comprised of three types of land use changes (conversion of land into conservation areas, crop farms, and industrial mining projects). Relying on a disaggregated quantitative comparative design of 50 km-by-50 km cells covering the Sahelian region from 2002 to 2019, we find that land alienation is an underlying cause of pastoral conflicts. Moreover, we show that the impact of land alienation on pastoralist violence spreads over long distances and is influenced by state presence and climatic conditions. Our analysis further reveals an overlap between pastoralist violence and armed conflict. Bridging a gap between macro- and micro-level studies, we contribute to shed more light on the determinants of pastoral conflicts, a type of violence that has received scant attention in the geospatial quantitative literature.

Markov Chain Analysis of Land-use Changes in India and Maharashtra

Dynamics of Agriculture resembles the history of agriculture in India which examines the emphasizing significance to the nation's legacy, culture and civilization. India's agriculture changed after independence from a food-scarce nation to one that exports food this comes true primarily due to the result of scientific advancements. The present study is based on secondary data with the use of Markov Chain analysis to ascertain land-use changes in India and Maharashtra state. Changes in land use brought on by agriculture, urbanization and environmental factors significantly impact resource management and sustainability. We build a Markov Chain model with secondary land utilization data from government reports to measure the transition probabilities between various land use categories over time. The Markov chain model is easy to understand and communicate. It effectively captures transitions between land-use changes over time. The model works with limited data as compared to other complex models, making it accessible for studies. The results of the study emphasize dynamic interactions between various land-use patterns in India and Maharashtra. There we have concluded a stable land-use changing pattern. A trend towards intensive cropping has been observed during this study. This study reveals important trends in land conversion, most notably the growth of urban areas at the expense of forested and agricultural areas. The predictive abilities of model highlight the significance of well-informed policy-making for sustainable land management by offering insights into potential future land use scenarios.

Classification and Evaluation of Marginal Land for Potential Cultivation in Northwest China Based on Contiguity and Restrictive Factors

Water, land, and other environmental conditions restrict marginal land (ML) conversion into newly cultivated land. Accurately evaluating ML’s development and utilization potential (DUP) can provide critical support for increasing new cultivated land and ensuring food security. This study focuses on Northwest China, using spatial identification of different types of ML based on remote sensing images, and constructs a county-level DUP evaluation model through contiguous characteristics and restrictive factors to determine new cultivated-land potential, water demand, and liftable grain production. The results show that the DUP of ML in Northwest China is 12.59 million ha, with low-efficiency cultivated land (LCL) and two types of restoration land (TTRL) accounting for 3.29% and 5.95%, and other marginal land (OML) making up 90.76%. The total water demand for ML development and utilization is 69.87 billion cubic meters, which can increase grain production by 62.31 million tons. The coordinated development of water, land, and food promotes an increase in grain production, with water resources being the main restrictive factor. This model effectively evaluates DUP and provides a scientific basis for promoting the rational use of water and land resources. Further research should set up more detailed water resource utilization strategies and scenarios as well as find more development and utilization techniques.

Movement and Growth of Translocated Coastrange Sculpin and Prickly Sculpin in Two Urban Lake Washington Tributaries, Washington

Abstract Urbanization and other forms of land conversion have led to dramatic changes in freshwater ecosystems. We assessed the movement and growth of Coastrange Sculpin Cottus aleuticus and Prickly Sculpin C. asper, two species that are considered migratory based on their potamodromous and amphidromous life history strategies. We determined critical aspects of their ecology in two urban streams where they are rare or absent. Both species were collected near the stream mouth or in Lake Washington, implanted with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags, and translocated to an upper stream reach where their downstream movements and growth were monitored. Detections at stationary antennas indicated most downstream movements occurred from January to April, as has been observed in other Pacific Northwest systems. About 80% of the translocated sculpins remained in the study reach for at least 2 months before moving downstream and 10% remained more than a year. Smaller Prickly Sculpin generally remained in the study reach longer than larger Prickly Sculpin; however, no size effect was observed for Coastrange Sculpin. Most downstream movements occurred during low and moderate streamflow levels during each season for both streams; however, downstream movements occurred at relatively higher flows compared to the cumulative distribution of observed flows during most seasons. Both species appeared to grow well in the study streams; although, Prickly Sculpin growth rates were approximately double that of Coastrange Sculpin. Coastrange Sculpin often inhabit riffles where increased fine sediments and embeddedness from urbanization may impact them more than Prickly Sculpin, which typically inhabit pools. The overall survival and growth of both species in the two highly urbanized streams was better than expected. This study suggests that the lack of sculpins in some urban streams may be a result of stream barriers to movement rather than poor habitat conditions.

