Conversion Of Agricultural Land Research Articles

Western Cattle Egrets’ (Bubulcus ibis) roosting colony size estimates in urban landscape mosaics of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, with notes on habitat threats and features near roosts

Western Cattle Egrets (Bubulcus ibis) persist through phenotypic plasticity in behaviour and undertaking various forms of migration to exploit available resources in the anthropogenic landscape mosaics. The degradation of natural habitats, with land conversion for agriculture and urbanisation means co-existing alongside humans. However, their persistence is affected by human-egret conflict, exacerbated by a growing human population. We investigated the size of Western Cattle Egrets roosting colonies within the uMgungundlovu (Pietermaritzburg) and eThekwini (Durban) Municipalities, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. We observed landscape features within 30 km of roosts with notes on possible threats to urban persistence, from October 2018 to September 2019. These areas were both urban mosaic landscapes with some remaining natural green areas as well as managed green spaces with urban built. We conducted monthly roosting or nesting population estimates of Western Cattle Egrets in these municipalities and identified characteristics which allow their urban roost persistence. An increase in roosting population from under 500 individuals in 2018 to over 600 individuals in the post-breeding season in 2019 was observed; however, no significant difference in roosting population size between the breeding and the post-breeding seasons was found. All Western Cattle Egret roosting and nesting colonies were within 10 km of a landfill, wetland, major road, river, or grassland. In addition, nesting sites were more likely to be near a wastewater treatment facility than roosts without nests. Roosting and nesting sites had varying levels of disturbance, and they require protection for continued Western Cattle Egret persistence in urban mosaic landscapes.

The Spatial Context of the Removal of Sustainable Rice Fields in Surakarta City

The area designated for agriculture is diminishing due to urban expansion. Control measures play a crucial role in preventing the conversion of agricultural land. The limited availability of land in Surakarta City serves as justification for the city government, as a regulatory body, not to designate agricultural areas in the Surakarta City spatial planning (RTRW) for the years 2021-2041. When the central government enacted a policy regarding the protection of rice fields, the Surakarta City administration requested its exclusion from the decree. This study adopts a case study approach to provide an overview of agricultural lands in Surakarta City that have been omitted from this policy. Data were gathered through interviews, observations, and document analysis. It has been observed that Surakarta City still possesses rice fields that local farmers cultivate, and these farmers are residents holding Surakarta ID cards. This situation leads to a realization that the city’s planning fails to support sustainable development despite agriculture not being the predominant occupation in the area. In addition to the ineffective control efforts at the city level, this phenomenon highlights the need for agricultural empowerment to ensure the continued development of socio-cultural practices.

The Impact of Agricultural Land Reclamation and Conversion on Farmers' Livelihoods: A Case Study of the Thai Nguyen Stadium Project in Phuc Trieu Commune, Thai Nguyen City, Thai Nguyen Province

This study focuses on evaluating the impacts of agricultural land reclamation and conversion on the livelihoods of households affected by the Thai Nguyen Stadium Project in Phuc Trieu Commune, Thai Nguyen City. The research employed a combination of methods, including information collection through literature review and interviews with households whose agricultural land was reclaimed. Collected data were synthesized to analyze and evaluate the economic conditions of farming households post-reclamation. Statistical analysis and comparative methods were applied to examine changes in key indicators, such as employment and income, before and after the reclamation and conversion of agricultural land in the study area. The findings reveal that the project has had significant impacts on the lives of local residents. Specifically, the reclamation and conversion of agricultural land have altered the labor structure, employment opportunities, and income levels of the affected population. These results provide a basis for proposing necessary measures to enhance the effectiveness of land-use planning and management in the local context.

Urban core greening and industrial decentralization lead to contrasting trends in surface urban heat islands in a metropolitan area in China.

