Convergence Of CO2 Emissions Research Articles

Convergence of CO2 emissions among the selected countries on the Silk Road: evidence from nonlinear panel unit root tests.

This study analyzes the convergence of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by examining the stationarity of the relative per capita CO2 emissions of 18 selected countries on the Silk Road for the period 1990-2020. To examine the stationarity of relative per capita CO2 emissions for those 18 countries, we applied a large battery the newly proposed nonlinear panel unit root tests that allow for several forms of state-dependent and time-dependent nonlinearities. We also applied conventional linear panel unit root tests. The linear and nonlinear panel unit root tests account for cross-country dependencies, and the SPSM procedure is applied to these tests in order to see how many countries in the panel sample are converging to the steady state. The test results of linear and nonlinear panel unit root test reveal that the relative per-capita CO2 emissions of 10 out of 18 countries are stationary meaning that the CO2 emissions of these 10 countries converge to the steady-state level over time. Especially, size and sign nonlinearities better capture the convergence dynamics of per capita CO2 emissions towards the steady-state level for seven countries.As we have foundthat 56% of countries' per capita CO2 emissions are converging, this result has important policy implications.

Convergence of CO2 emissions in countries at different stages of development. Do globalisation and environmental policies matter?

Our study compares the convergence of CO2 emissions in countries at different stages of development based on two measures of CO2 emissions (production and consumption approach). It examines the effect of globalisation and environmental policy stringency on CO2 emissions convergence. We employ panel data from 38 countries from the period between 1992 and 2019 and apply the DCCE-MG model. The results reveal absolute convergence, which means that countries at different stages of development converge differently, as well as conditional convergence in both developed and developing economies, although it is faster in latter. The most important finding is that convergence alone is insufficient to positively assess climate policies implemented in particular countries, as in developing countries average CO2 levels increase relatively rapidly, whereas in developed countries they decrease slowly. The analysis of the determinants indicates that the CO2 convergence process in developing countries – unlike in developed countries – is significantly influenced by more stringent environmental policies and increasing globalisation, while renewable energy consumption and industrialisation do not exert any impact on this process. The impact of GDP levels is ambiguous. Moreover, the impact of globalisation depends on the measure of CO2 emissions, and this relationship is stronger in consumption emissions than in production ones.

Toward carbon peaking and neutralization: The heterogeneous stochastic convergence of CO2 emissions and the role of digital inclusive finance

This article explores the dynamic distribution of city-level CO2 emissions from China's national and regional perspectives. For this, we apply a q-σ stochastic convergence model to inspect the heterogeneous convergence trend of carbon emissions at different quantiles. A panel time-varying quantile regression model with a factor structure was employed to determine the absolute and conditional q-β stochastic convergence of CO2 emissions and to examine the dynamic influence of digital inclusive finance on the convergence of carbon emissions. The results show (i) CO2 emissions exhibit a spatially imbalanced distribution pattern of being low in east and high in the west. The dynamic progression of carbon emissions in different areas presents huge differences in which Eastern, Central and Western China show insignificant and significant changes of distribution trending in CO2 emissions. (ii) Excluding the central region, country's CO2 emissions in eastern and western regions display dynamic q-σ convergence and dynamic absolute q-β convergence at different quantiles. In contrast, a conditional q-β convergence of CO2 emissions in the whole country and each region is found across 5%–95% quantiles. (iii) At national and regional emissions, the dynamic q-σ convergence, absolute and conditional q-β convergence typically becomes more pronounced at mid-high quantile than at low quantile. (iv) Development of digital inclusive finance across the country and in Central and Western China generally facilitates carbon emissions convergence, but the opposite result for the eastern region. Finally, comprehensive finance growth, digital finance and low-carbon technological efforts can be a better fit for achieving dual-carbon goals.

Convergence of CO2 emissions in the selected world countries

Nowadays, the topic of CO2 emissions has been a subject of intensive debate. There is a significant policy push toward reducing emissions that cause air pollution and other environmental concerns. The aim of this paper is to analyze the CO2 emissions as well as economic growth along with renewable energy use and the level of urbanization in the selected World countries in the period of 1995-2018. In general, almost all of the Northern part of the World was characterized by a high level of CO2 emissions, while the majority of African territory was the least polluted. The empirical result shows that the growth rate of air pollution is much higher in countries that initially had a low level of CO2 emissions, so the convergence process occurred. Conditioning convergence with the renewable energy use and the urbanization level indicates that its speed is higher. Club convergence analysis has proved that well-developed regions in terms of GDP per capita are able to improve the ecological situation despite further economic growth.