Soil-Based Emissions and Context-Specific Climate Change Planning to Support the United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) on Climate Action: A Case Study of Georgia (USA)

Soil-based emissions from land conversions are often overlooked in climate planning. The objectives of this study were to use quantitative data on soil-based greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the state of Georgia (GA) (USA) to examine context-specific (temporal, biophysical, economic, and social) climate planning and legal options to deal with these emissions. Currently, 30% of the land in GA has experienced anthropogenic land degradation (LD) primarily due to agriculture (64%). All seven soil orders were subject to various degrees of anthropogenic LD. Increases in overall LD between 2001 and 2021 indicate a lack of land degradation neutrality (LDN) in GA. Besides agricultural LD, there was also LD caused by increased development through urbanization, with 15,197.1 km2 developed, causing midpoint losses of 1.2 × 1011 kg of total soil carbon (TSC) with a corresponding midpoint social cost from carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions (SC-CO2) of USD $20.4B (where B = billion = 109, $ = U.S. dollars (USD)). Most developments occurred in the Metro Atlanta and Coastal Economic Development Regions, which indicates reverse climate change adaptation (RCCA). Soil consumption from developments is an important issue because it limits future soil or forest carbon (C) sequestration potential in these areas. Soil-based emissions should be included in GA’s carbon footprint. Understanding the geospatial and temporal context of land conversion decisions, as well as the social and economic costs, could be used to create incentives for land management that limit soil-based GHG emissions in a local context with implications for relevant United Nations (UN) initiatives.

Dynamics System Modeling of Declining Agricultural Land Area Potentially Causing Jakarta Flood Disaster

The change or evolution of land use in the DKI Jakarta area has caused various environmental problems in the city that have an impact on disasters that occur from time to time. The conversion of agricultural land that has a relatively high ability to absorb water into built-up land has reduced the water absorption capacity because the built-up area is increasingly impermeable which is at risk of causing flood disasters. This research focuses on a simple dynamic system modeling approach to understand the cause-and-effect relationship of the decline in agricultural land area in the DKI Jakarta area. The method used in this research is a qualitative-based dynamic system, dynamic system is a method that can be used to form structures and predict behavior and feedback. Dynamic system modeling using Powersim Studi 10 Express software uses time specifications ranging from 2020 to 2070. The results of the dynamic system model of agricultural land decline can be said to be valid, where the dominant structure formed is Negative Feedback (Balancing Loop) with Exponential Decay behavior and Average Means Error (AME) test results obtained a value of 29.6%

Land Use Changes and Future Land Use Scenario Simulations of the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor under the Belt and Road Initiative

The China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), as an important part of the Belt and Road Initiative, is of great significance for the promotion of sustainable development in the region through the study of land use change and the simulation of future multi-scenarios. Based on the multi-period land use data of the CPEC, this study firstly analyzed the spatial and temporal land use changes in the CPEC from 2000 to 2020 by using GIS technology, and, secondly, simulated the land use patterns of the CPEC under four scenarios, namely, natural development, investment priority, ecological protection, and harmonious development, in 2040 by using the Markov-FLUS model with comprehensive consideration of natural, socio-economic, and other driving factors. The results show the following: (1) The urban land, forest land, and grassland in the CPEC from 2000 to 2020 show an increasing trend, while the farmland, unutilized land, and water area categories show a decreasing trend. In terms of land use transfer changes, the most frequently transferred out is the conversion of unutilized land to grassland. (2) The FLUS model has high accuracy in simulating the land use pattern of the CPEC, and its applicability in the CPEC area is strong and can be used to simulate the future land use pattern of the CPEC. (3) Among the four different land use scenarios, the harmonious development scenario strikes a better balance between infrastructure construction, economic development, and ecological protection, and can provide a scientific basis for future land management in the CPEC, in order to highlight the importance of promoting economic growth and ecological protection and ultimately realize sustainable development.