Surface urban heat islands (SUHI) in urban agglomerations display diverse spatiotemporal patterns, particularly in rapidly urbanizing regions, where these patterns are not well understood. This study examined the spatiotemporal trends of SUHI intensity (SUHII) on the west bank of the Pearl River Estuary, China, from 1990 to 2020, focusing on spatial variations within urban core (UC) and urban expansion (UE) areas and their driving mechanisms. Results show that urban areas expanded rapidly, leading to the formation of a regional heat island, with SUHI intensity varying across the region and the hottest areas shifting from the UC to the UE. In the UE, SUHII increased significantly due to farmland conversion to impervious surfaces and a decline in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), driven by industrial suburbanization. In contrast, SUHII in the UC exhibited a marked decline, attributable to increased vegetation greening and urban renewal initiatives. These findings reveal long-term trends in SUHI evolution and underscore the significant impact of industrial decentralization and urban renewal on the SUHII dynamics. The study provides critical insights for urban planning and strategies to mitigate SUHI in metropolitan regions.

Response of Ecological Quality to Land Use/Cover Change During Rapid Urbanization of Xiong’an New Area

Rapid urbanization facilitates socioeconomic development but also exacerbates land use/cover change (LUCC), significantly impacting ecological environments. Timely, objective, and quantitative assessments of ecological quality changes resulting from LUCC are essential for safeguarding the natural environment and managing land resources. However, limited research has explored the potential interrelationships between the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of LUCC and ecological quality during urbanization. This study focuses on the Xiong’an New Area, a region experiencing rapid urbanization, utilizing the remote sensing-based ecological index (RSEI) to monitor ecological quality dynamics from 2017 to 2023. To address the computational challenges associated with large-scale regions, a streamlined RSEI construction method was developed using Landsat imagery and implemented via Google Earth Engine (GEE). A geographically weighted regression (GWR) analysis, integrated with Sentinel-2 land use data, was employed to examine the influence of LUCC on ecological quality. The findings reveal the following: (1) Ecological quality in the Xiong’an New Area has exhibited an overall positive trajectory, with improvements elevating the ecological status to above moderate levels. (2) Urban expansion resulted in a 17% reduction in farmland, primarily converted into construction land, which expanded by approximately 12%. (3) Ecological protection policies have facilitated the conversion of farmland into wetlands and urban green areas, which emerged as the principal contributors to ecological quality enhancement. (4) A positive correlation was observed between changes in ecological land and ecological quality, while a negative correlation was identified between shifts in the construction land and farmland and ecological quality. This research provides valuable scientific insights into ecological conservation and land use management, thereby establishing a foundation for the development of rational land resource planning and sustainable ecological development strategies in the Xiong’an New Area.

Analysis of Land Use Changes and Their Impact on Environmental Quality in Kembaran Subdistrict (2016�2022)

The conversion of agricultural land to non-agricultural use in Kembaran District, prompted by the development of Purwokerto, has resulted in multiple environmental impacts. This study seeks to analyze land changes and their effects on environmental quality from 2016 to 2022, employing a mixed-methods approach that integrates both quantitative and qualitative data within a spatial framework. The analysis identifies six categories of land use changes. Mixed Gardens are transformed into Rare Villages (1,954 ha) and Rare Housing (0.156 ha); Irrigated Rice Fields are converted into Small Industries (5,838 ha), Road Networks (0.270 ha), Rare Villages (3,374 ha), and Sparse Housing (2,642 ha). The alterations impact the quality of the residential environment, categorized into good (131,758 ha), medium (311,003 ha), and poor (310,903 ha) classifications. High-quality settlements exhibit low to medium density, abundant shade trees, and significant distance from pollution sources. In contrast, the medium category is characterized by medium density and a moderate presence of shade trees. Poor-quality settlements exhibit high density, a scarcity of shade trees, and closeness to pollution sources. The findings indicate that agricultural land conversion diminishes productive land and exacerbates environmental quality, particularly in densely populated areas with limited vegetation and proximity to pollution sources.