Carbon emissions convergence and determinant analysis: Evidence from ASEAN countries

In this study, we aim to uncover the convergence pattern of carbon emissions and its determinants towards effective reduction policies. In particular, we contribute to the emissions convergence literature by examining convergence in CO2 emissions for a sample of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member states, spanning the period from 1960 to 2018. We adopt the log (t) club convergence approach and examine convergence patterns in total CO2 emissions as well as emissions disaggregated by sources. We focus on emissions emerging from coal, oil, natural gas and cement production. The findings from the full sample analysis reveal two sub-convergent clubs that reflect population size, geography, and energy demand. The disaggregated analysis by sources show that the sources of emissions significantly influence convergence behaviour across the ASEAN countries investigated. We find that the transition paths of emissions are more pronounced for oil, gas and cement production with a large number of non-converging states. To ascertain the reason behind this result, we examine the determinants of the convergence process. We detect that urbanization plays a vital role in the convergence path of carbon emissions and calls for urgent efforts to decarbonize urbanization-related infrastructure processes.

The spatial distribution dynamic and convergence of CO2 emissions in Iran's provinces.

It is essential to study CO2 emissions intensity as the most critical factor affecting temperature increase and climate change in a country like Iran, which ranked seven regarding CO2 emissions intensity. Investigating the convergence of CO2 emissions intensity is essential in recognizing its dynamics in identifying the effectiveness of government environmental policies. In this paper, using the Markov chain and spatial Markov chain methods, the convergence of CO2 emissions intensity from fossil-fuel consumption has been investigated in 28 provinces of Iran from 2002 to 2016. The empirical results showed that convergence clubs and neighbors significantly influenced the transition probability of regions to clubs with high and low CO2 emissions. Therefore, if a province had a neighbor with low (high) CO2 emissions intensity, the transition probability of this province to the club with low (high) CO2 intensity increased. Therefore, in provinces that have neighbors with low (high) CO2 emissions intensity, the transition probability to the club with low (high) CO2 intensity increases.

The nonlinearity and nonlinear convergence of CO2 emissions: Evidence from top 20 highest emitting countries.

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most prevalent greenhouse gas that triggers climate change, which in turn leads to catastrophic effects on trade, business, human health, and other areas. Understanding the characteristics and tendency of CO2 emissions will improve policy making and mitigation strategies. Understanding the linearity or nonlinearity and convergence or divergence of CO2 emissions is essential for selecting appropriate modeling techniques and for designing reliable policies. Therefore, this paper investigates the nonlinearity and nonlinear convergence of CO2 emissions among the world's top 20 highest emitting countries, which account for 80% of the world's total emissions. To check the nonlinearity of CO2 emissions, the McLeod-Li nonlinearity test, the Terasvirta nonlinearity test, and the Brock-Dechert-Scheinkman-LeBaron nonlinearity test are employed. The convergence or divergence of CO2 emissions is checked by using the Kilic nonlinear unit root test, the Hu and Chen nonlinear unit root test, and the Park and Shintani nonlinear unit root test. The findings revealed that the CO2 emissions process in all the 20 countries is nonlinear; 17 countries exhibit convergence in CO2 emissions while the other 3 countries diverged from 1960 to 2018. Based on the results, the nonlinear nature of CO2 emissions requires special attention from scholars when selecting estimation techniques for CO2 emissions. For countries with convergence, emissions trends can be used to forecast future values of CO2 emissions. Moreover, strong policy actions are required to achieve convergence in the countries with divergence.

Toward Carbon Peaking and Neutralization: The Heterogeneous Stochastic Convergence of Co2 Emissions and the Role of Digital Inclusive Finance

Toward Carbon Peaking and Neutralization: The Heterogeneous Stochastic Convergence of Co2 Emissions and the Role of Digital Inclusive Finance

A unified theory and evidence on CO2 emissions convergence.