Grassland or Cropland? Land Use Dilemma and Ecological Solutions in Inner Mongolia

ABSTRACTInner Mongolia plays a critical role in both ecological conservation and food provision in China. However, some researchers have argued that focusing on and improving only one side of the equation necessarily threatens the functionality of the opposite side. To address this problem, we compared a “business‐as‐usual” scenario (BAU) with a “sustainable land use planning” scenario (SLU) constructed by simulating spatiotemporal changes in croplands and grasslands in Inner Mongolia from 2020 to 2030. Additionally, we analyzed the changes in ecosystem services and protein supply associated with changes in land use. We found that, in the BAU scenario, grasslands would decrease by 1.85% over the simulation period, while croplands would increase by 9.94%, with ecosystem services decreasing under both land uses. In contrast, land use changes over the same period in the SLU scenario are more significant, with increases of 11.33% and 2.78% in grassland and cropland, respectively, but, in this case, with ecosystem services increasing under both land uses. Moreover, protein supply increased under both scenarios, but SLU scenario can provide 33% more protein than the BAU scenario. The interconversion of cropland and grassland is the main type of land conversion in the study region, while cropland, grassland, and bare land show a triangular cycle of conversion. In addition, the implementation of scenario planning can realize multiple dividend for cultivation, livestock, and ecology in Inner Mongolia.

Spatially Explicit Impact of Land Use Changes in the Bay Area on Anthropogenic Phosphorus Emissions and Freshwater Eutrophication Potential.

Land use changes significantly impact anthropogenic phosphorus (P) emissions, their migration to a water environment, and the formation of freshwater eutrophication potential (FEP), yet the spatiotemporally heterogeneous relationships at the regional scale have been less explored. This study combines land use classification, P-flow modeling, spatial analysis, and cause-effect chain modeling to assess P emissions and P-induced FEP at a fine spatial resolution in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and reveals their dynamic responses to land use changes. We find that land conversion from cultivated land to impervious land corresponded to an increase in P emissions of 4.1, 1.8, and 0.5 Gg during 2000-2005, 2005-2010, and 2010-2015 periods, respectively, revealing its dominant but weakening role in the intensification of P emissions especially in less-developed cities. Expansion of aquacultural land gradually became the primary contributor to the increase in both the amount and intensity of P emissions. Land conversions from cultivated land to impervious land and from natural water bodies to aquacultural land led to 35.9% and 25.3% of the increase in FEP, respectively. Our study identifies hotspots for mitigating the environmental pressure from P emissions and provides tailored land management strategies at specific regional development stages and within sensitive areas.

Conversion of coastal marsh to aquaculture ponds decreased the potential of methane production by altering soil chemical properties and methanogenic archaea community structure

Coastal wetlands are among the most productive and dynamic ecosystems globally, contributing significantly to atmospheric methane (CH4) emissions. The widespread conversion of these wetlands into aquaculture ponds degrades these ecosystems, yet its effects on CH4 production and associated microbial mechanisms are not well understood. This study aimed to assess the impact of land conversion on CH4 production potential, total and active soil organic C (SOC) content, and microbial communities. We conducted a comparative study on three brackish marshes and adjacent aquaculture ponds in southeastern China. Compared to costal marshes, aquaculture ponds exhibited significantly (P < 0.05) lower CH4 production potential (0.05 vs. 0.02 μg kg−1 h−1), SOC (17.64 vs. 6.97 g kg−1), total nitrogen (TN) content (1.62 vs. 1.24 g kg−1) and carbon/nitrogen (C/N) ratio (10.85 vs. 5.66). CH4 production potential in aquaculture ponds was influenced by both microbial and abiotic factors. Specifically, the relative abundance of Methanosarcina slightly decreased in aquaculture ponds, while the potential for CH4 production declined with lower SOC contents and C/N ratio. Overall, our findings demonstrate that converting natural coastal marshes into aquaculture ponds reduces CH4 production by altering key soil properties and the structure and diversity of methanogenic archaea communities. These results provide empirical evidence to enhance global carbon models, improving predictions of carbon feedback from wetland land conversion in the context of climate change.