The Use of Sentinel-1 Imagery for Degraded Peatland Analysis in South Kalimantan Area with SSM Algorithm and Wosten Model

Abstract Indonesia has about 12% of its total land area, or about 14.9 million hectares, classified as peatland. Much of this land is distributed on the island of Kalimantan, around 6.5 million hectares, on the island of Sumatra around 7.1 million hectares, and the rest is in the Papua region. Peatlands have a vital role as a source of food and habitat for various types of living things. Ecologically, these lands function as global climate change control and flood control. However, anthropogenic human activities such as drainage, deforestation, land burning, and land conversion for agriculture have caused peatlands to be degraded. This has caused peatlands to become dry, oxidized, susceptible to fire, and prone to subsidence. As a result of creating degraded peatlands, terrestrial carbon trapped in peatlands will be released into the atmosphere, resulting in a greenhouse effect that contributes to global warming. In this research, Sentinel-1 SAR imagery data can identify degraded peatlands using the Surface Soil Moisture (SSM) algorithm and the Wosten Model Method. The SSM algorithm identified 217.55 hectares of degraded peatland in Bumi Makmur Subdistrict with an accuracy of 0.647. Meanwhile, the Wosten Model identified 254.88 hectares of degraded peatland in Bumi Makmur Subdistrict with an accuracy of 0.941.

Analisis Isu Strategis Rancangan Teknokratik RPJMD Kabupaten Badung Tahun 2025-2029

The writing of this policy paper is to describe the formulation of strategic issues for medium-term development planning in Badung Regency in 2025-2029. This study uses a qualitative method, namely an in-depth data processing method with data from observations, and literature. There are ten strategic issues of the 2025-2029 Badung Regency RPJMD technocratic design which are produced through weighting based on their linkage with global, national and Bali Province strategic issues, namely: geopolitics and geoeconomics; conversion of agricultural land; blue economy; Environment; technological developments; population explosion; climate change and disasters; public service infrastructure; green workforce; and talent management. The suggestion that can be implemented is that the Badung Regency Government needs to carry out a more in-depth discussion on the strategic issue of the 2025-2029 Badung Regency RPJMD technocratic design together with all regional apparatus and related stakeholders so that the development of Badung Regency has the right goals and objectives and can answer development problems in the next five years.

A Study of Trends and Factors Affecting the Agricultural Sector in Goa Since Liberation

This study analysed the trends in the deceleration of Goa’s agricultural sector, identified the challenges, and proposed measures for its revival. Compound growth rates, percentage shares, secondary data, and the Gini coefficient illustrated that this sector's growth rate fell to a negative value and that its employment share fell to less than 7 per cent of the total employment. Increased land inequality, a rise in unviable agricultural landholdings, the conversion of agricultural land into non-agricultural land, declining yield rates, and high labour costs have all contributed to the difficulty of automated farming. The state must study the feasibility of small farm technology, train farmers in modern small farming practices, implement land tenancy reforms, and provide marketing-linked incentives to revive agriculture.

Mapping LSD Locations by Integrating Land Documents and Spatial Planning in Cepu District

Abstract The conversion of agricultural land to non-agricultural land in Cepu Regency presents a challenge for the government to maintain food security and the agricultural sector in a sustainable manner. This research aims to identify and analyze gaps between data on rice fields and land and spatial planning, assess the potential for land conversion, and make recommendations for protected rice fields. Spatial analysis methods using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and quantitative methods are used to process data and provide appropriate recommendations, taking into account decreasing and increasing factors in identifying rice fields for conservation (LSD). The existing LSD determination has a total area of 2,662 Ha which can be utilized to maintain food security in Blora Regency. The evaluation object is protected rice fields that have the potential for conversion such as subsidized residential land, expansion of the Ngeloram airport and construction of residential houses. Recommendations for LSDs that experience conversion are conditionally permitted to change land use, and permitted to change land use.