The objective of this paper is to develop and test a sound theory of CO2 emissions convergence equation. To this end, we modify the Solow growth model by including depleting energy as a factor of production and by defining the channel through which CO2 emissions are created. Then, we empirically estimate the derived per capita CO2 emissions convergence equation employing system GMM approach on a panel dataset of 65 countries over the period 1970 to 2014. Results present strong evidence towards the existence of convergence for the global sample over the whole period. We also find that, in terms of per capita CO2 emissions, Annex I parties of UNFCCC converge, while non-Annex countries diverge. Our robustness check via stochastic convergence tests confirms our system GMM results for Annex I countries.

Per capita carbon emissions convergence in developing Asia: A century of evidence from covariate unit root test with endogenous structural breaks

Many studies address the convergence in per capita CO2 emissions. However, whether countries with lower initial per capita emission levels can “catch up” with more emission-intensive countries is unknown. Utilising historical CO2 emission data from 1907, this study investigates whether the per capita CO2 emissions of seven developing Asian economies; namely, China, Indonesia, India, Myanmar, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Thailand, catch up with or converge toward that of the US in the long run. We simultaneously examine the existence of per capita CO2 emissions convergence and the statistical contribution of the emissions drivers using the most recently developed covariate augmented Dickey-Fuller test, which allows for endogenous structural breaks. The main results show firm evidence of catching-up or relative/absolute convergence between the Asian economies and the US in terms of per capita CO2 emissions. Emissions drivers such as population and real GDP per capita growth may encourage the Asian economies to achieve and to maintain the long-run convergence toward the reference country.

Convergence and club convergence of CO2 emissions at state levels: A nonlinear analysis of the USA

This study analyses the convergence of CO2 emissions at state-level in the USA for the period from 1976 to 2014 in a nonlinear and novel empirical framework. In so doing, we have applied Pesaran’s (2007) test of pair-wise approach to testing convergence which gives in general what are the rejection frequencies and thus provides evidence of convergence. At the aggregate level, we also applied Chi-Young et al. (2006) half-life convergence test and the KPSS test with Fourier transformation which states are converging towards a cross-section average. Finally, we also adopted club convergence approach developed by Phillips and Sul (2007) to identify if the states are converging towards a club and last but not least, we applied Schnurbus et al., 2017 test to find if there is possible evidence if club merging. We make two contributions to the literature: (i) we conduct a country-specific analysis by focusing on the US; (ii) we consider both convergence and club convergence. Our overall results from the Pesaran’s (2007) pair-wise approach of convergence indicates that about 35% of the time the null of a unit root is rejected when ADF test is used and about 22% of the time null is rejected when ADF-GLS is used (irrespective of AIC or SBIC criterion). These results are also supported by KPSS stationary test which shows that null is rejected about 70–80% times. However, when Fourier function is incorporated in the KPSS test we find that the null hypothesis of stationarity is rejected only for Florida, Massachusetts, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Rhode Island, Texas indicating that only these states are non-convergent. Our overall results from club convergence (after club merging) show that USA states are forming 4 clubs. Our findings provide new insight into the convergence of CO2 emissions at the state level in the USA and thus have profound implications in terms of environmental policy setting and Per Capita Emission (PCE) allocations.

Heterogeneous effects of endogenous and foreign innovation on CO2 emissions stochastic convergence across China

Abstract This paper mainly explores the heterogeneous effects of endogenous and foreign innovation on convergence of CO2 emissions across China's 30 provinces from 2003 to 2017. The main academic contributions of this paper are as follows: convergence analysis of CO2 emissions in China is conducted by integrating the β-convergence and stochastic convergence, which can overcome the invalid inferences of conventional convergence. We also compare different effects of inward foreign direction investment (IFDI) versus outward foreign direction investment (OFDI) on CO2 emissions convergence. Quantile regression is employed in absolute and conditional β-convergence of CO2 emissions, which considers more detailed quantile distribution of different variables than traditional ordinary least squares regression. We also compare different convergence of CO2 emissions across China's East, Middle and West. According to the stochastic convergence, East China has the largest convergence rate, followed by Middle China; endogenous innovation decreased CO2 emissions in China. OFDI had negative effects on CO2 missions in China. It is important for Chinese firms to enhance endogenous green innovation capacity. It is imperative for Chinese government to increase reverse green technology spillover from OFDI.