Spatio-temporal Evolution of Land Use in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Economic Area, 1985-2022 and Analysis of Influencing Factors

This research employs GIS and remote sensing technology, along with time-series Land cover data, to examine the evolving patterns of various land use categories (such as forest land, cultivated land, and impervious surfaces) within the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. The results indicate that the predominant spatial configuration of land use in this region follows a sequence of "forest land-cultivated land-impervious land." Notably, the key transformation observed involves the conversion of cultivated land to impervious surfaces, resulting in a cumulative expansion of impervious areas by 3,346,985 hectares between 1985 and 2022. Moreover, the level of spatial integration among land use types in the Greater Bay Area is progressively standardizing, with notable advancements in scientific, technological, economic, and transportation sectors leading to a high degree of synergy. The system as a whole demonstrates effective coordination and operational efficiency. The methodology section outlines the data sources and analytical techniques employed, encompassing the utilization of the land use transfer matrix, individual land use degree assessment, and spatial coupling function model. Through these methodologies, the study identifies urban economic development as the primary driver behind the proliferation of impervious surfaces, offering valuable insights to inform regional development strategies and environmental governance policies.

Future Food Security Challenges in Riau Province, Indonesia

The food crisis is a real problem in various regions around the world, including Indonesia. This phenomenon is influenced by the rate of population growth which is increasing while farmlands are depleting due to the conversion of land into settlements, especially in Riau Province which is experiencing food security threats. Food security projections are made to provide an overview of the future condition of food security in Riau Province to support sustainability. The basic data used are data for 2018 and 2019. The measurement method used is the scenario method and then the availability calculation method according to Minister of Agriculture Regulation Number 43/Permentan/OT.140/7/2010. Meanwhile, the calculation of food needs uses a formula taking into account the average consumption per capita per year from the regional agriculture service multiplied by the population in the year concerned. Then, the projections are measured using the arithmetic population growth formula approach for food availability and the geometric population growth formula for the food needs of the population. The food commodity in Riau Province used in the analysis is rice. The calculation results show that in the future food availability in Riau Province will not be able to meet its food needs. Keywords: availability of rice, rice needs, food security

Impacts of aquaculture practices on the sustainability of social-ecological systems in coastal zones of the Mekong Delta

Coastal and deltaic regions face increasing natural and human-induced hazards, such as cyclones, storm surges, erosion, and saline intrusion, exacerbated by climate change. In tropical zones, mangrove ecosystems provide vital protection against these threats, yet the conversion of mangroves to shrimp aquaculture undermines these benefits, even in protected areas.The Mekong Delta in Vietnam, historically rich in biodiversity and diverse habitats like mangroves and mudflats, has seen local communities thrive. However, rising global market demands have led to more intensive aquaculture models, posing new risks.This research examines the impact of shrimp farming models, from extensive to hyper-intensive, under multiple natural hazards and transformative processes like land conversion and mangrove restoration. Using risk assessment tools and data from local community interviews and focus groups, we present a model showcasing the influence of aquaculture on socio-ecological systems.Key findings reveal the interplay between livelihoods and landscape conversion, highlighting the risks and benefits of various shrimp farming models. The study stresses the need for stakeholder collaboration and improved wastewater treatment to enhance sustainability and environmental health in the Mekong Delta.

Updated distribution and new emerging populations of Cynometracebuensis F. Seid. (Fabaceae), a critically endangered endemic plant from the Philippines.