Delineation of Irrigation Network Performance in Subak in South Denpasar District, Bali Province

Massive conversion of agricultural land into built-up land occurred in South Denpasar District. These changes impacted the decline in rice production by 5.5% in 2023 and a decrease in the performance of the irrigation network. This study employs GIS to assess the efficacy of irrigation networks to enhance sustainable agriculture, community food security, and irrigation and subak network systems in South Denpasar. This study used spatial analysis to create an irrigation network performance map. Data analysis interprets primary data based on field observation to assess the irrigation network's physical condition. The irrigation network is divided into four levels: good, slightly damaged, medium damaged, and badly damaged. The study indicated that Subak Sesetan disintegrated since it was thought to have turned into a village. The land conversion reduced the 292.593 Ha of subak (Kerdung, Cuculan, Kepaon, and Sesetan) to 186.314 Ha, or 36.32%. The length of irrigation canals was 16.901 Km, with good conditions along 16.67 Km or 98.61%, slightly damaged conditions along 0.051 Km or 0.3%, and moderately damaged conditions along 0.1842 Km or 1.09%. This research should help South Denpasar District stakeholders decide on land-use change strategies and rehabilitation or irrigation network development priorities.

Soil and Microbial Biomass Response to Land-Use Changes in the Loess Plateau

Vegetation restoration is a critical strategy for addressing ecosystem degradation globally. However, understanding the specific impacts of land-use changes, particularly the conversion of farmland to forestland and grassland, on soil nutrients and microbial biomass in the Loess Plateau remains limited and requires further evaluation. Therefore, this study was conducted to explore how these conversions affect soil organic carbon (SOC), total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and microbial biomass components under various land-use patterns. We studied the SOC, TN, TP, soil microbial biomass carbon (MBC), microbial biomass nitrogen (MBN), microbial biomass phosphorus (MBP) content and their ratios under six land-use patterns (Farmland (FL), Abandoned cropland (ACL), Natural grassland (NG), Alfalfa grassland (Medicago sativa L. (MS)), Spruce forestland (Picea asperata Mast. (PA)) and Cypress forestland (Platycladus orientalis (L.) Franco (PO))). The conversion of FL to grassland and forestland significantly increased C:N and C:P by 9.82~64.12%, 10.57~126.05%, and 51.44~113.40%, 22.10~116.09%, respectively. The conversion of FL to ACL reduced the C:N and C:P by 5.34~13.57% and 1.51~7.55%, respectively. The conversion of FL to NG can increase soil N:P. The conversion of FL to grassland and forestland increased soil MBC, MBN, and MBP by −31.54~84.48%, −48.39~1533.93%, −46.55~173.85%, and −34.96~17.13%, 68.72~432.14%, −38.39~318.46%, respectively. However, the MBC, MBN, and MBP contents in the soil converted from FL to ACL varied from −28.21~11.95%, 11.17~531.25%, and −82.64~70.77%, respectively. Soil SOC, TN, TP, available potassium (AK), pH, and soil bulk density (BD) are the main factors causing microbial biomass differences. These results indicate that converting farmland into forestland and grassland can improve soil nutrient structure and increase soil microbial biomass and carbon accumulation. The results of this study provide theoretical support for the scientific management of regional land.

Faktor Perubahan Alih Fungsi Lahan Pertanian Akibat Pembangunan Kawasan Aerotropolis Kulon Progo dan Dampaknya Terhadap Tata Guna Lahan LP2B, Pemukiman dan Pariwisata