The convergence of carbon dioxide emissions: a survey of the empirical literature

PurposeThis survey of the literature on the convergence of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions informs researchers on areas for future research by summarizing the countries examined, the types of convergence tested and the methodological approaches undertaken.Design/methodology/approachThis survey examines peer-reviewed empirical studies of CO2 emissions convergence with respect to country coverage and alternative approaches to test for various types of convergence.FindingsFor large multicountry studies, the support for convergence is quite limited. However, studies focused exclusively on a subset of countries defined by income classification, geographic region or institutional structure reveal the finding of convergence is more prevalent. Studies at the subnational level have primarily been in the cases of the US and China with the exception of two studies across industry sectors in Portugal and Sweden.Research limitations/implicationsThis study focuses exclusively on peer-reviewed published studies.Practical implicationsThis study is relevant to the design of mitigation strategies to reduce CO2 emissions and the assumption of convergence underlying climate change models.Social implicationsAs a major component of greenhouse gas emissions, CO2 emissions is of global importance in its impact on the environment and climate change.Originality/valueThis study provides the most recent and comprehensive survey of the empirical literature on the convergence of CO2 emissions.

Exploring carbon emissions and international inequality in a globalized world: A multiregional-multisectoral perspective

The phenomenon of economic convergence has been investigated from different perspectives, aiming to analyze whether economies move towards a common growth path or tend to diverge over time, and the consequences of this for economic cohesion. However, these consequences for the evolution of CO2 emissions in the study of global convergence of CO2 emissions, and the implications in terms of pollution, inequality, and income-dependence have received less attention in the literature of convergence. The increasing globalization of economies and the rising fragmentation of supply chains imply many countries involved in the production chains and, in consequence, a vision is needed of worldwide emissions associated with these processes. In this paper, we use the multisectoral and multiregional perspective provided by a multiregional input-output model (MRIO), and the associated databases, to analyze the evolution of inequality in CO2 emissions, paying attention to the roles played by regional specificities and/or productive structures. MRIO models and indicators presented, provide the basis to assess to what extent countries and/or sectors are walking towards a common path or, on the contrary, tend to be more unequal over time. Given the role that structure, final demands and international trade play in these models, we can offer a novel structural view of the convergence issue. Moreover, MRIO models also allow analyzing this question combining the perspectives of production and consumption, and their relationship through international trade. Moreover, our paper attempts to shed light on the discussion about the global and regional process of generation of emissions, paying special attention to cluster analysis and to the existence of common trends by groups of countries. Empirically, the information provided by the most recent edition of the World Input-Output Database (WIOD) and environmental accounts compatible with this database, is used. In our view, the results contribute new dimensions and insights to the issue of international inequality in terms of environmental pressures and opens new debates on the relocation of environmental damage, comparative advantage, and the environmental footprint.

Testing the stationarity and convergence of CO2 emissions series in MENA countries

PurposeThis study aims to investigate the stationarity and convergence of CO2 emissions series in MENA countries. The stationarity and unit root properties of per capita carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions series are explored by an increasing amount of studies, which use different methodologies. Examining the time series properties of energy and environmental series is crucial for both researchers and the policymakers, given the close link between energy, environment and the real economy. In fact, if energy exhibits the presence of a unit root, this suggests that this series does not revert to its equilibrium level after being hit by a shock.Design/methodology/approachThe contribution of this work is twofold. First, to the author’s knowledge, a very little attention has been paid to the topics of stationarity and convergence of CO2 emissions in the case of Middle East and North Africa (MENA) member states, especially in a panel context. Convergence analyses of CO2 emissions for MENA countries can improve the knowledge of energy and environmental scenario of the area, giving some ideas for appropriate future policies. Second, this is the first study that jointly analyzed time series and panel data properties of emissions series for these countries.FindingsThe author finds that relative per capita CO2 emissions in the 19 MENA countries are a mixture of I(0) and I(1) processes and there is a weak evidence to support the stationarity of CO2 emissions. After having verified the presence of cross-sectional dependence in the series, the panel unit root tests in presence of cross-section dependence show strong evidence in favor of non-stationarity. In addition, after performing tests for ß-convergence, it is also found that per capita CO2 emissions are converging on average in 11 out of 19 sample’s countries, while s-convergence analysis reveals that the variance of per capita CO2 emissions decreased over time, which is an indication of convergence.Originality/valueImportant policy implications emerge from the empirical results. Sustainable environmental and energy policies rely heavily on the CO2 series’ properties. In this regard, determining whether shocks to CO2 emissions are permanent or transitory is important for setting feasible goals for sustainable environmental policies. Given that per capita CO2 emissions are essentially associated with a quality of life, the issues of their reduction have been the leading agenda in energy and environmental management over the past two decades.