Cynometracebuensis F. Seid. is an endemic and threatened tree from the Philippines. The species was previously described to exclusively thrive in the Tabunan Forest of the Central Cebu Protected Landscape. Due to its narrow geographic distribution and threats from land conversion, slash-and-burn activities and non-regulated wood harvesting by locals, C.cebuensis was assessed as Critically Endangered (CR) under criteria B1a and B1b (as well as B2a and B2b) of the IUCN Red List in 2013. The present study provides new additional locations of C.cebuensis in the Municipalities of Argao and Minglanilla in Cebu along with population data and habitat characteristics for each site. Although new populations of C.cebuensis were discovered, it remains at significant risk of extinction in its natural habitat. Urgent and comprehensive conservation efforts are imperative to prevent its extinction. This paper provides the updated distribution map of Cynometracebuensis F. Seid, a critically endangered endemic species in the Philippines showing five (5) distribution records.

Tolerance of local gogo rice sprouts under salinity stress conditions

The expansion of rice planting areas in the future needs to be carried out outside Java, as fertile land in Java is shrinking due to land conversion. Most of the land outside Java consists of marginal land, such as areas with high salinity. High salinity levels in the soil cause a decrease in plant germination, growth, and production. The research aimed to examine the tolerance of each cultivar at each level of NaCl concentration, to obtain cultivars that were tolerant to salinity stress, and to determine the NaCl concentration that suppresses the germination of local upland rice. The research was structured using a completely randomized design with a two-factor factorial pattern. The first was the six upland rice cultivars, namely, dongan, jahara, Pulu Konta, pomegranate, kalendeng, and pulu tau leru, while the second factor was the NaCl concentration consisting of 0%, 0.2%, 0.4%, 0.6%, 0.8% and 1%. Thus, there were 36 experimental units, which were repeated three times so that there were 108 experimental units. The results of the research showed that there was no interaction with all germination variables; cultivar and concentration had a significant effect on maximum growth potential, germination capacity, germination time, plumule length, radicle length and dry weight of sprouts, while cultivar affected the wet weight of sprouts. Kalendeng has a high salinity tolerance. The use of NaCl concentrations of up to 0.6% has been able to reduce the germination capacity of local upland rice. The conclusion of the research showe that there was no interaction between all germination variables.

Prevention of Agricultural Land Conversion through Subak Instruments in Apuan Village, Susut District, Bangli District

Bangli is one of the districts in Bali that is also experiencing land conversion. The cause of this land conversion is due to the increasing need for development land, due to the increase in population. This will have an impact on reducing food production, socio economic aspects, socio cultural aspects and environmental aspects. Rapid population growth which is also accompanied by an increasing need for housing means that agricultural land is decreasing. Agricultural land is increasingly narrow due to land conversi on for housing and industrial land. This research examines the function and role as well as strategies of Subak in preventing land conversion in Apuan Village. This research is empirical legal research. The research results show that Sub ak has a function and role as a traditional institution which is expected to prevent land conversion with all forms of legal regulations owned by this organization and through intensive appeals and approaches. The life of the Subak community which is based on Tri Hita Karana is expected to be able to increase awareness and determination of Subak manners not to convert their land which will impact on the creation of environmental sustainability and the sustainability of Subak itself.

The Impact of Farmers' Socio-Economic Conditions Due to the Conversion of Agricultural Land in Setia Mulya Village, Bekasi Regency, Indonesia

Land conversion is the change of the original land function into another function. The conversion of laham affects the socio-economic conditions of farmers, especially in Setia Mulya Village. Socioeconomic conditions are a person's position in a community group that is determined by the type of economic activity, education, and income. The conversion of agricultural land can have an impact on the social and economic conditions of farmers. What is observed in this study is social conditions, economic conditions and their impact on farmers. The purpose of this study is to analyze changes in the socio-economic conditions of farmers due to land conversion and their impact on farmers' lives. The method used was a qualitative method with data sources obtained from observations, interviews, and documentation with farmers as respondents totaling 15 farmers, with sampling techniques using snowball sampling techniques. The results of the study showed changes in the socio-economic conditions of farmers due to land conversion that occurred in Setia Mulya Village. Changes in socio-economic conditions related to the age of farmers, changes in social status, changes in farmers' income, and farmers' household consumption. Farmers in Setia Mulya Village are cultivators so they have to pay rent to the landowner so that farming activities can continue. Although the area of agricultural land in Setia Mulya Village is very large, the high rental prices and the difficulty of irrigation flows make farmers have to look for decent agricultural land that can be used properly.