The development of the Aerotropolis area in Kulon Progo Regency causes frequent changes in agricultural land use to residential areas, hotels, restaurants, and other infrastructure. The excessive rate of conversion of agricultural land will have a negative impact on Kulon Progo Regency. Therefore, it is necessary to know the factors causing changes in agricultural land use and their impact on LP2B areas, residences, and tourism. The research method used is descriptive-analytical with statistical data; observations of situational conditions and the results of interviews regarding the problem being studied will be analyzed and then explained more specifically and in depth. The results of the analysis show that the phenomenon of land conversion in Kulon Regency is influenced by internal factors, namely the strategic location of agricultural land and its proximity to public facilities. The productivity of the agricultural sector has decreased due to difficult farmer regeneration, which causes economic factors to emerge. Apart from that, it is also influenced by external factors, namely increasing population growth, increasing development of the trade and services sector, the COVID-19 pandemic, and government policies that facilitate the conversion of agricultural land. The impact is that land and agricultural productivity are decreasing while the area of residential areas and the tourism sector are increasing. As a result, the GDP growth rate in the agricultural sector decreased, while the accommodation and food and drink (tourism) sector and the service sector increased. This trend has the potential to reduce the implementation of LP2B in Kulon Progo Regency. Recommendations that need to be made are strengthening government policies regarding the protection of LP2B and the involvement of many parties from the community, private sector, NGOs (Non-Government Organizations), and local governments regarding the implementation of LP2B

Agricultural Land Conversion and Challenges for Tenant Farmers: Empirical Evidence From Pakistan

ABSTRACTAgricultural land conversion (ALC) is a common phenomenon, particularly in developing countries that is driven by motives of urban development and growth. This conversion causes a loss of income source, causing unemployment and food insecurity among rural communities. This study aimed to investigate the socioeconomic impacts of ALC on tenant farmers/sharecroppers' households. Data were collected through a questionnaire survey and statistical techniques were used to compare the data before and after the ALC. Moreover, the regression model was employed to estimate the important determinants of land conversion. Results showed that most of the farmers' lands were converted into a non‐agriculture sector and these lands were irrigated. After the land conversion, the farmers' main source of households' income changed from farming to wages, business, or remittances. The proportion of agricultural income to total income significantly declined from 65% to 25%. Animal rearing and agricultural production have significantly declined after the ALC in the study area. The farmers' consumption of most essential commodities has decreased significantly (p < 0.05). Furthermore, the farmers reduced expenditures on non‐food items and overall results showed that these tenant farmers/sharecroppers faced severe consequences of ALC. Crop diversification, farmers' education, experience, and agricultural labor were negatively associated with ALC. Immediate actions from the district and provincial governments are needed to safeguard these households from the adverse impacts of poverty and food insecurity. By improving access to water sources and introducing diversified and integrated farming systems, these lands can become more productive, allowing farmers to cultivate a wider range of crops and raise livestock, making the land more economically viable for continued agricultural use.

Subak Lungatad in Preventing Land Conversion through the Revision of Awig – Awig

Subak is a community organization that specializes in regulating the rice field irrigation system used in rice cultivation in Bali, one of which is Subak Lungatad Yang in Peguyangan Kangin Village, North Denpaar. Subak Lungatad has a customary law norm called Awig-Awig. Awig-Awig is a customary law norm that is formulated and regulates the behavior pattern of community members in interacting in order to create order and peace, meaning that Awig-Awig grows and is formulated so that the life of the community in the customary village is not damaged. However, in the application of awig – awig Subak is also lived by the Balinese people as a concept of life, because it is a direct manifestation of the philosophy called Tri Hita Karana. There is a problem that arises in the awigs in Subak Lungatad is that they have not regulated and can anticipate changes in land use change in the subak Lungatad district Land use change in the last 1 year covering an area of 0.8 hectares, which is in Subak Lungatad, from the area of Subak 114 hectares. From this data, it can be described that land use change is still occurring. Pekaseh Subak Lungatad, I Made Maja, revealed that Subak Lungatad is part of the irrigation area of Kedewatan Pasedahan Yeh Lauh, Peguyangan Kangin Village, North Denpasar District. With a raw land area of 120 hectares, all of them are semi-irrigated. The subak land continues to experience pressure due to land conversion, there tends to be housing development. This condition is certainly really concerning for the future of rice fields and agriculture of the people of Denpasar. The participation of Krama Subak in preventing the conversion of agricultural land into housing can be done by including the rules in the awig-awig subak. Although the existing awig subak has not yet regulated it, it can be made in the form of a perarem or implementing rule of the awig- awig. The role of subak as a traditional organization in the field of water use at the farming level in indigenous peoples. The important role of the subak system is closely related to the strength of the subak itself, including the simplicity of the organizational structure, a cooperative work system and the implementation of the Tri Hita Karana philosophy. One of them is related to weakness which is also related to the lands in the subak lungakad area. The Awig Subak Lungatad that was made has not been regulated for a long time in anticipating changes in land use.