Convergence in CO 2 emissions, carbon footprint and ecological footprint: evidence from OECD countries.

The aim of this paper is to augment the existing literature on convergence of CO2 emissions, by adding carbon footprint per capita and ecological footprint per capita to the convergence debate. We use the residual augmented least squares regression to examine the stochastic convergence of the environmental indices in 27 OECD countries. Furthermore, in contrast to the previous studies which mainly used the conventional beta-convergence approach to examine conditional convergence, we use a beta-convergence method that is capable of identifying the actual number of countries that contribute to conditional convergence. The sigma-convergence of the environmental indices is also examined. The results suggest that conditional convergence exists in 12 countries for CO2 emissions per capita, 15 countries for carbon footprint per capita and also 13 countries for ecological footprint per capita. There is evidence for sigma-convergence for all the three indicators. The policy implications of the results are discussed in the body of the paper.

Convergence in CO2 emissions: A spatial economic analysis with cross-country interactions

This research analyzes the evolution of CO2 emissions per capita in a sample of 141 countries during the period 1970–2014. The study develops a spatially augmented Green Solow model by taking into consideration technological externalities and interdependence in the process of production, which ultimately implies that CO2 emissions in an economy are affected by the economic characteristics in neighboring countries. The empirical model predicts convergence in CO2 emissions among countries which is examined by means of modern dynamic spatial panel econometric techniques. The multimodal distribution of the CO2 emissions is consistent with the existence of three spatial clubs. The space-time dynamics of the three clubs are analyzed by means of the Local Directional Moran Scatterplot and spatial panel model with heterogeneous parameters. Our analysis reveals the hypothesis of spatial convergence clubs is more consistent with the data than the hypothesis of conditional convergence.

Electricity Consumption and Associated Risks in European Countries - Convergence Analysis

Demand for electricity increases with economic development. At the same time, it is expected to provide the cleanest energy. This paper attempts to analyze the convergence of electricity consumption in European countries, reduce transmission losses and reduce the pollution associated with it - CO2. In the presented research European states were taken into account. All countries and individual European Union and non-EU unions were analyzed. The study used descriptive statistics and B-Convergence analysis. The aim of the study was to compare changes in these variables in the EU Member States and non-affiliated countries. The results indicate in general terms the convergence of both energy consumption and CO2 emissions reduction. Specific studies indicate that non-EU countries have no convergence in terms of energy consumption and reduction in transmission losses. The only significant convergence of CO2 emissions concerns. This may be due to financial constraints that inhibit the efficiency of the tested energy systems.

Revisiting CO2 emissions convergence in G18 countries

ABSTRACTThis study revisits whether CO2 emissions converge in G18 countries over the period of 1950–2013. To work on this empirical analysis, we employ a more powerful quantile unit root test with per capita CO2 emissions. While conventional unit root tests fail to reject convergence in CO2 emissions in these G18 countries, quantile unit root test results demonstrate CO2 emissions converged in 5 of these G18 countries (i.e., Australia, Brazil, Canada, Germany, and India). Our empirical results have important policy implications for the governments of G18 countries to direct efficient and effective energy policies to reduce the CO2 emissions.

CHINA’S TARGET RESPONSIBILITY SYSTEM AND CONVERGENCE OF CO2 EMISSIONS

China has established and assigned target responsibilities for local officials in energy conservation and created an evaluation indicator, which is a key institutional arrangement that provides local officials with political incentives to promote carbon abatement policies. In this paper, we elaborate on the relationship between China’s target responsibility system and CO2 emissions using interprovincial panel data, grouping provinces into Eastern, Central and Western regions to compare China’s CO2 emissions convergence between the periods of the 10th Five-year Plan and the 11th Five-year Plan. The analysis indicates that the target responsibility system does not noticeably change local officials’ political incentives to engage in carbon abatement because the effect of the target responsibility system for energy conservation seems to be overshadowed by and subject to gross domestic product (GDP) growth targets. Against the backdrop of growing international pressure on climate change issues, this paper argues that China must include in the target responsibility system an indicator of absolute CO2 emissions reduction as a policy objective.