Model for Determining Sustainable Food Agricultural Land through a Spatial Optimization Approach in Bantul Regency

Land use is a characteristic of the arrangements, activities, and contributions made by humans to either effect changes or maintain a certain type of land cover (Gregorio and Jansen, 1998). Agricultural land is a crucial resource for sustainability and food security. In an effort to control and anticipate the conversion of agricultural land, the Bantul Regency Government has issued Regional Regulation No. 10 of 2023 on the Protection of Sustainable Food Agricultural Land, with a total area of 12,831 hectares. However, the area designated for protection according to the 2021 study recommendations is 14,407.50 hectares. This represents a reduction of 1,576 hectares due to agricultural land in Sewon and Kasihan Districts being planned for non-agricultural use. Therefore, the objective of this study is to identify the modeling of sustainable food agricultural land designation in Bantul Regency, using a linear programming optimization approach with the aid of Microsoft Excel Solver. The linear programming model, with the objective function to minimize the area designated in the regional regulation, determined the need for 11,356.52 hectares of agricultural land to maintain food security in Bantul Regency over a period of 20 years.

Analyzing Land Suitability for Housing in Bekasi Regency: Managing Farmland Conversion During Urban Growth

Bekasi Regency is a buffer area for Jakarta and is part of the Jakarta Metropolitan Region (JMR). Along with Karawang, this region is a major rice producer, but it is currently experiencing significant land conversion from agriculture to residential and industrial uses. Preventing this conversion is very challenging due to the high population growth in the area. To address this issue, this study aims to conduct a suitability analysis to identify areas that are unsuitable for agricultural land but still suitable for residential purposes. The factors considered in the suitability analysis include slope, distance to roads, distance to residential areas, distance to facilities and infrastructure, and distance to rivers and irrigation systems. The results of the study identify areas that are unsuitable for agriculture, allowing local governments to focus on these areas as potential sites for new residential developments. The location is situated in the southern part of Bekasi Regency, specifically in the Cikarang area and its surroundings.

Spatial distribution and topographic gradient effects of habitat quality in the Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration, China

This study aimed to analyze spatio-temporal changes in habitat quality in Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration during the 2000–2020 period and explore its topographic gradient effects. Using land use data from this period, the InVEST model was employed to assess the spatio-temporal variations in habitat quality. The bivariate spatial autocorrelation model was used to analyze the spatial correlation characteristics between habitat quality and various topographical factors. Additionally, terrain factor analysis was utilized to study the terrain gradient effects on habitat quality in the study area. The results reveal that: (1) The primary land use changes in the study area from 2000 to 2020 predominantly involve substantial arable land and forest conversions into urban development. (2) The average habitat quality indices for 2000, 2010, and 2020 in the Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration stand at 0.651, 0.622, and 0.606, respectively, indicating a consistent declining trend in habitat quality. The distribution of habitat quality grades demonstrates a spatial pattern of “lower in the central surroundings, higher in the surroundings.” (3) The Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration shows significant positive correlations between habitat quality and topographical gradients. Spatial aggregation tendencies between habitat quality and topographical gradients primarily exhibit “high-high” and “low-low” clustering. (4) The habitat quality of the Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration exhibits a significant topographic gradient effect, primarily characterized by an increase in habitat quality with the rise of the topographic gradient. The study outcomes contribute to unveiling the spatiotemporal variations in habitat quality within the Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration. Moreover, leveraging different habitat types’ distinctive terrain distribution characteristics, it proposes targeted habitat conservation measures, thereby offering theoretical support for biodiversity conservation and territorial spatial planning in the study area.