Multi-temporal image analysis of wetland dynamics using machine learning algorithms

Wetlands play a crucial role in enhancing groundwater quality, mitigating natural hazards, controlling erosion, and providing essential habitats for unique flora and wildlife. Despite their significance, wetlands are facing decline in various global locations, underscoring the need for effective mapping, monitoring, and predictive modeling approaches. Recent advances in machine learning, time series earth observation data, and cloud computing have opened up new possibilities to address the challenges of large-scale wetlands mapping and dynamics forecasting. This research conducts a comprehensive analysis of wetland dynamics in the Thatta region, encompassing Haleji & Kinjhar Lake in Pakistan, and evaluates the efficacy of different classification systems. Leveraging Google Earth Engine, Landsat imagery, and various spectral indices, we assess four classification techniques to derive accurate wetland mapping results. Our findings demonstrate that Random Forest emerged as the most efficient and accurate method, achieving 87% accuracy across all time periods. Change detection analysis reveals a significant and alarming decline in Haleji & Kinjhar Lake wetlands over 1990–2020, primarily driven by agricultural expansion, urbanization, groundwater extraction, and climate change impacts like rising temperatures and reduced precipitation. If left unaddressed, this continued wetland loss could have severe implications for aquatic and terrestrial species, water and soil quality, wildlife populations, and local livelihoods. The study predicts future wetland dynamics under different scenarios - enhancing drainage for farmland conversion (10–20% increase), increasing urbanization (10–20% expansion), escalating groundwater extraction (7.2m annual decline), and climate change (up to 5 °C warming and 54% precipitation deficit by 2050). These scenarios forecast sustained long-term wetland deterioration driven by anthropogenic pressures and climate change. To guide conservation strategies, the research integrates satellite data analytics, machine learning algorithms, and spatial modeling to generate actionable insights into multifaceted wetland vulnerabilities. Findings provide a robust baseline to inform policies ensuring sustainable management and preservation of these vital ecosystems amidst escalating human and climate threats. Over 1990–2020, the Thatta region witnessed a 352.8 sq.km loss of wetlands, necessitating urgent restoration efforts to safeguard their invaluable ecosystem services.

Addressing Urban Sprawl: is Densification the Solution? A Case Study of Sétif, Algeria

Objectives: The rapid and uncontrolled urban growth in Sétif, northeastern Algeria, has resulted in horizontal densification, continual expansion, and the conversion of agricultural land into urban areas. This transformation highlights the need for effective territorial strategies to manage urban growth sustainably. The primary objective of this study is to promote urban densification through concepts like "inward urbanisation" and "building the city within the city," aiming to optimise land use and counter the negative impacts of urban sprawl. Methods: To address the challenges of urban sprawl and its environmental impacts, the study employs a morphological approach. A Geographic Information System (GIS) is utilised in conjunction with data from the General Census of Population and Housing (RGPH) to analyse spatiotemporal changes in Sétif. This methodological approach enables a detailed examination of the city's morphological and demographic evolution, providing insights into patterns of urban expansion and densification. Results: The findings reveal various strategies for urban development in Sétif, focusing on alternatives to traditional urban density and sprawl. The study identifies and suggests the implementation of new, dense, and hybrid urban forms that align with sustainable development goals. These urban forms are designed to enhance the city’s livability while respecting societal needs and environmental considerations. The strategies proposed address the necessity for adaptable urban designs that support a more compact, resource-efficient city model. Conclusion: This research underscores the importance of rethinking urban planning strategies to manage rapid urbanisation in Sétif. The proposed strategies are essential for transforming Sétif into a dense, sustainable, and appealing urban environment. The study advocates for a shift from expansive urban growth to a densification model that promotes sustainability and aligns with the evolving expectations of the city’s residents.

