Carbon emissions convergence and determinant analysis: Evidence from ASEAN countries

Abstract

In this study, we aim to uncover the convergence pattern of carbon emissions and its determinants towards effective reduction policies. In particular, we contribute to the emissions convergence literature by examining convergence in CO2 emissions for a sample of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member states, spanning the period from 1960 to 2018. We adopt the log (t) club convergence approach and examine convergence patterns in total CO2 emissions as well as emissions disaggregated by sources. We focus on emissions emerging from coal, oil, natural gas and cement production. The findings from the full sample analysis reveal two sub-convergent clubs that reflect population size, geography, and energy demand. The disaggregated analysis by sources show that the sources of emissions significantly influence convergence behaviour across the ASEAN countries investigated. We find that the transition paths of emissions are more pronounced for oil, gas and cement production with a large number of non-converging states. To ascertain the reason behind this result, we examine the determinants of the convergence process. We detect that urbanization plays a vital role in the convergence path of carbon emissions and calls for urgent efforts to decarbonize urbanization-related infrastructure processes.