Economic Impact of Land Use Change on Rice Paddy Farmers in Palembang City Indonesia

Agricultural land conversion has the potential to have complex economic impacts on communities and related sectors. This change can alter income patterns and cause a decrease in welfare for farmers and business actors related to agriculture. This study aims to analyze the economic impact of land conversion on rice farmers in lebak rice fields in Palembang City. The research location was purposively chosen, by taking a sample of 250 respondents who were divided into two, namely farmers who changed land use and those who did not change land use. Economic impact analysis is looking at farmers' income before and after land conversion in the last 5 years interval, 2019-2023. The results showed that there was a difference in farmers' rice farming income before and after land conversion obtaining a tcount value of -5,450, significant at the 0.01 confidence level (0.000 <0.01). The economic impact of land conversion on rice farmers is in the form of a decrease in rice farming income.

Dynamics System Modeling of Declining Agricultural Land Area Potentially Causing Jakarta Flood Disaster

The change or evolution of land use in the DKI Jakarta area has caused various environmental problems in the city that have an impact on disasters that occur from time to time. The conversion of agricultural land that has a relatively high ability to absorb water into built-up land has reduced the water absorption capacity because the built-up area is increasingly impermeable which is at risk of causing flood disasters. This research focuses on a simple dynamic system modeling approach to understand the cause-and-effect relationship of the decline in agricultural land area in the DKI Jakarta area. The method used in this research is a qualitative-based dynamic system, dynamic system is a method that can be used to form structures and predict behavior and feedback. Dynamic system modeling using Powersim Studi 10 Express software uses time specifications ranging from 2020 to 2070. The results of the dynamic system model of agricultural land decline can be said to be valid, where the dominant structure formed is Negative Feedback (Balancing Loop) with Exponential Decay behavior and Average Means Error (AME) test results obtained a value of 29.6%

Assessment of climatic and anthropogenic influences on vegetation dynamics in China: a consideration of climate time-lag and cumulative effects.

Determining the factors that drive vegetation variation is complicated by the intricate interactions between climatic and anthropogenic influences. Neglecting the short-term time-lag and cumulative effects of climate on vegetation growth (i.e., temporal effects) exacerbates the uncertainty in attributing long-term vegetation dynamics. This study evaluated the climatic and anthropogenic influences on vegetation dynamics in China from 2000 to 2019 by analyzing normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, and ten anthropogenic indicators through linear regression, correlation, multiple linear regression (MLR), residual, and principal component analyses. Across most regions, growing season NDVI (G-NDVI) exhibited heightened sensitivity to climatic variables from earlier periods or from both earlier and current periods, signaling extensive temporal climatic effects. Constructing new time series for temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation from 2000 to 2019, based on the optimal vegetation response timing to each climatic variable, revealed significant correlations with G-NDVI across 27.9%, 26.7%, and 23.3% of the study area, respectively. Climate variability and anthropogenic activities contributed 45% and 55% to the G-NDVI increase in China, respectively. Afforestation significantly promoted vegetation greening, while agricultural development had a marginally positive influence. In contrast, urbanization negatively impacted vegetation, particularly in eastern China, where farmland conversion to constructed land has been prevalent over the past two decades. Neglecting temporal effects would significantly reduce the areas with robust MLR models linking G-NDVI to climatic variables, thereby increasing uncertainty in attributing vegetation changes. The findings highlight the necessity of integrating multiple anthropogenic factors and climatic temporal effects in evaluating vegetation dynamics and ecological restoration.